Oil Valley Vick says “cold winter”!
November 25th, 2008 at 12:47 pm by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog
I’m forecasting a colder than average December here in Michigan and over much of the eastern half of the U.S. The National Weather Service is forecasting a warm winter for Michigan and the Great Lakes region. Famous long-range forecasters Joe Bastardi of Accu-Weather (Bastardi’s winter forecast will be issued tomorrow, 11-26 on the public website) and Dr. Joe D’Aleo of Intellicast are predicting colder than average weather for December in the Midwest and East. Now we have learned that Oil Valley Vick, the forecasting woolly worm of Oil City, Pennsylvania is also calling for a cold winter. The black stripes covering 2/3rds of Vick’s body, leaving no doubt of the coming chill. Dr. Charles Curran of the American Museum of Natural History in New York studied woolly bear caterpillars for eight years and found that caterpillers living in the same area had quite varying thincknesses of black and brown bands.
The Squirrel nests are pretty big this year too. Another sign of a frigid winter.
Not that I truly believe those “farmer’s” tales. I prefer the science and past year’s info.
Either way, Im ready! And extremely thankful for the budget plan for my gas and electric!
One great thing about the weather, you can guess all day long but what’s going to be is what’s going to be. We got a “Weather Rock” out front. One look and you know if it is raining (its wet), snowing (its white), moving (its windy) you get the idea… I enjoy the blog Bill, keep up the great work!
Hey everyone, click my name for an awesome meteor caught on film from a police dash cam!! One of the coolest I have ever seen captured.
Thats crazy… wonder what the cop was thinking
I had that happen to me in the middle of Lake Huron in a sailboat race, I thought I was a goner =) It lit up the night REALLY bright purple.
Cool video!
My grandfather always watched the woods,animals and bugs for signs of winter….whats weird…He was correct most of the time…acorns was another…this year not very many and those I’ve found are small….the trees were not stressed this summer with the amount of rain and no huge streaks of dry/hot weather…beech nuts was another indicator, but in the east side of the UP the beech trees have a blite..and no beech nuts are produced…if he was alive today ..I think this year he would be one old confused man….I vote for a hard, cold snowy winter.
I think that it will be exceptionally cold this winter, too. Lots of snow. Too bad we can’t ship all the snow to Al Gore’s house in Tennessee.
lol
What if Al’s hypothesis turns out to be correct? I’m not advocating allegiance to his theory. I just think it makes sense to be open minded to alternative modalities. Adapting to change is crucial to survival…plus, it keeps one young at heart! (in my last year b4 turning 50).
By the way, this past fall I saw a lot of Wolly’s smashed in the road so it was hard telling LOL
This will be the first winter when I will have the opportunity to snowblow before my wife goes to work. Kinda wish I had a straight pipe on my snowblower…hehehe
you are half cooked Craig…LOL
I assume that means the other half of me is still raw, eh Bob?
So what’s the news with the storms that everyone was raving about for the first week of December, did they just vanish into thin air, or is there still a possibility?
ewwwwwww raw….LOL rawhide more like it..haha
Lance..
maybe around the 6th? But give the models another 6hrs..maynbe this weekend yet?
ok… i’m hoping for both this weekend and the 6th!! that would be sweet! Do you think anyone could post their predictions/ the predictions of the models before 7:00 tomorrow morning? that would be MUCH appreciated!
i always watch the cows and the pets when my dogs are in TROUBLE i know something is comming
Danielle – does that hold true for toddlers as well? If so, there is ALWAYS a good storm coming.
Sarah yes
Cool video there Charles. I think if I saw something like that, I would freak. That thing was huge!
I guess it is going to be a cold winter this year, the ducks aren’t even hanging around down in Buck Creek, and there is usually at least 4 or 5 of them all winter long. Not a one right now!
Some clearing here with a temp of 28° looks like today and turkey day might not be too bad, time to get out a go for a walk. Looking at next week that too looks like a rather typical early December weather pattern, in other words blah cold but not too much going on either.
SlimJim
Arctic Air?
Interesting storm suddenly showing up on the 12 Z GFS. It has a strong low coming up the Ohio Valley eventually phasing with another low going up the east coast. The current track would give the warning snow to the east side of the state. Something to watch in the next few runs.
By the way, that storm they are showing is for the end of the weekend.
I saw it giving us a lot snow too!!! NWS says they are not impressed with it though, but that discussion was before that model run came out!
Yes. All the ducks and geese have disappeared. Anyone know where they went? I thought these were not migratory ones here in West Michigan.
Too many variables for this late weekend event, to call right now!
it does look like we will get clipper after clipper,(after thursday night, this one will not be much though)
so maybe we can build a snow base with clippers until the mother load comes?
One clipper next wed. looks to be a beefy dude, but It opens up over northern michigan..DOH!
The models are driving me crazy! LOL
I just seen Oil Valley Vick in my garage when i was getting some firewood. He sure gets around. Looks like a good 4 day weekend coming up. Gonna see if i can add another deer in my freezer with the 7pt i got on the morn of Nov 15th. Have a good one!
Not all of the ducks have left yet. There are still some in the pond near my house (maybe they can not fly?) but the geese are now gone, is that unusual?
Not bad out today for late November up to 41° and cloudy.
SlimJim
Here is the link to the snowfall forecast for the storm Sunday/Monday.
http://204.2.104.196/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif
^ Awesome Jim!!! =)
so Jim, im thinking that storm needs to take a track inbetween the Toledo/Cleveland area
Anyone see that storm for NEXT weekend on the 18Z GFS? It shows the arctic front hanging up and waiting for a low to move up along it from the gulf. WHAM! A monster!
A long way out, so we’ll see.
As far as the storm for THIS Sunday/Monday goes….I don’t think it looks very good, although last year the storm tracks did trend farther and farther west with time.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_slp_216l.gif
michael is this what ur talking about?
the GRR NWS is talking bout the sunday/monday storm HOWEVER WITH A VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE AND DEEP H5 TROF DIGGING INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES IN THAT TIME FRAME… IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
THAT THE SFC LOW COULD STRENGTHEN AND TRACK SLOWER/FURTHER NW THAN
WHAT CURRENT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. A SIGNIFICANT EARLY
SEASON SNOWSTORM IS VERY POSSIBLE TO THE NW OF THE SFC LOW TRACK
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
wow no one is here
i think the GFS is pushing the sunday/monday storm to the east coast
Craig, you and I were probably born the same year. (Fifty is just around the corner!)
I haven’t seen any wooly bear caterpillars around here of late. Guess that means we’re not going to have winter here in North Texas. (sigh!) Of course, if I observe them closely, maybe the fire ants in my neighbor’s yard may be trying to tell me something.
I do not like the new weather guy. He rambles on and we just want to hear the weather and thats it. I did not like to see him on the weekends and I do not want to see him during the week either.