More Hurricanes?
August 13th, 2009 at 4:34 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
A certain politician said this week: “Global warming creates volatility. I feel it when I’m flying. The storms are more volatile. We are paying the price in more hurricanes and tornadoes.” I’d like to point out that Accumulated Tropical Cyclone Energy is at an all-time low (note the steady drop since 2005 – the Katrina year). Here’s a related article from Florida State University. The World Meteorological Organization has released this statement: “Though there is evidence both for and against the existence of a detectable anthropogenic (human-induced) signal in the tropical cyclone climate record to date, no firm conclusion can be made at this point. The recent increase in the impact from tropical cyclones has largely been caused by rising concentrations of population and infrastructure – not because of stronger storms. Recent climate model simulations project a decrease or no change in global tropical cyclone numbers in a warmer climate, there is low confidence in this projection.” This is also the latest the hurricane season has started in the Atlantic since 1992 (another overall chilly summer in the Great Lakes and Northeast). The graph above shows the number of tornadoes increasing. However note the number of significant tornadoes F2-F5 has actually DECREASED since the 1960s and 1970s. These stronger tornadoes would have been observed and reported in the early years of the graph. An analysis: TORNADO TRENDS OVER THE PAST THIRTY YEARS has been completed by Daniel McCarthy and Joseph Schaefer NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, Oklahoma. They say: “The increase in reported tornado frequency
during the early 1990s corresponds to the operational
implementation of Doppler weather radars. Other nonmeteorological
factors that must be considered when
looking at the increase in reported tornado frequency
over the past 33 years are the advent of cellular
telephones; the development of spotter networks by
NWS offices, local emergency management officials,
and local media; and population shifts. Changnon
(1982) and Schaefer and Brooks (2000) both discuss
these influences on tornado reporting.
The growing “hobby” of tornado chasing has also
contributed to the increasing number of reported
tornadoes. The capability to easily photograph
tornadoes with digital photography, camcorders, and
even cell phone cameras not only provides
documentation of many weak tornadoes, but also, on
occasion, shows the presence of multiple tornadoes
immediately adjacent to each other. (Are these
individual tornadoes or manifestations of one tornado
undergoing vortex breakdown?)
Dr. Changnon has long advocated the use of “event
days” because of its mitigation of the impact of reporting
biases (Changnon and Schnickedanz, 1969). When
tornado days are plotted against year (Fig. 2), the rapid
inflation that is apparent in the numbers of reported
tornadoes is no longer present.”
Bill, that certain politicial has alot of people who believes in him…how sad.
Her…I think that it is a her….
I was thought it was Al Gore who made that statement.
Nope, was out wonderfully useless State Senator Debbie Stabenow. Just that statement alone from her shows how clueless she truly is.
Maybe it’s the Crown Royal that she feels when she’s flying. I have no evidence, I just wonder.
Oh please…don’t let the facts get in the way of a perfectly good crisis!!
I would certainly not want to trade our tornadoes for the tornadoes from the ’70’s.
Well, time for breakfast. There’s volatility in my stomach. I can feel it when I’m hungry.
HAHA!
Off topic a bit Bill but we are doing a sailing race across Lake Michigan from Muskegon to Port Washington Friday starting at 8am. Could you give us a wind forecast? If you don’t have time no problem! Thanks!
I use these two websites to check out wind forecasts in case anyone is interested, I know there are other sailors out there! Checking out the wind is good for racing and just cruising.
http://www.sailflow.com
Thanks for those sites, direfloyd! I’m writing some novels, and I want to make the sailing elements as believable as I can.
No problem! Let me know if you have any questions. I’ve been sailing all 27 years of my life… I only can remember 22 years or so though =)
… and this site for wind forecasts
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/greatlakes/?c=map&l=lm&p=a&m=ws
Now come on Bill, you know that that certain politician doesn’t like to be bothered with facts, especially if they have science to back them up, it just creats an ” inconvient truth” to deal with. Besides calling it “climate change” makes more sense since the climate changes from day to day, lol, I always enjoy these little factoid updates Keep em rolling Sir.
the earth isnt warming, its going through a cooling stage.
I’m glad he can feel the volatility while he’s flying around adding to the cause (oh wait he thinks flying & speaking is helping to “spread” the word)…LOL!!! He really should think about what he is saying…
Debbie do you realize we have had one of the coldest July’s on record…??
After following this subject for so long I think I can provide a stock Alarmist answer and save you little tree huggers some time. This is weather, not climate! The models show extremes of weather change, so cool weather is expected! The WMO is made up of meteorologists! Your local weatherman doesn’t know anything about climatology! It’s all BigEvilOil disinformation!
The propaganda about meteorologists has always amazed me. Bill, Algore’s vapid little followers think TV weathermen are morons. I for one would like to see you post about just how much education a “climatologist” and a meteorologist actually share. Not to mention how vague the definition of a climatologist actually is, how many different disciplines it encompasses, and how young the actual field of study is.
Matt Kirkwood says that he just checked the climatology for Grand Rapids. It seemed correct what he said to me.
Who is Matt Kirkwood? Wasn’t he “Al Sleet” in the last market he worked in?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1uaw3WIOlc
I’m quite sure the correct terminology is not “global warming” but “climate change.” Little doubt there’s been a lot of that going on.
Yeah, they had to drop the “global warming” moniker when it became obvious that the real world wasn’t going to cooperate. “Climate change” is much more effective because it covers ANY observed conditions. Kind of like the IPCC’s use of 20+ climate models: no matter what happens, at least one of the models came close to predicting it.
‘Course, you’d have to be real stoopid to think that little change wouldn’t set off the BS detector of about 200 million Americans.
My apologies if I have misread you but surely you understand that the climate is always changing. Use of the phrase is pointless. You’re certainly not going to pass legislation that will suck $9 trillion out of our national economy on such a thin reed…are you?
It is obvious that there is a battle in the science world over Global Warming. Some believe it’s real some like Bill do not believe it is real. I think it is time to pull the plug on any grant money or federal money away from anything dealing with Global Warming especially in the field of meteorology. There is no point in throwing money away to the science world that cannot come up with a consensus. Heck most meteorologists cannot get tomorrow’s forecast right let alone something like the global warming. No point in studying this science, in fact maybe it’s time to do away with weather forecasting in general. Just think of the other things we could spend this money on. Energy independence, road building, something constructive other than a guess of the weather.
In fact since there is such doubt about Global warming, how can you trust any of the instruments measuring the weather? They are as worthless as these predictions of Global Warming. Lets stop wasting money on meteorologic studies.
A lot of climatologists have advanced degrees usually Ph.D’s
Many climatologists work for the government, some in the
private sector, NCAR. colleges/universities.
Most courses in climatology are offered in either a Geography
and/or a Meteorology program at a college/university.
Some colleges/universities offer a specialization in Climatology.
I notice quite a few new faculty in meteorology programs,
where their specialty is in climate modeling, climate change,
global warming, air-sea interactions, etc.
American Meteorological Society has 4 Journals now, that
deals with very aspects of climate:
Earth Interactions
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
Journal of Climate
Weather, Climate, and Society
Many books are being published these days dealing with climate
and many journal articles are also being written also.
Mike
[...] Regarding her comment about tornadoes and hurricanes increasing in number and volatility, not true. Actually, there is a decline in both. For the expert view on the weather and climate change, drop in on my favorite meteorologist (since I was in high school), and the man we fondly refer to as the “Weather-Guy”, Mr. Bill Steffen. [...]
Just remember no matter how you feel about Global warming
one thing is for sure if Cap and Tax passes we will ALL feel the
same way, MAD.
Cap and Tax isn’t about climate change, it never has been its about more
goverment control of all of our lives.
Be ready to pay more for EVERYTHING for a law that will do nothing but
take away more of our freedom and give more control to the governemt.
Email your Senators now and tell them to vote NO on cap and TAX!
Keep up the good work Bill!
I remember learning in school that the polar ice caps were melting due to depletion of the O-Zone layer. What ever happened to that theory? Now they (Who ever that is) has dreamed up an even better alibi (Global Warming) to yet again blame man kind for destroying the planet.