Click on the image to enlarge. The GFS model is back to prediction snow for Halloween. This is today’s run of the GFS model for Halloween (evening) and it’s got a 528 thickness and precipitation…that would likely be a mix of rain and snow. The European has partly cloudy skies and low 40s around 8 pm Halloween night. We’ll stick with that for right now. Also the CFSv2 model is forecasting a cool November.
Click on the image to enlarge. At noon, we have clouds generally east of US 131 and sunshine to the west. The cloud area will likely shrink some during the early-mid afternoon. The clouds helped to keep areas to the east a little above freezing this morning (low temps: 37 Coldwater, 35 Lansing), while clear areas dropped below freezing: (31 S. Haven, 29 Fremont, East G.R. Fennvile, Sparta…28 Hopkins, Hudsonville…27 Ludington, Belding and Kent City…26 Benton Harbor, Houghton Lake…25 Big Rapids…24 Reed City…23 Kalamazoo Nature Center…21 Cadillac, Baldwin).
Here’s the map that Jack linked to (The natice site appears to be down at the moment, so this will do fine) It shows the buildup of snowcover as of October 20 across the northern part of the Northern Hemisphere. The Rutgers Lab keeps track of N. Hemisphere snow cover and they reported that as of the end of September, this year ranks as #1 in 46 years of record in terms of snowcover on Sept. 30th for North America with 4.899 million sq. kilometers with snow on the ground. For Eurasia it was #8 of 46 years wtih 2,342 million sq. kilometers. For the combined N. Hemisphere it was 3rd highest in 46 years at 7.241 million sq. kilometers. It’s not just in one place, it’s everywhere – all around the N. Hemisphere. The latest analog years to the current pattern are mostly very cold and or very snowy: 1951-52, 1969-70, 1976-77, 2003-04, 2009-10, 2013-14). In the mix, we have the coldest winter of the past 110 years (1976-77), the snowiest winter ever (1951-52) and the 2nd winter ever (last winter). 1969-70 was Holland’s snowiest winter. The other two years had average snowfall (72.2″ in 09-10 and 74″ in 03-04). There is a good correlation between early snowcover in Siberia and cold winters in the Great Lakes. Remember, we have a weak El Nino, centered more toward the central Pacific and the warm pool south of Alaska that will work to keep the ridge there. The QBO is closest in value to 1976. Other notes. Corn is 87% mature, average is 97% – soybean harvest is at 30% last check -average is 78%. Honeycrisp apples are large this year and the apple crop is excellent quality this year – for some farms the best crop ever.
3 pm – The satellite loop shows skies clearing from north to south. Skies will be clear just about everywhere by sunset, setting us up for a cold night with scattered frost. Here’s the Point Betsie Lighthouse – pic. from Jack Martin. Cloudy, but mostly dry tonight. There’s a chance of a very light shower/sprinkle tonight and early tomorrow, mainly west of U.S. 131. We’ll gradually become partly sunny tomorrow…more sun late than in the AM. We’ll have a chance of frost both Tues. night and Weds. night. There’s just a slight chance of a light shower on Friday (only 30%). Temperatures moderate late in the week. We’ve got out high temps. in the low-mid 60s and partly to mostly sunny for Sat. and Sun. Monday could be th warmest day – approaching 70 with a chance of a shower (or isolated t-shower). The PNA goes negative, which should bring some rain (and snow in Cascades to northern Rockies) to the Pacific NW. The QBO is about as negative as I’ve ever seen it…the last time it was this low in October was 1976 (and that was followed by the coldest winter of the last 100 years in G.R.). The European weeklies keep us relatively mild into early Nov. Remember, it’s still fall – meteorological winter starts Dec. 1 and astronomical winter 3 weeks after that, so winter patterns often don’t lock in until late Nov./early Dec. LOTS of snow across Siberia and N. Canada already…another sign that this winter will be on the cold side in the Great Lakes.
Mostly cloudy skies to start Tuesday. The clouds will break up some from north to south during the PM. There could be a sprinkle or an isolated patch of mist. The most likely area to see that would be the SW corner of the state. We’ll be a little cooler today with aftn. temps. in the low 50s. Also – the remains of Gonzalo will give the U.K. and Ireland rain and wind gusts to 25-50 mph Mon. night and Tues. The temperature at Ulan Bator, Mongolia dropped to -9F this Monday AM. Check out this waterspout in Madeira.
Here’s three pics. taken by my daughter #2 (Marie). I’ll guess these are Allegan Co. The wind and rain knocked down some leaves…but we are about as close to peak color as we’re going to get. This looks like a mostly dry week. The models are printing out just a couple hundredths of an inch of rain on Monday/Monday night, then pretty much dry into next weekend. Temperatures start out a little colder than average today, then rise to near to even slightly above average. It’ll be nice to see more sunshine after a fairly cloudy week last week. It’ll be a good Sunday to pick up a pumpkin or some sweet Michigan apples (one of the biggest and best crops we’ve ever had).
Freeze pretty much everywhere in W. Michigan this AM: 32 Holland Airport, 30 Grand Rapids, Battle Creek, Coldwater, Fennville, 29 Lansing, Muskegon, Kalamazoo, Allendale, 28 Hudsonville, Grandville Charlotte, Sturgis, Fremont, Mt. Pleasant, 27 Marshall, Hastings, Albion, Alma, 26 Big Rapids, 25 Cadillac, 24 Kalamazoo Nature Center, 22 Leota, 21 Stambaugh (in the U.P.).
There is a Freeze Warning for Ottawa, Allegan, Van Buren, Kalamazoo, Cass, St. Joseph and Branch Counties plus much of Northern Indiana and Northwest Ohio. The NWS only issued the Freeze Warning for counties where large areas have not had frost yet. Other counties have had frost. It’ll be a cold start for the Grand Rapids Marathon with temperatures in the 30s. My daughter #3 will be doing the half marathon. At 10 pm it’s already 35 in Fremont and 39 in Kalamazoo. A light wind off the lake has Benton Harbor and S. Haven at 45 deg. At this hour, we have some thin high clouds moving from NW to SE across the area and we still have low lake-effect clouds moving north to south down Lake Michigan and across N. Indiana and NW Ohio. The band over Lake Michigan could move inland Sun. AM as the wind turns from NW to W and then SW. Sunday will be a dry day, but cool with PM temps. in the low 50s. There may be a passing light shower on Monday, but much of the week should be dry with temps. moderating to the low-mid 60s late in the week.
I’ll leave radar up with a few lingering showers. This is the 6th day in a row with at least a trace of rain. G.R. has had 4.28″ of rain this month and 33.9″ for the year. We’ve had just 5.8% sunshine over the last 5 days. At 3 pm, Grayling was reporting light snow and Bellaire “mixed precipitation”. They both have 40° dewpoints, so I’m very skeptical.
The overnight run of the NAM (car.) gives G.R. just 0.02″ of rain today and 0.04″ on Monday. We dip to 31 Sunday AM. The GFS-plot has 0.03″ today and 0.08″ Monday (then dry from Tues. to Sat. of next week. It now gives G.R. our first snow on 11/2 – again way too far out to put any stock in that. I’ve said I think we get more snow this Nov. than any Nov. since at least 2008 and maybe 2002.
8:45 pm – An American Eagle Plane that has arrived at the Ford Airport in G.R. from Dallas, Texas was held on the runway for about an hour. Three people on the plane had become ill. The plane was being surrounded with emergency vehicles. The three individuals were taken to a local hospital for evaluation. Stay with 24-Hour News 8 and www.woodtv.com for the latest.
8:45 pm – G.R. down to 51 degrees, Cadillac is 45°. Scattered light showers/rain across the area – no lightning now. We’re getting gusts to 20-30 mph. The cold air is coming down…wind gusts along the Lake Superior shoreline have been running 30-40 mph with temps. in the low 40s.