Cold start to October
October 2nd, 2009 at 11:28 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
Click here to see the map at left full screen. Check out the long term forecast from GRR. This is the European model 500 mb heights for early next week. Note the deep trough over the central U.S. (540 height down into Minnesota!) and troughs over NW Europe and the central Pacific. This pattern would likely bring some snow to perhaps NE Minnesota and northern Michigan…with flurries perhaps down into our area. The 12Z GFS takes us to -8 at 850 mb on Sunday the 11th – that would be cold enough for a little wet snow or sleet. It gives us temps. in the low 40’s – pretty warm for snow at the surface and the GFS often overdoes cold outbreaks in the fall. There has been some chatter on weather forums and blogs (here’s an example) comparing this situation to previous cold winters in the eastern U.S. (1903-04, 1976-78, 1977-78).
Better get my skis shined up for a cold and snowy winter! I can’t wait!
Just got back from a 8 day bear hunting trip to the Munising area of the UP.Our camp got one 220 lbs,filmed 1,(camera still worked after droping it 18FT out of a tree)and seen 2 other bears.The weather was great the 1st 4 days.Thunderstorms came thru Sunday evening,then the rain and high winds hit on Monday.One of our guys was a nervous wreck when he got back to the cabin after hunting. He said trees were falling around him. We drove to AU Train,MI to film and take pics of the huge waves on Lake Superior. Awsome they were!! Steady 40mph winds at 6:30pm on the 28th. Woke up to clear skies Thurs morn and 26° with heavy frost. The fall colors are about 40% and coming on strong.
I’m not seeing very cold temperatures in the forecast for next week. Are you anticipating some big changes to what is currently predicted on sites like Wunderground for the Grand Rapids area?
Predicted time of colder weather to arrive is after Sat Oct 10…
WLUC TV6,Marquette were saying maybe next week for their 1st snow of the season.
cool, Im planning on it, cause Im going to be up there north of houghton after tuesday!
this is the kind of day when the sun will suddenly burst out from behind the clouds seemingly with enough kinetic force to knock leaves right off the trees! (yes i know it is unlikely i’m just saying it seem like)
I found this link for a 2009-2010 winter forecast:
http://www.weatheradvance.com/winter-2009-2010-forecast
It gives west Michigan a good shot of a great winter!
Ugh… This is when you do a little research when reading someone’s outlook.
He says “Cooler than normal and drier than normal winter” for the Great Lakes.
Yet he’s forecasting record-SHATTERING snows for Detroit (normal 27″, record 56″, he predicts 100″) and Chicago (normal 28″, record 63″, he predicts 95″.)
Hmmm… Something just doesn’t belong.
Rob Dale, meet wet blanket. Wet blanket, Rob Dale.
Most of the snow fall totals are way out of line and would be a record snowfall amount.
SlimJim
I’m new to Michigan… due for my first winter… can anyone tell me how much snow usually falls? Very excited!
Hi, I know that at times the forecast seemed pretty high but I am also taking into consideration the lake effect snows for the great lakes. I also do not have the technology to make everything exactly right & I am still working on it. It is not a final copy. The final copy will be in November. But I know that some totals appear high.
average high temperatures are mid 60s for the first week of October – so daytime temps. staying in the 50s is cold relative to this time of year. Snow doesn’t last long in October. In fact snow is apt to melt pretty quickly all the way to Thanksgiving.
http://www.wcpo.com/…2010-Winter-Forecast/lf6Ph9m1XUqrZ7Xa55sYUg.cspx -
Here is another winter forecast link-It supports Bill’s idea of expanding ice coverege in the arctic. It’s intersting-check it out.
The link doesn’t work…
Oops, this is what it said:
A big factor in this year’s winter forecast will be sunspots or in this case, the lack of them. Sunspots have been negating the effects of global warming over the past several years according to Judith Lean (NRL) and David Lund (NASA/GISS).
Judith Lean says, “A 0.1% decrease in the sun’s irradiance has counteracted some of the warming action of greenhouse gases from 2002 – 2008.” She states, “this is the reason for the well-known ‘flat’ temperature trend of recent years.”
The updated forecast for the sun’s next solar cycle, Solar Cycle 24, has its peak delayed until May 2013 with a below normal number of sunspots expected. We are currently in “the deepest solar minimum in nearly a century.” Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center says, “Solar minimum has lasted far beyond the date we predicted in 2007.”
The sun is expected to remain calm for nearly a year. This reduction of solar activity is expected to have a cooling effect on the earth. Another indication that the earth may be cooling is the increase in ice across the Antarctic. Over the past few decades, there has been substantial cooling across the South Pole. Satellite measurements over the last 30 years, show that the sea ice around the continent is expanding. The decrease in ice across west Antarctica has been offset by an increase in ice across east Antarctica which is 4 times larger. Antarctica holds 90% of the earth’s ice and 80% of its fresh water.At Australia’s Davis Station in east Antarctica, ice core drillings reveal that the ice is the densest it has been in 10 years at 1.89 m. Measurements from Davis station in the 1950s showed it less at 1.67 m thick. This summer, the ice loss across the Arctic Ice Cap was less than 2007. A cooler summer across the northern hemisphere is contributed to the slow down in melting at the North Pole.
try the following link
http://www.wcpo.com/content/weather/story/Will-It-Be-A-Bad-One-2009-2010-Winter-Forecast/lf6Ph9m1XUqrZ7Xa55sYUg.cspx
Just keep the rain away on Saturday, Oct. 10th for my Colorburst Bicycle Tour at Fallasburg Park. Cool is okay, that’s why we have hot pancakes, coffee, hot cocoa, hot soup, and a large fire in the fireplace.
A nice sunny day to enjoy the fall leaf show would be great!
Detroit and Chicago only get 27 and 28 inches of snow per year respectively? I don’t doubt it, but I thought I remember reading that Detroit was closer to around 35-40 inches a year. Also, I have seen conflicting reports of how much snow Lansing gets per year. When I lived in the area, the local stations would usually say that Lansing gets around 55 inches a year, but other data I have found shows amounts closer to 40-45 inches. Does anybody have some bonafide numbers for these cities? What about Mt. Pleasant, where I’ve seen conflicting reports? Thanks in advance!
No, that post above is a Winter forecast. Winter = Dec/Jan/Feb. Annual amounts are closer to 40″ for those cities.
Official summaries are at http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/climate_midwest/mwclimate_data_summaries.htm
Rob, that site has a lot of good record information I have used that site now for several years!
SlimJim
Thanks, appreciate the input!
Based on what I have been reading, and along with the government heating/cooling discount, I just pulled the trigger on a new woodstove…..we’ll see if it pays for itself this winter…………
Good Move, key question now is, do you have a wood supply?
Im was planning on splitting my last few pieces today(dodging rain drops)..95% cut split stacked, ready to go!
I have 4 1/2 cords that were cut/split/stacked last March……even with the cool summer it should be dry….Wood burning buddy and I spend a week every March scrounging/cutting/splitting for our stoves….usually plenty of wood to go around down here in the state game area
Im just about finished, 30 mins of splitting left, had to watch state win today! Now it’s raining
I heard a storm for Marquette next week! We got 0.39 inch of rain in Escanaba yesterday and a little bit more this morning. Only 50 degrees right now with temps staying in the 50’s and possibly not getting out of the 40’s somedays this week.
Tyler, it’s looking good man! Im excited!
im not liking the weather at all, this weekend was nothing but cold and rainy.
I own a drive in theatre in coldwater.Let,s keep it dry till the 17th
I havent been to a drive in since 1985!
Is thia colder air that is to arrive on the 11th going to stay the week??? Wife and I are going to Vanderbilt and want to take our bicycles with to ride the trails. Will leave the bikes home if this cold air will be with us there all week. Thanks.
Im just about finished, 30 mins of splitting left, had to watch state win today! Now it’s raining