Comments on: Winter in the north

By: LightningWatcher

LightningWatcher — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 00:40:40 +0000

Seeing lightning to the north from Allegan, and those showers are a ways off.

By: Mike

Mike — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 00:29:10 +0000

From the NWS Grand Rapids Office
.SHORT TERM…(817 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2008)
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
WE HAVE UPDATED THE FCST TO PUSH UP THE TIMING OF PCPN…AND
INCREASE POPS A BIT FOR ROUGHLY THE NRN 2/3RDS OF THE CWFA BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. WE HAVE ALSO ADDED AN ISOLATED MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR THE NW COUNTIES DUE TO PROXIMITY OF LIGHTNING JUST NORTH
OF THE CWFA BORDER.

BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER RESULTING FROM THETA E
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND RESULTING FGEN WAS STAYING NORTH OF
THE CWFA THROUGH ABOUT AN HOUR AGO. IT LOOKED LIKE THE MAIN WAVE WAS
GOING TO SLIP BY WITHOUT MOST OF THE NRN COUNTIES SEEING MUCH WITH
DRY LOW LEVELS REMAINING. HOWEVER THE PCPN HAS BEEN BACKBUILDING
ACROSS THE LAKE…AND NOW IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE NW SECTION
OF THE CWFA. MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE LAKE IS LIKELY ASSISTING IN SOME
CAPACITY.

Mike

By: Mike

Mike — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 00:26:09 +0000

Unrelated to winter weather

Some reports of pea-size hail tonight in Northern Michigan,
also some lightning is being reported.
http://www.woodtv.com/Global/story.asp?S=3208011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
750 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS…/ISSUED AT 750 PM/

PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN INCREASING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN/
NORTHERN LOWER MI THROUGHOUT THE EVENING…WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT AND SOME QG FORCING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR/NORTHWEST WI ACTING IN CONCERT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS…WITH QUITE A FEW REPORTS OF PEA SIZED HAIL WITHIN
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EASTWARD…
BUT SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THIS LINE STARTING TO HOOK UP WITH SOME
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER FAR NORTHERN IA/SOUTHERN WI. THIS LINE OF
REFLECTIVITY COULD CONCEIVABLY BE THE MAIN SHOW FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT IF IT CONTINUES TO EXPAND EAST INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER
MI…THOUGH ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED WITH THE UPSTREAM
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK.
HAVE TRIED TO ADD SOME TEMPORAL DETAIL TO THE GRIDS…PARTICULARLY
SOUTH OF M-32 GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS. WILL BE MAKING FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
THROUGH THE EVENING BASED ON TRENDS AND 00Z UPPER AIR DATA.

Mike
http://geukesweather.blogspot.com

By: Jennifer K (NE GR/GR and Rockford border)

Jennifer K (NE GR/GR and Rockford border) — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 00:24:54 +0000

I dont think we get thunderstorms this time of year but I have been seeing flashes in the sky on the way home. I haven’t seen any since I got home about 5 minutes ago but I did see some. Strange!

By: Dan (Byron Center 84th/131)

Dan (Byron Center 84th/131) — Sun, 19 Oct 2008 23:48:46 +0000

Beautiful out today! Enjoyed the weather, Thanks Bill! I know you didn’t really have anything to do with it. You guys sure get the credit when its nice though right.
Charles…wait stop do your research on Obama. Check into all the other news outlets, not just the liberal controlled media. You need to make up your own mind..Go to Fox News for one source.
I’m not telling you who to vote for, nor is the correct forum but you brought up Obama. All I’m asking is PLEASE, PLEASE check it out and don’t let the Liberal Media decide for you! Its your right to vote WHO YOU think is the right person. Thats all I’m going to say.
Have a great night.
Dan

By: Charles Russell - (Fisk Knob, MI)

Charles Russell - (Fisk Knob, MI) — Sun, 19 Oct 2008 23:19:00 +0000

Just speeding through….

It was a nice day today.. Just wanted to say..

On a politics note.. I am almost on board with Obama

On a side note.. I have been busy lately…

Have a good night everyone chat later….

By: michael g (SE GR)

michael g (SE GR) — Sun, 19 Oct 2008 21:26:01 +0000

I guess Obama is ALREADY fixing that whole global warming problem. Thank goodness!!!

By: Mike M.

Mike M. — Sun, 19 Oct 2008 21:00:10 +0000

Hmm, good thing it’s not the temps, but the winds that effect Arctic ice. Arctic ice extent is up 31% over last year…

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Extent.png

By: Bob P. :o) (St.Johns)

Bob P. :o) (St.Johns) — Sun, 19 Oct 2008 20:58:56 +0000

yes sir Jim,
we will see.(I know the weekends are computer generated)..the models show it cooler inbetween passage of fronts, but wasnt thinking as cool as the cpc…but I like it..

By: Jim L (NW GR)

Jim L (NW GR) — Sun, 19 Oct 2008 20:31:31 +0000

Bob that long range guess probably will warm tomorrow when the forecasters get in there and “read” the data. At least I hope so….
Steve I guess it Alaska is not part of the arctic, really not sure what to make of that. It must have been warmer everywhere except where it was colder…of course it me it looks like it may have been colder where some people live and warmer where no one lives….
a nice late October day today sunny and 61° here there may be very few left this fall so enjoy…SlimJim