<–forecast for the Arctic Oscillation. In general, when the Arctic Oscillation is positive, it’s harder to get Arctic air into the Great Lakes (note how it was positive in September, negative in October and positive in November so far – matching the weather we had in those months in Michigan). When it’s negative, it’s easier to get Arctic air into the Great Lakes (click the link above). Look where most of the red lines (ensemble members) are headed for the start of December.   Bettles, AK so far today has had a high of -39F and a low of -47F  That’s 40 deg. colder than average.  For the last 3 days they are 39 below average.

The weather looks for all the weekend football games and parades.  We’ll see high temperatures in the low 50s (could even make mid-50s with a little more sunshine) and light winds.  There could be a little early morning fog.  The 41st Grand Rapids Santa Claus Parade starts at 9 AM (a little earlier than past years).  I’ll be in the 16th Hudsonville Holiday Parade in Hudsonville.  That starts from the Pinnacle Center at 10 AM.   They usually have free coffee/hot chocolate, cookies and donut holes for everyone after the parade at the firehouse.  The 30th Battle Creek Holiday Parade begins at 5:40 PM (so it’s dark enough to see all the lights in the parade.  This is the start of the International Festival of Lights in Battle Creek.  The parade has 110 entries.  We have high school playoff games on Saturday.  We’ll have all your local teams covered with Football Frenzy.  The winners get a trip to Ford Field, where it’ll be unusual to actually watch a Michigan team win there.  Grand Valley has a 1 PM home playoff match against the Hillsdale Chargers, the only team to beat them (barely) this season.  I’ll be there for that game.    The Wolverines host #9 ranked Ohio State.   I’m sure they’d rather it was a rematch against mighty Delaware St.  The Wolverines have only a 3-point win against Indiana to show for the Big Ten Season.  The Spartans face a challenge as Penn St. pays a visit.  At least MSU is headed to a bowl game.  Then we have the Detroit Lions.  Both the Lions and Cleveland are 1-8, so the good news is that one of them will get a win.  I figure the game will still be 0-0 in the 4th quarter.  The Lions will tire out and just plain quit – walk off the field.  Eight plays later, Cleveland will score and win the game 6-0.  In any case, they’ll be a lot of empty seats at Ford Field and the weather will be nice, so I bet a lot of people skip the Lions and head outside.

<–click the picture twice to enlarge.   This is the 12Z (Friday AM) GFS for Thanksgiving Day.  If this is right…much of West Michigan is going to have a White Thanksgiving!   We’re around -11 at 850mb (about a mile above the ground).  You can see the green indicating some lake-effect going on.  An East Coast storm moving north will keep the north flow going over the NE U.S.  We’re definitely losing the 50-degree air.  The European is not as cold and would just have rain showers for Thanksgiving Day.  If you like it mild…enjoy the weekend.

 The second chapter in the “Twilight” saga – “New Moon” is good, but not as good as the first chapter (“Twilight”).   Sorry to say it, but this franchise may have lost its charm and become too big… with too many hands in this project to come out the way fans and non-fans may be hoping for.

Lets get this out of the way right now — fans should SEE IT – you may only be a little disappointed.  MY WIFE LOVED IT but she had a few minor issues with this movie.  Non-fans should wait for the excitement to die down or WAIT TO  RENT…. or you may be doubly disappointed with fighting the crowds and seeing a less than stellar offering.   Let me tell you why, without spoilers….

  (My spoiler-free review)

By now, most of us know the story: teen girl (Bella) crushes on teen-looking vampire (Edward, who is actually 100+ years old).  Now with “New Moon”, this “Twilight” love gets the third leg in its triangle… as good friend Jacob (West Michigan native Taylor Lautner) starts to become more than just a good pal due to the circumstances of this chapter.

This growing love interest with Jacob adds to the themes of Love, Forbidden Love, Love Lost, Sacrifice, Tough Choices and more Forbidden Love…. and then more Tough Choices.

I guess Bella can’t catch a break.  First its Forbidden Love with a vampire and the whole teen anxst thing… now its on to another Forbidden/awkward level… why can’t she just date a normal guy… with no superpowers or immortality?  Because that would be boring.  And the references to Romeo and Juliet laid out early in this one wouldn’t make sense now would they?

But as this new chapter’s pieces all begin to unfold (and there are a lot of storylines to keep track of)…. its clear that not all is good for the happy couple… including Bella now worried about growing old like normal people.

The movie makes a clear distinction between Bella’s two love interests both in personality and physique… but its a labor going through the two hours she takes to come to a decision.   The visual journey isn’t easy either – with one close-up after another and tracking camera moves around Bella … its like a director with a budget and tools he never had before.

Most of those storylines do make sense in the end… but the journey through this love story/fantasy adventure is a lot of mushy, over-the-top moments that we know these good young actors can do better at… we saw it in some scenes here… but not in others. 

There’s more effects and long exhaustive camera movements with blaring music than actual character development.   More time is spent in the second half of the movie with the male leads removing their shirts and being objectified by Bella… than actually digging deeper into their characters… they are just moved along a storyline… in the same fashion and mostly the same acting as the first.  We expect more from a sequel since the main characters are established, we should be getting more into who they are and why.

Its good that all the effects support the story, and are not just done because the fillmakers have a bigger budget.    There are also nice little moments of humor – some only fans will get – that break up a lot of the tension and overall gloominess of the film.

West Michigan can be proud of Hudsonville native Taylor Lautner who does a good job with what he has to work with and succesfully pulls off the change in his character… Jacob is the only character that really gets much development this time around.   In “New Moon”, Lautner begins to seperate himself as a strong character and actor apart from his mopey screen companions that mostly do the same thing they did in “Twilight” – look young and inexperienced and unpolished… acceptable in the first movie… not this time around.

The supporting cast gets a little to work with including more for Ashley Greene’s “Alice” character… and respectable fare from Michael Sheen who plays a powerful vampire with limited screen time.

THE BOTTOM LINE:

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<–click the image twice to enlarge.  This is a graph of various forecasts for El Nino 3.4 (3.4 refers to a geographic region along the Equatorial Pacific).  As we thought, the consensus of the models has the El Nino peaking in about early December and then trending downward.  So, this will not be a blow-out El Nino like 1982-83 or 1997-98.  We are going to get some cold and snow going here in the Great Lakes.  November is now 5.2 deg. warmer than average and Lake Michigan is still relatively warm.  The last day cooler than average in Grand Rapids was Nov. 6.  But the cold air is lurking in the far north.  Bettles, AK had a HIGH temperature of -38F yesterday.  That was a staggering 43 degrees colder than their average high temperature.

I was very happy to hear that after 76 seasons, the Lions have FINALLY decided to honor the teams greatest players with a new  ”wall of fame”  known as the “Pride of the Lions”.  The inaugural class of 12 hall of famers will have their names, numbers and service years displayed on the wall inside Ford Field that was once the old Hudson Warehouse.

I was also very DISAPPOINTED to hear that the Lions chose to finally do so:   in the midst of some of the WORST skids in NFL history (2-31, 32-105),  in the middle of another DREADFUL 1-8 season, during halftime of a game that will probably be BLACKED OUT from TV  in the Detroit, Lansing and Flint markets,  and most importantly, in front of what will probably be, THOUSANDS of EMPTY SEATS.

Either the Lions didn’t consider how embarrassing it will be for both the franchise and the players it’s honoring, to have such an important dedication in front of thousands of empty seats or they did so simply to help sell tickets to a battle between the two WORST teams in the league.  Although the latter seems to be working, (as of this writing there were less than 10,000 seats available) in either case, it’s wrong and  inexcusable.  This event should be held a time of optimism and in front of a guaranteed sell out crowd so fans at home could watch on TV as well.  In other words, for the Lions…. opening day.

I’ve been a diehard Lions fan for more than 40 years now and always will be…. but sometimes they make you wonder why.

As I write this at 10:30 AM on Thursday AM, there are a couple hundred geese in Nick’s soybean field across from my house.  There’s still a little standing water out there and they are happily splashing around and gleaning what’s left.  We have some breaks in the clouds right now, but the upper low will come over us this PM (link is daytime satellite loop), so it’ll stay generally cloudy.  Here’s the latest surface weather map and West Michigan radar. The overnight GFS plots have it snowing here Thanksgiving Day.  I’m now getting pretty confident we’ll see measurable snow in the 2nd half of next week.  We should set a new record in G.R. for latest first flakes (current record is 11/26/1902).

“New Moon” tickets selling fast, if you missed out, I have 1 set to giveaway to a fan

Celebration! Cinemas has sold more than 13,300 tickets for “New Moon” and 60 auditoriums are already sold out for midnight shows (13,389 as of 5pm Wednesday).   500 tickets were sold Wednesday from 9:00am-5:00pm.

Last year, “Twilight” midnight shows sold 6,285 tickets sold and 20 auditoriums sold out.   That’s getting close to the current record holder for Celebration! Cinemas: “Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince” sold 14,644 tickets and sold out 69 auditoriums.

If you don’t have tickets yet, here’s your chance….

I have one (1) set of three (3) tickets to tonight’s “New Moon” show at 12:20am tonight (11/20/09) at Celebration! Cinema North in Grand Rapids. Winner must comment on Laff at the Movies Facebook Fan page and will be notified by email/phone.  Winner must be able to pick up the set of tickets from WOODTV offices by 5:00pm today (11/19/09).

Go to Facebook for details: http://www.facebook.com/pages/Laff-at-the-Movies/166412513994

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<-click the graphic twice to enlarge.  The anemometer on top of Sheep Mt. in Alaska recorded a gust to 186 mph on 11/14.  The storm that produced that gust also brought the wind to 95 mph at Cape Spencer and 87 mph at Eldred Rock.   The world record fastest non-tornadic wind gust is 231 mph on top of Mt. Washington in New Hampshire in April 1934.  The fastest wind gust officially in Grand Rapids was 80 mph in the Armistice Day Storm of Nov. 1940.  However, we think wind gusts reached 125-130 mph in both Walker and Grand Haven/Spring Lake during the famous 5/31/98 derecho thunderstorm. The fastest wind anywhere in the world in 1956 was during the Hudsonville tornado of April 3, 1956.  The tornado was rated F5 on the Fujita Scale with winds over 260 mph.  A portable Doppler radar indicated a wind of over 300 mph about 100 feet off the ground in the Moore, Oklahoma tornado of May 3, 1999.