Wet October means snow?!
October 27th, 2009 at 1:54 pm by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
<–wet spider web (picture from Dora on POSTED). Since we’re up near 5″ of rain for October, and another good soaking coming on Friday, I looked back at wet Octobers to see what the weather was like during the winters that followed. During the last 50 years, the wettest Octobers have been 1959, 1969, 1981, 1988, and 1991. Four of those five years were followed by winters with above average snowfall. I then looked back to the previous 50 years. and found three more wet Octobers. They were followed by winters with snowfall near the century average. However, since snowfall was not measured as accurately back in those years (see 1911 for instance, a very wet October, then a very cold winter), we see that in those years snowfall was greater than in most years at that time. There are winter storm warnings up for six states now, with over a foot of snow expected in the mountains of Colorado and perhaps half a foot in parts of Denver. See Loveland Webcam and Breckenridge Webcam (daytime). We’ll be on the warm side of this system until Friday evening. The current models aren’t quite as intense on the Friday/Saturday system, but it’s still going to be cold and windy on the 31st. We’re cooling in the Arctic, especially in northeast Canada. The town of Alert hasn’t been warmer than -4°F in the last week. Resolute has seen highs near 0°F over the past several days. Winter’s coming and I’m still looking for a winter a little colder and perhaps snowier than average (I’m colder for Michigan than pretty much all the winter forecasts I’ve seen so far), though not quite as snowy as the past two winters. Enjoy Thursday…it’ll be dry with temperatures 10 degrees warmer than average.
FYI, AccuWeather’s Chief Meteorologist and Expert Long Range Forecaster Joe Bastardi recently released his ‘09/’10 winter predictions.
He’s forecasting a mild and less snowy winter than average for Michigan and most of the midwest.
http://gsimmonssc.blogspot.com/2009/10/updated-2009-2010-winter-forecast.html
good, i hope things turn around and we get some better weather for once through the winter as well. we deserve a less snowy/cold winter for a change. most forecasts ive seen for halloween are calling for wind saturday but mid 50’s for highs, bill still says the 40’s. i hope the others are right or there will be no treat or treating this year for us.
And he seems to be a little hyper on all of his forecasts, like the hurricane forecast and the summer forecast. I’ll put his forecast on the back burner for now.
My money’s on Bill!
Accuweather is a joke………………
Who designated him an Expert (capital ‘E’ even) at long range forecasting? What criteria did you use?
EXACTLY!
Beyond the ’smoke & mirrors’ of Joe claiming ENSO NOT a big factor this year, while basically cut-n-pasting a map depicting exactly that—i’ve also heard rumors of analogs from ‘57-’58 & ‘65-’66 being thrown around like a security blanket there; silly me, i thought analogs were being replaced w/ state-of-the-art DIGITAL all this time
For the curious, 57-58 brought Minneapolis all of (approx.) 50% avg snowfall(23″)for the season. 65-’66? ..don’t even THINK about it!DET had 15″, or 1/2 the total measured at RICHMOND, VA that season!!
Mike
He’s also “throwing around” 69-70, 76-77, 77-78, and 02-03. He’s also pretty well nailed the last few winters using the old fashioned analogs.
michael g.– those analog years you posted provided VASTLY different outcomes wrt sensible wx vs ‘57-’58; ‘65-66 here in GL area….also , i’m w/ Rob D. on Joe’s verification ’skills’..though i believe him to be a decent man & agree w/ skepticism he shares over AGW
Mike
Woah there. That’s just what the article called him. No need to get rude or jealous.
When large corporations begin to pay you money for your forecasts, I think that’s very impressive for a meteorologist. Let alone, he’s nationally renowned and not even 50.
Still, you’re right… he’s no Bill! Just wanted to pass along another viewpoint into the debate.
Looks like Travis just ran into the new self appointed blog policeman.
Don’t worry Travis, I know from reading Bill’s stuff in the past that he reads Joe B’s column and respects his abilities, even if he doesn’t agree with him. Bastardi doesn’t put out his final winter forecast until November (around Thanksgiving I think), but he’s been hinting that it might look colder than his preliminary outlook.
Post above should have said “even if he doesn’t ALWAYS agree with him”.
I do get paid (by three different companies actually) for my forecasting. Thanks for asking though.
I’m just basing my comment on the last few years of his forecasts. Major hurricane hitting New York last year? Uh, no. Warm summer for the Great Lakes this year? Uh, no. Major severe weather season in the southern Plains? Uh, no.
If that’s what an expert provides, I’d hate to see a novice! Is his stuff worth reading? His analysis is good, but based on verification I don’t know how much value his forecasts are.
Well Rob, you came across as very jealous and close-minded that’s all. There’s not one meteorologist that gets every forecast right, not even you.
I think it’s beneficial to hear from many different viewpoints before coming to a conclusion. That’s how the world works, and Bill has always been very open to the opinion of others in his field. Sorry you feel differently and have to put down the man.
He’s made some bad calls, yes, but I think he’s been right more than he’s been wrong.
“During the 2004 hurricane season, Joe’s predictions of correct landfall areas were an average of 33 hours ahead of the National Hurricane Center, and he was the first to predict the return of the Ghost of Ivan. In mid-August 2002 he correctly forecast that heavy fall and winter precipitation would eliminate the drought in the eastern US. In 2001, he predicted Tropical Storm Allison would hit Houston with flooding rains and massive damage.”
And I think his ‘07 hurricane forecast only missed the number by one. Don’t be so quick to judge.
Bastardi is a fraud and a charlatan. He always uses weasel words and takes the shotgun approach, lising several different outcomes then claiming success if any of them pan out. Here’s a recent example of what he predicted for the 2009 hurricane season:
AccuWeather’s Chief Long-Range and Hurricane Forecaster Joe Bastardi said the greatest risk this year may be to the U.S. East Coast, but a storm in the oil-rich Gulf of Mexico could not be ruled out. Bastardi forecasts three of the storms striking the U.S. coast to be hurricanes with one a major hurricane packing winds of at least 111 miles per hour, rated as a category 3 on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale.
WRONG!! Yes he was dead wrong again but watch, he will claim success anyway. And some gullible people will believe him!
Doesnt matter. When winter gets here, it will be here. It’s Michigan. We deal with it and Mother Nature will give us what she wants.
and no bill a wet october means nothing. for all we know it may warm up and have very little snow, or snow that doesn’t stick around long this winter too. it’s anybody’s guess right now. all i know is as weird as this years weather has been, im ready for anything. i just hope this crap ends and we get back to norms by next year.
I think were out of the norms for the forseeable future here in michigan with weather and the economy.
Normal? This IS normal for Michigan. It’s called V A R I A B L E weather! Four seasons. Everything goes. Stop whining and wondering when it’s going to be “normal”. Enjoy it ALL! That’s why many of us STAY in Michigan!
Amen to that Beth! This fixxxer character sounds like a spoiled child, not an adult.
Bill,
I was wondering if you could explain your forecast for the winter a little more. I know that you are looking at the top 5 Octobers, but I wonder if you could possibly include some of the other factors included in your prediction such as AMO, Current ocean temps, Jet streams, La Nina, etc.
Some of us would really appreciate the info.
Thanks
I think that I remember Bill saying a few years back that a significant October snowfall tends to lead to a LESS snowy winter, so we’re on the right side of that one.
this is from weather fokelore;
If the first snowfall lands on unfrozen ground, the Winter will be mild
A warm October,
A cold February.
and one we will be able to check on before February
Much rain in October,
Much wind in December
and for a short list weather lore
http://www.stormfax.com/wxfolk.htm
of course there are other as well
SlimJim
That’s interesting!!! I love old wives tales/folklore!
Bring on the snow
Is there an ignore button or setting on these forums? I can’t find one. If not I would suggest adding one. Would make reading the BLOG much more pleasant if you don’t have to read the same dribble over and over.
Happy Halloween everyone!
Watch it, SNOW is a four-letter word! :^/
I don’t know who to belive anymore. Bill started out by comparing this winter to ones of the late 70’s. Now he says colder than average and snow fall less than the last couple years. From talking to older relatives, that would be no where near the late 70’s. wasn’t last year only about 20 inches above average. I for one am looking for a winter like i have not seen in my life time. I do snow removal in the winter, so let the snow fly.
bring it on enjoy michigans snows after all its what michigan is about(:
Older?? Sigh – I was in elementary school in the late 70’s and now in my low 40’s. I don’t feel old! LOL!
Mike,
As far as the snowfall in the late 70’s, there were BIG synoptic storms thats dropped snow measuring in the 12″ to 20″, the difference is the very cold air settled in and kept the snow on the ground thru most of those winters,and as the real cold settled in, A NW flow, would only deepen the ice on the lakes, reducing the chances of snow, also keeping southern storms much further south, so It seamed as if they were extremely snowy years because the snow stuck and the occassionaly clipper or lake effect would just add to the ground total!
The one winter Bill used as a comparison he said we had 2 foot the first 2 weeks of November and 80 inches by Christmas most years latley we are lucky to get snow by 1st of december.
When I say talking to older relatives, I was only about 4 in the late 70’s. Too young to remember.
just read tom skillings report from lasts night weather and here is what he says about wet octobers so read scroll down and see what ya think http://weblogs.wgntv.com/chicago-weather/tom-skilling-blog/
He’s talking about wet Octobers and weather in the Chicago area. Is that close enough to Grand Rapids to make a comparison? I would predict that weather in west Michigan is much different than that in Chicago due to the location of the Great Lakes in relation to both cities.
Its not that much different, in reality its very close.
SlimJim
Correct – GRR gets about twice as much snow in a normal year than Chicago and about 4*F colder.
Those are some interesting comparisons, Bill! My logic was – “Maybe with all this wet dreary weather – all the earth will get all of the moisture out of her system, and we will have a dry winter!!” That might be true for a week’s worth of weather – but apparently not a season!! HA! Rob Dale – you make me smile – you da man!
I put the outboard motor away for the winter last night. Not going to get caught. Boat is still on the trailer though. Could throw the electric back on to fish close to a dock. I like WGN’s forcasts. They give an in-depth description of why things will be they way the forcast. Maybe they have longer totalk since it’s an hour show.
It’s snowing hard out in Denver today. We’re supposed to get 10 – 16 inches (higher amounts closer to the foothills) by tomorrow afternoon. This is similar to the Bronco’s Blizzard of 1997 that dumped about 20 inches of snow around the area. This will all be gone though by the time early next week comes around.
Cool Daniel, you should postr some pictures on post it here on TV 8 web site..
SNOW…HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 14 TO 28 INCHES ARE EXPECTED…WITH UP TO 36
INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH
WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
What will be interesting to find out is how much lake effect we will get this winter. Many times areas past 131 get hardly any snow and in Hudsonville we have “tons”
That’s one reason I’m glad to be in the Metro GR area…Even as yucky as we get it at times…everyone around us seems to get it worse. Almost like there’s a dome over us here…LOL!
I hope it’s a nice easy winter…I don’t mind snow so much…it’s the bitter cold that gets to me.
I’m still waiting to here from my niece who is stuck out west of Denver with no cell phone use and phone/power lines down everywhere. The last I heard from her was around midnight last night and told to hang on you’ll be out there for awhile.
jeess why fight over the weather forecast? long as you have a snow blower and 4WD you will be fine!