UPDATED 2/22: In the end I got 14 of my 18 picks right, that’s 78%… not bad for my 1st officially published picks!!

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The 81st annual Academy Awards are just days away, and now I’m finally publishing my picks for who is most likely to win in each category.  Some of the picks were easy, others were gut wrenching to decide.

But in the end, here they are, my picks to win the Oscars:
( Follow along by printing out an Official Oscar Ballot )

(CORRECT) Performance by an actor in a leading role (CORRECT)
 Winner: Sean Penn in “Milk”

Critics rave about how great Penn’s acting was in “Milk”, but this is one of the closest categories of the night, with three strong performances by actors that immersed themselves in their work and became their character, that’s why I think its possible this award could also go to Rourke or Langella.

Possible Upset: Mickey Rourke in “The Wrestler” or Frank Langella in “Frost/Nixon”

(CORRECT) Performance by an actor in a supporting role (CORRECT)
 Winner: Heath Ledger in “The Dark Knight”

In 1989 we all thought that Jack Nicholson was the best Joker we ever saw, but that all changed the moment Heath Ledger appears in “The Dark Knight”… he not only took this role to a whole new, more terrorizing and maniacal level… he is the Joker, blurring the lines between actor and character and moving to the top of my list of best movie villians of all time.

Possible Upset: very small chance that Philip Seymour Hoffman in “Doubt” could win

(CORRECT) Performance by an actress in a leading role (CORRECT)
 Winner: Kate Winslet in “The Reader”

She won the Golden Globes for Best Actress for “Revolutionary Road” and Best Supporting Actress for “The Reader”… and this is the more critically acclaimed movie of the two… but Meryl Streep did win the Screen Actors Guild Award for Best Actress.

Possible Upset: Meryl Streep in “Doubt”

(CORRECT) Performance by an actress in a supporting role (CORRECT)
 Winner: Penélope Cruz in “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”

A relatively close category that all depends on how the academy voters are thinking… sometimes this category goes to a break-out big impact/small screentime role… so either Viola Davis and Taraji P. Henson could sneak an steal the award.

Possible Upset: Viola Davis in “Doubt” or Taraji P. Henson in “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

(CORRECT) Best animated feature film of the year (CORRECT)

Winner: “WALL-E”, Andrew Stanton

Early on, this great movie was even considered to be in contention for Best Picture, but when it was all said and done, it just took its place atop the animated feature category.  I think this is more than just one of the best animated movies of the year, its one of the best animated movies in years.

Possible Upset: the most unlikely upset of the night

(CORRECT) Achievement in art direction (CORRECT)
 Winner: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”, Art Direction: Donald Graham Burt, Set Decoration: Victor J. Zolfo

No other movie created such a real setting in a time and/or place that didn’t currently exist… except for “Changeling”, but “Benjamin Button” has a magical feel about it that resonates with audiences… and academy voters.

Possible Upset: “Changeling”, Art Direction: James J. Murakami, Set Decoration: Gary Fettis

(CORRECT) Achievement in cinematography (CORRECT)
 Winner: “Slumdog Millionaire”, Anthony Dod Mantle

While “Benjamin Button” made us feel like we were in another time and place, the cinematograpy in “Slumdog Millionaire” makes you feel like you are right in the slums of Mumbai and along for the adventure with the main characters.

Possible Upset: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”, Claudio Miranda

Achievement in costume design
 Winner: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”, Jacqueline West

Costumes also helped boost the settings and story for “Benjamin Button”, very natural, very real, and very believable.

Possible Upset: “The Duchess”, Michael O’Connor

(CORRECT) Achievement in directing (CORRECT)
 Winner: “Slumdog Millionaire”, Danny Boyle

In what was the toughest category to choose, my pick here was helped by Oscar Historian and TCM Host Robert Osborne and the thinking that “Slumdog” Director Danny Boyle wins this category, but not Best Picture, because it may not be the best movie of the year and 20 years from now.  With that theory, the Best Picture winner goes to “Benjamin Button”, but David Fincher could end up winning this category too.  Let me also go on the record by saying that Ron Howard (”Frost/Nixon”) could sneak in and grab the Oscar here too, he has a strong history of movies and is well liked… don’t overlook those factors.

Possible Upset: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”, David Fincher

(CORRECT) Best documentary feature (CORRECT)
 Winner: “Man on Wire”, A Wall to Wall Production, James Marsh and Simon Chinn

From the clips I’ve seen and what I’ve heard from the critics, I can’t bet against the movie that started its buzz after playing at West Michigan’s very own Waterfront Film Festival.

Possible Upset: I don’t know this category well enough to decide

Best documentary short subject
Winner: I don’t know this category well enough to decide

Possible Upset: I don’t know this category well enough to decide

(CORRECT) Achievement in film editing (CORRECT)
 Winner: “Slumdog Millionaire”, Chris Dickens

Great story moves along very well, with lots and lots of shots, angles, flashbacks, all with a pacing that also makes this one of the best movies of the year.

Possible Upset: “Frost/Nixon”, Mike Hill and Dan Hanley

Best foreign language film of the year
Winner: “Waltz with Bashir”, A Bridgit Folman Film Gang Production, Israel

Possible Upset: after “WALL-E” and Heath Ledger, this is the 3rd biggest lock of the year

(CORRECT) Achievement in makeup (CORRECT)
 Winner: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”, Greg Cannom

Brad Pitt as a old wrinkled man child?  Without the cheesy CGI that could have ruined the whole movie, no this was a revolution in effects, the aging processes in the movie – both forward and backward were amazing.   Enough said.

Possible Upset: “Hellboy II: The Golden Army”, Mike Elizalde and Thom Floutz

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)
 Winner: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”, Alexandre Desplat

This one could go either way, both movies had great scores, but “Slumdog” was more of a soundtrack movie that a classic score movie.. and that’s why I think “Benjamin Button” wins here.  Remember seeing the trailer for the first time… and the score during the trailer gave it a magical feel?  Yeah, this one was in the bag before the movie was even released.

Possible Upset: “Slumdog Millionaire”, A.R. Rahman

(CORRECT) Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song) (CORRECT)
 Winner: “Jai Ho” from “Slumdog Millionaire”, Music by A.R. Rahman, Lyric by Gulzar

The only guess here is which song from “Slumdog” wins the top award, because it is truly a soundtrack movie… other than the obvious, its the first thing I noticed pulling me into a movie that I wasn’t really sure I wanted to see in the first place.  Peter Gabriel is happy to be nominated and we assume, performing a song at this year’s Oscars.

Possible Upset: “O Saya” from “Slumdog Millionaire”, Music and Lyric by A.R. Rahman and Maya Arulpragasam

Best motion picture of the year
 Winner: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”, A Kennedy/Marshall Production, Kathleen Kennedy, Frank Marshall and Ceán Chaffin, Producers

I think this is where the academy shows is true colors, while the popuar choice here would be “Slumdog” (since “The Dark Knight”) is not in this category… the best made movie of the year and will be remembered that way for years to come is “Benjamin Button”.   But a win by “Slumdog” would not be a surprise… “Frost/Nixon” has a outside chance to win here, but its really a two movie competition.

Possible Upset: “Slumdog Millionaire”, A Celador Films Production, Christian Colson, Producer

Best animated short film
Winner: I don’t know this category well enough to decide

Possible Upset: I don’t know this category well enough to decide

Best live action short film
Winner: I don’t know this category well enough to decide

Possible Upset: I don’t know this category well enough to decide

Achievement in sound editing
 Winner: “WALL-E”, Ben Burtt and Matthew Wood

Almost every category I see “WALL-E” winning is a slam dunk… and this is another one, because the first 30 minutes or so of this movie has no dialogue… its all just sounds…and great sounds created by the master and “Star Wars” sound magician Ben Burtt… if you’ve seen “WALL-E”, you can appreciate how great the sound was for the title character and all the other robots.

Possible Upset: “Iron Man”, Frank Eulner and Christopher Boyes or “The Dark Knight”, Richard King

Achievement in sound mixing
 Winner: “The Dark Knight” (Warner Bros.), Lora Hirschberg, Gary Rizzo and Ed Novick

I’m going to go with recent history on this one, where the action movie wins this category… and since it didn’t get into as many other categories as one would hope (not Best Picture, Director, or Screenplay)… I think it gets some love here.

Possible Upset: “Slumdog Millionaire”, Ian Tapp, Richard Pryke and Resul Pookutty

(CORRECT) Achievement in visual effects (CORRECT)
 Winner: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”, Eric Barba, Steve Preeg, Burt Dalton and Craig Barron

Same argument as makeup… the aging process both backward for Brad Pitt and forward for the rest of the cast was so real that you really didn’t notice it… and that’s when visual effects are at their best.. it was not distracting or goofy and that’s why it should win here too.

Possible Upset: “Iron Man”, John Nelson, Ben Snow, Dan Sudick and Shane Mahan

(CORRECT) Adapted screenplay (CORRECT)
 Winner: “Slumdog Millionaire”, Screenplay by Simon Beaufoy

I’ve gone back and forth on this so many times, but when you think about when it comes down to the best story… the slight edge goes to “Slumdog”…. I think.

Possible Upset: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”, Screenplay by Eric Roth, Screen story by Eric Roth and Robin Swicord

Original screenplay
 Winner: “WALL-E”, Screenplay by Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon, Original story by Andrew Stanton, Pete Docter

Remember that this movie was being talked about for Best Picture before Oscar season and the heavyweights of “Benjamin Button”, “Doubt”, “The Reader”, “Frost/NIxon” and “Slumdog Millionaire” came to theaters… so it was a great story right?  With great writing?  And it was such an original story we really hadn’t seen before.   That’s my thinking here.

Possible Upset: “Frozen River” (Sony Pictures Classics), Written by Courtney Hunt

I know you can’t possibly agree with all my picks, so please post a comment or email me your picks before Sunday night, and I’ll post the winner next week !!! 
(email to: aaron.lafferty@woodtv.com )

For more: Click here to see the full list of nominees and related blogs