A Special Full Moon
December 11th, 2008 at 5:23 pm by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
The full moon Friday Night (called the “Cold Moon”) is the biggest and brightest of 2008. In fact, it will be 30% brighter and 14% larger than the other full moons of 2008. The moon will be only 221, 560 miles from Earth, making it the closest full moon since 1993. The moon will then move away from the Earth to a distance of 252, 650 on Dec. 26. The full moon closest to the Winter Solstice (Dec. 21) is also the full moon that climbs highest in the sky here in Michigan during the year. The moon will be at an angle of 73.4 deg. above the southern horizon at midnight tonight. We also have a snowcover, which will help illuminate the evening. Don’t wait until tomorrow night, catch a glimpse of the moon tonight. Looking to the southwest in the evening, you can still see the bright planets Venus and Jupiter. You can also watch for meteors or shooting stars. The next three nights are the peak of the Geminid Meteor Shower.
Big…Big Moon
I want to see the meteor shower, keep them clouds away
If the clouds stay away I might be able to see the meteors from my back yard. Too many lights in front.
Nice sunset tonight and the moon looks huge through the light shroud of cloud! Nothing on the storm front to get excited about in the next week. That makes me depressed! LOL Could be Xanax time…
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_slp_180l.gif
heres something to talk about
Some hope on the horizon. Thanks for the tease, Tyler!! LOL
lol Sorry Craig..i wanna see the 00z GFS
Bill what’s the closest the Moon has gotten to Earth?
Snowstorm? Please wait till I am moved Saturday?!!
)
O M G ! I wish I would have brought my camera when I went up to Howard City today!! So many photos ops I missed with that Moon Rise!!
It’s so awesome outside right now you can see EVERYTHING.
I love driving in a full moon. You can’t see anything when there’s a new moon.
that talk is not accepted here
Here come the lunatics. Full moon, close proximity, Friday. It’s going to be a wild ride.
Since when does Charles Russell not have his camera, what is the world coming to?
Im shocked Charles, whats happening to ya young man?
Nice morning here 22* and some flakes a falling!
Why can’t we be like North Dakota and have a Blizzard Watch posted for the ENTIRE state!!!
Bill,
How big of a event will the return moisture be on Tuesday afternoon?
With the euro showing a decent snow?
I remember a few years back, we had a return flow (overrunning event, I think a Jet Max helped it) it snowed in less than 6hrs 8″, hvy wet snow, think this tues event has some potential of better than 4″?
Cause we be Michigan Craig, we get ours in increments..LOL
wow, this would mean work for me on christmas..
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_pcp_312m.gif
Just once, I’d like to be under a Blizzard Warning over on this side of the state. Is that toooooo much to ask for????
That xmas storm is, at least, promising. Hope it is a snow event, not creepy crud!!!
How much of this disappears on Sunday, on the strong SW wind??
http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/Northern_Great_Lakes/nsm_depth/200812/nsm_depth_2008121105_Northern_Great_Lakes.jpg
29.5% of US has snowcover
Craig, we are actually looking good for some snowy weather after Monday next week, right on thru weekend of next week..
we shall see eh?
Wow, that Blizzard watch covers a lot of land..
http://www.weather.gov/largemap.php
I just hope for decent driving conditions this weekend. I am driving to Honor to visit my mother and that ain’t a fun drive in bad weather.
Snowing real hard right now. almost an inch of new snow in the last couple of hours
I guess I forecasted that last storm pretty good. I’m looking ahead toward christmas time and some models especially the ones that handled this last storm have a very potent storm around the 25th. A strong area of high pressure to the north/northeast of michigan and a strong area of low pressure over the four corners region is ramping up a whopper of a storm. Long range precip numbers have over 4 inches of rain in the south central states and over 2 inches of precip from iowa, illinois southern wisconsin and all of the lower michigan. The bad part of this (as of yet) is that 540 line is from chicago to saginaw bay, but my guess is that it will be from central illinois to detroit. Just for the fact of a strong high to the north will push the rain/snow line to the border of michigan. If temperatures hold in the 20s for most of duration of this storm and using the snow tools for that temp. that will translate into a foot or more of snow from houghton lake down to about the kalamazoo/jackson line. This storm will need to be monitored very, very closely, the models were two weeks out on this last storm and did a really good job on the forecast, the bad part was that 540 line was all over the map on every model run thats why it was hard for me to determine where the heaviest snow was going to fall. Speaking of cold air in siberia the high never got above -77 yesterday. Models are now hinting at that davis straits high rebuilding itself again after the new year. So maybe january will not be as warm as forecasted.
Winter weather advisory for us…..
Tyler: Looks like a storm next Friday from your post. Although, it seems to me the GFS has been a little SW of actual low pressure tracks, which might have warmer air advect in with a further NW track through SW lower. Hope we get a nice storm in time for Christmas, so we’ll have to keep a close eye on this one.
Kevin: A Christmas storm would be great! The long range GFS models have been fairly accurate this winter, given the active pattern. Seems like a very wide storm deformation zone with heavy snowfall from Houghton Lk to K-zoo. We’ll have to keep watch of the storm track and the 540 line. Do you think that some of the frigid air bottled up in Siberia will shake loose and head to AK, Canada, and eventually to the Northern US in January? That would go against the typical January thaw we usually have in MI…
Kevin please educate me. I keep hearing about this 540 line. What is it exactly? I am interpreting it to be a special line that determines rain or snow. Can you explain it better and can you give an example of how the 540 line can make a difference in MI? Example would be let’s say the 540 line is going from Benton harbor to Saginaw would it be snow north of line and rain south with mixed precipitation on the line? Just curious.
So as soon as the winter advisory came out ..so did the sun. Funny. We have had a beautiful snow all morning – about an inch.
James all that the 540 line is basically the 32 degree mark. Its the isotherm on a map that meteorologists follow when analyzing storm systems to tell whether or not its rain, mix or snow. It can also help in determining what type of snow, if your closer to the 540 it will be a heavy wet snow (if its all snow) and the farther you go into the northern or northwestern parts say the 526 line then you have more of a fluffier type of snow. It gives forecasters an idea what type of temp. is in the air above the ground so when forecasting snow they can you use many types of snow tools for how much your going to get in a given area. Hope this will help you. I noticed this last model run here that the jet stream is realigning itself, which I think will have these fast moving type storm systems in the flow. Not really seeing any major cold spells or warm spells either, but an active storm track. Looking between christmas and new years (hard to believe all ready) at a possible pattern shift toward beginning parts of january. I got to believe that the first few weeks of january could be very stormy as what I can start to see way out in the pacific as a series of strong storms are forming out toward asia, and when I start to see that then the polar/tropical jets get together within a 3-4 week period out. Which will effect the upper plains and great lakes. The next month is going to get interesting I think.
Thanks Kevin I was thinking the 540 line had something to do with 32 degrees.
wow Kevin,
Thanks for teh detail! I learning something new today and that makes it a great day. It is people like you in the blogs that make it fun for all of us to learn. Thanks again!
ok wow that last post was FULL of grammar errors. sorry!
Some definitions:
Isotherm: A line of connecting equal points of temperature.
Thickness is the distance or how thick it is between 2 pressure levels.
based on average temperature and average moisture level between the 2 levels. Average Virtual temperature for between the 2 levels say 1000-500mb gives us the thickness.
Virtual Temperature
The virtual temperature is the temperature a parcel which contains no moisture would have to equal the density of a parcel at a specific temperature and humidity.
Mike that is an excellent explanation but I think to an average person that doesn’t understand the difference between troposphere and ionosphere would go, uh. But I see where your coming from, I’m just explaining that and not to be mean to you.
Thanks for using my full moon photo, Bill!