Lake-Effect Snow Winds Down
November 20th, 2008 at 12:42 pm by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
<—click on first image to supersize. Click here for full screen radar. 1:30 AM – and the radar is empty. They have 14″ of snow on the ground in the woods near Fennville, 13.5″ fell near Benton Harbor, 10″ at Hart, 13″ up at Lake City, 12″ on the ground near Mancelona – it was -2 in Gaylord this AM. We had a report of 15″ of snow on the ground 4 mi. east of Saugatuck. In the U.P. we have 16″ on the ground at Gladstone and at the NWS office at Negaunee, and 12″ at Newberry. Grand Junction reported a flash of lightning last night. 26″ fell in NE Erie Co. PA. and 23″ at Pierpont, PA. Please leave a comment if you get a snow measurement.
MSN?
i redownloaded MSN and it wont open..but h/o
ok
That map is showing 1 to 3, not 3 to 6.
yea it wont let me open it..
The wind is still going to be predominately NNW.
yea Harry idk where hes getting that from
OK… LOL stupid me.. ACCUWEATHER isnt so ACCU!!! Yeah, they change it every 5 mins DUMB PEOPLE!!! AHHHH MY HOPES GET UP THEN THEY CRUSH!!
are you sure your top in ur class?
I’ve found that accuweather and weather.com are both a little too general to pinpoint LES accumulations. The great thing about this blog is that everybody is local, as is the LES. Only takes a few miles to make a difference in snowfall. Monday seemed to flop forecast wise, we didn’t even have LES warnings issued until a few hours prior of the snowband setting in place. Seems like the NWS kept an eye on thurs-fri. timeframe for this one.
Yes… Tyler I am.. I’m just very Tired no sleep since Monday and The accuweather alarm went off so I acted quick.. EXAMS ALL DAY!!! AHHH!!!
file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/Owner/Desktop/snow%20amount.GIF
Yeah, I see what you mean Brennan Accuweather is flipping back and forth.. they are the weirdest site I have ever seen. They forecast 36 inches a week ago! lol Yeah right!
Well, goodnight! Hope to see action tomorrow on here!
I don’t use Accuweather, a lot of wishcasting over there…
Wunderground normally has a good idea of what will happen, one guy I follow a lot (he’s mainly for the northeast) is sullivanweather. He hasn’t steered me wrong yet on a single forecast. He definitely deserves his featured spot.
Some heavy LES bands in the UP, not much here, virga and flurries around the area.
Boy the GFS long range shows a stormy pattern, a big southwest storm system, followed by 2 clippers and then an eats coast storm that would kick snow all the way to Wisconsin LOL? We’ll have to see what happens…
I think we will have a good snowstorm the first week of Dec.
east coast*
i guess all there is to do now is wait..and watch the models for further storms?
yea this is likely to change but very nice snowstorm http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_336l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_336l.gif
that storm is likely to change…but very nice storm
I’m not big on snow and cold weather, but I do hafta admit that a huge snow storm like I remember many moons ago when I was little and we lived in Linden (I’m guessing ‘79?)-came home from Florida on spring break and the snow was up to the hood of the car on the road and in the driveway. Dad had to plow it after having driven 1500 miles straight thru, then he had to go to work 3rd shift that night at the Flint P.D.! Even when we moved near Grayling in ‘88 I don’t remember snow like that.
Of course there’s always that snowstorm on Little House on the Prairie where the snow was up to the 2nd floor window of the house and to the loft door of the barn! ;o)
I agree with all of you who noted that Bill is right on with his winter forecast-I don’t see where he’s missed anything thus far. Then again, he never does!
)
Have a great day everyone and stay warm!
Its a cold 32° here but its going to get colder later this week. I hate winter BUT I do like big storms. As for the guessing storms several days out! I am from the old school and I for one do NOT buy into any of the long range models. Not until no more then 36 to 18 hrs out. Until then in my opinion (and even then) its just a guess. As for Accuweather they do not update their forcast (only once a day, maybe) and they favor the eats (east) coast.
As I said I hate the snow and cold so lets hope it warms up soon!
SlimJim
This is a depressing start to the snowfall season for those of us not right at the lake. :=(
SlimJim,
I agree about forecasting beyond 36hrs,
The models have been worse than ever, my little humble opinion,
after watching the models since late Oct for Mid Nov thru Late Nov, as far as big synoptic snows, they cannot get it right…beyond 48hrs
with that said, they have been very accurate about the temperatures.
So IM guesing our first real synoptic snow here inland, would be mon/tues time frame…then a little warm up with the “potential” of a whopper anywhere from Nov 29 to Dec 3rd…as the models have been that inconsistent, just 6hrs inbetween runs create totaly differnet scenarios..
Oh and also…Ive been watching the NAO, forecasted to tank twice since Nov 14th..but the models were not consistent on level of that drop.
since the 14th it has dropped to -.5,that particular time frame was predicted by several model runs at -4, so it was off 3.5
But now shows another drop around Nov 29th time frame to -1.5 and the models show consistency.
Not much snow going on here near Plainwell and not expecting much either. But hey, we have the cheap gas!!
Instead of watching the snowflakes fall, I’m sitting here watching my IRA/401(k) fall.
Barb-
I learned to stop looking at ours. I have 3 kids under 3, I dont need another stress.
The snow has really picked up here in the last half hour.
It has been lightly snowing all morning, now it is snowing much harder, I will have a snow total at Noon and in the afternoon today.
Sun is out here and nothing more than a few furries all morning
Large flakes with this one, they said 20:1 ratio so that is great for accumulation.
It looks like it is really kicking up over there!!!
We are even getting flurries over here now! Better than nothing =)
It actually has lightened up quite a bit. About an inch in Saugatuck, but nothing in the past half hour. Perhaps the bands are reorganizing.
Made a fire in the fireplace, sitting here with my little girl. Sun is out….looks like the snow wont make it here, so when the wife gets home from work, I think I will finish putting the Christmas lights up outside.
I noticed the band has shifted a bit and looks to be hugging the coast in Ottawa county.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_slp_360l.gif
that storm needs to take a Toledo track
Not even a flake here. Oh well. I can look across the field and see the edge of a band, but that is it.
Tyler which storm needs to take a Toledo Track. Barely any snow here in southwest kent county. Still wondering when we will get the first heavy snow.
It now looks like the main band with this lake effect storm will wander off the coast. I will stick to my prediction last night for up to 4″ in Allegan, 4-8″ Van Buren, and 8-14″ in Berrien.
Watchman Tyler from Jenison/Ottawa Co. Says:
November 20th, 2008 at 12:58 pm
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_slp_360l.gif
that one
We have had about 1 1/2″ of snow today drove 5 miles east to Lawrence at lunch time snowing quite heavy there they have gotten maybe 3″ today.
We’ve had a few bursts of snow…nothing right now as I type.
Check out the moderate snow over here in Ann Arbor!!! I’m loving it =)
http://www.flickr.com/photos/direfloyd/3045889347/
Picture out my office window.
Snowing like crazy now in Holland.
Well, I have a dusting with some flurries out there right now.
Nice shots direfloyd!
Snowing like crazy near the Lake in Holland. 2 inches so far.
…and now nothing =) It will come back!
Thanks Charles!