Snow and Cold This Week!!
November 29th, 2008 at 5:29 pm by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
Happy Monday evening! For a long time I’ve been talking about a cold and snowy December and it’s starting on cue. A winter storm brushed us Sunday afternoon into Monday with the heaviest snow of 5-10″ (lighter amounts south). Lake-effect snowshowers continue tonight. It’ll be cold enough for lake-effect snow showers/flurries on Tuesday AM with the sun possibly popping out briefly Tuesday PM. It gets windy Tuesday Night with rising temperatures. We may get a shot of precipitation Wednesday and Weds. night as a strong, Arctic-type cold front arrives…snow or a mix of rain and snow going to all snow with the roads getting icy by Weds. evening. Wind chills could be in the single figures Thursday PM, with the lake-effect snow and nasty conditions possible. We could see some school closings both Thursday and (in the lake snowbelts) on Friday and a few Monday morning not totally out of the question if there is some drifting. The European model – gave us an 850 mb. temperature of -16.1C Friday morning. 850 mb would be around a mile above the ground. That’s chilly air! If that’s even close to being right, and I think it is…Thursday PM and Friday are going to be really cold days with lake-effect snow showers as Arctic Air would be coming over the 40-degree water of Lake Michigan. Temperatures would probably be in the teens with wind chills down to or even a little below zero! Here’s the GRR NWS discussion. GRR NWS has had some very good discussions the past few days. Bottom line…Old Man Winter is comin’ to call and he’s pumped – revved – geeked – stoked – ready to rock ‘n roll – and he’s going to be hangin’ here in Michigan for much of the coming month. Feel free to send send the link to this article here to all your friends so they’ll be ready!
Looks like the watch to our south is for 4-8″ of snow from the system, with 8″+ in areas that will pick up lake effect on the back side with a NNW wind.
Last year, the models would trend farther and farther NW with each run, and then just before the storm hit, they would shift slightly back to the SE. That would be just fine this time.
Winter weather advisory for 2-4″+ all the way back to western Illinois/eastern Iowa with the upper low diving in.
The NAM precip output would give SW michigan a good 6-10″ if it is all snow. Even more for NW Indiana and NE Illinois due to a lake enhancement off of Lake Mich.
id say WSW’s in the 4pm discussion
Someone may have posted this already, but I couldn’t pass it up. Anytime I see the words “near blizzard” associated with our area I freak out.
THE FIRST THING THIS CHANGES IS THE SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE 29TH/00Z ECMWF MERGES A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVE TO CREATE A 989 MB LOW OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN BY 12Z
THURSDAY. THIS LOW MOVED NORTHEAST FROM KANSAS AS A 999 MB LOW 12Z
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS BRINGS +4C 850 MB AIR TO I-94 BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
THEN THE 850 TEMP PLUNGES 20C BY THURSDAY TO -17C. WITH A 989 MB LOW
NORTH OF PLN AND A 1032 MB HIGH OVER OK AT 12Z THURSDAY THERE WOULD
BE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN THURSDAY
MORNING. THE GFS IS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT AS IT SHOWS
A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MERGER TOO. THAT IS AIDED BY A
300 MB 130 KNOT JET CORE HEADING SOUTH DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT. THAT RESULTS IN A NEGATIVE
TILT UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS THEN CREATES
A CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT STALLS OVER QUEBEC INTO FRIDAY. WHICH OF
COURSE WOULD KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT GOING AND KEEP WEST MICHIGAN IN
ARCTIC AIR.
watches posted for the thumb area
WSW issued for us
excess of 6″
Just read the Detroit discussion. Sounds like they are concerned about a dry slot and warm air at the start mixing the snow with rain. Like I said earlier, if that low continues too far west, we could be in that dry slot/rain mix. We shall see.
3-Hour Surface Pressure Change Maps can be useful in following where
a surface low is moving. Surface low pressure, tend to move toward
the greatest pressure falls. This is most useful in short-term
forecasting and should be use as a general rule.
For the ECMWF model, there is not much data available to
the public, there is around 5-6 sites that have ECMWF charts.
Winter Storm Watch
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=CRH&product=WSW&issuedby=GRR
I’m so happy that the onset of REAL winter weather is only about 24 hours away.
Area Forecast Discussion Detroit
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=CRH&product=AFD&issuedby=DTX
Area Forecast Discussion: North Webster
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=CRH&product=AFD&issuedby=IWX
Winter Storm Watch: Detroit
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=CRH&product=WSW&issuedby=DTX
Winter Storm Watch: North Webster
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=CRH&product=WSW&issuedby=IWX
Latest Area Forecast Discussion: Grand Rapids
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=CRH&product=AFD&issuedby=GRR
EXPECT A GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCH EVENT WITH 8 INCHES OR MORE
POSSIBLE IN A NARROW STRIPE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IF
THE BANDS PIVOT AS EXPECTED.
Winter Storm watch.. im pumped!
Im thinking Holland could get 6-8″ with some LES on the backside.
Mr. Ostuno seems to be very confused about which day it is. :=)
I’m thinking my girl may get 6-8″ later on tonight, just depends on how I feel.
Michael g, I thought the same thing must be the long weekend! Boy it sure was a nice day out today I just hope we do not have to wait until March or April before we get another day like today. as for the snow storm if ever thing is still in place tomorrow then we may be in for a good snow fall, will have to keep an eye out on the temps and the track of the low. Also could get some good lake effect later in the week will have to keep an eye out on that as well. Still 41° here after a high of 44° just a great late November day.
SlimJim
Yeah, they’re talking about a significant W or WNW lake effect event. At least GR sees SOME snow with a WNW flow.
HPC Snowfall Discussion
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfhsd.html
HPC Latest Maps for Surface Low Track and Snowfall:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack.gif
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_composite.gif
18Z GFS coming in. Similar track but probably even stronger than 12Z. Looks good.
Yep, that looks good, a big sub 988 low right over Detroit. Definately the best snow here of any run so far.
I agree michael. now we just need that to hold for another 24hours.
Sounds like the models are in our favor. The excitement is building again!
Oakridge seems to be playing a pretty good game….could be a West Michigan Football sweep this weekend
For those that didn’t get the score… Rockford 26 – Lake Orion 14
Click my name for my newly updated map…
The old map I had is still in effect, as is my friend Matt’s.
This is as extreme as I will go with snow totals though… Thoughts anyone?
hey guys..im chillen with a buddy of mine tonight so i may not blog but keep me updated!…can anything text?
I’m hoping for more Charles, and the new GFS would indicate more, BUT it seems like the actual storms never live up to what the models show.
The new run is also giving us significant snow from overrunning along the slow moving arctic front on Wednesday, and then lake effect to follow.
This looks great! I take it the stormtrack moved a little further north than earlier forcasted?
I would love to see 6 inches in the Grand Rapids Area, Hope the models stay the same if not get even stronger tonight. Keep the updates coming I love reading them.
It moved a little Northwest
i also love reading updates
Bill started a new thread for the WSW
The NWS doesn’t have that Arctic air in here for Thurs/Friday, Bill. What’s up with that?
I was hopeing it would be cold but with out the snow. It’s a pain in the butt to have to shovel the pond off to play hockey. Perfect ice is when its just plain cold and no snow. OR we get it melts and then frezzes right away. But I guess not everyone can get what they want