Snow and Cold This Week!!
November 29th, 2008 at 5:29 pm by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
Happy Monday evening! For a long time I’ve been talking about a cold and snowy December and it’s starting on cue. A winter storm brushed us Sunday afternoon into Monday with the heaviest snow of 5-10″ (lighter amounts south). Lake-effect snowshowers continue tonight. It’ll be cold enough for lake-effect snow showers/flurries on Tuesday AM with the sun possibly popping out briefly Tuesday PM. It gets windy Tuesday Night with rising temperatures. We may get a shot of precipitation Wednesday and Weds. night as a strong, Arctic-type cold front arrives…snow or a mix of rain and snow going to all snow with the roads getting icy by Weds. evening. Wind chills could be in the single figures Thursday PM, with the lake-effect snow and nasty conditions possible. We could see some school closings both Thursday and (in the lake snowbelts) on Friday and a few Monday morning not totally out of the question if there is some drifting. The European model – gave us an 850 mb. temperature of -16.1C Friday morning. 850 mb would be around a mile above the ground. That’s chilly air! If that’s even close to being right, and I think it is…Thursday PM and Friday are going to be really cold days with lake-effect snow showers as Arctic Air would be coming over the 40-degree water of Lake Michigan. Temperatures would probably be in the teens with wind chills down to or even a little below zero! Here’s the GRR NWS discussion. GRR NWS has had some very good discussions the past few days. Bottom line…Old Man Winter is comin’ to call and he’s pumped – revved – geeked – stoked – ready to rock ‘n roll – and he’s going to be hangin’ here in Michigan for much of the coming month. Feel free to send send the link to this article here to all your friends so they’ll be ready!
I’m sticking with my original call until I’m forced to change it. 2-4″ for much of the area. The far south may see some rain mix in early cutting amounts, and the far northwest may see less as well.
Better news…..looks like a nice west wind lake effect event behind the midweek clipper, and a parade of clippers following that.
No Craig, it’s not….but it has potential!
the temp models hold the temp above freezing, with that said, the dewpoints look to hold below 29* for the event,
Im so busy sunday thru sunday of next week, I almost would rather it held off…I cant believe Im saying that!
We may to rely on the clippers as decribed by michael g….
I looked into my holiday snow globe and I see 1 – 3 inches here along the lakeshore.
What Bob you would rather not have snow this week? Well welcome to the club. Of course one always has to keep any eye out for the ones that are not all hyped up, but it is still early in the game and looks like a good warm up before a possible big cool down next week.
today looks nice and sunny, had a cold start with an over night low of 18° here.
SlimJim
12Z NAM still looks decent for snow, especially for us west siders. It has the low west of Detroit.
What did I tell you all.. don’t get to excited until you know the facts
I don`t think the storm looks too bad. I think GR could still get 4″
Some areas on the lakeshore SW of GR could get some lake enhancement.. maybe 5-6″
just my thoughts
guys the latest GFS looks stronger than last night
I’m going to take your advice Bill and get the garage organized today and locate all of our hat and mittens! =) It is a nice day to take care of the rest of the outside stuff and then we’ll be ready for the snow!!!!!
ya i agree tyler.. i think it still has a 3-6″ potential
do you think schools will close monday!!
the GFS does look quite a bit stronger.
Click my name for an updated map, it’s valid Sun-Tues.
I checked on the models and my forecast is similar to what the NAM has for us. I still think I may be overdoing it a bit but remember… 2-4″ can mean we all see just 2″. Keep that in mind folks.
I am not totally sold on this storm yet and areas of SE MI may start off as rain or a mix before going to all snow.. I checked the HPC page for low tracks and they push it further west as it comes closer. HPC also only has a 10% chance for >4″ of snow so… Everything is basically a mess, and everyone’s opinions are all over the place. I’m still going to get the shovel out though.
I was scrolling through the talk here, and people… a snowstorm is a storm system that produces accumulating snow. 2-4″ and 3=5″ qualifies as a snowstorm in my book!
By the way nice map Mark =)
I am enjoying this sunshine, it’s amazing. I haven’t been able to sit in the sun here in my room like this in a long time.
so whats the story?
Sadly it looks like we’re going to be missed here in Holland. Would 1-2 inches for Holland be a reasonable estimate?
I too saw the latest GFS..it has beefed up the precip. quite a bit. IF the GFS is correct, I could see 4-6 over much of west Michigan…closer to 2-4 right along the lakeshore. How about the storm the GFS is showing for later in the week. That looks to be much more impressive.
The more I look at it, the more I would not be surprised to see the heaviest band move more northwest, and be a little stronger. Perhaps 4-8″ over most of West Michigan????
Jim id love that…do you think any headlines will b issued later today?
Anyone know what late sunday night (11pm to midnight) will bring? I see the totals but is that when it ends on Monday night? If it’s for earlier Sunday I feel sorry for all the travelers going home from the long weekend. Also seems no one is saying the same thing (NWS, accu weather etc.).
Thanks:)
Jim, I also was looking at the storm later in the week. That one looks like it could dump q good mount of snow, that storm has been shown for the past 3 days.. it stays basically the same each run.
What a chnage from the morning runs. This HAS to be overdone!
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=DTX
i agree
LMAO! CRAIG…
That’s insane, 14″ are you kidding me?
Right on, Chuck!!! But, it is a sign that more Gulf moisture may be sucked into this storm than thought this morning. Could be a swath of 6″ to 10″ somewhere in southern MI.
Well my friend Matt may have the right idea for this storm then. Click my name for his map.
Thanks again for the laugh Craig. Man.. I just went and looked again, just because I needed the chuckle LOL
What I can’t figure out is why all the snow maps I am seeing are placing the snow depths on a more or less E/W axis, yet the low is moving almost due North to NNE on all the models.
Craig you’re not alone.. I tried to angle my map a bit more than the others. I’ll probably have to make another one =(
Beautiful day out there today. Hung my Christmas light on Wednesday so that is all out of the way. (Now I need a little snow on them) I am thinking headlines for this event unfolding Sun into Monday. Then more headlines for Wed. into Fri. I am thinking schools have a chance for there first snow day sometime this upcoming week. Gotta be excited about that!
Thanks Charles, The storms looks beter and I suspect I may need to adjust my map just a tad with perhaps a little more snow and more to the west and northwest and leave the east about as is. Winter will have a jump start thanks to this week. I’ve been cleaning my garage out today and haven’t been online much but I might just be up late tonight. GOOD POINT Craig, I have a slant due to some warmer temps to the south-southeast and less snow far northwest away from the best deformation areas and more to the north-north central and northeast with a little extra help via Lake Huron, but many areas should see several inches.
I hear you Jay, thats next after the garage is done, and it’s almost done. talk to you all around 9:00pm and I will update my map and forecast shortly after that.
Craig, is your map the total for the next 5 days or just this storm. It looks a lot like a map I looked at earlier, but it was the total for the 2 storms over the next 120 hours. I still see no updates regarding the storm, no new hazardous weather outlook..nothing. My guess is they wait to see the European model which just came out and the NAM coming out and issue some headlines, if needed, after that.
Wow! The excitement has certainly grown since I left. We were out geocaching at Pigeon Creek Park. What a beautiful late fall day. Now….I’M READY FOR WINTER!!!!
Well I’d have to say that if current models stay the same and what happens is close to what the models predict… we should have a decent storm on our hands. Kinda hard to ignore the GFS… It’s had a lot of problems with gulf moisture/transporting in the past.. and this might have been another one of those hic-ups. Even blending the NAM and GFS would be an average of about 6-9 inches.. so I’d have to think we are in Winter Storm Watch guidlines. However where it rains.. which I think will be well east of our area towards Detroit and Pontiac.. Accumulations will be cut in half..
That IS an impressive run of the GFS. And in spite of the relatively warm surface temps, the 540 line shifts quickly to the east Sunday evening, so any mix should be short lived. With the heavier precip coming at night, the temp should drop quickly to around 32*, and the wet heavy snow should have no trouble accumulating.
hey guys..any new thoughts?
Yeah no trouble at all. The only thing I just noticed is the models are starting to indicate storms will fire down south (Florida, Georgia) and possibly rob us of moisture for this storm.. That would cut our accumulations back greatly. 2-4 inch range at best…
Jim S – you are correct, that is a 120hr snow total. Still, the morning runs had half of the current estimate. I’m thinking a Watch will be posted around 4 for most of southern and central MI.
have you guys seen the NAM just came in!?
even stronger!
Just looking at the new NAM..further west and stronger. Pretty significant nudge west I think. That rain/snow mix may clip more than just the far SE counties of Michigan. We’ll see.
Do you have a link tyler?
im on my dads cpu..and idk how to copy and paste on here
I would say if they base the forecast on the new Nam and the 12 Z GFS….winter storm watches for the much of lower michigan.
Jim S, id like to see the GFS
winterstorm watch for the Northern Indiana County warning area
First Watch posted for parts of NW IN and SW MI. Looks like that Pontiac to Ann Arbor line is about right for the rain/snow line right now.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/iwx/
This would be the 18Z NAM total precip. through 36 hours. I can’t recall how the hours work…if that is 36 hours from right now…or from 6pm tonight..8pm..can’t recall. Regardless, it shows a lot of precip. which if it was all snow, could be warning criteria for everyone in the area.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_p36_036s.gif
“TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN”
The maps will start lighting up soon. This thing unfolded pretty quick. It will be interesting to see just how far north and west it will move. They mentioned snow/rain at the start…changing to all snow. I don’t want to see anymore westward movement as that just increases the mix chances and the dreaded dry slot chances.