Declining number of sunspots
August 22nd, 2009 at 12:04 pm by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
<–This graph is off www.spaceweather.com. Update: Here’s an interesting article about the connection between climate and sunspot activity and why some scientists are getting concerned about global cooling, not warming. Scientists are very interested (and some very concerned) about recent happenings on the sun. Take a moment to read the article at the link above. Also, sunspots are now becoming “different”. Today is the 45th day in a row with no sunspots. About 80% of this year, the sun has been sunspot-free. Two astronomers at the Solar Observatory in Tucson AZ have documented the loss of magnetism on the sun in recent years. This article from NASA back in April talks about the 50-year (that’s as long as we have records) decline in the solar wind, the fact that the sun’s brightness has dropped by 0.02% at visible wavelengths and 6% at extreme UV wavelengths since the solar minimum of 1996 and a 55-year (as long as we have records) low in solar radio emissions. In the past long periods of low sunspot activity (like the Maunder Minimum, which coincided with the middle — and coldest part — of the Little Ice Age and the Sporer Minimum, which was also coincident with a cooler Earth) have been associated with a cooling of global temperatures on earth. Speaking of cold, there is STILL a little bit of ice floating in Hudson Bay (at the link click on “latest” under “United States). We’re two months after the Solstice. With ice floating around, the water temperature of Hudson Bay will be close to 32F degrees. Like I have said before…the bay will be a source region for early cold air that will descend down into the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast during early autumn.
The articles reference the minimums in the year 1901 and again in the year 1913. 1913 had only 67 sunspots but it was bookened by 155 in 1912 and 289 in 1914. (Reference this old article http://adsabs.harvard.edu/full/1918MNRAS..79…54P) Your articles also suggest that we would need to continue into another year of minimum to beat the 1913 record… how are we doing? Are we almost two years in a row now for minimum activity?
I’m also curious about the Maunder Minimum. I know that the weather began changing in fits and starts before settling into continuously cold temperatures. Is there any consistent data regarding correlating sunspot activity?
Very interesting!!! I tend to belong to the “overdue market correction” way of thought. Periods of cooling and heating have happened for a very long time. It is weird, but I don’t think it is something to have a long term concern over. But, I am an optimist by nature.
I think that withing the next couple of summers, we will be making up for lost time as far as storms go. Just a gut feeling, not based on any sort of science.
bill how long will this el nino pattern last?
fixxxer did it make it to 90 today??????
it barley hit 65 today, it was darn cold. bill stop saying winter will arrive early as you have no clue this far out.
Bill couldn’t tell you today what the exact temperature will be on, say, December 4th, but he can predict an early winter with the information he has now. Isn’t that something the Farmer’s Almanac has been doing accurately for decades?
Way back this spring, Bill said it would be a cooler than average summer and it has been. I believe his early winter forcast.
Gwen,
Just curious what information, other than historical patterns, would tell us that we will have an early winter. I only ask you because you have answered Fixxxer in a way that demonstrates that you should know something about it! I have heard the early winter many times and I am very curious to what is telling everyone that. Remember last winter. Bill told everyone that we were going to have a warm up in January which never happened until late February if I recall correctly, and that was in December. Now calling for an early winter in August seems a bit far fetched. The January warm up was based on historical patterns. If anything is true lately with our weather, we can demonstrate that historical patterns are not accurate in predicting the weather. I’m not saying that we won’t have a front loaded winter, but I would like to know why it has been predicted to be so. By the way, are you serious about the Farmers Almanac?
Peace Out
Hey Kevin, I’m completely serious about the Farmers Almanac. Weird, huh? When you were talking about the event last winter, you said Bill predicted something for January but it didn’t happen until February – that’s just a few weeks off on a predictable trend.
I don’t understand it, myself, but when talking about this summer, he had said something like “a weak El Nino followed by a weak La Nina” or something like that. Essentially, he’s saying that the currents in the Pacific Ocean affect our weather in Michigan. So, it’s not 100%, other things can happen that would influence with our weather, but if everything goes as it has in the past, we’re going to have a cool summer followed by an early winter.
fixxxer quit being a hatter on bill just because you like warmer weather hes just doing a prediction plus fixxer did you go to college to become a weather man im sure not so you really dont have room to talk. Bill is a great guy~!
It’s really strange that we are waiting for Solar Cycle 24 to really get going and it might have already been skipped!
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/08/01/some-speculation-that-solar-cycle-25-has-already-begun/
It apparently happened to Solar Cycle 5 during the Dalton Minimum…
http://spaceweb.oulu.fi/~kalevi/publications/non-refereed2/ESA_SP477_lostcycle.pdf
Too bad we don’t know exactly why temps go down when sunspots go down although the results of this project next year will be a big help…
http://public.web.cern.ch/public/en/Research/CLOUD-en.html
Ironic that Mother Nature would provide a grand solar minimum right at the height of global warming hysteria.
does this mean no aurora borealis or do i have my science mixed up?
There will still be polar auroras but you’ll have to be closer to the poles to see them. When there are sunspots, the aurora borealis grows in size, making it visible from places like Michigan. I’ve read that when there are few sunspots, the sunspots we do have _can_ be more intense. Kind of like letting the heat build up on a muggy summer day and then having a spectacular storm as opposed to the cool drizzle we’ve had all day today. That would mean some specactular auroras… and possibly some fizzled satelites.
Bill…Are we talking snow in late September to early October? I would estimate a lot of snow days for the kids who do have school!
Bill…What was the Lake Michigan water level rise after the recent big rains that we have had? How far below the 110+year average is the water level?
Our weather might be interesting for a few years. I wonder what a little ice age would be like? I am a big fan of the Farmers Almanac book.
a few years? i really hope next spring and summer are average to above average. yesterday was ridiculously cold out for late august. if we do get an early shot of winter i hope that spells an early start to spring and warmer temps. im still pushing for a warmer winter with less snowfall.
Food for thought also is that Bill was only local meteorologist that had predicted the sub zero readings we had in January! Do you remember the debate that, that prediction sparked between Accuweather and the others?
I’m just saying it lends credence to what makes Bill one of the best. No, I’m stroking his ego. Listen carefully to what Bill says in his forecasts and on his blog entries. I’m not trying to start an “us /verse them debate” but rather only pointing out a fact! I’m also sometimes amazed at how the farmer’s almanac can be so accurate. I do take their long range forecasts with a “grain of salt”
I remember the sub-zero prediction. And the astronomical heating bills that followed. Ugh.
All this talk of weather……WHEN THE SUN IS FAILING!
AAHHHHHHH!
I’m off to get a life’s supply of Dura Flames.
Came through the rockies last sunday in a snow storm [Rocky Mountain Nat park] Frost and snow in the pass just N of us here in Wy
If the theory of correlation between global temps and sunspot activity were true, shouldn’t we be seeing a drop in global temps? July was the 2nd warmest on record (NASA and UAH agree). Also, water temps just hit an all time high in July: http://www.physorg.com/news169993833.html
I am glad to see a sun spot minimum now — this will be a useful way to prove or disprove the skeptics. By the way, it sure was telling to see them castigate James Hansen for “fudging the numbers” in July, and then see UAH come out with data to support NASA/Hansen. Pretty sad…
I believe the sun spot minimum would have to last longer for it to have an affect. The articles Bill referenced were showing numbers from 1901 and 1913 – those two minimums were short-lived. The article specifically stated we’d have to have another year of minimum to beat the 1913 low. We’re still waiting to see how long this one will last.
I hope this winter is extremely cold, maybe 40 or 50 below for all you fools that love it, when 90% of your paycheck goes to your heat bill maybe you’ll then stop and wonder what is so great about winter? When your pipes freeze and your car rusts because of all the salt, and the roads crumble because of freeze/thaw action maybe then you’ll wonder why is winter so great. Go ahead blow your paycheck on propane and natural gas and watch it burn into the atmosphere, meanwhile I’ll be in Florida sipping on my ice tea while the refreshing ocean breeze blows thinking of all the short, cold, dark depressing days that MI has to offer for you.
Hi Bill,
I have a question that may or may not be related to the cycles of the sun. For the past couple of days, there has been a comercial on tv for, I think the IHS.com. For a lottery to live after December 21, 2012 and that modern science has confirmed that this date may be catastrofic to human kind. Is there any truth to their claims?