The
Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories will expire at 7 PM Monday for all of West Michigan. I’m off to speak to the Ottawa Co. Townships Annual Dinner at the Pinnacle Center this evening. Snow showers will diminish to flurries, with flurries continuing tomorrow. A stronger Arctic cold front approaches on Wednesday with more snow or a brief mix changing to snow. Then VERY COLD air arrives (850 mb temperature to -16C Friday AM)…so lake-effect snow is likely. Saturday we get a clipper system and at least light snow. Sunday even COLDER air arrives (-18C - (or 0F) at 850 mb Sunday AM), with more lake-effect. More snow and colder than average for next week Keep the winter coats and snow shovels handy!!
Click here to see advisories/watches/warnings for neighboring states. Oh, and read the posts below and above…this is going to be a wild week of weather!
November 30th, 2008 at 8:59 pm by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
November 29th, 2008 at 6:00 pm
very interesting…….mmmmmmmm snow!
I just gort on to look at the models/data etc and here is this blog entry got WSWatch Yea!
November 29th, 2008 at 6:02 pm
That storm track must’ve changed. I thought it was only going to be an inch or two of snow at most for us. This storm has much moisture to work with from the Gulf. Could it be? I still want to see the models and maps on Sunday morning. Will this verify?
November 29th, 2008 at 6:03 pm
Sounds good to me. Maybe the kids will get a snow day.
November 29th, 2008 at 6:09 pm
Lets keep the updates coming, Love checking this Blog for updates. Also links are awesome too. 6+ inches would be awesome….
November 29th, 2008 at 6:12 pm
some major changes on the models etc, since I was on at 8am this morning, holy smokes…
here HPC for 8″ or greater chances…now I will check the models..
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_08.gif
November 29th, 2008 at 6:14 pm
another updated chart
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/forecast/graphics/MAV/MAV.BSNA24_001.html
hmmm, I think Im getting excited….I was out putting up Christmas lights and then to work for a couple hours, didnt expect this drastic of a change..
November 29th, 2008 at 6:21 pm
Anybody think we’re looking at a possiblity for lake enhancement with this one?
November 29th, 2008 at 6:23 pm
I was surprised, also…I was hoping for some decent snow, but didn’t anticipate being put under a WSW, either. I’m looking forward to this…
November 29th, 2008 at 6:26 pm
man it just doesnt set up any better for me…
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//gfs/18/gfs_pcp024042_m.shtml
November 29th, 2008 at 6:40 pm
Notice anything whacked out about that model, Bob???
The low is over Detroit, but the freezing line is way SOUTH and EAST of the low, and we know that cannot be!!!
I hope I am wrong, but I have a feeling the Low will track even further NW from about Lansing to Saginaw.
November 29th, 2008 at 6:42 pm
As always, the larger systems seem to track further NW than the models predict, I expect that…we shall see as it gets fully together tomorrow!
November 29th, 2008 at 6:48 pm
I’m loving it.. About time winter showed up!
November 29th, 2008 at 6:59 pm
How many of you would like to see a repeat of this whopper????
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=dtx&storyid=19623&source=0
November 29th, 2008 at 7:00 pm
Thanks for the blog Bill!
I’m still leaving my current thoughts up on my map (click name to view)
This is looking like it could be a nice storm. I warned everyone to have the shovels etc ready to go!
November 29th, 2008 at 7:09 pm
I just drove to pick up some takeout and noticed that a lot of people put up the Christmas lights this weekend. The snow falling tomorrow night will look good with the lights on!
November 29th, 2008 at 7:13 pm
Jay me too when I went to the gas station. Lights all over!
November 29th, 2008 at 7:30 pm
Only in Michigan things can change so fast………thanks for all the info Bill!
November 29th, 2008 at 7:53 pm
Roll Tide!!!!!!!!!http://scores.espn.go.com/ncf/recap?gameId=283340333
November 29th, 2008 at 8:01 pm
I am not looking forward to the commute monday AM but I will enjoy watching the snow fall tomorrow while I am painting my dining room! I have not had 1 chance to relax this long weekend. I shopped on friday and today we have ripped the wallpaper down in the dining room and complete redid our bathroom (new paint, new flooring, new toliet and new vanity/sink!) Busy busy hehe.
November 29th, 2008 at 8:12 pm
My latest snowfall map
November 29th, 2008 at 8:17 pm
What is Lame ?
November 29th, 2008 at 8:20 pm
Bill, I see the user Unimpressed is linking porn on this blog, sound like someone needs to do a trace to this boneheads IP location
November 29th, 2008 at 8:28 pm
Lets see grab IP from log, trace to internet provider, view log file for users between 8:00pm and 8:15 who visited woodtv.com, bills blog then ID user / IP / macaddress
November 29th, 2008 at 8:33 pm
WOOHOO!!!!! Here we go!! I am so excited we better get a TON!
November 29th, 2008 at 8:38 pm
From the City of Portland, looks like we (might)be on track for some challenging weather. Mabye 6in or more for our area as the lastest model run shows. We shall wait and see, btw HI Bill!!!
November 29th, 2008 at 8:45 pm
How snow will fall in vicksburg michigan anyone know?
November 29th, 2008 at 9:06 pm
Gah, I wish I could read the models! I’m hoping to get a ton of snow, not just because I’d like a snow day, but also because it’s time we got a decent snowfall.
November 29th, 2008 at 9:40 pm
Alright. I think we should make some predictions.
GR. Area 8″
Holland 7″
Hudsonville/Jenison- 7″
Muskegon to the North 6″
Kalamazoo- 5″
Lansing- 7″
just my thoughts for now
November 29th, 2008 at 9:58 pm
I was wondering. are the watches going to get upgraded to warnings or advisories.
November 29th, 2008 at 10:04 pm
I am sure they will issue updates at the ~4am discussions, Tyler. Might as well get a good night of sleep.
November 29th, 2008 at 10:06 pm
Most likely not until early morning runs but if the current data confirms then it could happen sooner but again most likely not until the morning package.
November 29th, 2008 at 10:06 pm
Perhaps by 4am when they issue the forecast for tomorrow.
November 29th, 2008 at 10:08 pm
Latest NAM (WRF-NMM)Precip
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/displayMod.php?var=eta_sfc_prcp&hours=hr18hr21hr24hr27hr30hr33hr36hr39hr42hr
November 29th, 2008 at 10:08 pm
10pm update out of the Gaylord office…
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE UPCOMING POTENTIAL WINTER STORM…QUICK PEEK AT THE 00Z NAM IS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH EARLIER FORECASTS. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT TREND TO BRING HEAVIER SNOWFALL FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.
Good news for you west side snow lovers, sad for me
November 29th, 2008 at 10:08 pm
I am saying Hastings area will get between 3.7 to 4.6 inches of snow. Southern and eastern Barry Co., I am saying 3.9 to 4.9 inches. The storm center will be about 5 miles east of Hastings. I am saying this by what I have observed from weather maps. Northwest Barry Co.,2.4 to 3.2 inches. My guess is good as anyone’s.(ha,ha) ROLL TIDE! I was living in Alabama when they won their last National Champ. Next weekend will be THE BIG BARN BURNER, Alabama#1 v.s. Florida#2. Monday be a good day to boil my ham outdoors, and make some beans and ham soup. I love cooking outdoors, even when the weather is cold and snowy. Be safe everyone.
November 29th, 2008 at 10:09 pm
Latest MSLP from UCAR:
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/displayMod.php?var=eta_sfc_mslp&hours=hr18hr21hr24hr27hr30hr33hr36hr39hr42hr
November 29th, 2008 at 10:13 pm
I wonder why this happens more in winter than in summer. Would be fun to have a “watch” or “warning” for a good storm in the summer, but here it is cold winter.
Even though they go back to school Monday from their Thanksgiving break, my grandsons already want a snow day. Maybe they’ll get a couple.
November 29th, 2008 at 10:15 pm
I am going with 5-7 inches for all of west michigan. Some areas could see more if things go right.
November 29th, 2008 at 10:21 pm
I HATE SNOW !!!!! BAB ! HUMBUG !!!
November 29th, 2008 at 10:28 pm
Are the winds still looking to come out of the w / sw for LES in Grand Rapids?
November 29th, 2008 at 10:31 pm
The winds look like there gonna be WNW
November 29th, 2008 at 10:37 pm
I think the heavy lake effect is expected to be Wed. into Fri.
November 29th, 2008 at 10:39 pm
Craig, I think that 540 line gets pulled east because of some coastal development. Not a big storm on the coast, but maybe enough to pull some cold air in on the front side.
November 29th, 2008 at 10:43 pm
Winter Storm Warning in Milwaukee for 5-8″. They must be going purely on the GFS.
November 29th, 2008 at 10:45 pm
No big changes on the 00Z GFS. Milwaukee might get some lake enhancement with the NNE wind.
November 29th, 2008 at 10:46 pm
If anything changed on the 00Z, it looked like the heavier precip was a bit farther east, but the low still came up over or just west of Detroit.
November 29th, 2008 at 10:46 pm
The latest GFS has the low with almost the exact track and intensity of the last model run. One slight difference is the amount of precip. is not quite as much as the last run, but still plenty.
November 29th, 2008 at 10:48 pm
Yikes! NWS Milwaukee is calling for the low to move into NE Indiana. That’s getting a little too close for comfort.
November 29th, 2008 at 10:48 pm
Yeah, thats what it looked like to me. Not much to make a big difference. Just the models playing their games.
November 29th, 2008 at 10:49 pm
Boooo!! What the heck happend for us in SE michigan?!?!? Dang it all!
November 29th, 2008 at 10:57 pm
I’m still here, on the phone and stuff lol. Watching and waiting. Leaving my map the way it is for now.
November 29th, 2008 at 10:58 pm
Let it snow! Let it snow! Let it snow! I need a snow day!
November 29th, 2008 at 11:01 pm
NWS Gaylord Discussion at 10pm
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE UPCOMING POTENTIAL WINTER STORM…QUICK PEEK AT
THE 00Z NAM IS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH EARLIER FORECASTS. THERE IS A
VERY SLIGHT TREND TO BRING HEAVIER SNOWFALL FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.
THE WATCH WAS ISSUED WITH THAT EXACT TREND IN MIND. HOWEVER…WILL
FINE-TUNE THE WATCH JUST A BIT..
November 29th, 2008 at 11:02 pm
hey guys..any updates..im at a buddies house playing WII
November 29th, 2008 at 11:07 pm
Nothing new Tyler. Still looks good, less than 18 hours away from the start.
As Bill said in the other post, the rest of the week looks wild too. I can’t wait!
November 29th, 2008 at 11:11 pm
alright keep me posted!
November 29th, 2008 at 11:12 pm
Kyle Underwood just called for 5-7″ in GR.
November 29th, 2008 at 11:16 pm
NWS Detroit HWO 1041pm
A RAIN AND SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY EVENING WITH 2 TO 4
INCHES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AMOUNTS ARE BASED ON A
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH WESTERN OHIO SUNDAY AFTERNOON…NORTH
INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
November 29th, 2008 at 11:17 pm
Just looked at the “bullseye” and yes, the GFS had it right over SW Michigan, but now has it further east.
November 29th, 2008 at 11:18 pm
Just want to report..channel 9 out of Cadillac has GR potentially getting 5-10 my neck 3-5….my feeling it will move more towards the west..and I get the 5-10..GR getting a solid 7-9 and some areas 12 inches..
Can’t wait to see what Bill has to say.
November 29th, 2008 at 11:20 pm
Bill’s right, by Thursday and Friday, we’re in the arctic air and the lake effect is going.
November 29th, 2008 at 11:20 pm
GRR forecast has started the watch start time to 12pm.
MAIN CHANGE TONIGHT WAS TO BUMP UP THE START TIME OF THE WATCH TO
NOON. SREF SUGGESTS THAT PCPN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTION OF LOWER MI BY 15Z OR SO. LATEST RUNS COMING IN SUGGEST THAT
THE CWA IS STILL IN LINE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT.
November 29th, 2008 at 11:48 pm
I think we will know more about this storm, early Sunday A.M. I am still saying the heaviest snow will just be east of Hastings at this time. I would like to see what Bill’s latest thought is on the storm. If the storm hits about 12noon, this could delay people getting back home. If the weather is too bad, I am sure there will be flight delays. If this snow is a wet/heavy with gusty winds, things could get interesting. I know Kyle Underwood at 6pm was calling for about 2 inches or so in GR, now he is calling for 5 to 7 inches. I think Kyle put his neck out too far on the amount of snow GR might get. I think it’s alittle early to be talking significant snow amounts. We will know for sure, when it stops snowing late Monday. By the way, Kyle Underwood is doing a good job.
November 30th, 2008 at 12:02 am
I’m a novice…but could someone tell me, are we getting a massive snow storm on Sunday-Monday, or is this thing coming later in the week?
November 30th, 2008 at 12:06 am
Chris…were getting a pretty healthy snowstorm starting around dinnertime tomorrow night
November 30th, 2008 at 12:38 am
I think the majority of the Area south and east of about Lansing to Benton Harbor will have a Winter Weather Advisory. We’ll see what the latest models say.
November 30th, 2008 at 12:40 am
OK!!! LARRY!! Sorry but have you been looking at the models or are you predicting yourself?
November 30th, 2008 at 12:51 am
(THIS IS AN E-MAIL FROM MY AUNT CARREN AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE)
Hey Brennan,
Late night here at the Weather Office, I know you are getting excited about this Winter Event.. Just to keep you updated on what’s going on I think our weather office has agreed to UPGRADE Lower Michigan into a WINTER STORM WARNING for ALLEGAN, BARRY, EATON to the north. This is the snow totals that we recieved from the latest data coming in. GRR - 9 inches IONIA EAST 9+ (Depends on track) Northern counties NEWAYGO, MONTCALM NORTH 12+ This is a very intense storm Brennan and to let you know (Be careful what you wish for);) Right!! Will you keep you updated through the night.. keep your phone on you.
Carren
November 30th, 2008 at 12:52 am
wow
November 30th, 2008 at 12:54 am
nice Brennan
November 30th, 2008 at 12:56 am
nice! though i would still like to see 12+ for grr
November 30th, 2008 at 12:57 am
9″ is enough..but yea i agree with Brandon
November 30th, 2008 at 12:58 am
>>> Hey Aunt Carren when will they issue the warnings and advisory?
REPLY
….>>> Brennan, expect a ALERT by 6am Sunday Morning.. I’ll call you if we are going to issue it before 6am. Got you covered, hey by the way hows school?
November 30th, 2008 at 12:58 am
nws is also talking about a w-wnw les event thursday-friday that would be nice too
November 30th, 2008 at 12:59 am
i wanna b in contact with someone from the NWS thats not fair :p
November 30th, 2008 at 1:00 am
right!
November 30th, 2008 at 1:03 am
i guess i should work there..could b in contact with myself! lol
November 30th, 2008 at 1:05 am
e-mail is carrenwarner@michigan.usa.com vary busy but she will get to you
November 30th, 2008 at 1:07 am
thanks brennan
November 30th, 2008 at 1:14 am
I just woke up to blow my nose (came down with a doozer of a cold yesterday) and checking in on things. I was starting to get the “dry slot blues” before I went to bed. Now it is looking likely that areas from BC/Lansing/Saginaw Bay east are gonna get dry slotted with this one. I had a feeling that was going to happen. Sorry direfloyd, Bob P and Sherri.
November 30th, 2008 at 1:19 am
my aunt gave me a snow fall map !! i dont know how to post it
November 30th, 2008 at 1:19 am
starting to show light precip by south bend
November 30th, 2008 at 1:19 am
Wow Brennan.. That’s something. Does she know you posted her email on a public blog? lol
Well thanks for the info! I rather expected a winter storm warning by the AM personally. This is going to be fun, and I am fully prepared, so now we wait.
Goodnight everyone!
November 30th, 2008 at 1:22 am
Charles update the snow map
November 30th, 2008 at 1:42 am
hey brennan can you forward her email to me michiganfreak2008@yahoo.com
November 30th, 2008 at 1:46 am
It’s about time we get something here in GR. Bring it on!!
November 30th, 2008 at 1:49 am
sent
November 30th, 2008 at 1:57 am
looks nice Brennan..purty colors lol
November 30th, 2008 at 2:03 am
OK THE MAP IS IN!!! SHE HAD MADE THE WARNINGS AND WATCH MAP FOR 6am SUNDAY!!!
November 30th, 2008 at 2:04 am
send it to me brennan?
November 30th, 2008 at 2:06 am
That’s pretty cool you have a relative that works for the NWS.
November 30th, 2008 at 2:12 am
yeah the snow amounts have changed
November 30th, 2008 at 2:14 am
Brennan could you send me those maps to my email please?
lionsfan40@yahoo.com thanks
November 30th, 2008 at 2:15 am
could you send me the maps? ive already got the first one..
November 30th, 2008 at 2:16 am
hi Brennan, if u wouldnt mind sending maps to me? jeffschueller@sbcglobal.net ty !!
November 30th, 2008 at 2:26 am
wow i agree, different look at the totals
November 30th, 2008 at 2:28 am
Wow, colors! Thanks Brennan!
November 30th, 2008 at 2:29 am
another update at 3am
November 30th, 2008 at 2:30 am
havnt been up this late in a long time..very tired
November 30th, 2008 at 2:31 am
brennan can you send a map to tomborgia@sbcglobal.net
November 30th, 2008 at 2:31 am
is it me or does the angle of the snow totals had changed, if that makes sense:)
November 30th, 2008 at 2:32 am
I don’t agree with the map
November 30th, 2008 at 2:33 am
Someone just host that map somewhere so we don’t have a hundred people asking for it in an email.
Still pissed at these pop-ups on this site now.
November 30th, 2008 at 2:33 am
was thinking that , like a different storm lol
November 30th, 2008 at 2:39 am
cowholy..im gettinnnn tiiirreedd…
November 30th, 2008 at 2:39 am
Someone should put the map on their web site or somehow copy and paste it on
their site for the rest of us to see it.
November 30th, 2008 at 2:42 am
http://68.142.200.12/us.f362.mail.yahoo.com/ya/securedownload?fid=Inbox&mid=1_1208099_AOhEv9EAAUDcSTI%2BEgTtZCAohOU&pid=2&tnef=&YY=1228029856827&newid=1&clean=0&inline=1&cred=Ywt4SMeC9FP4tX_Q2c5z1UFtax7mEA.2YUUOqSSqWlq9ZDDJeiIKuIQ_2j04sz1Ae1Z8Cx5lgK2vGLu2FmU9PgxszseL5vlms9xNa_P2RmjgMTFEUXoq&ts=1228030900&partner=ymail&sig=FCzzmHKbF0V25v6rwXz.qg–
try this
November 30th, 2008 at 2:43 am
ok! the map just got updated to something WEIRD! and accurate!
November 30th, 2008 at 2:44 am
http://68.142.200.12/us.f362.mail.yahoo.com/ya/securedownload?fid=Inbox&mid=1_1208099_AOhEv9EAAUDcSTI%2BEgTtZCAohOU&pid=3&tnef=&YY=1228029856829&newid=1&clean=0&inline=1&cred=uhmwjPV881OctGzS0UJ2ICGz16AQbNllkd6uqs3_rFfBIaF8.IaJfubp.DysGxLEKTclqLRoYp3fVhF27QJxxEIWVih1oL8SpLtNq1rNggqGmp5olv7U&ts=1228031050&partner=ymail&sig=39ZNl8RwGI6RtrHavIziig– and heres the snowfall
November 30th, 2008 at 2:45 am
disregard those links i did something wrong
November 30th, 2008 at 2:46 am
HOLY CRAP!!!!! GUYS IM SENDING YOU A NEW MAP!
November 30th, 2008 at 2:46 am
good or bad?
November 30th, 2008 at 2:49 am
WOW, if this pans out we will be digging out BIGTIME! ty
November 30th, 2008 at 2:50 am
Tyler, what’s the word in Jenison?
November 30th, 2008 at 2:50 am
wow! that puts me in the 12″+ range!
November 30th, 2008 at 2:50 am
what u mean steve?
November 30th, 2008 at 2:51 am
Send me the two maps at Brennan also, the first one and newest one
charlesgrichard@yahoo.com
thanks
November 30th, 2008 at 2:51 am
What’s up?
And where’s this new map?
November 30th, 2008 at 2:52 am
Too many people posting right now. I’m drinking beer. You ever drink, Tyler?
November 30th, 2008 at 2:52 am
ok! the maps are going crazy my aunt said… shes going to send a new one in 15 mins
November 30th, 2008 at 2:52 am
to good to be true though:) i guess we will have to wait and see. dont wanna get hopes up as of yet, plenty time for changes. looking good though!
November 30th, 2008 at 2:53 am
How far is Grandville from Jenison. I need to drive up there tomorrow. Will this be good in this weather?
November 30th, 2008 at 2:53 am
ummm no?
November 30th, 2008 at 2:54 am
Will I at least be able to make it, though? Not sure what to do.
November 30th, 2008 at 2:55 am
when are you coming?
November 30th, 2008 at 2:56 am
MAPS IN!!! EVERYONE HERE IT IS! FINAL ONE UNTIL 6am! GET READY IM SENDING TO TYLER… TYLER POST THIS ONLINE!
November 30th, 2008 at 2:57 am
ill try to see if i can
November 30th, 2008 at 2:59 am
I have to be up there around 3:00.
November 30th, 2008 at 2:59 am
http://thumbp2.mail.mud.yahoo.com/tn?sid=1396624246&mid=AOhEv9EAABtISTJHdArl1WMBKEk&partid=2&f=362&fid=Inbox
see if this works
November 30th, 2008 at 2:59 am
http://thumbp2.mail.mud.yahoo.com/tn?sid=1396624246&mid=AOhEv9EAABtISTJHdArl1WMBKEk&partid=2&f=362&fid=Inbox
November 30th, 2008 at 3:00 am
http://by102w.bay102.mail.live.com/att/GetAttachment.aspx?tnail=1&messageId=4df8caf6-091f-4df4-994c-f31e3d318f47&Aux=44|0|8CB20D85472EF90|
November 30th, 2008 at 3:00 am
http://us.mg1.mail.yahoo.com/ya/download?fid=Inbox&mid=1_1211454_AOhEv9EAABtISTJHdArl1WMBKEk&pid=3&tnef=&YY=1228031868047&newid=1&clean=0&inline=1
November 30th, 2008 at 3:00 am
Sorry, Forbidden.
You don’t have permission to access this URL on this server.
Please check the URL for proper spelling and capitalization. If you’re having trouble locating a destination on Yahoo!, try visiting the Yahoo! home page or look through a list of Yahoo!’s online services. Also, you may find what you’re looking for if you try searching below.
I got this for some reason
November 30th, 2008 at 3:01 am
Sorry, Forbidden.
November 30th, 2008 at 3:01 am
sorry guys thats the best i can do…first 2 are snowfall and the last is the warning map
November 30th, 2008 at 3:01 am
im sorry i cannot access that link. can you send it here again jeffschueller@sbcglobal.net ty!!!
November 30th, 2008 at 3:02 am
Wow at the last one.
November 30th, 2008 at 3:02 am
i sent it to you jeff
November 30th, 2008 at 3:03 am
Brennan, could send me the 3 maps too
charlesgrichard@yahoo.com
Thank you
November 30th, 2008 at 3:04 am
i send it to chuck and tinytim
November 30th, 2008 at 3:05 am
a BIG thanks Tyler! still looks impressive:)
November 30th, 2008 at 3:06 am
no problem..im going to spend quality time w/ my bed..goodnight all
November 30th, 2008 at 3:06 am
thank you
November 30th, 2008 at 3:07 am
http://weathermaps.myphotoalbum.com
November 30th, 2008 at 3:14 am
November 30th, 2008 at 3:53 am
…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 PM EST
MONDAY…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY
TO 4 PM EST MONDAY. THIS IS AN UPGRADE FROM THE WINTER STORM WATCH.
SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
AND SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO UNDER
AT MILE. ROADS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY.
THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND DIMINISH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 6 TO 8 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED FROM
NOON TODAY THROUGH NOON MONDAY.
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN
AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL…KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT…
FOOD…AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.
November 30th, 2008 at 3:57 am
NWS DETROIT Morning AFD
UPGRADED MOST OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH AREA TO A WARNING IN THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE EXPECTATION OF SNOW ACCUMULATION EXCEEDING
6 INCHES BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING AND/OR EXCEEDING 8 INCHES DURING
THE 24 PERIOD INCLUDING TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION TO THE
WARNING AREA IS FOR ST CLAIR, MACOMB, AND OAKLAND COUNTIES WHICH ARE
UNDER A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LOWER SNOW ACCUMULATION AND MORE
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. THE ADVISORY ALSO INCLUDES WASHTENAW COUNTY
AND DIVIDES THE WARNING AREA FROM THE AREA NEAR THE OHIO BORDER,
INCLUDING DETROIT, THAT HAS NO HEADLINES FOR NOW.
http://kamala.cod.edu/mi/latest.fxus63.KDTX.html
NWS GRAND RAPIDS AFD from this morning:
THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND SHOWING GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. THEY ALL SHOW A
SWATH OF SNOW COVERING MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. AS THE TRACK OF THE LOW MOVES FROM SRN INDIANA THROUGH NW
OHIO TO NEAR DETROIT…THE HEART OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE SOME
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS. BUFKIT/SREF/LOCAL SNOW ALGORITHM ALL SHOW 6-8 IN
SNOWS THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH NOON MONDAY.
WITH THAT IN MIND WE UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING. THIS SHOULD BE A WET SNOW THAT WILL MAKE FOR SLIPPERY
TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON ONE OF THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.
http://kamala.cod.edu/mi/latest.fxus63.KGRR.html
November 30th, 2008 at 4:02 am
Winter Storm Warning out now, guys!
November 30th, 2008 at 4:05 am
nice
November 30th, 2008 at 5:41 am
Im ready to roll for this one, Im at work this early morning to finish a big project early, so I can be ready for the storm later today, havent looked at the models yet, but seeing Im in the “warned” area makes me happy, now to just keep that NW”ward” track from taking me oout of it…
November 30th, 2008 at 5:44 am
Was coming in to let you know the warning was issued about 2 hours ago, but my computer decided to bog down (probably because I was on ebay for 3 hours, lol), but I see that ya’ll already know! Anyhoo, guess I should be prepared for some good snow up here, eh? Unless of course it changes like it did how many times last year…. Suppose I should call the ex and let him know he might wanna bring my son home a little earlier tonight than usual so he doesn’t have to drive in it. Should probably start sometime this afternoon, right?
BTW, hope you all had a blessed Thanksgiving! :o)
Tanya
November 30th, 2008 at 5:46 am
Mornin’ Bob! Ya know, it’s funny-I hate winter…cant stand snow and cold…but I’m actually hoping for a real whopper up here! Guess cause it’s early. Come February (if not sooner) you can remind me that I was once cheering the snow on, K? lol
Drive careful if it’s started before you can get out of there…
Tanya
November 30th, 2008 at 5:54 am
yes been watching radar, looks like moisture is getting pulled into the system really good now heres the link http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=42.88146&lon=-85.53540&zoom=5&type=ter&units=english&rad=1&rad.num=6&rad.spd=25&rad.opa=70&rad.stm=1&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0
November 30th, 2008 at 5:57 am
I’m surely no expert but it looks like it’s headed this way to me! Thanks for the link Jeff! I’ve got a different computer so don’t have all the links I had last winter anymore.
November 30th, 2008 at 5:58 am
hi Tanya,np just wanna see a good dumping outta this:)
November 30th, 2008 at 6:02 am
The RUC shows that low moving from N Kentucky straight north to Lansing..Hope thats wrong
November 30th, 2008 at 6:04 am
Hi Tanya,
The models play with these storms all the time, but It looks like you will be getting some good snow out of this, this is the 8″ potential for forecasted snow from HPC
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day1_psnow_gt_08.gif
November 30th, 2008 at 6:07 am
Here is The nam from earlier, waiting for updates
http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getptype.php?region=us&model=nam&run=00&fhr=99&field=ptype
November 30th, 2008 at 6:08 am
Thanks Bob. I checked out 9and10’s site and they’re calling for up to 10″ as far south as here-of course they dont mention south of me. I often compare their forecasts to 8’s and they’re almost always off with everything from temps to precip but it’s fun to compare. Maybe cause I haven’t slept yet is why I find it amusing, lol.
My oldest wants me to take him skiing this winter-I don’t ski, haven’t in years, and surely don’t want to drive him up north to his usual slopes and sit there all day while he skis. Maybe tomorrow he can ski down the snow piles from the plows! ;o)~
November 30th, 2008 at 6:12 am
NAM is more over Pontiac vs detroit
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/cgi-bin/models/ipsm_looper.cgi?PROD=2008113006_SYS_NAM_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS
November 30th, 2008 at 6:14 am
Craig,
you awake Man?
Whats your input…
well Im off to finish some work, Ill check back in around 9am!
Everybody, blow hard to the SE, keep that Low over between Detroit and cedar point…
November 30th, 2008 at 6:14 am
If I’m looking at that last one right, the East coast is in for a doozy too…
November 30th, 2008 at 6:15 am
yeah Bob , NAM looks promising
November 30th, 2008 at 6:17 am
Jeff, we need to keep that low pressure slightly more SE for a good one thru here…Ionia/St.Johns…..But either way…as long as it does not head over Lansing, we should see some quick hvy snow!
November 30th, 2008 at 6:19 am
Nice snows breaking out in Central Ill, Ok now Im gone for awhile..
PONTIAC LGT SNOW 37 36 93 NE10 29.44F
BLOOMINGTON SNOW 30 30 100 NE13 29.40F VSB 1/2 WCI 20
DECATUR LGT SNOW 33 32 96 N6 29.40F FOG WCI 28
PEORIA LGT SNOW 33 31 92 NE9 29.43F VSB 1 WCI 25
LACON* LGT SNOW 34 32 90 N6 29.45F WCI 29
LINCOLN* LGT SNOW 32 32 99 NE6 29.41F WCI 26
SPRINGFIELD LGT SNOW 34 32 93 NE8 29.41F VSB 1 WCI 27
TAYLORVILLE LGT SNOW 34 34 100 CALM 29.39F VSB 3/4
November 30th, 2008 at 6:20 am
I suppose it would be a good idea for me to get my Christmas lights up on my front porch columns this afternoon, eh? Got the inside done-took me 5 days (like a mini-Frankenmuth in here!) but been procrastinating on the outside what with being gone for Thanksgiving and all that. Eh well, I needed something to do today besides sleep anyway, huh? haha
November 30th, 2008 at 6:20 am
Have a good day Bob!
November 30th, 2008 at 6:25 am
Just got a YM from my friend in Crown Pointe, IN…she says it’s “snowing like a ….” there right now with huge flakes and pretty windy.
November 30th, 2008 at 6:28 am
channel 8 weather is saying 3-6 inches.
November 30th, 2008 at 6:41 am
Yea, with potential for 8″ in the northern part of the area (that’d be me, lol). She is saying it’s going to be starting earlier than I had thought tho from what I’d heard during the overnight on the weather channel.
November 30th, 2008 at 6:44 am
I was in Montrose (Genessee County) Wed-Sat and it was interesting seeing snow here, then areas of no snow, back to areas of more snow etc on the drive over there. I had toyed with he idea of staying until this afternoon-glad I didn’t now!
BTW-All of you that must drive in this, provided it gets the way it’s lookin like it’s gonna, please do take good care!
November 30th, 2008 at 6:44 am
true, one thing forsure its going to get white
November 30th, 2008 at 6:46 am
I updated my map but no major changes. I lowered 1 county in s.e. lower to 2-4 and will drop the 2 far s.e. counties shortly to show 1-2 inch totals, otherwise I feel good about the map. I like the idea of a band somewhere from GRR to Tawas having 8 to 10 inch amounts with an issolated spot up to 12 inches ie Midland or West Branch as good NE winds off lake Huron should add an inch to three in those areas or nearby, plus the storm will be deeper as it moves to the north-east. In those areas I expect we could see the snow start a touch faster due to lake effect and this is something that does happen here on these types of winter storms.
November 30th, 2008 at 6:46 am
Brennan Prill, I look at maps and past history of snow storms that we have gotten here in Hastings/Barry Co. I do now think we will get more snow than what I said we might get last night. I am still saying the snow storm or the heaviest snows will be just east of Hastings. I look at maps and see what angle the storms are coming in, and go by past winter storms patterns etc. My guess are not too far off(most of the time). This could turn into a major snow storm. Brennan, I enjoy your comments.
November 30th, 2008 at 6:51 am
I hope people will take their time and drive with care today, during this snow storm. Today is one of the busiest travel days of the year. Also, we haven’t had much snow so far this season, alot of people will forget how to drive in the snow.
November 30th, 2008 at 6:58 am
Pressure falls continue to point to central IN to around Toledo or just to the northwest, so the track to Detroit or near looks ok
November 30th, 2008 at 7:01 am
From looking at the radar, there’s a big dry slot west of the heaviest precip being pulled upwards…Looks like GR-east gets alot of heavy snow late-morning early afternoon, and areas west of there won’t pick up snow nearly as quick. My 2 cents.
November 30th, 2008 at 7:15 am
Tim, those dry slots can really mess up a good snow storm. It has happen many times. I think last winter we had a big snow storm heading our way, a dry slot came in and we got almost nothing. I just love Michigan weather.
November 30th, 2008 at 7:41 am
I hope everyone got all their shopping done because the roads are going to deteriorate over the next 48 hours.
November 30th, 2008 at 8:18 am
Good morning everyone! Its a cool 32° here this AM and I see everlong is in snow mode LOL. Looking at the track of the low a couple of things come to my mind..one is how much warm air is going to get pulled in the the low? Is the low going to get still deeper yet? (has been the model trend) if it all plays out there could be a good strip of 8-12 inch snow fall. If the track stay near Detroit (and dose not move further west) it might get real windy over in the Bay City area as the wind come down the length of Lake Huron and Saginaw Bay. I dont like cold and snow BUT I do like a good storm.
SlimJim
November 30th, 2008 at 8:22 am
All right, I like the fact that we have warnings, but this mornings models seem to pull a lot of the heavier precip farther east. Looks like they are making the shifting more of the moisture and energy to the coast. I don’t like that.
November 30th, 2008 at 8:29 am
It looks like chicago is going to get dryslotted bigtime.
November 30th, 2008 at 8:39 am
I would like to see that storm move a little more eastward, I realize it is forecasted that NNE movement, but…
November 30th, 2008 at 8:41 am
It looks like most of us here in SW Michigan are going to get a huge dry slot.. That dry slot is the Low and its much further west than it should be for us to get a good storm. I’m not sold on this one yet.
November 30th, 2008 at 8:43 am
I’ve had dry slot depression all night, boys!