Slow Improvement
July 2nd, 2009 at 6:47 pm by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
<–cloudy and cold at Lake Michigan. Friday AM - Three days in a row with temperatures stuck only in the mid 60s! The high temp. of 67 in GRR Thursday tied the record lowest high temperature for July 2. At mid-afternoon, the air temperature at the lighthouse at Muskegon was 55 and the water temperature was 52. Hard to believe it’s July! GRR recorded a whopping 3% of possible sunshine on Thursday. We didn’t get any sunshine on Wednesday – Zero percent. That’s only the 6th time in 17 years in G.R. that we have had a day with 0% sunshine in July. Tuesday we had 10% sunshine. So, this is the cloudiest three day period in July that I can find…even beating 7%/7%/0% on July 12-14, 1992. That year we had cooler than average temperatures from April through November. Wednesday we had a high temp. of 64 in G.R. (beating the old record low maximum temperature of 66 from 1918) and 61 in Muskegon. We’ve only had six days since 1935 that have had cooler maximum temperatures in July than the 64 we had Wednesday (thanks to Andy for that tidbit). We’ve now had eight days since June 1 that have failed to reach 70. Grand Marais in the U.P. had a high of 50 on Thursday, following highs of 49 on Wednesday and a high of 47 on Tuesday! Not much rain. Only 0.06″ in Grand Rapids, 0.03 in Kalamazoo, 0.16″ at Greenville. Traverse City had 1/2″. Overall dry pattern for the next week to 10 days. See how cool it was in West Michigan, SE Michigan, Northern Michigan, and Upper Michigan. Here’s GRR NWS radar, Great Lakes radar, latest surface observations, GRR NWS discussion, Visible Satellite loop (daytime), Infrared Satellite Loop (night), Lake Michigan webcam at Holland, webcam from British Virgin Is. and Nettle Bay on St. Martin to cheer you up. I guarantee it’ll get warmer for the weekend, and it looks like another round of fairly warm weather by next Thursday (at least mid 80s). The lowest high temperature ever in July was 58° on 7/15/1987. Since 1966 in GRR, we have set only two record high temperatures in July and tied one. Since 1966 we have set 15 record low temperatures in July. The weather was OK for the BIG Maranda Park Party Thursday afternoon in Ionia at the Fairgrounds. Next week Park Party is at Garfield Park in Grand Rapids. Lots of fun and free stuff at Park Parties!
Last year the hottest part of the summer was the first two days of September. This year it happened in Late June. In 2007 we had a very mild winter and hot summer. I wish that cycle would come back rather than this harsh winter and cool summer pattern were in.
Actually that’s not what happened… Early June 2008 had a string of days with 10+ degrees above normal (even a +17 when GRR hit 90!) That was the hottest part of summer last year. September wasn’t as abnormal.
IM seeing the clouds parting, maybe a peak of the great glowing ball in the sky yet today! yeehaw!
oh bummer it’s gone
my garden said whats going on with the sun?
Bill…Looks like the 00z GFS brings in some light to moderate showers to the area on Sat. July 4th! We’ll have to keep a watchful eye on those new model runs!!!
Man it wont be long and winter will be here. Summer seems to be almost over.
winter isn’t almost here man, you have over 3 months yet! whats this crap about showers & 72 for a high tomorrow now? can you guys EVER stick to your forecasts? we might as well cancel our plans now. im really getting fed up with this crappy state. i bet $$ we don’t even hit near 80 next week either. i also just read the story about people & the beaches complaining about the weather and how it’s hurting business. i can only imagine this cold weather is really putting a BIG dent in the michigan economy right now. they need the $$ from the beaches and lakes and it’s been too cold to go there. tomorrow is the biggest beach day and it looks as another fail. maybe you guys should just stick to doing 3 day forecasts, seems you change things to frequently!
Relax fixxer… The threat of a shower has been there for a while now. I don’t expect it to be a “washout” of a day so nothing to worry about.
Next week will hit 80 and then some.
How about this.. If it hits 80, you stop whining for a week. If it doesn’t, you are free to brag for a week.
you got a deal my man!
It should hit 80 after all its July, any bets on it wont hit 90°? In fact good old Brett Anderson at accuweather in looking at the European long range weekly model now thinks that it will be cooler then average for maybe the whole month of July so may we dare say it may not hit 90 this month? Who knows its happened before. So lets say maybe 87, 88 the highest for the month?
SlimJim
slim i honestly think this is one of the crappiest summers ive seen in my lifetime. i don’t think we will see any real heat again. they change the forecasts too much, can’t their computers stick with a forecast for more than one day? im seeing low 70’s for highs tomorrow nope and showers. not beach or fireworks weather once again.
For all of you jumping all over the fixxxer, I have to with the fix on this one. It has been overall extraordinarily cool this summer (I know the stats may say different).
Also, their forecasts have been abysmal, to say the least. Usually they are better at summer forecasting, due the supposed slowdown of changes that happens in the summer, versus say spring…
Yes, the fourth of July forecast has again changed for the worse. If you look at satellite/radar pictures from the plains and the direction of that the weather is heading, it looks like some rain and for sure clouds, could be in the offing for the fourth. There was no mention of this yesterday.
One more thing, in defense of fixxxer..When they forecast out a few days, the forecasters always seem like they try to warm us up, and then they backpedal on the highs, sometimes even the next day, when cooler temps always seem to win out. Nobody said meteorology was an exact science, but geesh!!
Up north this summer, they are definitely taking a beating with the pathetically much cooler weather they are experiencing. This is a bittet pill to swallow, since the summer season is short enough as it is. Last one to leave Michigan turn out the lights!!!
the forecasting has been utterly pathetic this summer. i hope we don’t have a rain out tomorrow!
All in all I agree with you on how cool its been this spring and summer and I think the rest of this summer will also be on the cool side. And as always the long range guess is just that a guess. Unless you are forecasting for places that have a much smaller day to day variance then we do in the mid latitudes.
SlimJim
I get worried whenever someone starts off with “It doesn’t matter what actually happened and what was actually measured – the numbers are all wrong. This is what really took place.” This summer has not been extraordinarily cool for the GRR area. It hasn’t been cool at all. There have been about as many above normal days as below normal days.
Regarding the summer forecasting – some clouds and a chance of a shower has been in the 4th forecast for a while (I replied when someone posted with “no chance of rain on the 4th” in this very blog a few days ago.
You also noted that it’s usually easier to forecast long range in the summer because there aren’t many changes in the pattern. You haven’t been watching if you think this summer hasn’t had dramatic pattern changes.
Last but not least – don’t lump all forecasters in one broad stroke. I’ve _always_ been conservative on warmups, even one day out. I’d MUCH rather risk being 5 degrees cool on my outlook, than suffer from being 5 degrees too warm. Are there those who go the other way? Certainly. If you don’t like that forecast philosophy, then stop watching them and switch…
So far the summer has been “near normal” with a lot of cold day and a few hot days. With several “near normal” days tossed in. Sorry but there is no getting around that. And not too far to our north it has been nothing but a cold spring, summer with a few hot days tossed in. I guess the real issue is not how cool or warm its been but on how cool and short our summers really are!
SlimJim
I know I posted this two times before but why waste a good post?
BTW good old Brett Anderson at accuweather in looking at the European long range weekly model now thinks that it will be cooler then average for maybe the whole month of July so may we dare say it may not hit 90 this month? Who knows its happened before. So lets say maybe 87, 88 the highest for the month?
SlimJim
*waits for bill to come in and say….”COOL RULES”!
slim, no way this summer has been near normal, i think our normal temps in july are 80+ and the last week we barley hit 65 degrees. i think they should only do 2-3 day outlooks!
I agree fix, I believe they should only do 2-3 outlooks as well. They can barely handle 3!! As I said in the earlier post, if you go by the books, the temperatures overall this summer may not seem cool, but it has been cool. There have been many days where the temps have been way below average (10-20 degrees), and not many above average days.
Also, in the earlier post, I stated that up north, even though they are known for cooler weather in the summer, it has been downright cold, even for their standards!!
There are no two ways about it, other than saving on your electric bill from using less air conditioning, this summer has been downright pathetic.
Everyone have a splendid fourth of july!!
“There have been many days where the temps have been way below average (10-20 degrees), and not many above average days.”
You kids crack me up…
In Grand Rapids, June 2009 had 0 (zero, none, nil, nada) days of 10 degrees below average or colder. Never happened. June 2009 had three days of double-digit ABOVE normal temperatures though. We’ve had as many normal and above normals days all summer long, as we have below normal days.
Rob,
I can see where you are coming from, however, my perspective is from daytime highs, not the daytime average between highs and lows..The main reason some of the nighttime lows have not been that low is due to the incessant cloud cover we have had much of the summer. The nighttime lows do not concern me. I could care less if it is 80 during the day and 45 at night. I do most of my outdoor activities during the day. To each his own.
Below is the NWS Grand Rapids official daily recorded temps for June of 2009. If you look at many of the daily HIGH temps in the second column, there are quite a few days where the highs are well below average, including the 2nd (63 degrees) the 3rd (69 degrees), the 9th (65 degrees), the 17th (69 degrees), the 30th (66 degrees), not mention this mid 60 degree stretch we have had in early July. Today at 1pm on the fourth of July, it is only 69 degrees here in Grand Rapids. Don’t tell me this hasn’t been a cool summer, the high temps tell me it has been, even including the warmer stretch of weather we had in mid-late June.
1 76 50 63 -1 2 0 0.08 0.0 0 10.3 21 250 409 45 6 1 25 280
2 63 51 57 -7 8 0 0.00 0.0 0 5.0 14 80 253 28 9 16 80
3 69 49 59 -5 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 6.2 17 50 854 93 5 22 50
4 71 43 57 -7 8 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.0 13 50 859 94 2 20 80
5 75 42 59 -6 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 7.2 17 260 773 85 1 22 280
6 72 54 63 -2 2 0 T 0.0 0 8.3 20 80 552 60 7 22 80
7 75 54 65 0 0 0 T 0.0 0 8.2 15 80 411 45 9 20 100
8 80 52 66 1 0 1 0.60 0.0 0 12.5 24 230 220 24 7 138 31 230
9 65 54 60 -6 5 0 0.00 0.0 0 10.8 18 300 537 59 9 24 290
10 76 52 64 -2 1 0 0.00 0.0 0 3.8 10 80 840 97 5 M M
11 65 56 61 -5 4 0 0.20 0.0 0 6.9 13 30 0 0 9 18 18 30
12 75 52 64 -2 1 0 0.00 0.0 0 2.7 10 330 608 66 6 21 220
13 73 58 66 -1 0 1 0.10 0.0 0 3.2 10 180 412 45 7 1 14 190
14 79 54 67 0 0 2 0.00 0.0 0 4.1 14 280 828 90 5 18 28 330
15 82 54 68 1 0 3 0.00 0.0 0 2.3 9 50 772 84 4 13 40
16 80 56 68 1 0 3 T 0.0 0 8.7 21 100 579 63 8 24 100
17 69 59 64 -4 1 0 0.86 0.0 0 6.8 14 60 47 5 9 18 18 70
18 79 61 70 2 0 5 0.00 0.0 0 4.9 13 100 588 66 8 1 21 100
19 80 66 73 5 0 8 3.15 0.0 0 9.5 33 170 353 38 8 13 44 170
20 82 66 74 6 0 9 0.01 0.0 0 11.2 22 280 696 76 5 1 29 270
21 86 64 75 7 0 10 0.00 0.0 0 2.7 13 40 552 60 7 12 16 190
22 86 64 75 6 0 10 0.00 0.0 0 4.0 12 70 881 96 3 1 15 110
23 89 70 80 11 0 15 0.00 0.0 0 3.1 12 270 820 89 5 15 270
24 96 70 83 14 0 18 0.00 0.0 0 5.2 17 270 814 88 4 18 21 270
25 91 71 81 12 0 16 0.00 0.0 0 5.0 17 300 863 94 4 18 23 300
26 86 67 77 8 0 12 0.00 0.0 0 5.2 15 10 718 78 3 18 10
27 84 62 73 3 0 8 T 0.0 0 5.9 12 160 789 86 6 3 17 150
28 78 63 71 1 0 6 1.08 0.0 0 13.8 30 300 866 94 3 1 39 300
29 73 61 67 -3 0 2 0.07 0.0 0 13.3 24 320 566 62 6 1 35 260
30 66 58 62
The link below shows the highs and low temps for Grand Rapids
PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6)
STATION: GRAND RAPIDS MI
MONTH: JUNE
YEAR: 2009
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/grr/climate/f6/data/?site=grr&year=2009&month=6
PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6)
STATION: GRAND RAPIDS MI
MONTH: JULY
YEAR: 2009
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/grr/climate/f6/data/?site=grr&year=2009&month=7
THE GRAND RAPIDS MI CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE 2009.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=CLMGRR&max=61
1971-2000 Daily/Monthly Station Normals for Grand Rapids
http://cdo.ncdc.noaa.gov/climatenormals/clim84/MI/MI203333.txt
For More West Michigan Weather Information
Click on my name for my web site
Mike
Luckily, we are doing the family barbeque on Sunday this year, looks like it will be the better of the 2 days. I don’t know how Kyle Underwood is saying there will be a ’small’ chance of rain here. I just looked on the National Radar and there’s nothing but rain west of us. Is it just going to jump over us on it’s way East?
That rain is heading to the SE and at best will just clip Michigan.
SlimJim
It’s not going east, it’s going southeast.
All in all its been a very cold start to July. Its a cool 61° here now. This is from the Detroit NWS office:
A Cool Start To July
…RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT FLINT THURSDAY…
YESTERDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURE AT FLINT WAS 65 DEGREES. THIS IS THE
LOWEST HIGH TEMPERATURE ON RECORD FOR JULY 2ND…WITH THE PREVIOUS
RECORD BEING 67 DEGREES SET IN 1978.
TO PUT THINGS IN PERSPECTIVE…
WHEN FACTORING IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS MAXES OF 67 (JULY 1ST) AND 65
(JUNE 30)…ONE NEEDS TO GO BACK TO 1967 TO SEE SUCH A COOL (3 DAY
CONSECUTIVE) STRETCH OF WEATHER THIS LATE IN THE SUMMER.
FOR DETROIT, THE HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 69, 72, 67 (JUNE 30-JULY 2ND)
MARK THE COOLEST START TO JULY SINCE 1978.
SlimJim