Winter in the north
October 17th, 2008 at 1:29 pm by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog
<–webcam from Whistler’s Mountain in western Canada. Winter has come to a significant portion of North America. About 4% of the lower 48 states now has snow on the ground (including locations in 13 states out west), and snow cover is building up north. Barrow, Alaska has about a foot of snow on the ground already. Measurable snow fell in Barrow on 16 of the first 17 days of the month. Fairbanks has three inches of snow on the ground. So far this October, Fairbanks is nearly five degrees cooler than average. Anchorage, on the south coast of Alaska, is having one of the coldest years in its history. The Alaska glaciers grew this year for the first time since the 1940s. Anchorage has been nearly four degrees colder than average in October. The town of Alert in northern Canada reports an average temperature so far this month of +2°F. Often the polar air hits West Michigan about one month after it builds up in the Arctic.
I didn’t want to be first here..
You beat rumrunner
Soon the shouts of “Toro! Toro! Toro! will echo throughout the land as we fire up our snowblowers.
Another tease from Bill, but still no Winter Forecast….
They can keep it! YUCK!
Yes…I hope this means some snow will be on its way sometime in the near future…I’m ready!
Not ready for snow here! Just warming up to fall to be honest!
With the price of oil taking a dive, I wonder if that will mean good news on our gas bills this winter.
I know that some of the forcasters are guessing for a colder then average winter, but for all of the cold lovers out there its now official (the official NWS) long range guess for the upcoming winter is now in and no surprise they are calling for above average temps and average precipitation:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=3
How long has it been sense the NWS has made a long range winter guess of normal or below normal winter temps in the mid west great lakes area? then again how often have they been right? SlimJim
Here is the NOV-DEC-JAN Long Range Forecast
Graphics:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1
Discussion:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus05.html
Mike
My hundreds of weather links web site
http://geukesweather.blogspot.com
November Monthly Outlook
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/
Prognostic Discussion for Monthly Outlook
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus07.html
SNOW! Bring it on! Yes when does Bill’s Winter Forecast come out?
I’m ready for the Winter and the cold. Is it close to us now?
Dan
One year ago today we had the Williamston tornado. I remember leaving bowling in Holland right after getting nailed by a hail storm, and trying to keep up with the storm, chasing it to as far as Ravenna.
I hope this works.. these are pictures i took last weekend..this is my favorite time of the year..
http://s283.photobucket.com/albums/kk317/countrygirl_57/?albumview=slideshow
TODAY IS BEAUTIFUL!
Oh yes I did beat Rumrunner.. AH HA! LOL
Nice puffy Cumulus out there today too =)
Mike you have a lot of stuff on your site, however I found that various links do not work, or the page has moved etc.
Nice page!
Good Day,
So Bill… corect me if I am wrong, but are we to interpret your comment on artic air as to arrive in about a month as in mid -November? Call me curious… hehe.
Steelie
global warming??? schobal morming????? HAHA!! GO SPARTANS!
I expect a significant temperature drop after November 4th when the elections are over and the “hot air” supply tapers off for a couple of months.
Sure sounds like “Global Warming” is taking hold.
I can’t wait for the first snowflakes!
Joe Bastardi is calling for a period of predominantly colder than normal weather from now right through Christmas. Not colder ALL of the time, just more below normal weather than above normal weather.
It is common at this time of the year……..when we lose hours of daylight, the arctic cold air builds up north and when that air can stay up north no longer………..SWOOSH! BAMM! CRASH!…..the air comes spilling into the lower 48 states………and we go from a high of 40 degrees to a bone chilling 5 above……BRRRRRRRRRRR.
Unrelated:
Last year was the Killer Tornado in Ingham County
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=grr&storyid=18693&source=0
Mike
Lansing, MI
Anyone else noticed the flashing light in the sky to the Northeast of Caledonia this evening around 9:00PM? I was driving out by 84th and Patterson and it looked like lightning…but there was nothing on the radar at all! Weird.
Beth,
those falls pic’s were awesome, I love the one of the water and trees, that lake water looks like glass..
Nice morning today. Getting ready to pick up the first “installment” of leaves.
The folks at NOAA are saying it’s been much warmer than usual this autumn in the arctic:
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/
I guess it depends on who you ask.
this is off the topic b93 cares for kids starts on tuesday i will be helping out their some place dont know where but i will be thier
it’s been a wonderful weekend…bonfires every night and morning…
looking at the cpc’s outlook, looks chilly!
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif
cold backside to that storm for mid week
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif
still looking very interesting just before halloween..
Bob that long range guess probably will warm tomorrow when the forecasters get in there and “read” the data. At least I hope so….
Steve I guess it Alaska is not part of the arctic, really not sure what to make of that. It must have been warmer everywhere except where it was colder…of course it me it looks like it may have been colder where some people live and warmer where no one lives….
a nice late October day today sunny and 61° here there may be very few left this fall so enjoy…SlimJim
yes sir Jim,
we will see.(I know the weekends are computer generated)..the models show it cooler inbetween passage of fronts, but wasnt thinking as cool as the cpc…but I like it..
Hmm, good thing it’s not the temps, but the winds that effect Arctic ice. Arctic ice extent is up 31% over last year…
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Extent.png
I guess Obama is ALREADY fixing that whole global warming problem. Thank goodness!!!
Just speeding through….
It was a nice day today.. Just wanted to say..
On a politics note.. I am almost on board with Obama
On a side note.. I have been busy lately…
Have a good night everyone chat later….
Beautiful out today! Enjoyed the weather, Thanks Bill! I know you didn’t really have anything to do with it. You guys sure get the credit when its nice though right.
Charles…wait stop do your research on Obama. Check into all the other news outlets, not just the liberal controlled media. You need to make up your own mind..Go to Fox News for one source.
I’m not telling you who to vote for, nor is the correct forum but you brought up Obama. All I’m asking is PLEASE, PLEASE check it out and don’t let the Liberal Media decide for you! Its your right to vote WHO YOU think is the right person. Thats all I’m going to say.
Have a great night.
Dan
I dont think we get thunderstorms this time of year but I have been seeing flashes in the sky on the way home. I haven’t seen any since I got home about 5 minutes ago but I did see some. Strange!
Unrelated to winter weather
Some reports of pea-size hail tonight in Northern Michigan,
also some lightning is being reported.
http://www.woodtv.com/Global/story.asp?S=3208011
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
750 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2008
.SYNOPSIS…/ISSUED AT 750 PM/
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN INCREASING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN/
NORTHERN LOWER MI THROUGHOUT THE EVENING…WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT AND SOME QG FORCING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR/NORTHWEST WI ACTING IN CONCERT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS…WITH QUITE A FEW REPORTS OF PEA SIZED HAIL WITHIN
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EASTWARD…
BUT SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THIS LINE STARTING TO HOOK UP WITH SOME
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER FAR NORTHERN IA/SOUTHERN WI. THIS LINE OF
REFLECTIVITY COULD CONCEIVABLY BE THE MAIN SHOW FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT IF IT CONTINUES TO EXPAND EAST INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER
MI…THOUGH ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED WITH THE UPSTREAM
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK.
HAVE TRIED TO ADD SOME TEMPORAL DETAIL TO THE GRIDS…PARTICULARLY
SOUTH OF M-32 GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS. WILL BE MAKING FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
THROUGH THE EVENING BASED ON TRENDS AND 00Z UPPER AIR DATA.
Mike
http://geukesweather.blogspot.com
From the NWS Grand Rapids Office
.SHORT TERM…(817 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2008)
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
WE HAVE UPDATED THE FCST TO PUSH UP THE TIMING OF PCPN…AND
INCREASE POPS A BIT FOR ROUGHLY THE NRN 2/3RDS OF THE CWFA BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. WE HAVE ALSO ADDED AN ISOLATED MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR THE NW COUNTIES DUE TO PROXIMITY OF LIGHTNING JUST NORTH
OF THE CWFA BORDER.
BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER RESULTING FROM THETA E
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND RESULTING FGEN WAS STAYING NORTH OF
THE CWFA THROUGH ABOUT AN HOUR AGO. IT LOOKED LIKE THE MAIN WAVE WAS
GOING TO SLIP BY WITHOUT MOST OF THE NRN COUNTIES SEEING MUCH WITH
DRY LOW LEVELS REMAINING. HOWEVER THE PCPN HAS BEEN BACKBUILDING
ACROSS THE LAKE…AND NOW IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE NW SECTION
OF THE CWFA. MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE LAKE IS LIKELY ASSISTING IN SOME
CAPACITY.
Mike
Seeing lightning to the north from Allegan, and those showers are a ways off.