Christmas is looking white!
December 3rd, 2008 at 9:48 pm by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
<–8-14 Day Outlook from CPC for Dec. 11-17 (click to enlarge). This is what I wrote on my blog on Oct. 2: “…when you have this pattern it’s usually cold and snowy in early winter (esp. December)”. This is from my blog on Oct. 21: “I’ve looked at sunspot activity, Arctic Ice cover, current cold across northern North America, what happens following years with few days over 90 degrees in the summer (see 1985 and 1989…both years with VERY cold Decembers in West Michigan).” This is from my blog on Oct. 28: “With the Arctic Oscillation going negative…this cold air is going to build. I think that means we could see some very cold air in Michigan starting around Nov. 15-21 and continuing at least through December.” This is from my blog on Oct. 30: “I’m still looking at some pretty cold (and occasionally snowy) weather for late November and December.” This is from my blog on Nov. 6: “I still think we are in for a cold, snowy period of weather from late November through December.” OK…I’m not just here to gloat, but I do get irked when people say that I work 3 minutes a day and they say he’s never right. I put a lot of work into tracking the weather for West Michigan. I’m on vacation this week, but I’m still here digging into the models, the upper air data, etc to keep the blog fresh. I’m certainly not right all the time…but we do get quite a few forecasts right and when you know what’s coming, you and your family – perhaps your business or the governments that have to plow and salt our streets – can be plan ahead and be prepared (I’m an Eagle Scout and that’s the Boy Scout motto..”Be Prepared”…so I’m a good scout, trying to help you out, with a shout, about the clout of Old Man Winter in December). I write on the blog and you can go back and check how I’ve been doing. NOW – look at the map. This is for Dec. 11-17…anyone want to go to Miami? Allegiant is running some cheap fares out of Lansing this month to Florida. Hey WOOD sales dept. – give Allegiant a call – they should be advertising here on my blog! Ha! Now that’s a COLD FORECAST…only the Florida peninsula is expected to be warmer than average! That’s 41 of the lower 48 states with colder than average temperatures! I didn’t post the map but the 8-14 day precipitation forecast is above normal for Lower Michigan. Below normal temps. plus above normal precipitation means…SNOW!!! Above average lake-effect snow…and a WSW to ENE storm track that will put Michigan at least on the northwestern edge of synoptic snow events. OH…one more note…for a long time now I’ve also been forecasting a January thaw…so if you’re not a fan of winter…hang in there…and you can clip this post and see if I’m right.
I know Craig. shhhhhhhh dont tell anyone….Like in the UP you cant take anything less than a 8pt…
how much snow is Byron Center looking at tonight. I see the lake effect is really going now over BC.
I think some Kent county schools will close not positive, but Kent could get quit a bit of snow if the W winds were strong enough to carry the heavy snow inland.
The LES is really firing up now hoping for a lot, maybe even a snow day!!!!!
Dale … you’ve got mail.
Rhymes with a reason haha
Cold, clear, and snow on the ground..
*turns on the space heater*
Boy I love those things
… Disagree with schools
hey do u guys think there might be a change that the zeeland schools close tomarrow?
Brennan, What do you mean disagree with schools?
Dan, Lowell Schools wont Close.. Grand Rapids Public Wont or Rockford or Forest Hills
Really starting to come down again here in Holland
Idk, If we get a lot Rockford will close trust me I know Rockford I go there and they closed for the 4-5 inches.
What does everyone think about the Winter storm watch?
I mean do u think one will come out for Ottawa, Muskegon, Newayo, and Oceana counties to the north!!!
Jevon Disagree
do u think one will be issued?
brennan do you know how to forecast weather?
Jevon, In the NWS discussion it sounded like they thought there would be heavy snow in those areas, but that the wind direction would be changing enough to keep any one area from reaching warning thresholds. It will be close though, so that could change. Personally, I’m hoping for more W than S so Kent can get in on it too.
Mainly light snow here, picks up a little from time to time. Looks like it’s really coming down in SW Kent and eastern Ottawa.
Taint diddly here, michael g. The pops are coming down pretty heavy, though.
Michael and Brennen…according to the GFS we will get a solid WSW-SW wind from the clipper Saturday…So I am thinking a Winter Storm Watch for at least the counties I mentioned soon!!! Plus Under the GFS precip. model it says we will get heavy snow in the favorable WSW-SW wind belt…which is usually from Muskegon northward!!
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
408 PM EST THU DEC 4 2008
LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
051245-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
408 PM EST THU DEC 4 2008
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN…
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN…AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN…LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.
.DAY ONE…TONIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
THROUGH TONIGHT…WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
SEE ONGOING WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL WILL BRING ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON SATURDAY
NIGHT.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT…
SPOTTERS…PLEASE RELAY SNOWFALL REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
$$
JPB
Sorry posred the wrong on earlier!!!
Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK…UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
120 PM EST THU DEC 4 2008
MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-051115-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
120 PM EST THU DEC 4 2008
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.
.DAY ONE…THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A LET UP IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON…BUT THEY ONCE AGAIN BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND
INTENSE BY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 7 INCHES
IS EXPECTED FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY ON FRIDAY. THE HEAVIEST
SNOW WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF ALLEGAN…BARRY AND OTTAWA
COUNTIES WITH NORTHERN PORTIONS VAN BUREN AND KALAMAZOO COUNTIES AND
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF KENT COUNTIES ALSO SEEING THE HEAVIER SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. OUTSIDE OF THESE COUNTIES SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY LESS THAN TWO INCHES.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SNOW REMAINS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEDNESDAY…AS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WILL BE IN A COLD AND
SNOWY PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TURNING MUCH COLDER NEXT WEEK
AS ARCTIC AIR POURS INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW APPEARS TO BE ON SATURDAY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 131.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT…
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
$$
Charles
u got mail!
guys lets not argue about the weather, its here to talk about, try to figure out and for most of us frankly, make some sort of educated guess about what is going to happen. Will there be school? Probably! Will it snow? Probably! Will schools be closed? Probably some!!! This is going to be a long system and with Lake effect we just don’t know for sure!
Keep it calm, keep it cool and remember that every day is a gift, that why it is called the PRESENT!
You may be right Jevon, and I do expect at least advisory level snowfall, but I was basing my statement on this from the NWS…..
AS THE ALBERTA CLIPPER COMES IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ENHANCED EVENT SETS UP. I WOULD HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR THIS EVENT BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS CONTINUE TO
SHIFT IN TIME AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SO NO ONE LOCATION WILL
GET A CONCENTRATION OF HEAVY SNOWFALL. EVEN SO… AREAS LOCATED
WEST OF US-131 AND NORTH OF MUSKEGON WILL SEE THE MOST SNOW FROM
THIS EVENT. MOST OF THAT WILL FALL BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z ON SATURDAY.
THERE IS ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM THE ENTIRE CWA WILL
SEE SNOW FROM THIS BUT AREAS WEST OF US-131 AND NORTH OF MKG WILL
SEE THE MOST SNOW
Don’t let those pops get TOO heavy Craig, or the forecast will be for a somewhat fuzzy morning. :-0
By the way, it is snowing quite nicely now. Medium sized flakes with very little wind. Looks like a good band is getting ready to move in here with even a few yellow returns showing up. NICE!
Sounds like they’re thinking about to me in that discussion! Michael do you want the website to the GFS that I use?
Jevon I do.
NWS now forcasting 5 inch overnight in PP that might as well be warning snow as that will make it bad driving in the am!
Here ya go Michael g……
0530 PM SNOW PINE STUMP JUNCTION 46.57N 85.58W
12/04/2008 E15.5 INCH LUCE MI PUBLIC
15 TO 16 INCHES SINCE MIDNIGHT. 3 TO 4 INCHES SINCE 9AM
UM, I don’t think we will reach WINTER STORM WATCH level… maybe monday night we will!
Hey Brennan what is the story with the storm for mon/tues, how much snow are we talking?
Dan
Untill the models move that storm more northward, the latest forecast is a couple inches….possible..mostly a detroit area snow,& southward..
Aw that should move more NW just like the last storm we had and all the other storms we had last season.
What is the big deal with getting a WATCH? It’s the WARNING that wakes me up!!!
michael, fuzzy accumulations are better than nothing. Thanks for ‘keepin’ an eye on me, tho!!!
Snowbands finally developing better. If the bands stay consistant it’s looking good.
Definatly better development on the SE side of Holland….very pretty outside
Southwest Kent county here and I have gotten about 4-5 inches of snow since 5pm. Snowing hard right now, hopefully this band stays over me and I should end up with 7-9 inches of lake effect.
WOW LET IT SNOW (L)ET (E)IT (S)now!
Nice Tom! It looks like you’re getting hammered there. Light to moderate snow continues here, up to 1.5-2″ so I won’t complain. And the Wings won…not a bad night.
Heres a computer model website that I use:
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/models.php
My own take on that storm for early next week is that we’ll see some snow from the northern stream system, but the big storm will head up the east coast for a change. Hope I’m wrong about that one.
As seen here, http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NTP&rid=GRR&loop=yes there is a area from East of Grand Haven down to Hudsonville and around Grandville and Walker that’s getting the heaviest snow, but as the bands develop, it looks like the accumulations will start expanding westward as the bands stay in place. Quite localized once again.
Bands look kind of disorganzied right now, but are showing more of a west to east orientation. Should spread light accumulations (1-4″) over most of the area from Muskegon and Kent counties to the south tonight and tomorrow morning. Night all.
hmmmmmmmmm LES is kicking it in high gear!!!!!!!!!
Thanks Bill, for your superior forecasting. Enjoy these vacation days.
The wedding plans are set, the invitations are sent for this once in a lifetime fantasy wedding…here is the question…. Will I be looking at heavy heavy snow on the 27th of December?
bill you are the best !!! I want to become a meteroligest when i grow up so thanks for telling us some cool facts