Bill’s Winter Forecast
November 14th, 2008 at 7:00 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
<–After the Blizzard of ‘78 (Dude, where’s my car??!!). Here’s how I began last year’s winter forecast: “One of the best winter forecasts ever made was recorded by Laura Ingalls Wilder (in “The Long Winter“) while her family was homesteading in the fall of 1880 near what is now DeSmet, South Dakota. While the settlers gathered at the general store, a dignified, old Native American comes to warn the settlers about the coming “heap, big snows – for 7 (full) moons”. Most of the settlers heeded the warning and moved to town for the winter. Just as predicted, the blizzards came from late October to early April. This winter West Michigan won’t see blizzards for 7 full moons…but we’re going to have plenty of cold and snow between now and late March.”
That last sentence proved to be true. Only a monster thaw on the weekend after Christmas (the temperature hit 60 due to the “Cancun Connection”) prevented us from getting some “Blizzard of ‘78″ style snow piles that would have really added up because the temperature stayed below freezing for all but a few hours during January (which was nearly five degrees colder than average). Here’s the bulk of last year’s forecast which you can reread here:
“Having digested all of this and more, I think snowfall this winter (2008-09) over the area will be above normal, varying from 55-60 inches in Lansing area to 85 inches in Grand Rapids to 100 inches in the favorable lake-effect areas. Marquette in the Upper Peninsula should top 150” for the winter. I think it’ll be colder than average in December. Lake Michigan is a little warmer than average and the lake temperature will stop for a week or two around 39 degrees as the lake water “overturns”. This will set the stage for some significant lake-effect snow in late November into December. We have a 57% chance of a White Christmas in Grand Rapids. This year I think the chance of a White Christmas (snow on the ground) will be at least 75%. We will see a January thaw, but winter will drag on a little later into March, when temperatures may again be a little cooler than average. This will mean we’ll have to spend a fair amount of money on plowing, sanding and salting. That will be a concern as the winter drags on during these financially lean times. So, don’t be afraid to get the season ski pass, get the snowmobile or cross country skies ready or find the ice fishing equipment. Winter is definitely on the way! This pattern will mean only brief incursions of cool air to central and southern Florida, so if you want to escape the cold, that would be a nice place to be.”
Let’s see how we did: I got the above normal snowfall right. I wasn’t high enough on the totals, but I don’t think I’d ever forecast that high a total. We did get some heavy lake-effect snow from late November into early December. Holland had 67″ of snowfall before Christmas Eve (sometimes they don’t get that much in any entire winter), including over 3 feet of snow from Nov. 16 to Dec. 9. We did get the White Christmas. We didn’t get a January thaw, but we did get monster thaws on the weekend between Christmas and New Year’s and also on Feb. 10-11. So the idea of a thaw was correct, but I missed the timing. The first week of March was cold (as cold as 5 above zero), but the weather story in March was +70% sunshine. The weather turned chilly again in early April (just in time for spring break) with below average temps. from April 4-14.
There is so much to study when making up a winter forecast. I look at the prevailing upper level winds, world sea-surface temperatures, the cold that builds up by mid-Autumn in the Arctic, sunspot cycles, the Atlantic, Arctic and Pacific Decadal Oscillations, 2009 Atlantic hurricane patterns (a very wimpy year for tropical storms), the number of 90-degree days we’ve had during the previous summer (7 in the last 2 summers combined, average is 9.5 for one summer), and the current state of La Nina/El Nino. We look back through our weather history to find correlations to the current conditions around the northern hemisphere and years when similar conditions were prevalent in the fall. Any forecast is a guess, an “educated guess”. The data base and the computer models aren’t good enough for near perfect forecast (won’t be in my lifetime), but long range forecasting has improved with new technology over the past 30 years.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac made what I think is a pretty good prediction. Their forecast for the winter in our area is for warm weather for early November, very cold weather in December, a little warmer than average in January, near normal in February and a little colder than average in March. The Almanac is forecasting below normal precipitation for December to February and above normal in March. Keep in mind that we can have above normal snowfall and below normal precipitation at the same time (less rain/more fluffy snow when it’s cold). Dr. Joe D’Aleo, a very respected long range forecaster, has worked with the Almanac this past year.
The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center forecast is just the opposite. They have 34 states warmer than normal this winter and 15 states near normal for temperatures (they don’t include Hawaii). The area with the greatest chance of a warmer than normal winter is Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota. They are forecasting an “equal chance” of above or below normal precipitation for the Great Lakes region this winter.
An interesting note…over the past 10 years, snowfall has trended upward in Grand Rapids and Muskegon.
First of all, we are moving back toward La Nina. We had La Nina conditions last winter and wound up with 107″ of snow in Grand Rapids, our 2nd highest total ever. The pattern went neutral this summer, and is now trending back toward La Nina, although it is now a weak La Nina. Last year was one of the snowiest (if not THE SNOWIEST) winter in North America. I don’t think we’ll have a repeat of that, but the pattern would suggest near to above normal snowfall for the Great Lakes.
We have been in a sunspot minimum in 2008. August was the first calendar month since 1913 without a single sunspot. History has shown a correlation between the number of sunspots and global temperature. While this is more of a consideration for long-term climate (decades), I note that the Sporer, Maunder and Dalton sunspot minimum periods coincided with a cooling of global temperature. The current sunspot minimum has been a little longer and stronger than expected and has been accompanied by a decrease in the solar wind.
Winter has come early in the Arctic. Barrow at the northern tip of Alaska had 21″ of snow in 28 days (they average 29″ per year…it’s a cold desert up there. Fairbanks has only had two days warmer than average in the last month and a half. During October and early November, Fairbanks has been 8 degrees colder than average! On the southern coast, Anchorage has only had one month this year that has been warmer than average. They haven’t reached 30 degrees since Oct. 22 and the last three weeks have been five degrees colder than average. The water off Alaska is colder than average and the sun won’t be of any help until spring. That heavy, cold air will start building southward soon. The surface Arctic icecap grew this year and is now at its greatest areal extent since 2002.
We have had a Gulf of Mexico centered hurricane season (Gustav and Ike brought heavy rain to West Michigan). Recent years when that happened are 1985, 1989, and 1995.
If you look back through these years, you’ll find that December 1985 was the 12th coldest December ever in Grand Rapids and December 1989 was the 5th coldest December on record. December 1995 was four degrees colder than average. The average season snowfall for Grand Rapids is 72.9”. The season snowfall for the above years is 79.1” for the winter of 1985-86, 89.8” for the winter of 1989-90, 79.7” for the winter of 1995-96.
We only had one day this summer when the temperature was warmer than 90 degrees in Grand Rapids (and that was Sept. 2).
Having digested all of this and more, I think snowfall this winter over the area will be above normal, varying from 55-60 inches in Lansing area to 85 inches in Grand Rapids to 100 inches in the favorable lake-effect areas. Marquette in the Upper Peninsula should top 150” for the winter. I think it’ll be colder than average in December. Lake Michigan is a little warmer than average and the lake temperature will stop for a week or two around 39 degrees as the lake water “overturns”. This will set the stage for some significant lake-effect snow in late November into December. We have a 57% chance of a White Christmas in Grand Rapids. This year I think the chance of a White Christmas (snow on the ground) will be at least 75%. We will see a January thaw, but winter will drag on a little later into March, when temperatures may again be a little cooler than average.
This will mean we’ll have to spend a fair amount of money on plowing, sanding and salting. That will be a concern as the winter drags on during these financially lean times. So, don’t be afraid to get the season ski pass, get the snowmobile or cross country skies ready or find the ice fishing equipment. Winter is definitely on the way!
This pattern will mean only brief incursions of cool air to central and southern Florida, so if you want to escape the cold, that would be a nice place to be.
HPC outlooks
Day 2 Prob of atleast 4″ http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif
Day 3 prob of atleast 4″ http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif
Well 6 to 12 is out of advisory and into warning criteria anyway.
id like to see us under and adv of some type that would b cool
I’m looking forward to the snow coming up, but like most here, I’m only expecting a couple of inches in inland areas, with heavier snow south of Holland and west of Kzoo, primarily in the areas that see heavy snow with a NW to NNW wind.
This will be a nice appetizer for what should be a wild December.
hmm just ready to get the snow
That clipper, looks to be a decent shot up north and west , Im thinking at this point a inch for me by Monday afternoon…..
will check the models later..
Michael. I think those are pretty accurate guesses.
Id say.
Saturday Through Tuesday
GR-1-4″
Holland/Grand haven- 3-5″
South Haven/ Benton Harbor- 5-8″
well i hope it does not get to bad on monday and fri gotta go sign up for school and school tour
just a lil gas price snapshot…its $1.91 at the speedway down the road from me
snowing pretty good at Ann Arbor for the MIchigan game..
Snow and 36* over this way. Too warm to accumulate.
it’s shrinking faster there Craig..
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/radar/site/GRR.shtml?GRR
thats shrinking fast…LOl
http://www.weather.com/weather/map/interactive/48879?from=36hour_map_large&zoom=7&interactiveMapLayer=radar
Ohio getting some snow
LIMA SNOW 33 32 96 NW15 29.60R VSB 1/2
This is a Special Weather Statement from Northern Indiana, covers Berrien and Cass most notably:
…LAKE EFFECT WINTER STORM POSSIBLE EARLY THIS WEEK…
MUCH COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS THIS COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS THE RELATIVELY
WARM WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN…LAKE EFFECT SNOW SQUALLS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP…SOME OF WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AND PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.
THE EXACT LOCATION FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS REMAIN UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF A LINE
FROM THREE RIVERS MICHIGAN TO WARSAW INDIANA…AND NORTH OF A LINE
FROM WINAMAC TO WARSAW. THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE
WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 31…ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES AS HIGH AS 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SQUALLS.
THIS STATEMENT IS AN OUTLOOK TO HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT WINTER STORM. AS INFORMATION AND LOCATION BECOMES
MORE CERTAIN…LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE
ISSUED. YOU SHOULD BEGIN THINKING ABOUT PREPARATIONS NOW…WELL
BEFORE THE EVENT IS SET TO BEGIN. TAKE TIME TO ORGANIZE A PLAN OF
ACTION AND CREATE A PREPAREDNESS KIT WITH SUPPLIES SO YOU ARE NOT
CAUGHT OFF GUARD.
lucky dogs
I’m really hoping our wind shifts WSW at some point….Not looking great for Holland area now.
Bob I too feel bad for California. I have relatives there and friends as well. I am shocked at the heat and fires there this year.
TWC had everywhere west of US 131 in the 3-6″ by the time this is all done.. I can’t make a set it stone prediction because I really don;t know what is going to happen. So I am going to sit back and watch LOL
NWS says advisory type snows for the lakeshore.
im sick of all this N-NW wind type crap..jenison deosnt get anything!
Will we have alot of lakeeffect snow or more snow storms this year..
gas prices at speedway down the road is at 1.88
Ok, look at watches and Adv. to show up in the Weather Map soon.. Doesn’t look like a school closing event.. but, enough to slick the roads up a little. We are talking about a lake shore event here Sunday and Monday.. 1-5 in Grand Rapids and 6-9 Grand Haven, Muskegan, somewhere around the lake.. IM SICK OF THIS NWS and MODELS crap.. I want to see real stuff.
Brennan, I’m liking your thoughts im personally sick of models too..sometimes i cant point out LES snow events on the models lol..do you think Ottawa Co. will have headlines as well?
This is from woodtv`s weather section.
Light snow is likely all day Sunday, and the intensity of the snow will ramp up a bit Sunday night into Monday. 2-4 inches of snow west of U.S. 131 is possible by Monday midday.
Our persistent (and to some people) aggravating wind off Lake Michigan will continue through just about all of our workweek. A chance of snow exists every day. No major storms are in the forecast, but you might need your shovel here and there!
The first flakes here, hoping for several inches by Mon.
wow its quiet tonight
on the blog that is..
yes it is very quiet…i think when something gets issued maybe then it’ll “purk” up
GAS WAS $1.81 IN CEDAR SPRINGS AND WE HAD A 40 CENTS OFF A GALLON COUPON!!! WOOHOO FILLED UP THE TANK FOR $1.41/GAL!!!!!!!!
I went into the store and came out into a winter blast. There was snow everywhere, we have a 1/4″!!
OK, final.. The national weather service thinks that the models have finally gave there pinpoint on where the snow is going to take place here in West Michigan. They have now decided to not issue any watches or warnings because of the weakened disturbance.. that’s right now expect School Monday and 2″ of new snow in the Grand Rapids area to the south.. and along the lake shore at the most 5″ Glad we could all get excited about something that’s not right! LOL! Well, we will all track our next “Possible” storm!!! NIGHT
and no one knows when our next storm will take place…the GFS and NAM models playing games all winter…night!
just thought id add this is know its a looong way out http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_360l.gif
TRUE THAT! WHY EVEN HAVE THEM!
To get an idea that there might be a storm and a change of airmass Brennan.
I still have 1/4″ at my place, now with some sleet on the ground. Radar showing rather light returns headed my way
Did you guys not see the big sfc low just to our east (giving a mix of precip to DTX’s area) and large 500 mb trough overhead today? The models of several days ago were only a bit to the west, a bit deeper, and a bit more cold. This is why we call models “guidance.” They don’t represent the true atmosphere.
Cort, Ohio had snow today, and my friend Art out in CT had low level rotation and was under a Tornado Watch earlier
Oh Charles, I wish we had the tornado watch today. I miss severe weather. We didn’t get a late-season severe event this year. I’m kind of bummed. Oh well, there’s always that January thaw with its freakish potential for severe weather… (1″ hail, 60 mph winds, and a tornado warning in Mt Pleasant on January 7th, 2008… amazing). (By the way, my last post was written before you posted at 1:21).
Me too man. I saw how far north it was and was jealous LOL
I remember the severe in January. That was great I had a nice hook over my house, the clouds were so dark and dense it blocked out the lightning, I didn’t even hear any rain it suddenly stopped. I want to go back there!
Not to mention the Bow Echo on Dec. 23rd last year.. remember that?
I was up at Crystal Mountain (Benzie County) during the Dec 23rd storm. We got a lot of snow dumped on us, and I wasn’t aware of the severe thunder-snow-storm until I got back home. Just crazy. Now that we’re through the boring part of fall, I’m looking forward to more crazy weather this winter.
The flakes have began…
Snowing quite hard right now. It’s so beautiful watching the snow fall. I sure missed winter.
Well, that only lasted 5 min. Hope we get more of that today !
Snowing really hard hear, already dusting the grass hop it keeps it up all day then getting dumped on tonight and tomorrow.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCHES POSTED FOR LOWER TIP OF MICHIGAN AND THE UP… EXPECT 6-10″
winds are posta move back to the WNW tuesday but moisture will b waning…of course just when jenison wants to get in the action there isnt any snow left
why does he write in all capitals?
Let, the kid write in capitals if he wants.. why does it bother you so much.. wow people!
This is the first time I have heard a kind of long range regional forecast but I wish it would have included the Big Rapids area. I kind of like to know what to expect but I usually prepare anyway. I probably won’t visit very often but we have a 7yr. old grandson who will probably grow up to be a meteorologist. He lives for the weather forcasts. I’ll show him this site. Thank you all for your interesting thoughts.
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