Happy Valentine’s Day
February 14th, 2009 at 4:15 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
<–found an appropriate sky for today! Happy Valentine’s Day! We’ve had a couple-three inches of snow overnight, so roads are slick this AM. I passed one car in the ditch on the way home from work at 3 AM. Things will improve as the snow moves east this AM and the temp. gets up to freezing. We’re still looking at a bigger storm for next late Tuesday Night into Wednesday. I’ve been saying 4-8″. The evening GFS Bufkit (which is usually overdone and too often WAY overdone) gives us 13.7″ from Tuesday evening through Friday evening. The GFS 16-Day plot gives us 0.80″ liquid in 9 hours – also probably overdone, but that would be a nice snowstorm. I think this one will be either all snow…or the vast majority snow. This will put us over 100″ for the winter. It also gives us a steady 20 mph wind on the back side of the storm. And, it’s cool…out to March 1st it doesn’t take us higher than the mid 30s. Have a lovely weekend!
I know I seen that I did that..my bad…
SlimJim
I would say the 18z GFS would still give us 4-6″
Hopefully its just an off run and the 00z will be back with 8-12″
It looks like the U.P. will escape this one. I hope anyway. Up near Lake Superior there is tons of snow yet but in my hometown of Escanaba which is 66 miles south of Marquette there is no more than 2 inches of snow on the ground. Amazing when your away from the Lake Superior snowbelt the difference in snowfall is. Yesterday my Grandma said there was 6 inches of snow that fell in Foster City Michigan which is 40 miles northwest of Escanaba but that missed us too. Man February has been such a beautiful month weather wise, no snow or cold weather! This month has been giving me spring fever and reminding me of recent mild winters we have had. It has still been a long winter with lots of snow and cold weather. Hopefully by the end of March we are talking about temps in the 50’s.
We are planning to drive to Kansas City on Wednesday. Should we bump that up to Tuesday?
Grand Rapids has a little over 99 inches of snow on the year now! My hometown of Escanaba has had 62 inches of snow but up in Marquette 180 inches of snow has fallen! I hope you guys shatter last year’s snowfall totals anyway. It looks like you have a shot at the all time record but the problem is time is running out for that. You only have little over a month to do it tell the snow stops for good.
Why does wzzm weather say RAIN for Wednesday? Who is correct?
Mo’ – at this point, there is low confidence in any of the predictions for the upcoming storm coming this way for Wed. Time will tell if ZZM is correct.
Yeah lets hope for a good ammount of snow and no ice….
So far, not liking the 00Z NAM.
I know what you are feeling Jim S. Trying to get any info we can glean to make a snowstorm come true. Let me remind you, as the NAM loads – the NAM has been less reliable than the GFS this winter. Hopefully it’s track record will continue!
Well, maybe Bastardi will be right on this. He mentioned the low would be weaker and further south. The 00Z NAM takes the low further south, and much weaker with the precip. In fact, it would give GR a couple inches, with perhaps a little more near the border. Hopefully, it is just wrong.
This map is the total liquid equivalent precip for the 48 hour period from Tues night through Thursday. Since the NAM is further south, if it is all snow, and assuming a 10:1 ratio…this would give I-96 south 3-5″ with a stripe of heavier snow in the blue. However, 3-5″ over two days isn’t even an advisory type snow. WEAK.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_p48_084l.gif
I am predicting significant warming north of the equator by mid April.
Al
its about 2-3 days before the storm, just remember the models are just doing there flip floping.. a lot could still change and probably will!
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_066l.gif
very interesting
00Z GFS showing the low going from Chicago to about Saginaw. Looks like more rain than snow for the southern counties. NAM and GFS way different.
This is the NAM model…gives GR about an inch of snow. I don’t think this will be right. Just a hunch.
Tyler, it would seem with a track like that, it would mean a mix south of 96. Still, this model at least shows a lot more precip. than the NAM. This puts out about an inch of precip…which would be a lot of snow if it were all snow. It also shows the low becoming very strong over Lake Huron…but I would like to see that low over Toledo like it was this morning.
would everyone quit being so hard on Jennifer K. so what if she complains..i complain all the time..so does my friend..so deal with it..if you dont like her posts…SKIP THEM!
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_324l.gif
i can only wish
ECMWF:
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0&ge=800×600&mo=ecmwf&le=sfc&va=slp&in=4&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=&le=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest
ECMWF:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/rtwx/ewall/ECMWF_0z/f72.gif
Did that cloud formation really happen like that? (heart shape). So awesome!!