Rain/Wind Wrap
October 30th, 2009 at 3:42 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
<–Live radar of W. Michigan. Nothing on it this Sat. Night. Friday Evenings gusts: 50 mph at Spyglass at the Holland Channel, 49 mph at Lansing and at the Grand Haven Channel, 47 mph at Battle Creek, Muskegon and Ionia, 44 mph at Tulip City Airport in Holland, 41 mph at Grand Rapids. Rainfall totals: 3.84″ near Mt. Pleasant, 3.58″ at WOOD (Heritage Hill), 3.49″ near Ludington, 3.29″ East G.R., 3.07″ Sparta, 2.93″ Benton Harbor MoreRainfall totals listed here. The record rainfall for GRR for Oct. 30 was 1.02″ and we tripled that! Some flood reports from WOOD-TV. Hope the football fields can drain…otherwise they may have to play water polo instead of football. More links: Here’s GRR NWS radar, GRR storm total rainfall, Great Lakes radar Storm Total Rainfall, latest surface observations, a surface weather map, GRR NWS discussion, Visible Satellite loop (daytime), Infrared Satellite Loop (night), Here’s Milwaukee NWS radar and Chicago radar, Chicago storm total rainfall, the Spyglass Weather Station (Holland Channel) and the Muskegon GLERL weather station. Gale Warnings for Lake Michigan.
doesn’t look like it’s gonna make the mid 60’s at all today. and of course another cloudy day. very depressing weather.
Holland 63, Grand Rapids 62.
Yet another great forecast from Fixxed.
No sun today…none tomorrow…none on Saturday…broken record. Long range is looking very cold at this point(2nd week of Nov.)…but could be wrong.
i just looked at accuweathers 15 day and we don’t drop much below the high 40’s 50’s. i don’t see any snow on the immediate horizon.
I don’t think accuweather’s 15-days should be trusted.
no ones forecast stays the same for more than 2 days. but overall i don’t see any major snow events or cold air headed this way. maybe we will luck out and have a warm winter? i dunno, it would make sense considering this whole year has been very weird.
Amen Ben!!……I’d sooner trust a fox to guard the hen-house!
ps- friendly wager for “fix-this”:IF we don’t receive MEASURABLE snowfall BEFORE Nov. 14th; i’ll spend the night in my underwear @ any beach on Lake Mi;-)
get ready to freeze your butt off irish.
CPC says you should be nice and warm and dry!
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php
ohh no, you better strategically place that coffe cup. LOL
Fix/Scott/Chad et;al takers:
* Allow me to UP the ante — i’ll throw in an Irish JIG as i recite ALL 1990 pgs. of ‘LITE’House healthcare reform bill-
from MEMORY- in Hanes from atop So. Haven lighthouse…IOW, I’M ALL IN! (snow before 11-14)
And in the words of Dick Vitale: “LET IT SNOW BABY!!UH-OH!!”
Mike
But what does the GFS say?
This time of year I don’t look past day 7 the models haven’t adjusted to a different season coming. When we get closer toward December than I could go out about day 14 maybe beyond.
14 day forecasts? In December? Hmmm… I know of a weather business in Pennsylvania that would hire you in a heartbeat, or an almanac written for the agricultural industry. But there’d be no real value in it.
Wonder if Sat will at least be dry – have another marching band competition. We have yet to have one that is either dry or warm (other than Otsego). It’s hard to play those instruments in the cold – you have to keep air going through them to stay warm. Poor kids would like to have one good show!
I don’t miss those days!!! LOL!!!
also im hearing dry and low 50’s for saturday, ill take that over rain and freezing cold. i just wish the darn sun would stay out. we have to be breaking records here.
Hey everyone! Cloudy all day here, boring, nothing new!
It has been foggy here almost all day but it is almost burned off finally and the sun is peaking through at times.
id like one totally clear day with sunshine. this cloudy weather can really drag you down and out.
At least the long-range models look warm:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/index.php
Hoping for some storms tomorrow.
Rain, OK. Snow? Not ready for that four-letter word yet!!!
Sure wish we had more than just a couple days of Indian Summer to enjoy. Oh well, this is Michigan!
I love this weather. It’s perfect for Halloween. Cloudy low skies, wind, rain, cool, but comfortable temperatures. Can’t get much better.
I agree with Kevin w. The models flip/flop enough..but can’t even seem to latch onto an overall pattern past 4 days.
First perceptible precip. on my deck (Lamoreaux&Alpine) at 9:50pm- let the rain begin….
Bill, do you know what it’s going to be like travel wise on november 7 from here to ann arbor startin from about 8am?
It is impossible to forecast what will happen hour-by-hour at 8 days away. Impossible.
Just looked at my weatherbug rainfall ready (course its going up every second) and it read 0.66″ and ^ing
WOW! Is this just about one of the wettest Octobers on record? It just keeps raining everyday or very close to everyday. BE careful out there, there is a lot of standing water on the roads! It looks like we are staying a little warmer in the long range than was earlier forecasted. I thought sure we may have a taste of our first snow by Halloween.
My weatherbug is reporting 2.06″ of rain and still coming down heavily
2.73″ of rain in the Byron Center area since Midnight..Wow, this almost seems like 40 straight days of rain!! Looking at the regional radar, it looks as if we could have quite a bit more to come today (Friday). With all of this rain, I would be curious to see what the effect has been on Lake Michigan water levels….
It’s really warm out there. The wind was really blowing though!!!
68 in Saugatuck when I walked in 45 minutes ago. 2.45″ of rain with the first batch, and now the 2nd batch has moved in. Up to 10.25″ for the month.
There’s a report of a van that was stranded, stuck in water over a roadway here in Holland.
wow the 18z euro had us cold next weekend now its not so bad and the 12z gfs had us cold now its warm so figure on that one. I’m not betting on anything now past 5 days if even that much till we get into more of the winter mode. I think thats what bill is waiting on to see what the pattern shows about mid november. I see on the radar for storm totals that some areas have gotten close or over 3 inches of rain and still looks about another inch. It looks like we don’t buckle the jet stream likes its been for about 2 weeks or maybe 3 then the models show deep jet stream action the week of thanksgiving…..if we can believe that, will see.
There’s a small lake in our yard that I haven’t seen before…
Quite a bit of rain all day and it’s still coming down!
some nice winds a blowing here tonight.. 1.5″ of rain
Just like Bill said, looks like we’re going to have a pretty windy Hallowe’en!
The wind rustling through the trees will make for creepy sound effects. 
71 degrees at my house right now at 10pm! Nice out! Raining though.
Here’s an update on the winter outlook from Joe Bastardi for those who are interested. (Not his final forecast) If you’re NOT interested, that’s fine, please keep it to yourself.
Chicago and Minneapolis will not be as cold or snowy as recent winters but will not escape winter this year. The place that will be noticeably warmer and drier is the Northwest with an active southern branch leading to the wettest winter in California since 2002-03.
But 1976-77 is getting the most play by me as it has the same October precip pattern and temps, has the same kind of pdo reversal set up, has the same mei scale and also the same kind of solar cycle.
I want to mention other analogs that I am strongly weighing in: 2002-03, 1977-78 and 1969-70. All these are El Nino winters that had a three-year PDO, like 1976-77, running a full degree or more less than the three-month winter PDO 1976-77 was extreme with at or over 3 degrees. But one sees that relationship, winter El Nino followed by a long running cold PDO. The warm PDOs before an El Nino we saw in the 1980s and 1990s were not as cold. Other physical reasons including the cooler nino 1.2 and the Indian Ocean Dipole are factored in. The look in the Atlantic, a “tripole” if you will with warm water, north of 50, cooler near 40, then warm again from 30 south south is also something that showed up in 2002. Basically because we still have time to look at the winter, the temps I settled on were the analogs divided in 2 and next month when the final winter idea comes out, I will get bolder with the colder if what I see going on now continues. As it is, this is major cold and more-than-normal snow and ice in a population weighted areas that makes this the coldest winter since 2002-03 for the East and South, and a break for the Northwest into the western High Plains in the heart of winter
Not interested. He should get his own blog – we trust Bill more for long-range outlooks.
You know Rob, I have no idea whether you are who you actually claim to be or if you’re some weird 16 year old impersonator but I do know that you are making this an unpleasant place to be. Time to open up a can of STFU. I’m out.
Just let me know what the GFS says, and we’ll be happy.
As I recall there were many here going with its forecast for severe weather yesterday followed by a big snow this weekend. When some of the more knowledgeable on the forum pointed out that using a single, non-ensemble run of the GFS was a bad idea — they were ripped. Looks like they were right.
It’s just funny how much people spend all their time copy-n-pasting other blogs or forecasters instead of taking some time to learn on their own. You get much more out of the process by saying “This is what I see, and why I think it will warm up next week” as opposed to saying “I think November will be warm because the 30day outlook from CPC says warm.”
If this blog can handle 37 posts a day from Fixxed saying “I hate cold” then a few posts from weather experts saying “What are you using to come up with that forecast?” shouldn’t be a harm either. Even the NWS does it — there’s no legal requirement to write an AFD, but when you give a forecast then adding the reasoning to the process gives you believability.
Michael, I really hate to agree with you on anything, but Rob’s comment about not being interested is a little pompous and really, who cares. Now let’s look at your 16 year old answer to Rob. Open up a can of STFU. Are you trying to make it pleasant for everyone? Sure doesn’t seem like it to me.
Peace Out
Rob, What makes you trust Bill over anyone. Just curious. I have asked Bill to explain his long range forecasts and we get no response. I’m waiting, still waiting, as Bill would so childishly put it. The only answers that we get are that based on previous cold/wet months, we should have a good chance of snow and cold. If the older data is contrary to Bill’s observation, then the older data can’t possibly be accurate. My point is that to stand up for one met over another who basically throw darts at a board to get long range outlooks is pointless.
Peace Out
Just because you don’t see communications between me and Bill on this blog – doesn’t mean they don’t occur using other means.
Rob,
You are missing my point. What does your emailing bill about the B93 roof sit have to do with how he presents his long term forecasts to his listeners? I am wondering how his explanations are more credible than anyone else?
(Sorry Bill.)
I know what you mean, Michael. You even stated “if not interested, keep it to yourself” He missed that. Who is Rob Dale? I always thought he was a MET.
Maybe not. I’m really not trying to stir up trouble, I do enough of that, REALLY! I think Joe Bastardi is pretty good in his long range discussion. Is he always right?, of course not! He definitely has a good way of discussing all of the variables that could affect a long range weather forecast. You know how difficult that is? Especially, to get it right? Close to impossible.
Sleeting now
whats with the rain again today? i thought it was suppose to just be cloudy. my kids are heartbroken because now they cannot go out in this crap.
Thank goodness, I was worried about you not hearing your complaints yet today. Glad to see things are back to normal at the Fixxed house!
I can’t wait for the storms of Winter. M excited to see what “Winter Weather” brings to West Michigan. Also, right now it’s hard to predict anything right now. Really, we dont know what to expect.. I think that people should stop guessing and wait for “Bill’s 2009-2010 WINTER FORECAST” Can’t Wait!! HAPPY HALLOWEEN!!!!!!!! AND HAPPY EST!
I slept thru bigger rainstorms than this… and id like Rob Dale to big talk me and and prove it!