The Coming Cold Blast
November 24th, 2008 at 8:23 pm by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog
<– click the pic. to supersize. This is the 18Z Monday 384-hour GFS valid for Weds. AM 12/10. We are already cold with an 850 mb temp. of about -12C coming across the lake. But look what’s upstream! It’s a HUGE 1058 mb high and a large area of -30C (-22F) air moving southeast. We have one month until Christmas Day. In the coming weeks we’re going to see colder than average temperatures – at times, much colder than average! Arctic outbreaks will continue to ignite significant lake-effect snow, especially in areas that get hit when we have a prevailing north-northwest wind. What can you do? Make sure you and your family have appropriate mid-winter clothes, gloves (mittens) and boots. Wind chills are going to be below zero in mid-December. The snow shovel, blower or plow service should be ready to roll. Finish getting the yard ready for winter and get the Christmas lights up early. You’ll also need to prepare for a higher heating bill for December. You might consider getting your Holiday shopping done sooner rather than wait until mid-December. On the plus side, it should be a great month for winter sports. The ice fishing season may start early this year. .
Thats a massive high pressure. Thanks for the info Bill!! Also.. hope we get a couple good synoptic snow events during that cold!
Looks like a slow month ahead work wise… if the wind chill is 0 and below we don’t go out… And if our high is no higher than 5 we don’t go in the field… New rules that began last year. I have no prob with that.
So what you’re saying is…my wife, who is a teacher in Mona Shores, probably will have a snow day or two? And for me…who works in Grand Rapids, it will be quite an interesting ride in with my rear wheel drive Mustang?
Yay….
I wonder if this will be one of the rare years when Lake Michigan freezes all the way across.
I dont think L. Michigan will freeze all the way across but i think we will get a lot…looks like after the first burst of cold air, we will see a continuous train of stotms that will re-enforce that cold air…looks like the models are indicating a lot of good looking significant storms in that train!!!
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_348l.gif
nice healthy snowstorm great path..just needs to hold..ill b on this
http://www.ready.noaa.gov/data/forecasts/grads/gfslr/panel2/plt14.gif
dang if this is consistent and keeps its strength and path…wow..we could b in for s snowstorm
Drizzle/wSnow this early am….33*
Another inch over night….total about 2.5″
Hi Bill,
Printed out the info, including map, on the forecast for a cold blast in mid-Dec. I will keep an eye to see if it materializes. Either way,I hope to post and remind you and your readers about your and the NWS success or failure in this forecast. I have seen so many forecasts go awry and nobody says anything! However, when the forecast is accurate there is a “a told you so” attitude. We only learn by recognizing our mistakes (and successes). Of course, when we take a mistake too seriously and give up at what we are trying to do, is probably the worst of all the alternatives.
Tom
Hi Bill,
Just wanted to add that your advice on how to prepare for the cold spell is very wise. As the old saying goes “It’s better to be safe than sorry.” Keep up the good work in keeping people informed and encouraging them to be prepared for severe weather that can be dangerous.
Tom
33° here had 2.6″ of snow here yesterday. Looks like I better get a heavy jacket (to wear in the house) I will need it. I keep the temp down in the house to save on the heat bill. But may have to keep temp up in December. As for Lake Michigan icing all the way across, it would take a long cold winter for that to happen and more likely then not this winter it will warm up in January (I hope so) anyway its too early to guess at that yet.
SlimJim
This mornings GFS is not nearly as cold in the long term. Hopefully it’s just one run that’s lost touch with reality.
We got another inch over noght and it is still snowing.
It would be wise to have a spare set of boots, gloves, jacket, and blanket in the car if you are going to be out traveling any reasonable distance. I leave mine on the floor in backseat so I won’t have to get out of the car to get any of these items from the trunk.
I was hoping the December Arctic cold would bring a more western wind and not a N/NW. I would like to see some more LES in GR before Christmas.
TO: Watchman Tyler from Jenison/Ottawa Co.,
Good find on the GFS model.
Looks like a big snowstorm for Dec 9-10. Really cold air/lake effect looks to follow. I’m sure it will change daily, but its a notable storm to keep track of this far out.
Picked up 4.5″ of snow over this way from the storm. Just gorgeous in the woods! Looks like I should get my ice fishing gear out and new line put on the rods!!!
ba hum bug on winter i`d rather be a snow bird!
Wow, so much for that big cold shot. The latest GFS is actually warming us up pretty good in two weeks. Not what I was hoping for with the holiday season upon us. Hopefully, it is wrong.
Snowing again here at 1:45pm, nice burst..
I see the NA goes big postive around Dec 7th, of course, it’s just a prediction, aligned with the models, but the models are also going warm after the 7th?? So we shall see if this is a hicup!
k well the models have lost that storm that i saw
I am not happy with the cold air predictions….I love the snow I just hate the cold air that accompanies it..YUCK!
If I were not so afraid of bugs I would definitely move south way south I am thinking Costa Rica or somewhere tropical. Nice warm breeze, sunny blue skies and crystal clear oceans. ahhh let’s not forget the a nice tall cool drink and a cabana boy or two.
Sounds like it’s getting pretty darn “chilly” over your way already, maggie! Cabana boys this early – ouch! LOL
Thanks for the storm info, Tyler…
I know you said the model “lost” the storm during the last run, but at least we have plenty of time left for it to show back up, hopefully.
Let it snow!
The models are going crazy today for some reason, so its likely that what you see next week is a hick-up!!!
waiting for the evening model run…to me it looks like the jet stream is still in a position to give us cold aie
I think I was spoiled last year when the long range models often had two storms on them all winter. I haven’t seen anything suggesting any big storms yet this year.
The latest GFS has a nice storm coming fairly close to us on December 1st: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_114l.gif
From what I’m reading, the much advertised severe cold in December is in danger of not happening, but the models are flip flopping like crazy.
The GFS is all over the place for long ranges. We’ll see as we get closer to December what transpires… Anyone note the possibility of a storm this upcoming Sun/Mon? GRR NWS Forecast discussions mention it.
I’m starting to get into Storm mode for the Sunday PM and Monday chance, Not that it will happen but it’s now worth watching closely.
Bring on the Cold An Blow make lots of ice. Lets have a real Mich Winter.