Winter Forecast 2009-2010
November 5th, 2009 at 6:16 pm by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
<–After the Blizzard of ‘78 (Dude, where’s my car??!!). Here’s how I began last year’s winter forecast: “One of the best winter forecasts ever made was recorded by Laura Ingalls Wilder (in “The Long Winter“) while her family was homesteading in the fall of 1880 near what is now DeSmet, South Dakota. While the settlers gathered at the general store, a dignified, old Native American comes to warn the settlers about the coming “heap, big snows – for 7 (full) moons”. Most of the settlers heeded the warning and moved to town for the winter. Just as predicted, the blizzards came from late October to early April. This winter West Michigan won’t see blizzards for 7 full moons…but we’re going to have plenty of cold and snow between late November and late March.”
That last sentence proved to be true. Only a monster thaw on the weekend after Christmas (the temperature hit 60° due to the “Cancun Connection”) prevented us from getting some “Blizzard of ‘78″ style snow piles that would have really added up because the temperature stayed below freezing for all but a few hours during January (which was nearly five degrees colder than average). Here’s the bulk of last year’s forecast which you can reread here:
“Having digested all of this and more, I think snowfall this winter (2008-09) over the area will be above normal, varying from 55-60 inches in Lansing area to 85 inches in Grand Rapids to 100 inches in the favorable lake-effect areas. Marquette in the Upper Peninsula should top 150” for the winter. I think it’ll be colder than average in December. Lake Michigan is a little warmer than average and the lake temperature will stop for a week or two around 39 degrees as the lake water “overturns”. This will set the stage for some significant lake-effect snow in late November into December. We have a 57% chance of a White Christmas in Grand Rapids. This year I think the chance of a White Christmas (snow on the ground) will be at least 75%. We will see a January thaw, but winter will drag on a little later into March, when temperatures may again be a little cooler than average. This will mean we’ll have to spend a fair amount of money on plowing, sanding and salting. That will be a concern as the winter drags on during these financially lean times. So, don’t be afraid to get the season ski pass, get the snowmobile or cross country skies ready or find the ice fishing equipment. Winter is definitely on the way! This pattern will mean only brief incursions of cool air to central and southern Florida, so if you want to escape the cold, that would be a nice place to be.”
Let’s see how I did: I got the above normal snowfall right. I wasn’t quite high enough on the totals, but I don’t think I’d ever forecast +100″ in a mid-fall forecast. We did get some heavy lake-effect snow from late November into early December. Holland had 67″ of snowfall before Christmas Eve (sometimes they don’t get that much in any entire winter), including over 3 feet of snow from Nov. 16 to Dec. 9. We did get the White Christmas. We didn’t get a January thaw, but we did get monster thaws on the weekend between Christmas and New Year’s and also on Feb. 10-11. So the idea of a thaw was correct, but I missed the timing. The first week of March was cold (as cold as 5 above), but the weather story in March was +70% sunshine. The weather turned chilly again in early April (just in time for spring break) with below average temps. from April 4-14. BTW, Tampa FL. was 0.6° warmer than average for Dec. thru Feb. The cold air never really got down to south Florida.
There is so much to study when making up a winter forecast. I look at the prevailing upper level winds, world sea-surface temperatures, the cold that builds up by mid-Autumn in the Arctic, sunspot cycles, the Atlantic, Arctic and Pacific Decadal Oscillations, 2009 Atlantic hurricane patterns (a very wimpy year for tropical storms), the number of 90-degree days we’ve had during the previous summer (7 in the last 2 summers combined, average is 9.5 for one summer), and the current state of La Nina/El Nino. We look back through our weather history to find correlations to the current conditions around the northern hemisphere and years when similar conditions were prevalent in the fall. Any forecast is a guess, an “educated guess”. The data base and the computer models aren’t good enough for near perfect forecast (won’t be in my lifetime), but long range forecasting has improved with new technology over the past 30 years, especially with weather satellites.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac made what I think is a pretty good prediction. Their forecast for the winter in our area is for warm weather for early November, very cold weather in December, a little warmer than average in January, near normal in February and a little colder than average in March. The Almanac is forecasting below normal precipitation for December to February and above normal in March. Keep in mind that we can have above normal snowfall and below normal precipitation at the same time (less rain/more fluffy snow when it’s cold). Joe D’Aleo, a very respected long range forecaster, has worked with the Almanac this past year.
The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center forecast is for near to above normal temperatures in Michigan and near to below normal precipitation. NOTE: You CAN have both below average precipitation AND above average snowfall (if more of the precipitation falls as snow instead of rain and/or if the snow is light and fluffy with less water content. Local Grand Rapids NWS meteorologist Bill Marino usually issues a winter outlook and when he does, I’ll link to it here.
An interesting note…over the past 10 years, snowfall has trended upward in Grand Rapids and Muskegon.
First of all, we are in a weak/low moderate El Nino. We had La Nina conditions last winter and wound up with 107″ of snow in Grand Rapids, our 2nd highest total ever. The pattern went neutral this summer, and is now trending back toward La Nina, although it is now a weak La Nina. Last year was one of the snowiest (if not THE SNOWIEST) winter in North America. I don’t think we’ll have a repeat of that, but the pattern would suggest near to above normal snowfall for the Great Lakes.
We have been in a sunspot minimum in 2008. August was the first calendar month since 1913 without a single sunspot. History has shown a correlation between the number of sunspots and global temperature. While this is more of a consideration for long-term climate (decades), I note that the Sporer, Maunder and Dalton sunspot minimum periods coincided with a cooling of global temperature. The current sunspot minimum has been a little longer and stronger than expected and has been accompanied by a decrease in the solar wind.
Winter has come on strong in parts of the Arctic. At Alert in northern Canada, the average temperature for October was two below zero. There is already an extensive snow cover across much of Alaska and Canada. Ice has already started to form in northern Hudson Bay (the last ice melted off on Sept. 6 – so the Bay was only ice-free for less than two months!). Temperatures have crashed in Siberia. Verkoyansk has been running 11.5 degrees colder than average over the past 8 days with lows running from -30 to -40. Snow has fallen over much of northern China and early snows resulted in the earliest start to the ski season in part of the Alps.
We have had a very weak severe weather season this year. We’ve only had one tornado fatality in the U.S. since May 13th, and only 22 tornado fatalities for the year. The hurricane season has also been weak over not only the Atlantic/Caribbean, but pretty much worldwide with the exception of the western Pacific.
I also checked many years when we had notable climate events, like the wet weather in October. The wettest years in October have usually brought us above normal snowfall in the following winter. We only four days this summer that reached 90 degrees (and only 6 in the last two summers combined – two years in a row without a 90-degree day in July).
I think the El Nino will produce above average cloud cover and precipitation across much of the southern U.S. The storm track will be WSW to ENE and should bring more snow than last year to areas south of a line from Champaign Illinois to Fort Wayne, Indiana to Cleveland, Ohio. There will likely be a couple of big snowstorms in the Appalachian Mountains and at least one of those storms should bring signfiicant snow to the big East Coast Cities (more snow there than last year). I’ll add that El Nino years tend to favor getting a late winter tornado outbreak in Florida.
Having digested all of this and more, I think snowfall this winter over the area will be above average, but less than the totals we reached in 2007-8 and 2008-9. Here’s the estimated winter snowfall for this year (first) compared to the winter snowfall for last year: Grand Rapids – 83″ (104.9″), Muskegon – 110″ (148.2″), Holland (Tulip City) – 96″ (122.4″), Kalamazoo 77″ (103.9″), Battle Creek – 58″ (77.7″), Lansing 53″ (70.7″). I think it’ll be warmer than average between now and about Nov. 20, with cold and snow moving in. The Lake Michigan water temperature is still in the low 50s, still fairly mild. The lake temperature will stop for a week or two around 39 degrees as the lake water “overturns”. This will set the stage for some significant lake-effect snow in very late November into the first three weeks of December. This will likely be with northwest flow, bringing the most significant snow to the lakeshore counties, west of a line from Hesperia to Fruitport to Hopkins to Kalamazoo. The period between Thanksgiving and New Years Day looks cold to me. You might want to think about getting the Christmas lights up before it gets really cold. We have a 57% chance of a White Christmas in Grand Rapids. Once again his year I think the chance of a White Christmas (snow on the ground) will be at least 75%. We will see a January thaw with the temperature gets into the 40s briefly, but I think overall this winter will be 1-2 degrees colder than average. There is a better chance for a March snow event this year. I’ll add that weak El Ninos usually bring a fairly sharp move to spring, featuring warm weather by May.
All this will mean we’ll have to spend a fair amount of money on plowing, sanding and salting. That will be a concern as the winter drags on during these financially lean times. So, don’t be afraid to get the season ski pass, get the snowmobile or cross country skies ready or find the ice fishing equipment. Winter is definitely on the way!
Bill: Love the Winter Forecast for all of your thought and study that you put into it!! I’m going to give my own prediction for snowfall total. I say we receive 94 inches of snow in the GR area for the 2009-2010 season!
Thanks for all you research, Bill! I’m going to ENJOY this brief “warm up” for a few days. Is Winter right on its heals? Do we have snow on the ground on Thanksgiving?
That’s great news! I have been praying for lots of snow and cold for this winter! I hope it goes as forecasted. Unearthed the skis out yesteday, to be ready for the right moment. Thanks Bill!
Considering all the politics surrounding “climate change”, and the agenda-driven so-called “experts, we are truly fortunate to have Bill Steffen – an actual expert – who takes the time & effort to do the research and provide thoughtful forecasting based on facts and scientific analysis. Great job Bill…thank you !!!
So will Coldwater get more snow than last year?
We all know that long range forecasts are not more then a (guess) and now Bill’s is written so we just have to wait and see how it all unfolds.
In looking back not all El Nino winters were warm nor were all La Nina winters cold in fact some were just the opposite. I have said this now for a couple of years (so one time I will get it right LOL) but we are over due for 1. a major ice storm 2. a major snow storm 3. a warm winter with little snow. 4. a extremely cold winter So what will we end up with? Right now I will stick with Bill’s guess and see what happens.
SlimJim
Thanks for the forecast Bill. Maybe we will get a big snow storm like we had in the winter of 77-78.
hope not
Thanks Bill…always enjoy your winter forecast! Looking forward to some 60 degree sunny days in the next week.
We are expecting guest from Lansing for Thanksgiving. We are close to Grand Rapids (Greenville) will we have to worry about bad weather?
I am excited about Bill’s winter forecast I hope he is right.
I have gone through 30lbs. of black oil sun flower seed. If this this any indication this early, this winter could turn out very interestinging.
I agree with you about watching nature’s signs. The animals know instinctively what’s going to happen, and they prepare for it.
Thanks for the hard work Bill…I know all of the research it takes to come up with a winter prediction is very time consuming, we appreciate it very much!
I also have never seen sparows eat suet like thet have the last couple of weeks. Packing on some extra weight for the winter.
My prediction is cold with snow,warming in April/May
Troll.
boo, winter.
Thanks Bill…I always look forward to your winter forecast.And this one was full of interesting information..I plan to investigate many of your links. Living near Hesperia in a favorable lake effect area, I hope you are wrong..lol But you are usually dead on when it comes to my area.
I look forward to following this thread.
I’m predicting that the spring will have alot of severe weather and tornadoes. I believe will go from winter into severe weather mode after mid april and continue through the early parts of summer and I also predict that June and July will turn out cooler than average with a below normal temp summer pattern. I also think sometime in January that will have a week of thaw followed by some very brutal cold with nasty lake effects and will see two back to back mammoth snowstorms the first week of March before we turn the page toward spring. Once we get rid of the bermuda high thats now in place winter will come in big time and stay through mid January.
Can you push that March snowstorm back to the second week? LOL. We are moving that week…though every time I have moved it has been winter and treacherous…
I agree, my sister’s baby is due March 7 so maybe we could just move those storms to the last week of March. I am the Dr will make sure she delivers before that last week!
someone should create a severe weather facebook page so we can chat
Brrrrrrrrrrrrr Glad to have gone west bk
Bill, I can tell by reading your weather blogs that you are very interested in weather forecasting, and you put a lot of effort into what you do. I really enjoy reading your blogs and forecasts.
i like that forcast. i hope that all those guys that just bought a truck and plow and underbidded real companies realize the true cost of plowing. i am glad i didn’t have problems with my customers this season but heard many others being underbidded by half the cost. thats alright its always said you get what you paid for. those companies that switched will always go back to the guys who do it at the right price and do it well. hope bills right again this season. loved last season. thanks bill.
I have heard alot of the under bidding going on. I wonder if they were basing it off the earlier predictions (from others) of above temp and below snow. I’m with you, hope they have a good summer job to make up for the loss. Here’s to lot’s of snow. =)
I have seen pricing back to 10 plus years ago in GR. These people can’t be making money. I have seen companies that have been around for over 30 years bidding for dirt just to keep busy. We all know that the single trucks come and go, just usually long enough to go bankrupt, but they seem to be out in herds lately. I have dropped my salt prices to 6 years ago just to keep my current contracts. My truck payments, insurance, fuel, maintenance, materials, and labor are all much higher, but the only thing lower is profit! These lowballers need to go. They are hurting the entire plowing industry.
Kevin:
Unfortunately that occurs in most service based businesses.
I can hear you guys now! =)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KLni3wbndls
Allegan,
I wish that I could say that I agree, but I don’t. Any yahoo with a truck and a blade thinks that they can get into snow removal. It really doesn’t take a lot of startup to get going half ars if you know what I mean. Most are happy to turn 20 0r 30 bucks an hour. They have no idea how much there operating costs are. Besides cleaning, what other service industry is so easily saturated with hacks?
They Took ‘R Jobs!!!
Derka derb!!!!
yea i hear you there. i just hope that these lowbidders are not going to put a bad image on us or cause our insurance to go through the roof next season. i can always tell when lowbidders are out, the next season insurance rate always goes up at least 100-300 dollars for the year. they must not have been bad last season since my insurance fell 300 dollars for the year. well i don’t think they are even running insurance anyways especially if you are bidding a 125 parking spot lot for 35 dollars a push. hell it costs me more than that with all costs figured in. maybe the county or state needs to step in and have some sort of regulation on plowers. they have regulation on builders and some areas of landscaping. maybe they should do the same for plowers. it only costs me 250 dollars more a year to hold my other licenses. but bottom line business that require plowing will always have a problems with the flyby night plowers and most cancel contracts midseason and return to a reliable trusting company that knows what they are doing. i have had several companies last year and the year before do just that. people have always told me if you take care of a customer and go above and beyond with them they will always use your services no matter the cost. but hey i always work pricing out with them anyways. snows coming soon i guess will find out how long those lowbidders will last again this year. i am betting on they wont make it past 2 or 3 snowfalls before they realize they cant do the job. LETS BRING ON THE SNOW!!!!!!!!!!
Holland,
You know the plowers that really kill us are the outfits that have the equipment like many excavating companies. These guys make there money all summer and bid the large jobs for plowing just to keep there equipment running during winter months. Many do a piss poor job, but do it so cheap that the companies that know what we are doing have no chance to get rid of them. Lowballers suck, but many of these large outfits are even worse. They hit us where the profitable jobs are. Oh well, enough complaining. I just want to enjoy the next week or so that we are able to sleep through the night without getting up every hour to check for snow and ice. 5 months of restlessness is almost upon us!!!!!!!!!!!!
Peace Out
I hear ya, try to make a living plowing in Muskegon, doing either lawn care or plowing. If I was not worried about quality I would hire all subs and sit in the warm and blog while they were out plowing……..lol I can hire subs all day long that will plow with their own equip/fuel/repairs/ins/ ect for $25-30 per hour…..crazy, i once told a guy wanting to pay me That amount that I would not sit in my truck in my driveway idling for $25.00 per hour. He laughed and said well you can plow 20 hrs every time it snows….”roll eyes”
But everyone does it. But ya know they come and go each year and how else would we get GREAT deals on used snow equipment in the spring…….HAHAHA Bring on the 110″ for me.
Todd,
$25 to $30 per hour for subs. Please send them my way. I will have a foreman follow them around all night long while I soak in my hot tub:) My subs have been over $50 per hour for 10 years. I guess if they are that stupid they deserve to make that amount of money. Each piece of my equipment averages over $100 per hour. Some slightly below and others above, but I need to be there to cover our overhead. What many of these lowballer don’t concider is the fact that the trucks and plows will brake. I remember my second year out, I had $15000.00 in repairs and we grossed $9000.00 in plowing. That was about enough for me. Since then, I have wised up in many areas. Of course, I do this for a living and many of these lowballer don’t.
Peace Out
We’ve hired a snowplow service for the first time ever. It’s a regular landscaping company that switches to plowing during the winter. I’m looking forward to enjoying the snow without having to shovel our driveway.
These guys said that they will come out twice during the same day if it’s really bad and will also check to make sure that the county trucks don’t block our driveway.
Lisa,
You will enjoy having the service. We don’t do very many residential driveways anymore, but it sounds like the company that you are using knows a little bit about what they are doing. We make sure our drivways are done before 7 AM and if we have 2 inches or more during the day, we clean it out before people return from work. The county plows are hard to work around. They seem to block the drives right after our trucks leave, so try to give your company a break on that. Have a great winter.
Peace Out
Bill
Appreciate the work you put into these and look forward to your call for winter every fall. I love winter weather and since moving here in 2000 haven’t been disappointed. I do however also like your call for a quick switch to warm in the spring!….this past summer was a little too cool for my taste.
Is it fair to say you are in agreement with JB’s call?
Thanks for the great detail and explanations Bill! That is some forecast. I see you didn’t mention the UP, so I assume that means we will have a mild winter with lots of sunshine and snow only on Christmas?!
Yesterday I was traveling from Lansing to Sault Ste. Marie. After crossing the bridge in high winds, I found sunshine. Just north of St. Ignace, I saw a wall of snow! The temperature dropped from 42 degrees to 31 degrees in just two minutes as I moved through that area. It was extremely hard to even see the road. In about 15 minutes, I drove out of it and the temp returned to about 39 degrees.
So basically, a pretty average winter huh?
Thanks Bill! I hope I can catch some of those Fort Wayne to Cleveland storms!
I know this is a little off topic but does any one know how I can get a specific radar image of GRR from Oct 22 around 8 – 9am?
Looking forward to an average winter, or at least less snow than last year. Thanks for the forecast Bill!!
The 8am image:
http://www4.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-win/wwcgi.dll?wwNexrad~SelectedImage~20091022~1200
Going to pick up my new Ariens snow blower today. I’m done with crappy single stage blowers, and now will be able to help out my older neighbors with their driveways.
Hey Bill – EXCELLENT forecast for this winter! Just so no snow storms the 24th of December and weekend of Jan 2nd so my kids can get here from PA and back home. Boy do I remember the blizzard of ‘78 vividly. Shiver…hope to never see that again.
Cool post from Jesse Ferrell’s blog about the HUGE strom off Alaska!
http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-blogs.asp?partner=accuweather&blog=weathermatrix
May seems so far away right now!
I’m not complaining here but am I missing something? All I’m seeing in the blog is what he forecasted LAST year and how he did, where is this years forecast? (again, I’m REALLY not complaining but asking)
push the more button on the bottom of the page.
wow …………… knew I was tired but that’s baaaaaaad. lol!! Thanks!
LOL! “Dude, where’s my car?”
I HOPE you’re right, Bill!
Bill,
What are the typical lake effect snow belt areas? Usually we here that it is west of 131, but over the last few years the lake effect seems to be moving over southwest kent into barry counties. Are you counting these areas in the 100 or so inch range?
Not a bad Outlook Bill. I do agree with alot of it. However per Grand Rapids NWS Battle Creek officially had 109.6″ last winter. Check out the now data section on the GRR website. And yes it was the snowiest winter ever on record for Battle Creek anyways. And that 57″ you have would be below the normal which i have listed at 60″. BTW.. 10yr average for Battle Creek is running at over 70″ which tell’s you just how snowy the decade has been. Keep in mind there is missing data in 01-02, 02-03, 04-05, 05-06. So you have to do a little searching for the actual figures for Battle Creek if using NWS or Utah climo site. Most of it was because of lack of snowfall reports and faulty equipment at KBTL so i am told by the guys at Grand Rapids. Issue actually goes even further back. Evidently it has been fixed. HOPEFULLY all from the area will take the time to submit your snowfall totals this winter to here ( Bill ) and the NWS. They could really use them.
Anyways, Have a good one Bill and good luck with the call.
It is not far from my own ideas!!
Harry
Battle Creek getting over 100″ inches of snow last winter???? I highly doubt that’s accurate…yes, we had above average snowfall last winter, but that’s just a little too high to be believable, especially considering that Battle Creek isn’t really in the “lake effect” snowbelt, which would have warranted having that much snowfall.
Umm yeah we did crack a 100. I as well keep track of each and every snowfall and the final total and yes that is what we ended up with. And where were you in January when we had the Lake effect snow warning that dropped over a half a foot? Had two such Lake Effect events last winter. Or better yet where were you in Nov and Dec 2000 when the Lake went gang busters here? Same thing in Dec 2001. Not trying to be rude but it amazes me how forgetful some are. Keep in mind that other then when we had the late Dec Thaw nearly every single storm tracked to our south. I guess you as well forget the deep piles of snow we had at Christmas and then again by Feb 1st? So deep that they had to truck a bit of it off to Post cereals lot and over by Michigan ave and Elm ST. Need me to post the pics or link you to my pics?
The meteorologist in North Dakota is predicting record cold for a long stretch of time this winter and says nothing about el nino. In fact he is saying that will have a weak la nina winter and a moderate to strong la nina next winter. He even says that he is concerned in his area that some people are so financially struck that they may not have heat when the real cold hits in his state. So much for noaa’s forecast of above normal there.
Thanks for your winter forecast Bill. I appreciate your hard work and research to bring this together for us.
MAY IS RIGHT AROUND THE CORNER.. I can dream!! Guess I better get oil for my snow thrower!! Thanks!
Its to the point where anything less than the 73 inch average would seem like an off winter.
Thanks Bill, I’m so glad you love what you do- it shows!!!
Thanks for the forecast- it looks great! Hopefully the other dining hall of my camp doesn’t collapse this year.
Gerber Scout Camp Dining Hall Collapses