Bill’s Winter Forecast
November 13th, 2008 at 2:14 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
<—blizzard of ‘78. Check back on the blog late this afternoon/evening. I’ll be posting my winter forecast. In the meantime, make sure the snow shovel, snow blower/thrower, and plow are all set to rock and roll…send the link to your friends to have them check back in this evening. I’ll have a package on the upcoming winter on the 6 PM news tonight on WOOD-TV.
Bob, I think you are right.. I did feel the gorund.. if we get 6-12 Inches of snow.. I think that not all the snow will melt but some.. with this cold air and a blanket of WET snow.. it will freexe the ground QUICK!! Expect school DELAYS/CLOSINGS for Monday.. Im known for the SCHOOL CLOSING prediction person in my school!! lol http://participate.woodtv.com/blogs/bbpp15 visit here on SUNDAY PM!! Ill have predictions for all the schools!!!
Brennan,
it’s true the ground can “freeze” quickly, especially with a super cold air mass and accumilate snow…quick example was Gaylord this past sun/mon..10″s, but it was a slushy mess…
Now as far as 6 to 12 in of snow, I wouldnt rule that out as a total accum for the period Sat thru Tuesday, especially along the lake shores..and especially if that air mass on Sunday night makes it’s in with a bullseye!
Hey Bob P,
I love this time of year! Here go the major blog entries, a storm of this magnitude would be absolutely unheard of for this time of year in MI. Remember now though, that last weekend in S Dakota there was never a prediction for many feet of snow like feel in deadwood and places like that. What an absolute mess and Mayhem that would create. IT WOULD BE AWESOME!! I can’t imagine Deer Hunting in that though! WHEW what a chore that would be!
Charles, r u out there? Seems like with this crazy talk going on that you would be here to bring us all back to reality!! Cmon bro make an appearance!
Bob, Im liking what you have to say.. As a junior in High School Studying weather is the best thing to do! Im in a class right now studying WINTER WEATHER. My prediction for the (STORM)
Lakeshore- 11″
KENT/NEWAYGO/MONTCALM/IONIA – 7″
“UP” MICHIGAN – 9.5″
“IN” BOARDER – 5.3″
http://participate.woodtv.com/blogs/bbpp15
SO True Dale P…they did get hammered out there…that was awesome..
The models did predict the storm, just not the intensity…
if we started getting these type of storms this time of year would put most of the folks who hate winter into a coma..LOL
Bill’s forecast is here
http://blogs.woodtv.com/2008/11/13/bills-winter-forecast-2/
He hasn’t put it in his Blog yet but it is in the entire blog entry listing.
Im just a skeptic, when the models flip flop
Just as Jim S said earlier his quote below, about the models and thier eastward or westward trends…last year was awesome for the most part for us away from the lake. By the way Jim S. welcome back, havent seen you on in a while.
“Jim S Says:
November 13th, 2008 at 12:22 pm
Well, looking at the big picture…the NAM has had it the last 3 runs. The GFS only showed it on the 06Z runs. Last year, the trend was similar when the GFS would show a storm, move it east, and then the storm would materialize further west than anticipated. I’ll keep holding out hope for now.
^ His winter forecast
Hey guys, I think we will for sure have some snow later this weekend. I’m looking forward to it. Getting new tires tomorow. So bring it on!!
Brennan,
here is what the GRR is saying for this storm..
INITIALLY…GFS HAD A FAIRLY
WRAPPED UP LOW MOVING THROUGH THE DETROIT/TOLEDO REGION WHICH WOULD
HAVE PAINTED SOME DECENT SNOWS FOR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE 12Z RUN OF THE NAM FOLLOWED SUIT. JUST AS
CONFIDENCE WAS BUILDING IN REGARD TO THIS SCENARIO…THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN CAME IN WITH A MUCH FLATTER…PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM. THE
SHORTWAVE OF CONCERN IS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS MANITOBA AT THIS
POINT. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG JET ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES…WE
ARE BUYING INTO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE EURO/GFS SOLUTION. THIS WILL
MEAN SOME SNOW ON SATURDAY…BUT NOT THE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
THAT THE MODELS WERE INDICATING EARLIER. STILL A WIDE RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS…SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR…BUT TRENDS ARE NOT ON
THE SIDE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWS AT THIS POINT.
Bob does this mean we wont get a lot of snow? Or will the models change in time that we will get a lot?
UPDATED PREDICTIONS
Lakeshore- 7″
KENT/NEWAYGO/MONTCALM/IONIA – 4″
“UP” MICHIGAN – 6″
“IN” BOARDER – 9″
SO THE BOTTOM LINE IS OUR BEST SHOT FOR LES WILL COME MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT… MAINLY IN OUR NW TO NNW FLOW SNOW BELT REGIONS.
GIVEN THIS TYPE OF SYNOPTIC SETUP THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS IN THAT TIME FRAME AT THIS POINT WE ARE PREDICTING SNOW AS MUCH AS 12″ IN THE GRAND RAPIDS AND LOWER PENINSULA . A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE SFC RIDGING AND
NORTHERLY FLOW DRIES THINGS OUT.
THE PERSISTENT H5 TROUGH AND COLD AIR IS WILL LIFT OUT BY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER RETURNING WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY LEAD TO SOME MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR AND SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS IS ANTICIPATED LATE NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COMES IN FOR THURSDAY BRINGING THE MIDWEST A SHOT OF COOLER AIR AND SIGNIFICANT SNOW
Here is a map I do not believe at all.
NAM, is going wild with this for snowfall, I have
no idea of the accuracy of this, from looking at these
maps over the last couple of years, seems to predict
snowfall amounts at times, to outrageous amounts.
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_12HRACCUMSNOW_60HR.gif
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL_60HR.gif
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
400 PM EST THU NOV 13 2008
DAY 2…
MIDWEST/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES…
DEEPENING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND COLD COMMA-HEAD PRECIPITATION
SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON DAY2. BEST
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
TO ALIGN ALONG A BROAD BUT FAST-MOVING AXIS OF H85-H5
FRONTOGENESIS SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE IOWA/ILLINOIS
BORDER…ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TO CENTRAL LAKE HURON BY THE END OF
DAY 2. HPC CONSENSUS IS TO FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS OF THE
ECMWF…ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED AREAS OF 4 INCH SNOWFALLS OVER
CENTRAL ILLINOIS…NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif
For tornado data for West Michigan, that is up on my website.
Mike
Fred.
where do you see the part about 12″ ???
Easy Fred – it’s only the middle of November. There are NOT going to be any heavy snow totals (12 inches) this weekend in the LP of Michigan. I like your enthusiasm though!
Im all about the storm for Nov 21/22nd..
Im thinking that may be th e start…not that Im overlooking this Mon/Tues event…
Bob – we all know your addiction to the “white stuff”, and your allegiance to the science. I always respect your forecasts.
This is so cool being back in Winter forecast mode!!!!!
I agree Craig. Ive been waiting since when the snow stopped.
me addicted…..huh?
Craig..
I cant wait, for the first 6″ storm..LOL
True Craig, it feels good to be back in ”
winter” mode.
Get the Master Bill, Kevin W ,Cort S, Jim S (alreay back on) Mark, SlimJim, Charles, yourself and the rest back in for model analysis and Im ready..
this is the earliest Ive been excited about snows in a while..
Pace yourself, Bob. We don’t want to get out of the chute too early. The snow gods don’t like that (nor the phillies) tee hee
agreed Craig,
afterall, I know the stats..
St.Johns only averages 2″s a year in Nov…so I know not to get all hyper excited..
but I always think what if this was different year, “the Year”..LOL
Like Nov 1898, here in St.Johns…32.5″ , Im sure the rest of the year was below average…since our biggest year was 76.8″ in 51-52
although, since 1997 our Nov average hase been 13″, but when you use the stats since 1894 to 2004, its a mere 2.4″
Im thinking the Nov average data I have is not correct…a average of 13″ in st.johns is not possible, better get a better calculator…LOL its about 2.7″
You’re out or control, Bob! Is there anything Mary can do for that?
send her a email Craig,, tell her I need help..LOl
Bob – I know I’m pretty “slow”, being male and all, yet I am pretty darn sure she already knows you need help!
hey guys im back from work/my dads house…any updates on the storm?
The storm is looking too far east to affect us much. The lake effect behind it could be nice. GFS is just rolling in now.
yea it look impressive earlier Jim
howw do you all keep in contact with the NWS
Just looked at the new GFS and it has pretty much lost the idea of a big storm anywhere around here. The NAM still shows an impressive storm for the southeast part of the state. Looks like we’ll have to count on lake effect this time.
i have a feeling its gonna b like last winter..all the snowstorms will go SE of here
Latest WRF-NMM, keeps precipitation, south of a line from
Benton Harbor, Grand Rapids, Saginaw for Saturday during the
day.
It all depends on our freezing level too. It could just end up being rain snow mix for the entire event, then snow dwindling down to flurries until the wrap around moves out of our area. Not feeling this storm yet, but here in a couple weeks… should be pretty interesting.
I was a senior in high school for the Blizzard of 78. It was a good storm. Just about everyone here in Hastings was snowed in. It’s been awhile since we had a good blizzard. This coming Monday, my wife and I have plans to go to the Ann Arbor area, for couple of days. I hope the storm will not stop us from going. Sounds like the west Michigan will get hit the hardest. I got a good van with real good tires.
we’ll just have to look at the runs tomorrow morning for the latest..im going to try to get off…goodnight!
i know this is a heck of long way out but lookie lookie http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_336l.gif
“i have a feeling its gonna b like last winter..all the snowstorms will go SE of here”
Are you kidding? We got more synoptic snow than lake effect last year, and more total snow than any other year on record but one.
Not much on the GFS, except for this, the model will change on the next run
I do not trust the models past 5 days, I do not even trust the models
for day 1 to day 5.
November 27 GFS Forecast 324 Hours, 336 Hours
http://www.wxcaster.com/CONUS_GFS2P5_1000-500_SLPPRPTHK_324HR.gif
http://www.wxcaster.com/CONUS_GFS2P5_WINTER_CRITICALTHK_324HR.gif
http://www.wxcaster.com/CONUS_GFS2P5_1000-500_SLPPRPTHK_336HR.gif
http://www.wxcaster.com/CONUS_GFS2P5_WINTER_CRITICALTHK_336HR.gif
Mike
Not much on the GFS, except for this
http://www.wxcaster.com/CONUS_GFS2P5_1000-500_SLPPRPTHK_336HR.gif
http://www.wxcaster.com/CONUS_GFS2P5_WINTER_CRITICALTHK_336HR.gif
Mike
Latest Statement from HPC about the weekend snow chances.
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
315 AM EST FRI NOV 14 2008
GREAT LAKES TO APPALACHIANS..WHILE THE BULK OF THE PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN…INCREASINGLY COLD TEMPS ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES SAT AFTN AND NIGHT.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER ERN LOWER MI AND ADJACENT NRN IN/OH BEFORE THE CIRC QUICKLY DEPARTS SAT NIGHT. STRONG COLD ADV THEREAFTER WILL INITIATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND FROM EACH OF THE LAKES..
A REINFORCING SHRTWV IS FCST TO REACH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA DURING D3 WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING FROM NRN MN TO WI/MI.
Visit my blog to find links to my other weather blogs.
http://participate.woodtv.com/blogs/meso2cyclone/
Mike
Looks like a possibility of 1 to 3 inches over this way, unless the low tracks even further east. A couple of inches of snow for deer season would be awesome!
Good Luck Craig…..oh and Good Luck Hunting too!..LOL
“ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AN INCH OR
TWO IS POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM OWOSSO TO FRANKENMUTH TO
BAD AXE WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO THREE INCHES.” NWS-White Lake
Thanks Bob! Always the funny guy, aren’t ya? LOL
Thats me Craig, the goofy hillbilly!
whats the winds expected Sat morn for ya? Still around 5mph?
Winds are supposed to be gusting up around 25 by morning. That is a good sign for the deer, bad for the hunters.
Bill,
People are very excited to talk all about your winter preview!! Let’s just hope our shovels don’t break!
Terri
Hey Guys,
What do you think about Lake Effect here in the Paw Paw Kalamazoo areas this weekend?
Don’t be shocked to see the track trend back to the west and give Lansing to Mt Pleasant a couple or a few inches. Looks like it’s already trying to go NEG tilt.