The Winter Forecast – Shovel Ready

October 27th, 2011 at 10:15 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

This is going to be a winter, if you get my drift!  The first map is the average North American winter conditions for La Nina. The second map is global sea surface temperatures, with the blue colors indicating areas where the water is colder than average, and yellow/orange where sea surface temperatures are warmer than average – click on the maps to enlarge)  This is the second year in a row that we are heading into winter with La Nina (characterized by colder than average water temperatures along the Equator in the Pacific Ocean west of S. America).  The La Nina this year is not as strong as the La Nina of one year ago.  Here’s a map showing what last winter was like over the U.S. – only two of 48 states were colored warm.   So, the first place to begin a winter forecast is with the general conditions favored by La Nina, shown in the map on the left.   We see colder than average weather from Alaska down through the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies and Northern Plains…with warmer than average conditions on the whole from Arizona east across the southern U.S. to the Mid-Atlantic States (though Florida and the Southeast can get some good cold shots in early winter when we have La Nina).  This provides a greater contrast than usual between warm to the south and cold to the north, implying some hefty storms this winter.  The battle zone in between the warm air to the south and the cold air to the north will be the mean storm track for the winter…you can see the tendency for above average winter precipitation from the Pacific Northwest, across the Rockies (Denver’s already had a decent snowstorm this week), into the Ohio Valley.  Areas on the northern edge of the avearge storm track will see above average snowfall, and that’s where the Southern Great Lakes is going to be this winter. (Click on “read on” to continue…).

If you look on the sea surface anomaly map on the right above, you can also see blue color (colder sea surface temperatures) in the shape of a backwards “C” across the northern Pacific, past Alaska and down the West Coast of the U.S. and northwest Mexico. That pattern is called a cold PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation). Look at this graph of the PDO over the past 110 years (side note…the PDO Graph is actually a better fit to U.S. temperatures over the past century than CO2. Note how temperatures tend to go down during extended periods with general cold PDOs like the 50s to 70s and then warmer with the warmer phase of the PDO, like during the 80s, 90s and 2000s). Note this article mentions the tendency for above average precipitation in the Great Lakes during winter when there is a cold PDO.

I’ve looked at so much more…what happened in years when we had both a La Nina and a large number of Atlantic basin hurricanes (we’re already up to the letter “R” this season), the water temperature of the Great Lakes (a little warmer than average) and Hudson Bay, the early season cold across Alaska and Northern Canada (the average temperature for the town of Alert has been -1.9°F for October), the growth of the Arctic icecap (about the same place as this time in 2009 and more ice than 2008 or 2007), the (rather anemic start to the) solar cycle. When all these factors came together, what happened during the following winter?

So, I’m forecasting 89″ of snow for Grand Rapids, 76″ for Kalamazoo, and 98″ for Holland and 100″ for Muskegon.   Above normal snowfall is likely over most all of southern Great Lakes. We have a decent chance of a freezing rain event again this year (the ice storm along I-94 on 2/20/11 was described as the worst in that area in nearly a decade).  We’ll see more than our fair share of challenging driving, as storms bring a lovely combination of fluffier lake-effect and the heavier snow that can come from low pressure centers. Storm systems that come up into Lower Michigan or go just north of us will bring a fun mix of precipitation (snow to freezing rain/sleet to rain and back to snow) I think the overall winter temperature is about 1 degree cooler than average for Grand Rapids and 1-2 degrees below average  for Kalamazoo.  I think this will be a longer winter.  Last year, we didn’t get much snow before Dec. 1, and not much after 2/28.  This year, I think snow starts around mid-November with snow lingering until at least early March.  I think there is an above average chance of a White Christmas (80% for G.R. as opposed to the average 57%) and I think the period from mid-November to early January will, on the whole be colder than average in West Michigan.

This will be a good year to take a southern vacation…after a cool December, temperatures should moderate in Florida during the latter half of winter.  The Pacific Northwest looks cool and wet (could Seattle get snow this winter??) with lots of snow in the Cascades up into southern Alaska and east across the Rockies.  I also think the coming spring will bring an above average number of tornadoes.  La Ninas usually have about 20% more tornadoes than average, and the upper atmosphere is ever so slightly cooler relative to the ground when you look at NASA upper atmosphere temperatures.   The contrast between cold to the north and warm to the south means an above average number of strong to violent tornadoes (which until 2010 had been trending down in the U.S. since the 1970s).  Hopefully, they won’t hit populated cities as much as last year (Joplin, Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Springfield MA, Minneapolis).

I’ll continue to add more as we head into the winter. By the way, here’s the Old Farmer’s Almanac Forecast (I don’t agree with their cool and snowy winter in the south or the dry winter in the Ohio Valley/southern Great Lakes). The 90-day forecast from the Climate Prediction Center looks pretty good to me.   Here’s the National Weather Service Winter Forecast and this also looks pretty good.  Again, note the greater contrast of temperatures (colder than average to the north and warmer than average to the south).  That means some big storm systems this winter and spring.   I’ll link to Bill Marino’s forecast when that comes out at the GRR NWS site.  He’s going 85″ for the winter.  Craig James has a forecast of 90″ – so…either brilliant minds think alike, or we’re all mediocre-ologists.

Don’t be afraid to get that season ski pass or to line up a snowplow service for the season.  Save a couple extra dollars for the heating bills this winter.  Remember to observe odd/even parking if that applies, make sure your pets and animals are comfy and keep checking here at Bill’s Blog and on WOOD-TV for the latest winter weather updates.

388 Responses to “The Winter Forecast – Shovel Ready”

  1. ~Sherry~(Comstock Park) says:

    It sounds good to me Bill!! I will look forward to blogging on your blog in anticipation of winter storms. Thanks for your hard work!

  2. tiffany says:

    going to be a difficult winter then to have to drive to school and work everyday. people better get with the program when it comes to driving safety

  3. Cindy says:

    Looks like I made the right choice to retire this past August. Now I can just sit back and really enjoy that morning cup of coffee on those snowy days.

  4. ryan says:

    so by predicting grand rapids with 13″ more snow then kalamazoo are you saying more lake effect for grand rapids this year, or are you assuming there will be a couple of storms where kalamazoo gets rain and gr snow?

  5. Cindy says:

    Oh, and one more thing. My husband loves, loves, loves the drive to work on those snowy mornings. Looks like we’ll both be happy.

  6. William says:

    Thanks for the prediction…if it’s going to be cold we might as well get some snow to make things interesting. I actually like the challenges of winter driving…if only I could get rid of the other drivers on the roads…they make be very nervous.

    1. Teen says:

      I agree! We live in Michigan, it’s going to be cold…so bring on the snow! And lots of it! I’ve always enjoyed driving in it. And, it really is so beautiful!
      Just to clarilfy…being pretty new to the GR area…are we talking inches or feet here? =)

  7. Nathan A. says:

    Where do you expect the lake effect snow bands to set up this year? And if it is possible, could you tell me how much lake effect snow GRR will get? I am really into this lake effect machine that I just learned in school! Pretty easy, actually.

  8. Dave says:

    Bring it on! Since I was a kid, I’ve always wanted at least one “shut the city down” snowstorm each year (I vividly remember 77 and 78), but haven’t seen many like that. I’d love to have one this year!

  9. Tom Skinner says:

    Your forecast last winter was off by about 13 inches. With all the information you have at your fingertips, why should we listen to your forecast. I think it’s time you retired, and stopped forecasting what you hope will happen, and let someone takeover who will actually forecast what is going to happen, whether it be winter storms or summer storms.

  10. Tom Skinner says:

    Your forecast last winter was off by about 13 inches. With all the information you have at your fingertips, why should we listen to forecast. I think it’s time you retired, and stopped forecasting what you hope will happen, and let someone takeover who will actually forecast what is going to happen, whether it be winter storms or summer storms.

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      There’s an echo in here. Actually, I was off by 14″ for G.R., 6″ for Kalamazoo and 3″ for Holland. I do the best I can.

      1. Irish coffee says:

        Not like it is an EXACT science,Mr Skinner…meso/micro-scale dynamics can create vast differences over short distances- look at LES events which can cause widely disparate amts from one location to the next. Even 14″ snfl is pretty good/reasonable given the length of time involved and the liq. equiv. ratio making it barely over an 1″ off verification(not bad for an entire season)

        1. Common Sense says:

          If it’s not an exact science then why bother? Rain/Precip forecasting by all the local meteorologists over the last 3 months has been significantly off the mark on a 3 day forecast. Understandeably, and in their defense, there are far too many variables to make any intelligent forecasting other than throwing a bunch of factors together, trying to have them mesh, cancel each other, or augment each other; and when all is said and done, it’s just a guesstimate.

          It provides some fun, some hype, but little in the way of dependability. 14 inches off is not even statistically close for an average of 74 inches.

          Problem is – no one can do any better either…

        2. GunLakeDeb says:

          To Common Sense – while I agree that it’s all an educated guesstimate – it’s still good to know a general trend. If I downhill skied regularly – I could see that a season pass would be a good choice this year, for example. In MY case – 4 new tires are on the “to do” list, as well as a new battery for the plow-mounted ATV…..

        3. Brad says:

          There has to be a weather geek out there who has actually analyzed forecast accuracy. Tracking high and low temperature forecasts with results is fairly easy; converting text forecasts for precipitation into a quantitative prediction is more challenging. I suspect somebody has crunched the numbers, somewhere, to determine average accuracy of forecast by # days out- 1 day, 2 day, 3 day, etc.

          It’s hard to state that “Rain/Precip forecasting by all the local meteorologists over the last 3 months has been significantly off the mark on a 3 day forecast” without providing quantitative measures and data analysis. Memory and cognitive biases render a qualitative statement like that almost useless.

        4. Irish coffee says:

          Amen Brad! Besides,one could spend justas much time praising Bill’s Holland snfl forecast (w/in 3″ covering an entire snow season of 4-5 months is not exactly ‘shabby’,imo) IF Bill nailed EVERY city/location EVERY winter season to w/in 1″ differential- we would have to check/draw his blood to insure he was HUMAN!

        5. big Daddy BC says:

          I want a job where everybody makes excuses for my mistakes! Glad he’s not a physician.

        6. Bill Steffen says:

          Stick with your real jobs – sucking up taxpayer money and making a fool out of yourself on a weather blog.

        7. Randy (SW Walker) says:

          undressed like a clown, son!
          Bill is the man.

      2. Dawn says:

        Looks like someone is crawling into the wrong side of the bed

        1. big Daddy BC says:

          He’s just sore that someone’s keeping track of the weather blunders. That’s what happens when you use political instead of scientific sources.

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          http://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/status/130837459805278208/photo/1 global temperatures aloft are crashing! Coldest in 10 years. As Trenberth said: “The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t.” Here’s more: http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100072360/warmists-we-cant-win-the-game-so-lets-change-the-rules/

        3. big Daddy BC says:

          “The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the January – September period (2011) was 0.51°C (0.92°F) above the 20th century average of 14.1°C (57.5°F), making it the 11th warmest such period on record.”

          NOAA disagrees with your assessment that the globe is cooling. LOL
          This stuff is easy to find, Bill. It’s NOAA. You’re man is full of $%!%

          http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/

        4. Bill Steffen says:

          Wow…so it’s been almost as warm as it was 75 years ago! http://articles.latimes.com/2007/aug/15/science/sci-temp15 Sorry if I’m not impressed. Global temperature has dropped two months in a row: http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_current.gif With La Nina, the global average temperature will be down to average or below by late winter. Here’s the drop in global temperature aloft from the NASA data: http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/AMSU-ch6-global-10-29-2011.png

        5. big Daddy BC says:

          This official NOAA map charts anomalous temps worldwide. What would you say the ratio of blue to red is? LOL
          Only a dolt would say the globe is cooling at the end of one of the hottest years EVER! Your political sites are lying. I’m not sure about you, but NOAA seems like a better source for climate info than Rush Limabaugh.

          http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/map-land-sfc-mntp/201109.gif

        6. Bill Steffen says:

          BigDaddy uses the link above in 2 more comments on this thread. Note the map uses as an average, the temperatures from 1961-1990. Why do you think they use that time period? Everyone else used 1971-2000 for ten years, and here in 2011, we’ve moved up to the 30-year average from 1981-2010. The reason they use 1961-90 is that’s the way to make more red dots and fewer blue dots. Most people won’t think about what they use for an average…they’ll just see lots of red dots and not many blue dots. The period from 1961-1990 was the coolest 3-decade period of the past century. If we used 1981-2010 or if we used 1900-2010, there would be more blue dots and fewer red dots. It kind of reminds me of “use Mike’s TRICK to HIDE the decline”. Or it’s like the famous, now disproved “hockey-s(ch)tick graph.

          The interesting news today is that NASA’s satellites show that global atmospheric temperatures are dropping fairly rapidly right now: http://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/status/131496426562789376/photo/1 The average global surface temperature, while still above average, has dropped for two months in a row: http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_current.gif and it will continue to fall, probably back to average or a little below by the end of the Northern Hemisphere winter. The winter pattern should lock in during mid-late November, earlier than last year. When it does, it’s going to be a tough and bumpy ride for much of the country. Storms like the one out east cause a lot of misery, and the storms have started earlier this autumn.

        7. big Daddy BC says:

          http://apps.edf.org/content_images/graph-world-global-temp-datasets.jpg

          Does this one suit your fancy a little better? If it’s good enough for NASA, NOAA, and The Japanese Met Assn, I bet it’s accurate. The only one who doesn’t like this is Exxon. It’s bad for business. LOL Try again, Mr. Magoo.

        8. Bill Steffen says:

          Even your graph with the “adjusted” temperatures shows readings are starting to fall. Here’s the data for the past decade: http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2011/09/hadcrut_trend_since_2001.png?w=631&h=478 Remember what Trenberth said: “The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t.”

          Remember this gem from the U.N. Climate Panel: World Environment Day 2007Tromso/Nairobi, 4 June 2007 – “The futures of hundreds of millions of people across the world will be affected by declines in snow cover, sea ice, glaciers, permafrost and lake ice a new and unique report launched to mark World Environment Day (WED) says.” And…here’s what’s been happening: http://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2011/02/nhland011.png WHOA, we’re getting more snow, Pinocchio! It’s starting already this year. Look at the snow cover ALREADY in the N. Hemisphere: http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

        9. big Daddy BC says:

          Are you sure you’re not an investigative journalist? EXTRA, EXTRA! READ ALL ABOUT IT! SNOW IN AUTUMN! lol Must be global warming’s a sham if it’s snowing in November.

          I’m still trying to figure out why the entire world’s cutting CO2 emissions if global warming is just a farce created by the crooked scientific community and liberals. LOL

        10. Bill Steffen says:

          News is on now…go watch WOOD-TV

        11. Bill Steffen says:

          Who’s actually CUTTING CO2 emissions? Who? What they say and do are two different things. I showed you that CO2 emissions in China are growing rapidly: http://images.wri.org/chart_chinachart2.gif They’re not cutting anything, Pinocchio.

          Look what’s out today. Global temperature took a big dip in October: http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_October_2011.png It’s going to continue down, probably below average by late winter (maybe even by the end of next month! The global temperature at 25,000 feet has just set AN ALL TIME RECORD LOW: http://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/status/131496426562789376/photo/1 The La Nina is strengthening, water’s getting cooler: http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2011/anomw.11.3.2011.gif Brutal (too)early cold in Russia: Low temperatures in Verkoyansk the last 6 nights: -33, -34, -35, -44, -45, -38. Same thing over at Oymyakon…lows the last 2 nights of -42 and -43. Northway, Alaska was -19 this morning.

        12. big Daddy BC says:

          More crack investigative journalism…snow and cold in Russia…LOL. I guess if it’s cold in Siberia, climate change must be a leftist scam. Your cold temps in the upper troposphere are evidence for climate change, Magoo. Greenhouse gases keep the temps warmer at the surface. That’s exactly what we’re seeing. Thanks for the supportive data. That increased energy near the surface has created one of the most active weather years in history. Have a look at what the Weather Channel put together.

          http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/2011-extreme-weather_2011-09-28?page=2

        13. Bill Steffen says:

          Winters are getting colder, not warmer: http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2011/11/ncdc_regions_winter_2001-2011.jpg RECORD cold global temperatures at 25,000 feet and we’ll soon set a record at 14,000 feethttp://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/status/131881006130135040/photo/1: 14,000 feet isn’t the upper troposphere, Pinocchio. It’s less than 3 miles above the surface. Global surface temperatures are falling: http://www.drroyspencer.com/

          Check this out, sea level is falling: http://www.real-science.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/ScreenHunter_47-Nov.-05-20.56.gif “Handcuffs” Hansen said that “sea level will rise at the rate of 55mm/year. How’s that workin’ out?

        14. big Daddy BC says:

          According to the EPA, winters are NOT getting colder. You’re using a political site for science again. The two don’t make good bedfellows. Follow the link.

          “Land areas have tended to warm faster than ocean areas and the winter months have warmed faster than summer months.” -EPA

          http://epa.gov/climatechange/science/recenttc.html

        15. Bill Steffen says:

          Look here: http://www.openyoureyesnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/winters_last_decade_in_US.jpg I’d certainly go with NCDC (the National Climate Data Center) over the EPA. Here’s the winter of 2009-2010: http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_oy2DMM6iwUU/S55Lg0t5mAI/AAAAAAAABe8/kfqN0L66Y9o/s320/ncdc.winter2010.us.temp.gif and the winter of 2010-2011: http://www.flickr.com/photos/60934725@N08/5554360081/ Those two winters are certainly on the cool side. The global temperature at 25,000 feet is now at a RECORD COLD TEMPERATURE, and the temperature at 14,000 feet is nearing a RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE: http://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/status/131881006130135040/photo/1 It’s still not as warm as it was 75 years ago: http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/347541/nasa_admits_that_1934_not_1998_was.html

        16. big Daddy BC says:

          So now the EPA is wrong? LOL

          As far as your temp assessment from the ’30′s. I wonder why NASA, NOAA, and the Japanese Met Assoc. don’t agree?
          http://apps.edf.org/content_images/graph-world-global-temp-datasets.jpg

          Try again, Teabag.

        17. Bill Steffen says:

          Even your graph shows a heckuva decline the past couple years. It’s still not warmer than it was 75 years ago: http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/347541/nasa_admits_that_1934_not_1998_was.html?cat=58

          “There is no scientific basis for saying that warming hasn’t stopped,’ she said. ‘To say that there is detracts from the credibility of the data, which is very unfortunate.’ – Dr. Judith Curry in The Sunday Mail

          A Climategate email: “The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t.” -

        18. big Daddy BC says:

          More out-of-context emails that have been stolen from scientists to further blur the issue. The travesty is that I’ve shown you the truth and you CONTINUE to use them. It shows how truly dishonest you are. :(

          For the viewer, the warming that was being referred to was an accounting for solar radiation, worldwide. The scientist Bill stole that email from was trying to figure out the proportion of energy gains and loss, which would include polar melting, ocean cycling, vaporization, etc. At the time it was written, which is quite a while back now, they hadn’t solved for every variable yet. They have a much better handle on it now. Look at the latest on ice extent from the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

          “Average ice extent for October 2011 was 7.10 million square kilometers (2.74 million square miles), 2.19 million square kilometers (846,000 square miles) below the 1979 to 2000 average. ”

          http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

        19. Bill Steffen says:

          Ha! Can’t spin your way out of this one! Curry’s comment wasn’t taken out of context!

          This was taken TODAY from the Berkeley Earth website (caps. mine):

          “Below is a joint statement by Judith Curry and Richard Muller:

          In recent days, statements we’ve made to the media and on blogs have been characterized as contradictory. They are not.

          We have both said that the global temperature record of the last 13 years shows evidence suggesting that THE WARMING HAS SLOWED. If you look at our new land temperature estimates, you can see a FLATTENING of the rise.”

          From the National Snow and Ice Data Center today from an article entitled “A Rapid Freeze-Up”: Average ice extent for October 2011 was 7.10 million square kilometers (2.74 million square miles). This was 330,000 square kilometers (127,000 square miles) above the average for October 2007.”

        20. big Daddy BC says:

          2007 saw the lowest ice levels in human history. You’re nuts. From the same webpage you quoted, again, out of context.
          “Average ice extent for October 2011 was 7.10 million square kilometers (2.74 million square miles), 2.19 million square kilometers (846,000 square miles) below the 1979 to 2000 average.”

          That’s almost a million square miles less than average and that’s just surface area! Ice volume has been measured to be 66% below average as well. You wingnuts lie like fricken lawyers.

        21. big Daddy BC says:

          Here’s the volume source, just in case you wanted it.

          “Monthly averaged ice volume for September 2011 was 4,200 km3. This value is 66% lower than the mean over this period”

          http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/

        22. Bill Steffen says:

          Your link is from a group that had to correct their data by 23%. Here’s more on that: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/06/28/piomas-arctic-sea-ice-volume-model-corrected-still-appears-suspect/

          If surface ice has INCREASED by more than twice the size of the state of Michigan (“Average ice extent for October 2011 was 7.10 million square kilometers (2.74 million square miles). This was 330,000 square kilometers (127,000 square miles) above the average for October 2007″ – National Snow and Ice Data Center) – and that is easy to measure – wouldn’t you be skeptical if someone told you that while that INCREASE was going on…that the volume of ice went down by 66%. Wouldn’t you be a little skeptical? Especially since the water in the Bering Sea is colder than average? So warmer water would not be coming through the Strait to melt any ice from underneath.

    2. Rebecca says:

      Mr. Skinner,

      Someday when you grow up, go to multiple years of schooling, and become the weather man, MAYBE then you will have earned the right to be so rude.

      Bill, we here in Hudsonville appreciate all of the time and hard work you put into giving us the forecast. Thank you!

    3. Dan says:

      WOW…way to be a total jerk Mr Skinner!!!! Chill Out dude!! Bill Steffen is the MAN!!

    4. John says:

      Leave the guy alone. I’m sure you don’t make mistakes in your job right? Weather predicting has to be one of the hardest jobs out there. Part science,Art and guesswork and that is probably all it will ever be. Bill is pretty good at it!

      1. big Daddy BC says:

        Did you see his summer ’11 forecast? I agree there’s not a lot of science behind it, but ‘cooler than average?’

        http://www.woodtv.com/dpp/news/local/kent_county/Bill-Steffens-Summer-2011-forecast

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          Here was my forecast for summer 2011: http://blogs.woodtv.com/2011/04/28/maysummer-forecast-thoughts/ You haven’t found a summer 2011 forecast that was better.

          First note that my summer forecast for the summer of 2010 was right on – better than everyone else that I saw. There are 3 links to what a wrote about that in the first paragraph of the article.

          I said: “An oddity – I think the warmest day of this summer will be hotter than the warmest day of last summer or 2009.” ….that was correct (97)

          I said: “heat waves (at least 3 consecutive days of 90-degree heat) will be rare across the northern U.S.” We had only ONE bona-fide heat wave in G.R. this past summer and they WERE rare across the northern U.S. We had 14 days reach 90 in G.R. That’s a little above average, but no where near the 21 days in 2007 or the recent record of 37 in 1988.

          I said: “I wouldn’t be betting on a warm winter for 2011-12 at this point.” We’ll see if that turns out to be true. If it is, you heard about it first on my blog.

          I said: “The same combination of factors (warm in the South, cool in Canada, warmer water in the Gulf and a weakening La Nina) that have made this such a deadly month for tornadoes will continue into May” True – 179 fatalities from 9 killer tornadoes in May

          I said: “I still think that the prime area for severe weather will continue to be a little east of average.” That was true

          I said: “Minnesota may have 1/4th as many tornadoes this year as last).” Tornado count for Minnesota: 2010 – 145, 2011 – 30.

          I said: “Nationally, the weather this summer looks cooler than average along the Pacific Coast and from the Pacific NW into the northern Plains. Hot and dry weather will continue to make this a dangerous year for wildfires from New Mexico across Texas and up into Oklahoma.” True

          …not many meteorologists get into that kind of detail…and like I said, more power to you if you can find better overall seasonal forecasts…it’s your choice to come here and read what I post.

        2. big Daddy BC says:

          Again he links his ‘editable’ BLOG forecast. What I linked is the real thing.

          Don’t get me wrong. I realize predicting weather is difficult, but shouldn’t all the bragging hold a little water. Colder than average last summer? Seriously?

        3. Bill Steffen says:

          That’s hilarious…I did not edit the blog thread (look at the time stamp, Pinocchio) and I could have edited the producer written version. As you can see, a lot of what I wrote about was pretty accurate. I forecast near normal temps. when just about everyone else was going cooler than average. And speaking of cooler than average…look at this: http://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/status/130837459805278208/photo/1 Global temperatures at 14,000 feet (left) and 25,000 feet (right) are crashing! They are lower than at any time in the last 10 years. The 25,000 foot reading is about as cold as the satellite has ever measured…and we’re not even to Northern Hemisphere winter yet! Save a few extra dollars for that winter heating bill, bigD – you’ll need it!

        4. big Daddy BC says:

          You can edit the time stamp too, Magoo. LOL I don’t think WOOD would let you edit the official one.

          As far as your Bastardi link goes, it’s autumn. I hope the globe is cooling!! Heck we’ve been above to well-above average since last spring! We had the second biggest drought in history this year! It was the warmest July Detroit has ever had and you’re excited about cooling fall temps? You needed a political site to tell you that?

          LOL

        5. Bill Steffen says:

          Nothing was edited. Truth is…The globe is cooling RELATIVE to average, AND at both 14,000 ft. and 25,000 feet temperatures are colder than they have been against the average than at ANY TIME in the last 10 years. At 25,000 feet it’s approaching an ALL-TIME satellite era record cold. And every day in 2011 has been colder than it’s corresponding day in 2010. This is a SECOND YEAR of La Nina, when you guys predicted a “Super Nino”. We have a cold PDO. -42F in Siberia this morning and it’s only October! That’s more than 20 degrees colder than average. -15 this morning in Selawik, Alaska. Monster snowstorms in the Rockies and in the Northeast. December is coming BigD. Decembrrrrr!

        6. big Daddy BC says:

          Yeah, starting the month of November near 60 sure is a hardship. LOL
          Temps are not cooler, Bill. Look at this official NOAA chart. Your political sites are lying. I trust NOAA over Rush Limbaugh.

          http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/map-land-sfc-mntp/201109.gif

        7. Bill Steffen says:

          High today: 60 Low today: 32 Mean Temperature: 46 AVERAGE MEAN TEMPERATURE FOR NOV. 1: 46 – today was exactly average! LOL!!

          That NOAA chart you linked to is using 1961-1990 for the average! That’s the coolest 30-year period of the century! Everyone else has upgraded to the 1981-2010 average. Someone tell NOAA it’s 2011! I just checked SFO. They were -0.2 for September.

        8. big Daddy BC says:

          And by everyone else, you mean your nut-job friends at Wattsup? An accurate average takes into account as much data as possible. Why not use the 100 year average? What you wingnuts like is the warmest average from the 80′s on. That way the warming trend looks less significant. You must think your viewers are fools.

          If it’s good enough for NOAA, NASA, and the Japanese Meteorological Assn, I bet it’s accurate. Or are they all in cahoots to raise your taxes too? LOL You’re nuts.

          http://apps.edf.org/content_images/graph-world-global-temp-datasets.jpg

        9. Bill Steffen says:

          After a modest half-a-degree rise from 1980 to 2000 – global temperatures have leveled off: http://reasonabledoubtclimate.files.wordpress.com/2011/07/hadcrut2001-2011.png Even your link shows temperatures dropping. I’d love to use temperatures since 1900 at locations with consistent land use (so as to minimize urbanization/land use).

          Look at this graph of the temperatures of 93 weather stations in California: http://www.appinsys.com/globalwarming/GW_Part3_UrbanHeat_files/image006.jpg If you started the graph in 1930, the non-urbanized stations show no warming at all.

        10. big Daddy BC says:

          When? In the last week? LOL Nice political link! Every month has been above average since spring, Mr. Magoo. The south is still experiencing the worst drought in history!

          From our good friends at NOAA,

          “During the July-September period, the United States as a whole experienced much above normal temperatures. The nationally averaged temperature of 73.4 degrees F (23.0 degrees C) ranks as the second warmest July-September on record.” -NOAA

          http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/2011/9

          You conspiracy theorists are ought and ought lying now. How’s it feel to be a corporate tool?

        11. big Daddy BC says:

          “During the July-September period, the United States as a whole experienced much above normal temperatures. The nationally averaged temperature of 73.4 degrees F (23.0 degrees C) ranks as the second warmest July-September on record.” NOAA
          http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/

          And I realize your Exxon-sponsored political site, Watts Up With That, has convinced you that the climate is actually cooling, but the EPA disagrees.

          “Land areas have tended to warm faster than ocean areas and the winter months have warmed faster than summer months.” -Environmental Protection Agency
          http://epa.gov/climatechange/science/recenttc.html

        12. Bill Steffen says:

          My comment above yours stands. Check my links. Look at how temperatures have cooled in the last decade: http://www.openyoureyesnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/winters_last_decade_in_US.jpg

        13. big Daddy BC says:

          Openyoureyesnews.com. hilarious. LOL

          How about using science to support your position? I think the EPA is a little more credible. lol By posting this political garbage, you weaken your position as an authority on anything.

          http://epa.gov/climatechange/science/recenttc.html

        14. Bill Steffen says:

          Here’s last winter’s temperatures: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/national/Statewidetrank/201012-201102.gif?opt=final and here’s the winter of 2009-10: http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/assets_c/2010/03/dec_to_feb_divisional_ranks-thumb-452×371.gif Look at the two maps. Heckuva way to run a global warming disaster! No wonder people are starting to question your hype and hyperbole. You can’t use a TRICK to hide this temperature DECLINE!

        15. big Daddy BC says:

          That’s funny since we just came off of the second warmest spring-summer IN HISTORY! Last winter was great, but it was just a blip and that map is national, not continental or worldwide. Again, you cherry pick data to make a point. You’re very dishonest.

          In keeping with your national theme, how’s this do ya?

          U.S. experiences second warmest summer on record
          http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/20110908_auguststats.html

          Heck of a way to run a global-cooling campaign! LOL

        16. Bill Steffen says:

          Your link is from a group that had to correct their data by 23%. Here’s more on that: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/06/28/piomas-arctic-sea-ice-volume-model-corrected-still-appears-suspect/

          If surface ice has INCREASED by more than twice the size of the state of Michigan (“Average ice extent for October 2011 was 7.10 million square kilometers (2.74 million square miles). This was 330,000 square kilometers (127,000 square miles) above the average for October 2007″ – National Snow and Ice Data Center) – and that is easy to measure – wouldn’t you be skeptical if someone told you that while that INCREASE was going on…that the volume of ice went down by 66%. Wouldn’t you be a little skeptical? Especially since the water in the Bering Sea is colder than average? So warmer water would not be coming through the Strait to melt any ice from underneath.

    5. Yup (Grandville) says:

      Trollololololol. Get over yourself man…. rude, pompous and arrogant. (comment directed at bigDaddy)

    6. Randy (SW Walker) says:

      Then why are you here? Oh– nice alias. You fool no one. D.B.

    7. MrGrumpy :-) says:

      Tom, show a little more respect. Bill is doing a good job. You can’t expect that he can tell you the exact amount of snow for the coming winter. He is a meteorologist, not a fortune teller.

      BTW: I spoke to a friend in the Netherlands and he told me that they predicted a very cold and snowy winter (a lot worse than average) in Western Europe as well. Does this have anything to do with the La Nina? Just curious :-)

    8. Trololol says:

      In other news … George Lessens now going by the name of “Tom Skinner” …

  11. Irish coffee says:

    Craig , “Mr. Conservative” James going for 90″ ?!Retirement goggles(SNOW) on!! LOVE IT!! Mr. Marino showing hufspa as well!!

    1. Irish coffee says:

      edit: If Craig is going 90″, i should amend my prior guesstimate UP to 120″ ;)

    2. Beth says:

      Wow–I’ve always wondered how you spell hufspa—thanks! It was always one of those words that had this weird sound from the back of your throat that you just could never put into letters! ;-)

      1. GunLakeDeb says:

        Actually, it’s “chutzpah” – but DON’T pronounce it like it’s spelled…LOL!

      2. Randy M (Comstock Park) says:

        Actually, the most common spelling is chutzpah, although some dictionaries give alternate spellings without the initial “c” and/or the final “h”.

  12. Barry in Zeeland says:

    I’ve always wondered about the solar cycle, is there much of a weather trend to go along with the sun? This cycle as you mentioned really started slow, but it now seems to be ramping up rapidly. Do big solar storms like the one Monday have much of a effect on the weather? Or do we just not know enough yet?

    1. Irish coffee says:

      Minimums *TrEND COOLER overall in winter for GL…likewise, solar max. temp. composites trend slightly warmer in winter,fwiw

      1. Barry in Zeeland says:

        Since we are now heading into solar max, shouldn’t we then trend warmer this winter then? Solar activity now is 10 times what it was just a couple months ago.

        1. Terry says:

          The current max is slighty more than a normal min. And the planet lags behind by many years. We have had 7 years of low activity and we are paying the price now. Google the little ice age to see what comes next.

        2. Irish coffee says:

          Activity still relatively low compared to peak-max…

        3. slim Jim(NW GR) says:

          In some past years the first few winters coming out of the solar minimum have trended to be colder then the winters during the solar minimum. It the colder winters are due to the solar cycle or not is up for debate.
          SlimJim

        4. Mike M. says:

          We need a series of large volcanic eruptions if we’re ever going to get back to LIA conditions. Oddly enough, it’s been 20 years since Mt. Pinatubo blew up. How long will we stay this lucky? We sure don’t want to see this…

          http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Tambora#1815_eruption

        5. big Daddy BC says:

          I agree. I’d have gone warmer too.

  13. D.C. says:

    Just curious…. have we out here in West Olive had a killing frost yet? We had 27 and 29 degrees last weekend, yet my allergic dog is still scratching and licking! I don’t get it!!! ( But she loves the snow!)

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      Could be food allergies. Both of my labs had them.

    2. scott (west olive) says:

      mine said 26 this morning, nice sheet of frost an truck this morning. It was 30 at 11:00 pm

  14. Jeff (SE Ionia County) says:

    Loving the outlook Bill.. Keep up the great work !

  15. I hope that you’re wrong and we have a nice mild winter, but I know better than that. Now where did I put those snowshoes? There they are, I’m all set!

  16. Nathan A. says:

    Why do you think GRRwill have a foot more than Kalamazoo? Is it because of the mixed precip of Lake Effect?

  17. slim Jim(NW GR) says:

    Seasonal outlooks are nothing more then an educated guess. And are more inclined to point toward trends rather then exact weather events. So saying that a particular city will get a certain amount of snow or rain ect is impossible but saying a area (could) receive more precipitation and a warmer/colder season is more in line. So anyone who thinks that a weather forecaster (or anyone else) can pinpoint what the future has in store is going to be disappointed more often the not. Asking some one “how much snow will GR get this winter?” is like asking what will the price of my stock that I just bought be worth on February 15, 2015? fact is no one knows for sure!
    That being said my guess for the upcoming winter is for near average snow fall and near average temps. BUT look for changes of it being either warmer or colder and dryer or wetter then that! (the same can be said for that stock price LOL)
    SlimJim

  18. Pat P (Harbor Springs) says:

    Bill, lets say there are quite a few people that live in your viewing area that want to drive north, to lets say Harbor Springs, to go skiing. You’d want them to be safe and informed wouldn’t you? So how much snow would you predict for, again just for example, the Harbor Springs area this winter just to give all the downstaters an idea?

    1. Irish coffee says:

      LOL- homer!!;)

    2. Randy (SW Walker) says:

      Harbor Springs- One of my favorite places on earth. Have family up there, spent a portion of every summer up there when I was a kid. Always has a special place in my heart..

  19. michael g (SE GR) says:

    Bill was live at 6, 10, and 11 pm, and 5 am. That has to be a non blizzard record.

    Forecast sounds GREAT!!

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      …and I just finished a radio interview with Gary Allen on WOOD-AM. I’ll also be on 8West today at 11 AM – then a regular day doing my usual 3 PM to 1 AM shift. Saturday I have to be in Portage at the Lowe’s at 10 AM for the Kid’s Fair and Smoke Alarm/Battery give away (LOTS of free stuff there), then (if I’m awake) a stop at a benefit for stray cats…and Saturday evening, I’ll be the auctioneer for a charity auction at Kuyper College. Sunday early is church, then work in the nursery 2nd hour…then FINALLY, I can either take a nap or watch football Sunday PM. Whew!

      1. bobstam says:

        your the man bill!

        I do have one question. Why such not such a huge contrast of snow totals between gr and holland this year? Like last year we got pounded by lake effect and had 20″ more than gr. Whats your take on why we will have closer snow totals?

        1. michael g (SE GR) says:

          In my opinion, that is the hardest part of a winter forecast. If we have two large lake effect events with a northwest wind, Holland is way ahead of GR. Two with a strong west wind, and GR will end the year with almost as much as Holland, two with a SSW wind, and Muskegon is the winner.

          My best guess would be 80″ for Kzoo, 90″ for GR, 105″ for Muskegon, and 110″ for Holland.

      2. scott (west olive) says:

        your going to need a couple hours figured in there on replies. lol

  20. SS (Pwell Area) says:

    Bill…. I know it’s hard to predict, but do you think the snow will be the heavy snowman building kind or the fluffy, blow around kind?!?!

  21. Paul says:

    My wife and I had a great belly-laugh when you dropped the “mediocre-ologists” term in the newscast! Surprised I’ve never heard it before, but too funny! Looking forward to a fun winter.

  22. thundercat says:

    8:35am first snow flakes falling here in Muskegon at the bus stop!!! Kids running around trying to catch them on their tounges!!! So not ready for this cold and snow!!! OV area

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Ok…I thought I saw some snowflakes too, but thought my eyes were playing tricks on me! I’m glad somebody else can confirm it. :)

      1. Matt(Grand Haven) says:

        No tricks, we had some light rain and snow this morning and a couple cracks of thunder this afternoon.

  23. Jeff B.(Gowen) says:

    Not only does it sound like lots of shoveling this winter, but it looks like even more flooding concerns this spring. And with all the snow melt next spring, looks like we may even make up some of the defeict in the lake michigan water level. Sounds when we get to Jan. we’ll be begging for spring

  24. Thanks Bill! Very interesting. So being in Lansing – that I-94 corridor is pretty accurate – that stuff just doesn’t seem to make it this far north, but being slightly south and inland – how much less snow do you think we will get here?

  25. Lynne says:

    My guess is much more snow in Portage (Kalamazoo) area than last year. During this summer I NEVER had to water my lawn, due to all the rain and my complex recorded record low water use due to rain. This has never happened since I have lived her. IF THIS PATTERN CONTINUES, has to be much more snow here. NOT NECESSARILY IN GRAND RAPIDS. I WOULD GUESS SNOWFALL TOTALS HERE IN THE ZOO AT LEAST EQUAL TO OR GREATER THAN GR HMM :-)

  26. Carl says:

    I hate to say it but we are having flurries here outside of Newaygo as I type!

  27. Bernie (at da lakeshore) says:

    I had a trace of freezing rain about 6 this morning.Enough to make my deck slippery.

  28. Rick (Walker) says:

    Please can someone tell me where I can go to see Craig James winter forecast, Bill referenced it here but would would like to see it, unfortunately I can’t find it ~ so need a little help here. Thanx

  29. Randy (SW Walker) says:

    SWEET!!!! Bring it on. More snow the better- Start just before 11/15 and stop on 3/15. The lakes, the kids, the bloggers and I will be ecstatic!!

    1. fixxxer says:

      No we wont!

      1. Randy (SW Walker) says:

        The Bloggers Fix- Not the complainers

  30. Amanda says:

    I read a lot of these comments, but not all, so pardon me if I am repeating a question, but I was wondering how much the Lake Effect machine is going to impact not only GRR, K-zoo and other inland areas, but especially the lakeshore. I don’t recall hearing or seeing anything on that. Just curious….

    1. fixxxer says:

      theres no way bill could know that. it’s a wait and see type of deal.

  31. Dan says:

    Yes, it almost looks like an old fashioned Winter. Remember, the Winters from many years ago? Seemed like we had way more snow and cold! Many times those Winters would last into early to mid April.
    Of course, this is only a very educated guess of what MAY HAPPEN!
    I’d take it, Bill is the best in the business! Look at ALL the information he uses!
    89 inches of Snow for the season sounds like a good dump!!!
    How many of those inches come by way of BIG Storms? You know, Storms that drop in excess of 8-10 inches! I don’t like hearing about the ice. That could be really NASTY!
    Alright, Thanks for the forecast Bill! Note to self: Invest in new snow blower or better yet a respectable plowing service, my kids should suffice!
    Can’t WAIT. I’m still looking at that week just before Thanksgiving for a first snow event!!!
    INDY: Get the stock of Sprites replenished! We are about 23 days (give or take) away from our First SNOW EVENT!!!!!

  32. fixxxer says:

    glad im still off on workers comp and will be exempt from shoveling this winter.

    1. Me :-) says:

      That’s the spirit Fixxxer! :-)

      1. fixxxer says:

        yeah BUT i still HATE winter! ;)

    1. fixxxer says:

      yeah there is some darn cold air out west right now too. i hope the kids have at least a half way decent halloween.

  33. Gary H says:

    Bring it on Bill,Tuesday we will leaving once again for Yuma Az.No snow,no ice,just warm and sometimes cool.But 60′s and 70′s is better anyday than 40 and below.See ya in May.

  34. Gary H says:

    When are going to grow a go te like Craig.

  35. Randy (SW Walker) says:

    Countdown clock is on for the ‘cut/paste patsies’ to spread hyperbole and junk science…….

    1. big Daddy BC says:

      And the countdown to your trademark redneck response now begins.

      1. Randy (SW Walker) says:

        Hey- Douche Bag- Welcome back!

      2. big Daddy BC says:

        …and there it is! LOL

        1. big Daddy BC says:

          zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          Meanwhile, back outside bigDaddy’s bunker, NSIDC shows a 50% increase in the extent of thick multi-year ice since 2008, and all satellites show a sharp drop in sea level over the last two years. http://www.real-science.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/ScreenHunter_02-Nov.-01-07.20.gif

        3. big Daddy BC says:

          Perhaps you’d like to explain this graphic to us? It’s brand new. Bet you won’t.

        4. Bill Steffen says:

          Your graph clearly shows that there is more ice in the Arctic than there was four years ago. So does this graph from the Norway Climate Center: http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi1_ice_ext.png and this one: http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/ice_ext_n.png And…Antarctic ice is ABOVE average: http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_timeseries.png

          And…look at the snow cover already in the N. Hemisphere…in Russia…Alaska…even out by Colorado! http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

        5. big Daddy BC says:

          So you won’t interpret the graph? Didn’t think so. The viewers must wonder why in the face of overwhelming evidence you still deny the truth. Fact is, you’re working for a giant media corporation and furthering a corporate agenda. What a shame you’d sacrifice your integrity for money. :(

        6. Bill Steffen says:

          THE EARTH (not corporate America) is marginalizing your global warming hysteria. Antarctic ice is now GREATER than the historical average: http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_timeseries.png Arctic icecap is greater than 2007 by the size of New Mexico: http://home.comcast.net/~ewerme/wuwt/cryo_compare.jpg Global surface temperatures are falling: http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_October_2011.png Coldest temperatures at 25,000 feet globally since the beginning of the satellite era: http://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/status/131881006130135040/photo/1 And coldest temperature globally at 14,000 feet in the last 10 years. Temperatures across Siberia down to -40 to -45, more than 20 degrees colder than average. -19 in Alaska. LOTS of snow in the higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere already: http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

          And…the Earth has a sense of humor. On “Global Warming Action Day” in New York City – they had the biggest October snowfall in history! LOL

        7. big Daddy BC says:

          Once again, let me interpret a graph you’ve posted but clearly don’t understand. First, the graph is interpreting two dimensional ice, not three. Volume and surface area are two entirely different things. Second, the 2011 figure is right on the average, not above it, Magoo. As far as the arctic goes, 2007 was the absolute lowest in human history. We’ve ticked above it this year, but are still WELL below the average. This is not an area of contention. The poles are melting, period. Have a look and keep in mind this is a scientific site and not a political one like the garbage you continually reference.

          “Monthly averaged ice volume for September 2011 was 4,200 km3. This value is 66% lower than the mean over this period, 75% lower than the maximum in 1979, and 2.0 standard deviations below the 1979-2011 trend.” -Polar Science Center

          http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.png?%3C?php%20echo%20time()%20?

        8. Bill Steffen says:

          I am very skeptical of the ice volume anomaly graph. First, they corrected it by more than 28%: “The long term trend is reduced to about -2.8 103 km3/decade from -3.6 km3/decade in the last version.” I’d be skeptical of any research that was off by more than 28%. It shows the obvious, that it’s impossible to get an accurate picture of the volume of the ice sheet. Where it’s actually measured by Norway, it has NOT shown a significant decrease in volume over the past four years. Second, we know that the icecap has GROWN in surface area by an area the size of New Mexico. The PDO is cold, so you’re not getting warm water coming up through the Bering Strait under the ice. The current runs north to south along the coast in NE Canada. It would be unlikely to the point of impossible for the total amount of ice to decrease by more than the size of New Mexico. Here’s another view…click on the links that are posted here: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/06/28/piomas-arctic-sea-ice-volume-model-corrected-still-appears-suspect/

        9. big Daddy BC says:

          So someone who doesn’t believe in conducting statistical analyses of data sets is skeptical of the way ice volume was quantified? LOL Of course you’re skeptical. You don’t understand the science. You haven’t been in a classroom since the early ’60s. You’ve never conducted a scientific iota of research and have certainly never been published. The fact that ice volume had been decimated pokes another GREAT BIG hole in your conspiracy theory that liberal and the crooked scientific community are in cahoots to raise your taxes.

          BTW, it’s hilarious that you’re skeptical of that, but perfectly okay using political sites for scientific support for your position.

          Here’s a little piece from the EPA on stratospheric cooling.

          “Weather balloons and satellites have also taken temperature readings in the stratosphere – the layer 9-14 miles above the Earth’s surface. This level of the atmosphere has cooled. The cooling is consistent with observed stratospheric ozone depletion since ozone is a greenhouse gas and has a warming effect when present. It’s also likely that increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the troposphere are contributing to cooling in the stratosphere as predicted by radiative theory.”

          If you don’t care about the rising mercury, how about skin cancer?

        10. Bill Steffen says:

          As I have said before. The guy who did your graph of ice volume out in Washington has already had to back off on his data by 28.4%. (“The long term trend is reduced to about -2.8 103 km3/decade from -3.6 km3/decade in the last version.” ) That’s not a little error. It shows he really doesn’t have a clue. The Norway Data doesn’t show that kind of decrease. The National Snow and Ice Data Center says this: “Average ice extent for October 2011 was 7.10 million square kilometers (2.74 million square miles). This was 330,000 square kilometers (127,000 square miles) above the average for October 2007.”

        11. big Daddy BC says:

          First, you did the math wrong. It’s a 22% difference over ten years. And that was for area lost, not total area. Second, as technologies improve, our ability to better quantify will improve. I realize this fits in nicely with your ‘blur the facts’ and ‘don’t trust science’ theme here on the old blog, but the Bill Steffen approach of closing your eyes and letting talk radio hate mongers do the science is so inaccurate, it’s fiction! Fact is, we’ve experienced a 66% reduction in ice volume when compared to the thirty year average, period. They’re not pulling this number out of the air and their certainly not in cahoots with liberal politicians to raise your taxes. Coo-coo

        12. Bill Steffen says:

          There is no 66% decrease in volume. That’s obvious to any fifth-grader looking at the maps/actual data. Antarctic ice is ABOVE the long-term average. It’s not melting from underneath, the volume hasn’t gone down. There’s more ice than there was down there in the mid 1980s. It’s fact, Pinocchio! Arctic surface ice has grown by twice the size of the state of Michigan in the last four years. Do you really believe that it’s shrunk by more than twice the size of the state of Michigan from underneath. Bore holes don’t show that. There’s a La Nina in the Pacific with cold water in the Bering Sea. The icecap isn’t melting from underneath there.

          Here’s a discussion of the PIOMAS graphs. Read through the comments: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/06/28/piomas-arctic-sea-ice-volume-model-corrected-still-appears-suspect/

        13. big Daddy BC says:

          Those, Bill, are bold-faced lies. Every major climatological institute on Earth disagrees your conspiracy theorist friends at Watts Up. Have a look at what real scientist from the National Snow and Ice Data Center just published.

          “Average ice extent for October 2011 was 7.10 million square kilometers (2.74 million square miles), 2.19 million square kilometers (846,000 square miles) below the 1979 to 2000 average.”

          846 THOUSAND SQUARE MILES BELOW THE THIRTY YEAR AVERAGE. LOL Whatever you guys are smokin’ must be good. Here’s a nice graphic to drive the point home.

          http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20111102_Figure3.png

          You’re nuts.

        14. Bill Steffen says:

          Ah, you’re the deceiver, bigD. The bigger Antarctic icecap is BIGGER than the historical average. The Arctic icecap has grown by more than twice the size of the state of Michigan in the last four years: http://home.comcast.net/~ewerme/wuwt/cryo_compare.jpg Check the link and compare the snow cover in Asia to four years ago! Wow! Temperatures in Siberia already at -45 degrees!

          Winters are getting colder in the U.S., not warmer: http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2011/11/ncdc_regions_winter_2001-2011.jpg

          Here’s last winter: http://www.google.com/imgres?q=NCDC+U.S.+temperatures+Dec.+2010-+Feb.+2011&hl=en&sa=G&biw=1680&bih=775&gbv=2&tbm=isch&tbnid=P1pLjLUOqTNp6M:&imgrefurl=http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/winter-recap-2010-2011_2011-10-20&docid=D_3MlUTBMEu24M&imgurl=http://i.imwx.com/web/news/2011/october/Dec-Feb-2010-11-temps-600×405.jpg&w=600&h=405&ei=KQa8Ts-XAYO42wXZmvG8Bw&zoom=1&iact=hc&vpx=365&vpy=162&dur=653&hovh=133&hovw=170&tx=146&ty=82&sig=108268758193652979648&page=1&tbnh=133&tbnw=170&start=0&ndsp=32&ved=1t:429,r:1,s:0

          And the winter of 2009-10: http://i.imwx.com/web/multimedia/images/content/ncdc_dec_feb10_south.GIF

          Reality bites bigD. Remember what Trenberth said: “The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t.” Even Trenberth called it FACT! For bigD…the travesty continues….

        15. big Daddy BC says:

          You’re a friggen lier (again).

          http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/
          Ice volume is down by 66%

          “Average ice extent for October 2011 was 7.10 million square kilometers (2.74 million square miles), 2.19 million square kilometers (846,000 square miles) below the 1979 to 2000 average.”
          http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

          Not that my references are legitimate. Yours are not. They’re links to political activists.

        16. Bill Steffen says:

          Can’t think of anything new to say? I respond again: This is from the National Snow and Ice Data Center on their website today: “Arctic sea ice extent increased rapidly through October…Average ice extent for October 2011 was 7.10 million square kilometers (2.74 million square miles). This was 330,000 square kilometers (127,000 square miles) above the average for October 2007.

          The comparison from 2007 – 2011 here is from the University of Illinois Cryosphere: http://home.comcast.net/~ewerme/wuwt/cryo_compare.jpg (a lot more snow cover in Asia this year).

          Your first link is from a group that had to correct their data by 23%. Here’s more on that: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/06/28/piomas-arctic-sea-ice-volume-model-corrected-still-appears-suspect/

    2. Bill Steffen says:

      1976 graph from
      NCAR: http://icecap.us/images/uploads/cooling.jpg 35 years later and after the “adjustments”, they have magically made the obvious temperature drop disappear: http://icecap.us/images/uploads/ScreenHunter_12-Oct_-25-05_14.jpg even though consistent land temperatures support the first graph.

      1. big Daddy BC says:

        Icecap is a political site. Nice try. Next time link us to a reputable ‘scientific site.’ How about NASA, or AccuWeather, maybe Berkeley. You conspiracy theorists are hilarious. The one thing you can’t answer is why nations like China are ramping up CO2 regulations if its an American leftists conspiracy to raise your taxes. Have a look at what the statisticians at Berkeley have found.

        http://berkeleyearth.org/

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          Any site that agrees with you is a “science site” and any site that disagrees with you is a “political site”. How easy. It’s you’re best shot, since you can’t argue with the data and facts at the “political” sites. Icecap is run by Joe D’Aleo, who’s a couple credits shy of a Ph.D. and has been one of the best long-range forecasters in the world for the past 3 decades. China ISN’T reducing CO2 emissions: http://www.populationmedia.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/blog1024.png And you’re guy in Berkeley had a bad weekend: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/10/29/uh-oh-it-was-the-best-of-times-it-was-the-worst-of-times/#more-50286

        2. big Daddy BC says:

          “Adhering to the Copenhagen Accord of keeping the global temperature rise under 2 degrees Celsius, China has formulated the National Action Plan on Climate Change that focuses on green and low carbon development and mitigating carbon emission.

          In the country’s 12th Five-year Plan, China targets decreases of 15 percent in energy intensity decrease and 17 percent in CO2 intensity. The new and renewable energy share in primary energy consumption will be 15 percent by 2020.”

          Yes, China’s producing more than us now, but that’s because the republicans set up tax structures to tempt companies over seas. Heck, even Amway’s biggest facility is in China now. All that manufacturing creates CO2. The point was that they have a comprehensive plan to reduce pollution. If this is a liberal scheme to raise your taxes, why would China care. How about the rest of the world?

          “A reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions is not only the goal of environmentalists but also of pretty much every government in the world. Currently 192 countries have adopted the Kyoto protocol. ”

          http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2011/jan/31/world-carbon-dioxide-emissions-country-data-co2

          Can’t answer that? I’ve only asked fifteen times and counting. Your conspiracy theory holds NO water, weatherman.

        3. Bill Steffen says:

          China’s decrease isn’t a decrease at all…it’s a phony figure that is lower than the astronomical increase they are expecting. For instance: If they expect CO2 emissions to rise 12% a year in China, they (and you) trumpet a 25% cut, because they’re phony target is a 9% increase. As you can see, China’s not cutting anything: http://www.populationmedia.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/blog1024.png Reid and Pelosi do the same thing. If let’s say the funding for the bigDaddy fatcat pension fund is going up at 10% a year and someone who can actually understand mathematics points out that is unsustainable and should be cut to 5% a year…that is spun as a 50% CUT. The leftist press goes along with the spin and we get closer and closer to insolvency as the private sector (many of who don’t make in salary what bigDaddy’s pension is going to be) continues to face higher taxes, fees and regulations. BigDaddy has no compassion except for himself and his cronies. He only uses issues like “global warming” to legally steal more of your money o put in his back pocket.

        4. big Daddy BC says:

          “A reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions is not only the goal of environmentalists but also of pretty much every government in the world. Currently 192 countries have adopted the Kyoto protocol. ”

          http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2011/jan/31/world-carbon-dioxide-emissions-country-data-co2

          Can’t answer that? I’ve only asked sixteen times and counting. Your conspiracy theory holds NO water, weatherman.

        5. Bill Steffen says:

          The U.S. Senate rejected Kyoto 95-0! That’s 95-0: http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=105&session=1&vote=00205 The unions were even against it as written. It was totally one-sided against the U.S. The developing world (which was just about every other country) did nothing, Germany did nothing. It was a means to transfer money (kind of like what’s going on today…make your utility bills skyrocket and give the money to political cronies). Look at what’s going on in Australia: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/17/us-australia-politics-idUSTRE76G2ZQ20110717 The Kyoto agreement as written today is still one-sided with much of the world either not doing anything or making phony promises that they can’t keep…and it won’t budge global temperature by 1/10th of a degree. It’s a phony ploy to shuffle money from the government to the Al Gore-opportunists of the world.

        6. big Daddy BC says:

          So now it’s a WORLD-wide conspiracy planned by liberals and the dishonest scientific community to steal money away from Exxon. LOL Poor Exxon. Do you read what you write? You sound like a total nut.

        7. Bill Steffen says:

          There are greedy, selfish people like you scattered all over the world. They like to do stuff like “use Mike’s TRICK to HIDE THE DECLINE”. They like to make scary claims in order to get governments to give them other people’s money.

          UN Global Warming Committee in 1989: “Entire nations could be wiped off the face of the earth by rising sea levels if global warming is not reversed by the year 2000.” LOL!!

          You’re doing the same thing today…hype and hyperbole…all to cause utility rates to skyrocket and more money to be squeezed out of the middle class to put in your pension.

        8. big Daddy BC says:

          But here’s the problem. You won’t acknowledge ANY of the hardships that we’ve endured as a result of climate change. You deny everything or explain it away. You deny droughts, hurricanes, extreme temps. The fricken horn of Africa has been baked alive in the last decade. 50,0000 people died in Russia last year from one drought! The worst drought in the history of the southern US is still going on RIGHT NOW. Hurricanes, tornadoes, extremes, and the like are marginalized by the extreme right. And you keep on even in this blog, claiming the world is suddenly cooling (LOL), that the gazillion wildfires that have burned millions of acres in the south were not the result weather extremes, but of cigarette smokers. The predictions you speak of were based on a, as of then, new science. Some of those may have been out there, but many were right on. Read this:

          http://earthsky.org/earth/a-look-back-at-summer-2011s-weather-extremes-and-disasters

        9. Bill Steffen says:

          There has been no increase in hurricanes because of the additional one part in ten thousand of CO2 in the air. Here’s global accumulated global tropical cyclone energy: http://policlimate.com/tropical/global_running_pdi.png We’re closer to a record low than average. The drought of 1934: http://www.siskiyous.edu/shasta/env/drought/1934in.gif was bigger and deadlier than the drought of 2011: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/palmer/2011/10-29-2011.gif The wildfires in Texas were almost all set by people…no people…no fires. The Russian Heatwave was “natural causes” as stated in an extensive peer-reviewed paper from CIRES and also from NOAA in their paper which stated: Draft Report by NOAA CSI:

          “The extreme surface warmth over western Russia during July and early August is mostly a product of the strong and persistent blocking high. The indications are that the current blocking event is intrinsic to the natural variability of summer climate in this region…”

          1934 was the hottest year ever: http://articles.latimes.com/2007/aug/15/science/sci-temp15 (so we haven’t been as warm as we were 75 YEARS AGO!)

          And the Horn of Africa bakes every year: “Hot conditions prevail year-round in Somalia along with periodic monsoon winds and very irregular rainfall and frequent droughts. Mean daily maximum temperatures range from 30 to 40 °C (86 to 104 °F).” There are places there with an AVERAGE high temperature of 104 – and frequent droughts.

          Finally, the number of strong to violent tornadoes decreased from the mid 1970s to 2009: http://www.darkpolitricks.com/wp-content/plugins/wp-o-matic/cache/7fcf6_httpdailycaller.comwp-contentuploads2114chart12.jpg

        10. big Daddy BC says:

          Like I said, the corporate MO is to marginalize climatic events that substantiate climate CHANGE. WOOD TV is owned by a huge media corporation that supports your efforts to spread misinformation and political rhetoric.
          Thanks for proving that, but try as you might you can’t deny this, “During the July-September period, the United States as a whole experienced much above normal temperatures. The nationally averaged temperature of 73.4 degrees F (23.0 degrees C) ranks as the second warmest July-September on record.” -NOAA
          http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/2011/9

          And how about the weather extremes we saw this year? Read this.
          http://earthsky.org/earth/a-look-back-at-summer-2011s-weather-extremes-and-disasters

        11. Bill Steffen says:

          THE EARTH (not corporate America) is marginalizing your global warming hysteria. Antarctic ice is now GREATER than the historical average: http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_timeseries.png Arctic icecap is greater than 2007 by the size of New Mexico: http://home.comcast.net/~ewerme/wuwt/cryo_compare.jpg Global surface temperatures are falling: http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_October_2011.png Coldest temperatures at 25,000 feet globally since the beginning of the satellite era: http://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/status/131881006130135040/photo/1 And coldest temperature globally at 14,000 feet in the last 10 years. Temperatures across Siberia down to -40 to -45, more than 20 degrees colder than average. -19 in Alaska. LOTS of snow in the higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere already: http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

          And…the Earth has a sense of humor. On “Global Warming Action Day” in New York City – they had the biggest October snowfall in history! LOL

        12. big Daddy BC says:

          Let me interpret a graph you’ve posted but clearly don’t understand. First, the graph is interpreting two dimensional ice, not three. Volume and surface area are two entirely different things. Second, the 2011 figure is right on the average, not above it, Magoo. As far as the arctic goes, 2007 was the absolute lowest in human history. We’ve ticked above it this year, but are still WELL below the average. This is not an area of contention. The poles are melting, period. Have a look and keep in mind this is a scientific site and not a political one like the garbage you continually reference.

          “Monthly averaged ice volume for September 2011 was 4,200 km3. This value is 66% lower than the mean over this period, 75% lower than the maximum in 1979, and 2.0 standard deviations below the 1979-2011 trend.” -Polar Science Center

          http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.png?%3C?php%20echo%20time()%20?

        13. Bill Steffen says:

          I am very skeptical of the ice volume anomaly graph. First, they corrected it by more than 28%: “The long term trend is reduced to about -2.8 103 km3/decade from -3.6 km3/decade in the last version.” I’d be skeptical of any research that was off by more than 28%. It shows the obvious, that it’s impossible to get an accurate picture of the volume of the ice sheet. Where it’s actually measured by Norway, it has NOT shown a significant decrease in volume over the past four years. Second, we know that the icecap has GROWN in surface area by an area the size of New Mexico. The PDO is cold, so you’re not getting warm water coming up through the Bering Strait under the ice. The current runs north to south along the coast in NE Canada. It would be unlikely to the point of impossible for the total volume of ice to decrease by more than the size of New Mexico that it has increased on the surface. Here’s another view…click on the links that are posted here: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/06/28/piomas-arctic-sea-ice-volume-model-corrected-still-appears-suspect/

        14. big Daddy BC says:

          What a surprise, you don’t trust the science, but you do trust your Exxon-backed political sources. lol

          The ice sheet is not static and as methods of measurement improve, adjustments will be made. That’s the nature of the beast, like it or not. But the trend, as seen clearly from this data set puts ice volume 66% below the ’79-2011 average. Regardless of how fast the ocean refreezes at the surface, a warming climate has already taken its toll. None of this is in dispute. Your problem now is figuring out how to incorporate the shrinking ice into your conspiracy theory that scientists and liberals are in cahoots to raise your taxes. LOL Good luck.

          http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.png?%3C?php%20echo%20time()%20?

        15. Bill Steffen says:

          The National Snow and Ice Data Center has an article on their website right now entitled “A Rapid Freeze-Up”. They say: Average ice extent for October 2011 was 7.10 million square kilometers (2.74 million square miles). This was 330,000 square kilometers (127,000 square miles) above the average for October 2007. Antarctic ice is ABOVE AVERAGE in areal extent right now.

        16. big Daddy BC says:

          Where’s the link? And that info doesn’t jive with this graphic just released by the NSIDC.
          http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20111102_Figure3.png
          Fact are facts.

        17. Bill Steffen says:

          Go to the homepage of the National Snow and Ice Data Center: http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ You’ll read this: “Average ice extent for October 2011 was 7.10 million square kilometers (2.74 million square miles). This was 330,000 square kilometers (127,000 square miles) above the average for October 2007″. It’s under the article entitled “A Rapid Freeze-Up”.

        18. big Daddy BC says:

          I read it. I posted it…several times. What’s the point? We’re at 846 thousand square miles below the thirty year average and you’re celebrating??!!! Have you lost your mind? This summer was the second warmest in HISTORY. Does the fact that it’s not first mean we’re cooling off?

          You sound crazier and crazier with each post.

        19. Bill Steffen says:

          Again…there’s a LOT more ice in the Arctic than there was four years ago: http://home.comcast.net/~ewerme/wuwt/cryo_compare.jpg AND check that link to see the difference in snow cover across Asia! Wow! The Antarctic icecap is BIGGER than the long-term average.

          Winters are getting colder in the U.S., not warmer: http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2011/11/ncdc_regions_winter_2001-2011.jpg

          Here’s last winter: http://www.google.com/imgres?q=NCDC+U.S.+temperatures+Dec.+2010-+Feb.+2011&hl=en&sa=G&biw=1680&bih=775&gbv=2&tbm=isch&tbnid=P1pLjLUOqTNp6M:&imgrefurl=http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/winter-recap-2010-2011_2011-10-20&docid=D_3MlUTBMEu24M&imgurl=http://i.imwx.com/web/news/2011/october/Dec-Feb-2010-11-temps-600×405.jpg&w=600&h=405&ei=KQa8Ts-XAYO42wXZmvG8Bw&zoom=1&iact=hc&vpx=365&vpy=162&dur=653&hovh=133&hovw=170&tx=146&ty=82&sig=108268758193652979648&page=1&tbnh=133&tbnw=170&start=0&ndsp=32&ved=1t:429,r:1,s:0

          And the winter of 2009-10: http://i.imwx.com/web/multimedia/images/content/ncdc_dec_feb10_south.GIF

          Reality bites bigD. Remember what Trenberth said: “The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t.” Even Trenberth called it FACT! For bigD…the travesty continues….

        20. big Daddy BC says:

          You’re a friggen lier (again #3).

          http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/
          Ice volume is down by 66%

          “Average ice extent for October 2011 was 7.10 million square kilometers (2.74 million square miles), 2.19 million square kilometers (846,000 square miles) below the 1979 to 2000 average.”
          http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

          Not that my references are legitimate. Yours are not. They’re links to political activists.

        21. Bill Steffen says:

          You just repeated the same comment from earlier in the thread. You are really out of gas when it comes to ideas! OK…again…This is from the National Snow and Ice Data Center on their website today: “Arctic sea ice extent increased rapidly through October…Average ice extent for October 2011 was 7.10 million square kilometers (2.74 million square miles). This was 330,000 square kilometers (127,000 square miles) above the average for October 2007.

          The comparison from 2007 – 2011 here is from the University of Illinois Cryosphere: http://home.comcast.net/~ewerme/wuwt/cryo_compare.jpg (a lot more snow cover in Asia this year).

          Your first link is from a group that had to correct their data by 23%. Here’s more on that: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/06/28/piomas-arctic-sea-ice-volume-model-corrected-still-appears-suspect/

  36. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

    This sounds just like last year’s prediction to me. Anyone else notice?

    2010 prediction: 88″ for GR, 77″ for KZoo, and 100″ for Muskegon.
    2011 prediction: 89″ for GR, 76″ for KZoo, and 100″ for Muskegon.

    2010: This will be a good year to take a southern vacation
    2011: This will be a good year to take a southern vacation

    2010: We’ll see more than our fair share of challenging driving, as storms bring a lovely combination of fluffier lake-effect and the heavier snow that can come from low pressure centers.

    2011: We’ll see more than our fair share of challenging driving, as storms bring a lovely combination of fluffier lake-effect and the heavier snow that can come from low pressure centers.

    2010: The Pacific Northwest looks cool and wet (could Seattle get a snowstorm this winter??) with lots of snow in the Cascades up into southern Alaska.

    2011: The Pacific Northwest looks cool and wet (could Seattle get snow this winter??) with lots of snow in the Cascades up into southern Alaska and east across the Rockies.

    1. big Daddy BC says:

      lol

    2. Irish coffee says:

      Hey at least he’s consistent(in riding La Nina:)

    3. scott (west olive) says:

      You didn’t happen to notice the atmosphere is set up like last year? It’s winter and it snows.

    4. Bill Steffen says:

      Right…all those still apply…it’s La Nina part 2.

  37. big Daddy BC says:

    Your forecast was the same as mine, just a tad cooler!! I gave mine a month ago. LOL Way to go, Bill. Maybe we should start calling you Big Daddy Bill Steffen (BS).
    And your clever CO2-denier insert was right on schedule. Blaming ocean cycling for climate change is like blaming the egg for the chicken. The phenomena are not unrelated. Have a look at the most recent work done on the subject.

    http://berkeleyearth.org/findings.php

    Berkeley has a team of statisticians that have meticulously gone through billions of bites of data to clean up the record. They’re conclusion: Global warming is real. Surprise!

    1. big Daddy BC says:

      their

      1. Mike M. says:

        you’re

        1. Mike M. says:

          You’re an idiot.

        2. big Daddy BC says:

          No funny pics, Fudgetard?

        3. Mike M. says:

          I think he wants us to show a pic of his mama.

        4. big Daddy BC says:

          A link to radioactive liberty? Is that your knew scientific source. Hope you didn’t use them to do your winter forecast. lol The truth about arctic ice can be found here at a ‘scientific’ site… National Snow and Ice Data Center. Viewers must wonder why you’re misrepresenting the numbers.

          http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

        5. Bill Steffen says:

          Here’s the answer, from the Univ. of Illinois Cryosphere Center: http://home.comcast.net/~ewerme/wuwt/cryo_compare.jpg Ice has increased significantly from four years ago. Antarctic ice is now ABOVE the long-term average. We’ve got snow and ice on the East Coast and early snows in the Rockies.

        6. big Daddy BC says:

          Nice pic, Slick, but hardly quantitative. Where’s the data?

          Oh, here it is.

          “Ice extent stayed above 2007 for the remainder of the melt season, reaching its minimum of 4.33 million square kilometers (1.67 million square miles) on September 9, 2011.”

          http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

          Your political sites are not helping you come up with the data you need. Maybe the fact that the polar oceans are refreezing surprises you. You seem confused.

        7. Bill Steffen says:

          Uh…what you wrote substantiates this graph: http://home.comcast.net/~ewerme/wuwt/cryo_compare.jpg There’s more ice in the Arctic than four years ago. Here’s a second opinion: http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi1_ice_ext.png Antarctic ice extent is ABOVE AVERAGE. http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_timeseries.png Global average temperature at 14,000 feet and at 25,000 feet coldest than on any date in the last 10 years! http://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/status/130253156176244737/photo/1 Selawik, Alaska was -15 this morning. Resolute, Canada hasn’t been above +10 since 10/18. Alert, Canada has had an AVERAGE October temperature of 3 BELOW ZERO (average of the high and low temperatures for 31 days). In Siberia, Oymyakon has had low temperatures of -37 and -42 the past two mornings…average low is -19. Verkoyansk has had consecutive low temperatures of -33, -34 and -35 compared to an average low of -19. Big snowstorms in the Rockies and Northeast. As Trenberth said: “The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t.” In New England, they’re shoveling up to TWO FEET of that “travesty”!!

        8. big Daddy BC says:

          Of course it does! I found the data you were missing. My point is that you don’t know where to find it, because you spend all your time on political sites hunting for ideological solutions to real-world problems. I understand that four years ago the ice caps were at the lowest volume in human history, but just because they’re up a bit doesn’t mean climate change isn’t real. Get some perspective, weatherman! Read the NSIC update. The picture isn’t rosy, Magoo.

        9. Bill Steffen says:

          Sure it is…PDO turns cold…ice starts increasing. Your own site says that ice has INCREASED by 120,000 square miles in the last four years. That’s about the size of New Mexico (which BTW is our 5th biggest state, and governed by Susana Martinez, yet another Hispanic Republican). And the Antarctic icecap is bigger than average.

        10. big Daddy BC says:

          That’s not four years of growth, Magoo. That’s the refreeze this year. LOL You sure have a talent for twisting the facts. And let’s not forget that’s compared to the lowest ice volume in human history.

        11. Bill Steffen says:

          YES IT IS FOUR YEARS OF GROWTH. WE NOW HAVE 120,000 square miles MORE ICE THAN FOUR YEARS AGO. LOOK: http://home.comcast.net/~ewerme/wuwt/cryo_compare.jpg There’s more ice in the Arctic than four years ago. Here’s a second opinion: http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi1_ice_ext.png It doesn’t matter if it grew gradually or overnight, Pinocchio. The ARCTIC ICECAP IS 120,000 square miles BIGGER THAN IT WAS FOUR YEARS AGO. AND THE ANTARCTIC ICECAP IS ABOVE AVERAGE: http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_timeseries.png

          Look, when you’ve taken a couple of sacks and it’s 4th and 28, punt the ball, Pinocchio. I suggest you shift gears and start whining about the Emergency Managers again.

        12. big Daddy BC says:

          So let me get this straight. You think because the north pole froze a little faster this year than four years ago when ice levels were at the lowest they’ve been in recorded history, that you’ve got definitive, undeniable proof that climate change was created by liberals and crooked scientists to raise your taxes? LOLOLOLOL

          Do you realize how nuts you sound?

          Here’s a brand new graph from the NSIDC that compares ice from today, 2007, and the average. Could you interpret it for the viewer please? Bet you won’t. LOL
          http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png

        13. Bill Steffen says:

          You’re link shows that there is more ice now than four years ago. Here’s the Norway chart: http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi1_ice_ext.png We’re even with 2009 and 2010 and well ahead of 2007. The icecap is bigger today than four years ago by an area the size of New Mexico! That’s a lot of new ice.

        14. big Daddy BC says:

          I knew you’d refuse to interpret the graph. The viewers must wonder why, if your conspiracy theory holds any water, you’d be unable to explain why arctic ice is so far below the historical average, why we just experienced the warmest June-September in history, and why the southern US is still experiencing the absolute WORST drought in history. …Especially if, as you’ve claimed, we’re actually in a period of global cooling. LOL

          Do you realize how nuts you sound?

        15. Bill Steffen says:

          Sure, I’ll explain…we’ve had a warm PDO AND a warm AMO. These are decadal and multi-decadal oscillations. Both have been warm, so there has been less ice and the Earth has warmed a little (a whole degree) since the late 70s. The PDO has turned cool, the AMO is still warm, so the icecap should grow a little, and it has, by an area the size of New Mexico in the last four years. The cold PDO will mean more frequent than usual La Ninas and less frequent El Ninos. You guys forecast that this year would go back to El Nino and you were clearly wrong. Antarctic ice is ABOVE the historical average.

          The warmest year was 1934: http://articles.latimes.com/2007/aug/15/science/sci-temp15 – so we’re not as warm as we were 75 years ago! Global temperature has dropped 3 months in a row! http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_October_2011.png

          You mentioned the Texas drought: Much of Texas had significant rain in October. Here’s a sample with the city/rainfall/% of Oct. average (does not include 10/31): Abilene 4.09″ (137%), Arlington 4.86″ (108%), Childress 3.23″ (144%), Dalhart 1.52″ (103%), Fort Worth 4.90″ (117%), Houston 5.43″ (91%), Junction 3.88″ (139%), Lubbock 2.31″ (131%), Mineral Wells 5.15″ (138%), San Angelo 2.91″ (107%), San Antonio 3.28″ (80%), Waco 6.20″ (159%), Wichita Falls 5.02″ (161%).

        16. big Daddy BC says:

          This graphic from the Polar Science Center describes volume and not surface area.

          “Monthly averaged ice volume for September 2011 was 4,200 km3. This value is 66% lower than the mean over this period, 75% lower than the maximum in 1979, and 2.0 standard deviations below the 1979-2011 trend.” -Polar Science Center

          http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.png?%3C?php%20echo%20time()%20?

          It’s convenient to blame warming on ocean cycling, but you forget that the majority of the planet is covered in water and that water is absorbing energy just like land. What would possibly make you think that warming wouldn’t affect cycling? The oceans are more affected by an increase in greenhouse gases than the land. Nice, though, that you admit to a one degree increase in thirty years. That’s a huge step for you.

        17. Bill Steffen says:

          For one…they had to correct the graph: “The long term trend is reduced to about -2.8 103 km3/decade from -3.6 km3/decade in the last version.” Second, a corresponding paper from the Univ. of Washington states: “it states that “The winter AO-index explains as much as 64% of the variance in summer sea-ice extent in the Eurasian sector, but the winter and summer AO-indices combined explain less than 20% of the variance along the Alaskan coast, where the age of sea-ice explains over 50% of the year-to year variability. If this interpretation is correct, low summer sea-ice extents are likely to persist for at least a few years. However, it is conceivable that, given an extended interval of low-index AO conditions, ice thickness and summertime sea-ice extent could gradually return to the levels characteristic of the 1980′s.”
          This comment is relevant: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/06/28/piomas-arctic-sea-ice-volume-model-corrected-still-appears-suspect/#comment-700815

          Third, we know that surface ice in the Arctic is growing: http://home.comcast.net/~ewerme/wuwt/cryo_compare.jpg The icecap in September was bigger than 4 years ago by an area the size of New Mexico. Antarctic ice cover is ABOVE average. With global surface temperatures dropping, ocean temperatures dropping (La Nina) and tropospheric temperatures dropping…plus the low sunspot cycle and volcanic activity…I wouldn’t be betting on a warmer Earth in 2012.

        18. big Daddy BC says:

          Again, big surprise that you don’t trust the science, but you do trust your Exxon-supported political sites. Ice volume is not increasing, it’s 66% below average, regardless of how fast the refreeze takes place at the surface…volume as a opposed to surface area.
          As far as all the jibber-jabber about coast lines and such, I’m sure the viewer is adequately confused. Watts is a corporate puppet. His site is political and therefore any information you copy and paste from it stinks, period.

          My gut tells me that scientists, not politicians, should be telling us about climate.

          This from the Polar Ice Center shows a one year rise and decline of ice volume with overlays. 2011 is the lowest, by far!

          http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2_CY.png?%3C?php%20echo%20time()?

        19. Bill Steffen says:

          Your graph is wrong. We’ve been through this before. This guy in Washington has had to correct his data by 28.4% already (“The long term trend is reduced to about -2.8 103 km3/decade from -3.6 km3/decade in the last version.” ) and I don’t trust what he has now. The Norway data doesn’t show any 66% decrease. The National Snow and Ice Data Center has this on their website right now: “Average ice extent for October 2011 was 7.10 million square kilometers. This was 330,000 square kilometers (127,000 square miles) above the average for October 2007.”

          Anthony Watts website (check it out for yourself here: http://wattsupwiththat.com/) has been endorsed by at least two past Presidents of the American Assn. of State Climatologists.

        20. big Daddy BC says:

          You mean there are two other right-wing meteorologists out there spewing misinformation? LOL What a surprise. Broadcast meteorologists (weathermen) aren’t scientists. You don’t do research. You don’t publish. You don’t even continue your education. Heck, the last class you took was when Kennedy was president. LOL

          As far as your professional criticism of the work done on ice volume goes, lol, if it’s good enough for NASA, NOAA, and Berkeley, it’s good enough for me.

          BTW, you did the math wrong.

          Here’s what the National Snow and Ice Center just published.

          http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20111102_Figure3.png

        21. Bill Steffen says:

          Broadcast meteorologists are scientists. You are not. I do a lot of research (a lot of it on climate) and I publish a blog. I attended a 4 1/2 hour seminar at the National Weather Service this past Saturday. Speaking of John Kennedy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aEdXrfIMdiU This is from the homepage of the National Snow and Ice Data Center: “Average ice extent for October 2011 was 7.10 million square kilometers (2.74 million square miles). This was 330,000 square kilometers (127,000 square miles) above the average for October 2007.”

        22. big Daddy BC says:

          I seriously want to put that on a billboard. That might be the funniest thing I’ve seen in a while. And keep in mind, I just watched Perry gaff for two full minutes on which agencies he’s going to close down as president. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FcPjmiGwMTc
          Holy Cow, that dude’s dumb.

          But, still the fact that you consider yourself a scientist because you ‘publish’ a blog and conduct ‘research’ by visiting political sites is downright embarrassing. Heck, I’m embarrassed for you. If that were true, I’d have as little faith in science as you do. But this really speaks volumes about how little you understand about how research and publication works.
          And what was that ‘speaking of JFK’ reference stuffed in the middle? Are you drunk? No one was speaking of JFK. LOL Time to hang it up.

        23. Bill Steffen says:

          Obama’s done many “Perrys”: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p9hZpJp7U3Y

          The science says that you alarmists are wrong. Winters are getting colder:

          Two winters ago: http://i.imwx.com/web/multimedia/images/content/ncdc_dec_feb10_south.GIF

          Last winter: http://www.google.com/imgres?q=NCDC+U.S.+temperatures+Dec.+2010-+Feb.+2011&hl=en&sa=G&biw=1680&bih=775&gbv=2&tbm=isch&tbnid=P1pLjLUOqTNp6M:&imgrefurl=http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/winter-recap-2010-2011_2011-10-20&docid=D_3MlUTBMEu24M&imgurl=http://i.imwx.com/web/news/2011/october/Dec-Feb-2010-11-temps-600×405.jpg&w=600&h=405&ei=KQa8Ts-XAYO42wXZmvG8Bw&zoom=1

          And winters over the past decade: http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2011/11/ncdc_regions_winter_2001-2011.jpg

          I know you guys are frustrated. Remember what Trenberth said: “The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t.”

          It’s a fact, even Trenberth admits it’s a fact! So all you’re left with is insults and anger.

        24. big Daddy BC says:

          What frustrates us is people like you who work for billion dollar media corporations and are paid to spread lies and pit middle class people against one another. Your company now pays no taxes in Michigan, partly due to your efforts here on the blog. This is a right-wing pulpit. WOOD TV is the most conservative station in West Michigan, and you are it’s own personal Rush Limbaugh.

          Here’s what NOAA says about temps.
          http://apps.edf.org/content_images/graph-world-global-temp-datasets.jpg

        25. Bill Steffen says:

          You are so clueless. OK blog readers. Let’s do some fact checking. First, you can find out the name of our parent company at our website. It’s LIN-TV. Do a google search and look us up. We have an operating income of 247 million, not a billion. You’d have more credibility, BigD, if you took a few minutes and actually made an attempt to get a few things right here. Our company is headquartered in Rhode Island, so that’s where a lot of our tax is paid. Michigan wins because the “Big 3″ auto makers are headquartered in Michigan. However, we do pay a lot of tax in Michigan. Take a minute and think about what taxes we would have to pay. It’s not that difficult (gas tax, sales tax, property tax etc.).

          Here’s global temperature over the past 10 years: https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-FikCUVS5D60/TX-Y4i02zFI/AAAAAAAAJ0c/8yAJqpnbAXk/trend-8.png Remember, you’re guy, the alarmist Trenberth said: “The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t.” More on that here: http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100072360/warmists-we-cant-win-the-game-so-lets-change-the-rules/

    2. Dan says:

      It was an 1 hour and a half, Randy. Can you believe it?
      Also, where does that smart guy get it? Now, Big Daddy is claiming Bill and him are the same person? Give me a break!
      Bill: You get all the credit! You are the one who pours through pages and pages of data. Your careful analysis is appreciated, Bill! Big Daddy is only jealous of your success! Big Daddy doesn’t have the brain power or work ethic to even begin to do this. So, off he goes on this path. Big Daddy attempts to steal your forecast, claim he is you, then he thinks you can’t interpret data.
      Are we surprised by his M.O.? NOT!!

      1. big Daddy BC says:

        I’m on the record for my prediction a month out. I gave rationale for it and stand behind it. I’m laughing because he used the same resources I did and came to almost the same conclusion. Heck, I guess I missed my calling. lol Dan, you’re fricken’ clueless. How do you know what records Bill searches through? His forecast is almost identical to last year’s. Did you see Travis’ post above? BTW, you’re first post was at 7:24, since you and your ‘partner,’ Randy are keeping track. lol Get a life.

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          You’re calling for a warm winter. I’m near to below average temps. I’ve dropped hints about the winter forecast for months and you’ve read them. You have to go with reality. First you said that snow would “be a thing of the past”: http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html When that didn’t happen: http://reasonabledoubtclimate.files.wordpress.com/2011/07/snowcover1.gif you had to change your tune to accommodate reality. So “global warming” became “climate change” so you could include snowstorms into your paradigm of trying to make utility rates skyrocket. You haven’t even proven you have a GED, much less any expertise in meteorology…and the forecast is similar to last year because of similar conditions…La Nina again, cold PDO again, fairly warm water in Lake Michigan again, fairly warm water off the Texas/Louisiana coast, an above average number of tropical storms. When you see a pattern, you go with it. For instance, you support the Federal Government funding Cowboy Poetry Festivals. It would therefore be logical to assume a proposed government grant for the Garbageperson Poetry Festival would also gain your enthusiastic support.

        2. Dan says:

          I’m clueless! WOW? There is an original! Interesting that Randy called you and you posted. Do you even watch Bill on TV?
          Are you familiar with Bill’s knowledge and experience?
          Evidently, not! By the way that word comes from evidence, Big Daddy. Bill’s forecast is different than last year. For starters, he is forecasting more snow for GR. Did you read that or are you just trying to make yet another FEEBLE attempt to discredit, Bill? What experience have you got? All you ever say is it’ll be warmer, something to do with that force fed stuff you are pedaling on Bill’s Blog! Why do you do that again? Oh yeah, kicked out of other blogs right? It certainly does make you wonder! Oh but I’m clueless! I read it all, Big Daddy!! If you ever bothered to get your head out of your rear end, you might see that. I guess that is asking too much. You tell me to get a life, that is almost funny!! I have a life! Do you? Think about what you are doing? Also, think about what you are hoping to accomplish here. Think about this much? “SAME OLD STORY SAME OLD Song and DANCE!” You have nothing, Big Deception Bigger Con so you attempt to discredit. Funny thing is, you actually believe it. That jealously thing makes people do some crazy things!

        3. big Daddy BC says:

          I appreciate your defensiveness. This is, after-all, your career. I try not to be too critical, but it’s funny that after you criticized me, you come out with a forecast just like mine! And, you may have dropped the hint that it’s going to be snowy, but not until after AccuWeather and I did. Go back and search. You’ll see I’m right. You played it safe and waited. I have the luxury of anonymity while YOU’RE on the record as the weatherman. I see now why only Irish Coffee took the bet, but I can’t wait to see HIM walking around with a Big Daddy’s Blog tshirt. lol

          Fact is, CO2 must be considered in every forecast. That’s the piece you keep missing. And by doing so, you’re starting to look like an amateur. Get with the times and the conclusion of every major climatological institute and university on Earth. Climate change as a result of global warming is real, it’s man-made, and it’s affecting weather conditions. Sorry.

          http://apps.edf.org/content_images/graph-world-global-temp-datasets.jpg

        4. Dan says:

          Big Daddy are you trained in weather? Do you know more than Bill? I only ask because all I see you do is, take what Bill posts in attempt to contradict it. Is this because you are delusional or jealous of Bill’s success?
          I draw your attention to exhibit A:
          I try not to be too critical, but it’s funny that after you criticized me, you come out with a forecast just like mine! And, you may have dropped the hint that it’s going to be snowy, but not until after AccuWeather and I did. Go back and search. You’ll see I’m right. You played it safe and waited. I have the luxury of anonymity while YOU’RE on the record as the weatherman.

          REALLY! That is ALL you are is critical, Big Daddy! What is your deal? You cannot pedal your BS so you work to discredit, if that doesn’t work you steal somebody’s work.
          If that doesn’t work you attempt to play the continual message of untruth. Oh, you may look like you know what you are talking about. However, you take and twist things just enough to gain some type of credibility.
          I’m not defending Bill. He doesn’t need me to defend him. Look at all of his years of experience and all the other things he does!!! He makes you look small, feeble and extremely weak, BIG DADDY! I realize in your world that you are sad and lonely. You also probably have a very difficult time facing the reality of your own life. I get it!
          Co2 argument again? Lets see the percentage of Co2 and its effect are what again? Oh yeah, something like .0000001% WOW!
          Statistically, that is insignificant at best, Big Daddy!
          Did you not show up for that lesson in science? Did you even take statistics?
          Here you go with more of the same attempts at discrediting Bill.
          And by doing so, you’re starting to look like an amateur. Get with the times and the conclusion of every major climatological institute and university on Earth

          You look like an amateur, Big Daddy. You make several attempts to come across as pseudo intellectual. Have you succeeded? You look like even less than amateur, Big Daddy!
          Is there any original thought in here posted by you?
          FACE the reality of your existence, Big Daddy. You, Joanne and Al Gore can hang out at Al’s House to talk about “truth”

        5. big Daddy BC says:

          I would never claim to know more than anyone else. What I do claim is that I’m guided by science and reason rather than ideologies and cash. Bill Steffen’s paid by a GIANT media company that obviously supports his efforts to discredit the climatologists, physicists, and physical meteorologists that do the science that’s uncovered man’s role in climate change. Bill gets paid to discredit scientists, plain and simple. After debating him for more than a year, I’ve learned a couple of things. First, he doesn’t understand the science. That’s why he doesn’t even try to debate it. Instead he just posts links to right-wing political sites. Second, he only believes about half of what he says. He contradicts himself constantly and back peddles rather than admiting he’s wrong. Heck, I’ve even seen him go back and change his own posts. LOL
          Why do I post here? That’s simple. This is not a weather blog. It’s a pulpit that this company uses to spread a right-wing agenda. I’m the voice of reason. I mean, have a look at what the right has done to our state since January. They’ve raised taxes on the middle class by almost two billion dollars. They’ve eroded workers’ rights, bill after bill. They’ve gutted the public sector in an attempt to break unions and privatize services, thereby stealing benefits and wages from the middle class. They’ve cut unemployment, tax credits, and police. They’ve created an Emergency Manager Act that gives Snyder the power of a third-world dictator and violates the US constitution. Why should it be a surprise that our local weatherman is on the take? But the beauty of social media, is that we don’t have to just sit and listen to the propaganda. We can fight back.

          Don’t believe me. Have a look at this.

          http://www.miaflcio.org/images/documents/2011_summer_legislative_update.pdf

        6. Dan says:

          So, here we go again! Right, Big Daddy!
          The thought occurs to me, why post all of your BS here if, in fact, you are really so ticked off at the Rick Synder?
          You could be launching a “Get rid of Rick campaign” You could be working constructively to support efforts like that.
          Instead, you come one here and with a couple of strokes of the key, you profess to be something. Isn’t that right?
          Is reality really that bad?
          Also, Bill is a meteorologist and he happens to run a weather blog! You are the one that continues to bring up, global warming and politics, Big Daddy! I find it quite amusing that you accuse Bill of all this, yet when challenged, all you do is deny the information provided, Big Daddy. You then, proceed to go off on some other issue!! YET, you say in your post that you are guided by science and reason?
          This post by you, Big Daddy, almost borders lunacy.
          The conclusion comes LAST! Any first-year statistics student knows that the more data you use, the MORE accurate. You conspiracy theorists continually try to write the conclusion before doing the actual work.
          In all of your posts, you are attempting to do exactly that, put the conclusion first!!!
          The evidence to support Global Warming has not been proven!
          The evidence to support the effects of green house gases and/or Co2 has been shown to be less than negligible.
          Why do you consistently attempt to conclude something that has not been proven? Then, you accuse Bill and others of supporting this issue or that issue. Furthermore, you have the audacity to conclude that we can fight back?
          No, your theories (key word here) look good to the average person. However, your actions, related to your posts here prove one thing. You do not want to truly fight for “your cause.” All you really want to do is PRETEND to be somebody else and in this process, you want to push your political BS!
          You MUST be a very sad, lonely and dejected person! I would call you a man but your posts bring that into question. Your realities in life, are not Bill’s, Rick’s or the Right Wing Agenda’s fault!
          “A pulpit this company uses to spread the right wing agenda”
          WOW! Really, Big Daddy? How many people have come to believe what you are saying/posting?

        7. big Daddy BC says:

          Dan, I’m going to file that under ‘how to say absolutely nothing in 200 words or less.’ You’re truly an idiot. If your family and friends haven’t told you yet, ask them. lol

          Read Bill’s thread. In it he cleverly sneaks a claim about the PDO causing the warming we’ve seen instead of CO2. It’s just enough to worm into the viewers’ subconscious. “PDO? What’s that? You mean the jury’s out?” No, it’s not. I’ve said a hundred times that I’ll go away as soon as the corporation that owns WOOD stops spreading propaganda through this blog.

        8. Dan says:

          You’re truly an idiot. If your family and friends haven’t told you yet, ask them. lol

          I’m the idiot?! Is this your attempt to sound clever?
          Lets enter exhibit A: “Your forecast is the same as mine, only a tad cooler” Are you the expert, here? Are you trained in weather?
          Here is exhibit B: “I would never claim to know more than anyone else. What I do claim is that I’m guided by science and reason rather than ideologies and cash.”
          This all B.S. BIG DADDY! You use this to bring in all of your interpretation without data. All of your theories and brainwashed neologisms. You may NEED to look that word up, Big Daddy! By the looks of it, sure doesn’t take much to go over your head.

          Here we have exhibit C: “It’s a pulpit that this company uses to spread a right-wing agenda. I’m the voice of reason”
          You are the only to have this ability? What a CROCK!
          Finally we begin to really get to what you want to drone on about, “They’ve created an Emergency Manager Act that gives Snyder the power of a third-world dictator and violates the US constitution. Why should it be a surprise that our local weatherman is on the take? But the beauty of social media, is that we don’t have to just sit and listen to the propaganda. We can fight back.”

          Only, you don’t really want to fight. You would much rather spread filth and deception. Furthermore, you choose to use Bill’s blog to attempt to do this.
          You would much rather choose to beguile rather than accept the truth. You may have to look that word up too, Big Daddy!
          How is it that a person who attempts to discredit someone, does this on this person’s blog? Oh, but you call me an idiot? Science and Reason, a couple of terms that you quoted previously, remember?
          How is that when you are challenged with the very topics that you ask for, science and reason, you go off to a conclusion? Didn’t you say that you cannot do this?
          What a utter nonsense and lunacy.
          I get it! I know you are jealous of Bill, Big Daddy!
          Perhaps, when you earn something in life, you might understand what credibility and respect are all about!! Until then, we will continually be entertained by your dexterity that you display using the keyboard!!!
          PLEASE, I have asked you leave my friends and family out of this!!!! I have asked you to do this. You know nothing about them or me?

        9. big Daddy BC says:

          If calling you an idiot makes me sound clever, cool. Unintended.
          So now you’re presenting exhibits. I had no idea you were versed in the vernacular of the courts. I thought the bible was the only thing you retained an expertise in (it’s certainly not debate). Fantastic, but I object to your exhibits because they’re NOT exhibits, only critiques of my work. You cannot provide evidence where none exits, stupid, because this is about personalities for you and not science. You’d like to put ME on trial for providing evidence contrary to WOOD’s anti-climate change agenda but you can’t because you have no idea who I am! lol The only thing you know is that I’m somehow capable of poking truck-sized holes in Steffen’s conspiracy theory. I realize you have a man-crush on the dude, and that’s cool, but as I said, it’s his wing-nut AGENDA and not his personality that I object to. Deal with it, idiot.

        10. Randy (SW Walker) says:

          DB- We FINALLY agree on something- You are 100% correct: We can fight back. Let’s start by voting out the MUSLIM in the White House along with all of his socialist agendas in 2012. You in? LET”S DO IT TOGETHER!!!!!

        11. Dan says:

          Um, wrong from the beginning, the middle and the end! You are just WRONG, DEAL with that, Big Daddy!!
          You keep harping on SCIENCE and Data. You also want to make the point about you being the only one with reason. You also stated in one post or more, that you were a critical thinker! If all of this is true then why resort to name calling?
          You still never answered the MOST basic of questions that I have posted to you. Its that because it went over your head?
          Big Surprise there!
          Let’s try this one, I’ll keep it simple so that it won’t go over your head. Nah, I’ll wait on that one. How about this though? I can’t put you on trial because the case would be a slam dunk against you! You would not be able to provide evidence! Nor, would you be able to have any of your made up evidence corroborated. FACE it, smart guy! You’d lose big time in a trial and you have already lost in the bigger court of public opinion!
          The holes that you claim to poke are more delusions from your hallucinogenic altered mind!!
          Still is a bit of a mystery to me, why you continue.
          You keep continually taking the bait from me and from many others on the blog!
          Bill continues to make you look really foolish. He keeps continuing to do this!!
          Still jealous of Bill’s success, I see!!!
          I’ll state it again, because I don’t think you caught it.
          If you have ever earned anything in your life, you might gain some respect. I can see that this is just NOT possible for you. Your M.O. remains the same! Ask yourself how many people that read your posts, believe you Big Daddy? What is like 1 or did that person stop posting? Oh yeah, that was your alternate ego posting under another name. How did that work out for you? You don’t think others can see your B.S,?
          Voice of reason, oh, OK! What a JOKE!
          Deal with that!

        12. big Daddy BC says:

          I know I shouldn’t respond to you, but can’t help it. You’re REALLY funny. I know you don’t mean to be, but supid’s funny. I laugh through every post. Actually, I was at a party last weekend and pulled up the blog to read some of your posts to the group. People were laughing their a$$e$ off.

          Keep on, Dan the man! Rant away, brother.

        13. Bill Steffen says:

          You guys sure know how to party…”Hey, after we plan Occupy Borculo, we can sit around and look at comments on a weather blog! After that we can all take turns reading from the Little Red Book!” (and how stupid do you have to be to misspell “stupid”)

        14. Dan says:

          You actually went to a party, Big Daddy? SHOCK!
          Also, what does it say about a party when during the party, you log on to Bill’s Blog and you read what I have posted?
          SERIOUSLY?!
          Still attempting to hide, I see! Also, you still remain jealous of Bill!
          Is reality really that bad for you, Bog Daddy? It must be, because you keep continuing to make things up. In everything you have posted, I think I might believe that you took some time to read what I have posted.

        15. Irish coffee says:

          “Occupy Borculo” It should be re-named “Trash_____”
          OR “Occupy Double Standard-s & POORS” Sheesh, EVEN bloody N.Korea + Iran are offering their (IM)MORAL SUPPORT for Occupy protest movements- w/FRIENDS + allies like those, who needs ENEMIES?!

          PS- N.Korea & IRAN govt’s would surely welcome the same type of protesting marches in their streets of tyranny, no?

        16. big Daddy BC says:

          LOL …Hook, line and sinker, weatherman. I can’t believe you took the bait! I must really be getting to you to have you correcting my spelling! Did you enjoy that? LOL

        17. Randy (SW Walker) says:

          Wow. weather blog at a party. What a true socialite. Douche.

        18. big Daddy BC says:

          Your wife talking about me again? LOL

        19. Randy (SW Walker) says:

          Aww. Did you just drop a douche/wife crack? oh man. you got me. you are so very clever! Darn you DB, you got me again!!
          What on earth will I tell my party guests this weekend as to why we cant read Bill’s Blog?
          Thanks for proving my point, by the way DB :)

      2. Bill Steffen says:

        I should almost start a threat on this. The Berkeley BEST project hit the fan over the weekend. Check this out:

        Dr. Judith Curry, BEST co-author, turns on Muller, in the Mail on Sunday article citing “hide the decline”:

        In Prof Curry’s view, two of the papers were not ready to be published, in part because they did not properly address the arguments of climate sceptics.

        As for the graph disseminated to the media, she said: ‘This is “hide the decline” stuff. Our data shows the pause (in warming), just as the other sets of data do. Muller is hiding the decline.

        ‘To say this is the end of scepticism is misleading, as is the statement that warming hasn’t paused. It is also misleading to say, as he has, that the issue of heat islands has been settled.’

        Here’s more: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/10/29/uh-oh-it-was-the-best-of-times-it-was-the-worst-of-times/#more-50286

        1. big Daddy BC says:

          Oh boy, more from Watts’ political site. LOL I’ll give it a read. Maybe Rush Limbaugh has a take on it. LOL

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          Oh, boy, more from BigDaddy, the far-left shill. LOL. Can’t you find a scientist?

        3. big Daddy BC says:

          Read it. Watts and McIntyre claim that Dr. Muller and the team of statisticians, physicists, and a Nobel laureate from Berkeley have lied. LOL This is truly funny considering that Berkeley has published every fragment of data on their website. They’ve used complete transparency because they knew the wing-nut conspiracy theorists would attack them. I’m curious about what the team’s response to these allegations will be, but am not ready to jump to a conclusion as, obviously, you are. Of course, you love to make conclusions and then search out information to support it, but we both know that’s not how science works.

        4. Bill Steffen says:

          A member of HIS OWN TEAM is dissing the report. Read it again:

          Dr. Judith Curry, BEST co-author, turns on Muller, in the Mail on Sunday article citing “hide the decline”:

          In Prof Curry’s view, two of the papers were not ready to be published, in part because they did not properly address the arguments of climate skeptics.

          As for the graph disseminated to the media, she said: ‘This is “hide the decline” stuff. Our data shows the pause (in warming), just as the other sets of data do. Muller is hiding the decline.

          ‘To say this is the end of skepticism is misleading, as is the statement that warming hasn’t paused. It is also misleading to say, as he has, that the issue of heat islands has been settled.’

          Here’s more: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/10/29/uh-oh-it-was-the-best-of-times-it-was-the-worst-of-times/#more-50286

          The point is that temperatures have leveled off. Dr. Curry says that. You can’t deny that, Pinocchio. You predicted a “Super El Nino” and we got the opposite, a La Nina. Trenberth said: “The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t.” You guys know that the tide is turning. You’re moment of opportunity to make our utility rates skyrocket is fast fleeting…goin’ down like the 2008 Detroit Lions. Go to New England and shovel that 24″ of travesty!

        5. Irish coffee says:

          More Cialis stuck in Pinocchio’s nose i see! He talks the scientific, global data, out-on-a LIMB(aw)Rush to JUDGEMENT TALK— But when presented w/ absolute(s)TRUTHS a la Antarctic ICE INCREASING, he ignores it..or renders it irrelevant to his Crap & TAX the heck out of the lower/middle classes “cause”!! $6/gal. gas anyone?

        6. Irish coffee says:

          Since Obama took Office, DISPOSABLE income of avg. Americans has DECREASED 7% w/ Democratic majority(3/3 & 2/3rds of gov.)!That’s an achy-breaky RECORD he can stump the chumps w/ on his campaign tour de FORCE.He won’t though, as he’d much prefer talking about PRIOR admin. and playing blame-game as his Trump card.HMMM, Reagan chose the more honorable route 66 of actually LEADING the country into lower unemployment,misery,inflation,etc ;)

        7. big Daddy BC says:

          Again, Bill. You’ve got some real damaging stuff here, not. A disgruntled member of the team says a little more should have been done before it posted and you scream “GLOBAL COOLING!” LOL To be honest, this person could have been manufactured by Watts and you wouldn’t question it. I wonder if Watts believed in the tooth fairy if you would. None of this has been substantiated or supported. All of the team’s data is online. Why not do your own analysis, Mr. Expert? LOL
          You sure sound desperate and a little nuts. Have a look at the latest NOAA map. What do you suppose the ratio of blue to red is? LOL

          http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/map-land-sfc-mntp/201109.gif

        8. Bill Steffen says:

          Again…the map you linked to is based on the old 1961-1990 average. Data from 1971-2000 was used 10 years ago. Now we are using 1981-2010. When you use the coolest 3-decade period, you can make the map look warm, even though temperatures were closer to the century average.

          The rapidly cooling temperatures at 14,000 feet and 25,000 feet (http://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/status/131496426562789376/photo/1) should be a concern to all. The global temperature at 25,000 feet is diving quickly and is rapidly approaching the coolest ever measured by satellite. It means even cooler temperatures ahead at ground level, and/or stronger storm systems that could give us and much of the U.S. some heavy snows this winter. People have a difficult time dealing with cold…especially when you want to make utility rates skyrocket.

        9. big Daddy BC says:

          A cooler stratosphere is the result of a warmer troposphere (greenhouse gases insulate the lowest part of the atmosphere). The scary part is that cooler gas is less able to hold important things like ozone. Bastardi’s right to be scared. If we lose the ozone layer, we ALL die.

        10. Bill Steffen says:

          Nice bait and switch – nothing’s happening to the Ozone Layer. It’s still there. We need a “BOZOne Layer” to protect outer space from the harmful effects of people who think skyrocketing energy bills is going to help the lower and middle class. My link is for temperatures 14,000 feet and 25,000 feet. That’s not the stratosphere, Pinocchio. It ain’t getting warmer: http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2011/09/hadcrut_trend_since_2001.png?w=631&h=478

        11. big Daddy BC says:

          LOL If the upper troposphere is being insulated from infrared EM energy, what do you think’s happening above it? It’s logic. Yes the ozone layer can and will be affected by a colder stratosphere. Yes, your data supports this position, and yes, your rudimentary understanding of physical meteorology is making you look ignorant, again. Perhaps now would be a good time to insert some wing-nut rhetoric and science (as interpreted by Rush Limbaugh and the gang). lol ;)

        12. Bill Steffen says:

          The EMs that Granholm appointed have nothing to do with atmospheric temperature. (LOL) It’s getting colder in the troposphere: Note the rapidly cooling temperatures at 14,000 feet and 25,000 feet (http://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/status/131496426562789376/photo/1) and it’s getting colder at the surface…the average global temperature has dropped 3 months in a row: http://www.drroyspencer.com/ The elderly, freezing because of draconian utility rate increases due to repressive carbon laws: http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/northern-ireland/a-third-of-elderly-must-choose-between-eating-and-heating-16051734.html It’s getting cold bigD.

          Even the Climate Prediction Center says your forecast for a warm/hot winter is going to bust big time: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead02/off02_temp.gif

        13. big Daddy BC says:

          I predicted above average with above average precipitation, not hot. Nice try. I may end up wrong, but I can’t do worse than you did on the Summer ’11 forecast. Holy cow! ;)

          As far as the EM’s that were given mini-dictatorships over municipalities and districts in Michigan. That power will soon be taken back by the people of Michigan.

          http://www.freep.com/article/20111105/NEWS01/111050344/Drive-repeal-Michigan-s-emergency-manager-law-gains-steam

          I wonder if you’ve seen the bill the GOP’s in the senate passed concerning bullying. These wingnuts are crazier than you.
          http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/guest-voices/post/michigan-anti-bullying-law-protects-religious-bullies/2011/11/06/gIQAhZIdtM_blog.html

        14. Bill Steffen says:

          Fair enough, you said warm, but you didn’t give specific numbers on snowfall or temperature. The Emergency Managers were appointed by Granholm and are supported by many in the communities who care about kids: http://articles.wsbt.com/2011-04-28/benton-harbor_29485035.

          Your petition drives have been a big fail: http://detnews.com/article/20110930/POLITICS02/109300399/Snyder-recall-effort-fails-again What is popular is not forcing kids into failing schools: http://www.mlive.com/education/index.ssf/2011/10/michigan_catholic_conference_p.html

        15. big Daddy BC says:

          I know you like to blame Granholm for the EMs, but as everyone already knows, she appointed Emergency Financial Managers that were required to operate within the law and US Constitution. Snyder and the GOP inflated their powers and renamed them Emergency Managers. I realize you wingnuts want to take power from the feds and give it to states, but when Governor’s start violating the constitution against the will of its citizens, it’s a coup. This law will be repealed, but God only knows what these crazies will come up with next.

          Now they’re trying to legalize bullying at school. Seriously.

          http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/guest-voices/post/michigan-anti-bullying-law-protects-religious-bullies/2011/11/06/gIQAhZIdtM_blog.html

        16. Bill Steffen says:

          I know you despise the African-American Emergency Managers that Granholm appointed, only because of self-interest…but there are kids involved…kids in failing schools, denied free choice in education because of location and circumstance. Rather than bringing the top down…rather than taking bigger and bigger chunks of the education budget and throwing them to union bosses, I want to bring the bottom up. People like Joe Harris want a better road for these kids. The EMs have local support: http://articles.wsbt.com/2011-04-28/benton-harbor_29485035

        17. big Daddy BC says:

          You like to blame Granholm for the EMs, but as everyone already knows, she appointed Emergency Financial Managers that were required to operate WITHIN the law and US Constitution. Snyder and the GOP inflated their powers and renamed them Emergency Managers. I realize you wingnuts want to take power from the feds and give it to states, but when Governor’s start violating the constitution against the will of its citizens, it’s a coup. This law will be repealed, but God only knows what these crazies will come up with next.

          Now they’re trying to legalize bullying at school. Seriously.

          http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/guest-voices/post/michigan-anti-bullying-law-protects-religious-bullies/2011/11/06/gIQAhZIdtM_blog.html

        18. Bill Steffen says:

          You still haven’t given me a definition of “bullying”. You called Romney a polygamist. That’s an obvious lie. Could you be accused of bullying by libel? You want to sentence children to failing schools. You care nothing about those kids, only about your pension. I care about kids. The EMs have community support: http://articles.wsbt.com/2011-06-29/benton-harbor_29719833 (note what it says: “The audience…applauded the announcement, a sound Harris is not used to hearing in Benton Harbor. But it’s hard not to applaud the progress the city’s made in the one year he’s been on the job.”)

    3. scott (west olive) says:

      take a house boat to the arctic circle and tell me if it’s getting warmer. You might have to walk a few miles so pack an extra candybar.

    4. Randy (SW Walker) says:

      You call people “Fudgetard” yet I’M THE REDNECK? Wow. second grade is not treating you well, sir.

        1. Randy (SW Walker) says:

          Beautiful!

        2. big Daddy BC says:

          Did you just call Mike beautiful?

    5. Bill Steffen says:

      Here’s the Berkeley graph of temperatures: http://calderup.files.wordpress.com/2011/10/best_fig.jpg Note that the time from 1945 to 1975 was a time in which there was great concern about global cooling. To choose on average between 1950 and 1980 as the base time of reference exaggerates the relative warming that occurred from 1980 to the mid 1990s. Note the black line on the graph. Temperatures have leveled off since the mid 1990s. This is from the Berkeley Press Release of 10/20: ““What Berkeley Earth has NOT done is make an independent assessment of how much of the observed warming is due to human actions, Richard Muller acknowledged.” Now that the PDO has gone cool (and it’s likely the AMO will follow at some point in the next 15 years), global temperatures have leveled off and may actually fall.

      Global upper air temperatures are as cold as they have been in the last 10 years plus: http://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/status/128967676365246464/photo/1 (NASA DATA).

    6. Bill Steffen says:

      Everyone knows it warmed a little from the early 1980s to at least the mid 1990s. You say it’s solely because of CO2 (because you want to use the issue to make utility bills skyrocket: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BqHL404zhcU) I say that CO2 is a minor player and that other natural causes have been responsible for most of the small (one degree) move in global temperatures. I think many “alarmists” know their window of opportunity to screw the lower and middle class is beginning to close. Look at the direction of this poll: http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/03/14/poll-global-warming-fears-cooling/ http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/people2/2007/24_consider_al_gore_global_warming_expert http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/10/28/donnas-ipcc-delinquent-teenager-now-in-paperback/

      1. Dan says:

        Again, Bill makes the Big Daddy look incredibly foolish for the Co2 comments! Bill: Do you know anybody in the mental health profession that can help Big Daddy? Isn’t it truly a cry for help by the Big Daddy? Maybe, he can’t help himself.

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          I think his mind has been closed longer than the old Witmark’s over by N. Kent Mall.

        2. big Daddy BC says:

          Closed to what, propaganda and wing-nut rhetoric? Guilty ;)

        3. Bill Steffen says:

          Closed to fact, logic and reason. And silly, because you think the scariest thing this Halloween is the African-American Emergency Managers that Granholm appointed.

        4. big Daddy BC says:

          …So do 600,000 Michiganders. Did you hear?

          http://michiganforward.org/?p=1303

          And if logic means believing that crooked scientists and liberal politicians are in cahoots to raise your taxes then I’m guilty. LOL You’re nuts.

        5. big Daddy BC says:

          So explain how 600,000 people equates to nobody. Again, your rhetoric fails the logic test. When are you going to start defending the middle class? How’s it feel to be a TOOL for corporate interests?

        6. Bill Steffen says:

          Geesh…and you accuse me of linking to political websites?? You people claim to be “progressives” but you’re NOT. You don’t bring progress. You bring high taxes, burdensome regulation (a fruit farmer can get fined because there was a woodchuck in his orchard? Huh?), high unemployment and slow-to-no economic growth. You are REgressive and reactionary. It’s the MIDDLE CLASS and LOWER CLASS that will be hurt if and when you triple utility rates! I don’t want to see little old ladies freezing in winter because they can’t pay their “skyrocketing” utility bills. Ronald Reagan was progressive…brought progress. Unemployment was HALVED while he was President. Same for inflation (actually more than half). People went back to work and therefore paid more tax, so government programs were better funded. Look how many new high schools were built in the late 80s and early 90s. Skyrocketing energy bills is NOT PROGRESS!

        7. big Daddy BC says:

          Yawn. You wingnuts aren’t even in the same party as Reagan. The Teabaggers are a fringe group of anti-tax, religious nuts who believe in a fascist platform that puts corporations above people. Your policies took us from the Clinton/Gore days of economic growth and expansion to the worst depression since the Great Depression. Why would we trust you now?
          We don’t. You’re at 9% in the polls. LOL

          http://www.pollingreport.com/CongJob.htm

        8. Bill Steffen says:

          You don’t know anything about the Tea Party. You’re intolerance for religion and the good it brings (Salvation Army for example…find s soup kitchen run by atheists) and your laziness to actually look into the Tea Party is quite evident in your comment. You don’t know who the leader of the Tea Party is…you don’t know where their headquarters is…you ought to at least do some checking before you spout your bigoted nonsense. The Tea Party as I understand it (and I’m not a member or in any way associated with them) is focused on the National Deficit. OK I just went to their website. Here’s there first sentence mission statement: “The impetus for the Tea Party movement is excessive government spending and taxation.” When you spend nearly 2 TRILLION dollars more than you take in…that’s “excessive government spending”. O, and this is funny: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hMdPTpOyUk4

          Check this poll: http://www.gallup.com/poll/150554/Obama-Romney-Tied-Nationally-Swing-States.aspx

        9. big Daddy BC says:

          You have no idea what I do or don’t know about the teabaggers. And you certainly know nothing about my spiritual beliefs or any affiliations I might have with a soup kitchen, church, or the Salvation Army. Those are just things you can sling around. It’s crazy how wing-nuts think they own God.

          You might as well sign up at your local teabagger office. You’re a fricken poster child.

        10. Bill Steffen says:

          Even though you’re too embarrassed to share your educational background, we can tell something about you by your many comments here. You are obviously from the far left of the political spectrum. You are quick to insult (see comment above). You are arrogant and look down upon those who disagree with you. Your spiritual passion is the State and anything that completes with the State is the subject of your wrath.

        11. big Daddy BC says:

          I’m on here to defend the middle class. I’m as moderate as they get on most issues, although I do lean left on the environment. I sound like a bleeding heart to you because the center is so far left of your precious teabagger religious position. I realize a lot of the people that post here like you, but take a moment to notice how few support your position. You’ve got a couple hillbillies that take pot shots at me, but other than that, where’s the GR support?
          People do not like what’s happening. Snyder’s numbers are in the toilet, are are congress’. This country will not support extremists or extremist ideological agendas. We don’t like oil companies. We don’t like corporations and banks that rape us every chance they get, and we don’t want our tax dollars to go to provide more welfare to those pigs that got us in trouble in the first place.
          Instead of defending billionaires, you should be defending us.

        12. Bill Steffen says:

          You’re a moderate like the 2008 Detroit Lions were a Super Bowl contender! Yup, all the moderates spend hours on a weather blog ranting about the Emergency Managers that Granholm appointed. LOL! You’re plan to make utility bills “Skyrocket” (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CNSZ62xiD4M) is what would really hurt the middle class (and the lower class, the elderly, minorities and children).

        13. big Daddy BC says:

          Hours? Sorry, man. Finding facts to dispel your smokescreen takes only minutes. I’d think since you take your data from only three different sites that it’d take you even less time. lol And, yes, I am a moderate. You’d recognize that if you weren’t so far to the right. Anything left of Newt looks like a liberal to you.

        14. Bill Steffen says:

          You’re a moderate like Bugs Bunny hates carrots! You’re a moderate like Imelda Marcos hated shoes! You’re a moderate like fixxxer loves winter! You’re a far-left, regressive collectivist. You want skyrocketing energy prices that will punish the lower and middle class and not budge global temperature a tenth of a degree.

        15. big Daddy BC says:

          Energy bills have already skyrocketed. Look what you progressive conservatives did. Your scare tactics don’t work anymore. We’re already paying outrageous fuel prices and prices.

          http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2010/06/img/retailvsoilprofits-revised2.jpg

          Here’s why…
          http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2009/06/09/business/economy/20090610-leonhardt-graphic.html

        16. Bill Steffen says:

          Well you should be happy with skyrocketing energy prices. That’s what you leftists want: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CNSZ62xiD4M Price of a gallon of gas when Obama took office was $1.83. Today it’s $3.37. Pat yourself on the back. You’re really taking it to the lower and middle class. Your energy policy? A disaster: http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2011/1029/Solyndra-scandal-probe-widens-as-White-House-orders-new-review $535 million wasted.

      2. big Daddy BC says:

        Choosing an average from between 1980 and today DIMINISHES the warming trend. What the heck are you talking about? Since when do statistical averages make MORE sense with less data. I’ll tell ya when. It’s when you’re trying to support a conclusion. Science doesn’t work that way. The conclusion comes LAST! Any first-year statistics student knows that the more data you use, the MORE accurate. You conspiracy theorists continually try to write the conclusion before doing the actual work. Your theory that scientists and leftist politicians are in cahoots to create a global crisis that will allow them to raise your taxes is waaaaayyyyyy out there. If it were accurate, countries like China, Japan, and the entire European block wouldn’t be ramping up CO2 regulatory efforts. LOL Heck, China’s communist! What do they care about taxes?

        I hope the viewers look at the sites you’ve linked in support of your position. They’re all political sites. You’re continual references to people like Rush Limbaugh and Watts take away from any credibility you have as a meteorologist.

        So you admit that global warming is real, that we’ve gone up by a degree since the mid 1950s and that CO2 is a greenhouse gas. You also acknowledge that companies like Exxon spend millions of dollars every year in an effort to discredit climatologists at NASA, AccuWeather, and NOAA. Why do you think that is? Why do you think conservative politicians both support these efforts and provide $36.5 billion in subsidies to the fossil fuel block? Follow the money, Bill. It’s not about taxes. It’s about bilking us at the pump. Exxon clears $40 billion per year! That’ll grease a lot of palms. And I’m not so ignorant as to think yours doesn’t have a little grease on it as well. ;)

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          You say the same stuff over and over again. Check this out…global temperatures (satellite IR from NASA) are the coldest they have been in the last 10 years at both 14,000 feet and 25,000 feet: http://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/status/130837459805278208/photo/1 The temperature at 25,000 feet is approaching the coldest ever measured ON ANY DATE-EVEN IN N. HEMISPHERE WINTER since the satellite went up.

          If the conclusion comes “LAST” you guys wouldn’t have to “use Mike’s TRICK to HIDE THE DECLINE”. China’s not reducing CO2, Pinocchio, look at their coal consumption: http://www.populationmedia.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/blog1024.png

        2. big Daddy BC says:

          Temperature at 25,000 feet? LOL I’m a little more worried about the temperature here on Earth.

          “The ongoing drought in Texas, which began about a year ago, has had far-reaching impacts, including to ecosystems in the Gulf of Mexico. The largest algal bloom in more than a decade—called the red tide bloom—formed along the Texas Gulf Coast and affected areas from Galveston to South Padre Island. The bloom, which depletes oxygen in the water, triggered fish kills and warnings about beach conditions, and released aerosols into the air that irritate respiratory systems. Some regions measured more than 100,000 cells per cubic millimeter of water. During years with normal rainfall, freshwater runoff into bays help keep salinity levels low enough stop these tides.”

          http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/hazards/

        3. Bill Steffen says:

          You ought to be worried about the temperature at 25,000 feet. Steeper lapse rates mean bigger storms. So, you say Texas had a bigger algae bloom 10 years ago? Not a good enough reason to make my utility rates skyrocket. Much of Texas had significant rain in October. Here’s a sample with the city/rainfall/% of Oct. average (does not include 10/31): Abilene 4.09″ (137%), Arlington 4.86″ (108%), Childress 3.23″ (144%), Dalhart 1.52″ (103%), Fort Worth 4.90″ (117%), Houston 5.43″ (91%), Junction 3.88″ (139%), Lubbock 2.31″ (131%), Mineral Wells 5.15″ (138%), San Angelo 2.91″ (107%), San Antonio 3.28″ (80%), Waco 6.20″ (159%), Wichita Falls 5.02″ (161%). It wasn’t too long ago that you leftists made fun of Gov. Rick Perry because he asked for a day of prayer for rain.

        4. big Daddy BC says:

          He prayed for it last spring, Magoo! LOL

          Holy Cow, it wasn’t too long ago that YOU were predicting a cooler than average summer!

          Six of the 10 largest wildfires in Texas history occurred in 2011.
          Fires in Texas in 2011: 18,612
          Acres burned in Texas in 2011: 3,486,124
          Texas counties with burn bans: 251 of 254

          Have a look at the crazy extremes we saw world-wide in 2011! And speaking of crazy, I love that you’re once again calling for global cooling. What an easy target you make yourself. ;)

          http://earthsky.org/earth/a-look-back-at-summer-2011s-weather-extremes-and-disasters

        5. Bill Steffen says:

          And the wildfires were set BY PEOPLE! No people, no wildfires! And for the WINTER of 2010-2011, there were ONLY 3 STATES THAT WERE WARMER THAN AVERAGE: http://climvis.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/cag3/state-map-display.pl It balances out, Pinocchio.

          Global tropical cyclone energy remains well below average: http://policlimate.com/tropical/global_major_freq.png

        6. big Daddy BC says:

          Ever try to set wet wood on fire? LOL Perhaps the worst drought in Texas history had a little something to do with it, Magoo. Pull your head out of the sand.

          And as far as this hurricane season goes, don’t forget the 17 tropical storms, which is ABOVE normal.

        7. Bill Steffen says:

          There are more named storms because we have satellites that see storms we didn’t see before and we have tracking planes that can record winds that briefly reach tropical storm strength. We’ve had 17 named storms in the Atlantic/Caribbean, but only 6 have reached hurricane strength and only 3 storms have reached category 3. As this graph suggests, total combined global accumulated cyclone energy remains low: http://policlimate.com/tropical/global_major_freq.png

          The Texas drought has been caused by an extended La Nina. You guys didn’t forecast that. “Handcuffs” Hansen was forecasting a “Super Nino” (just the opposite of what we got). http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/20110908_lanina.html

        8. big Daddy BC says:

          How funny it is that you can’t use NOAA to support your position. Instead you link us to Rush Limbaugh’s scientist at POLITICAL CLIMATE!!! LOL

          Fact is, we’ve had more storms. That means more energy, Magoo. Despite what the wingnuts say, this year is a textbook climate change year. Have a look at what the Weather Channel has to say,

          http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/2011-extreme-weather_2011-09-28?page=2

        9. big Daddy BC says:

          Here’s something from NOAA in 2008. Might explain your dilemma.

          Warmer Ocean Could Reduce Number Of Atlantic Hurricane Landfalls
          http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/01/080124115808.htm

        10. Bill Steffen says:

          You can’t have it both ways. Global warming alarmists have always said that CO2 will cause more hurricanes and stronger hurricanes. An Inconvenient Truth was released in May 2006, the year after Hurricane Katrina. The poster for the movie had a hurricane (spinning backwards for N. Hemi. BTW): http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/1/19/An_Inconvenient_Truth_Film_Poster.jpg Gore said: “The emerging consensus links global warming to increasingly destructive power of hurricanes, increasing the strength of the average hurricane a full half-step on the well-known 5-step scale.” However, the opposite has happened. Tropical storms this year have again been weak…with only 6 of 17 in the Atlantic even reaching hurricane strength. As you can see in this graph, global accumulated cyclone energy is near a historic low: http://policlimate.com/tropical/global_running_pdi.png In fact, it’s dropped steadily since Gore’s movie was released.

        11. big Daddy BC says:

          If you think I’m here to champion for Al Gore or his six year old movie, you’re wrong, although I appreciate your efforts to switch the topic from science to personalities once again. Al Gore marketed that movie like a pro and made a huge splash. Hell, you’re still talking about it. LOL

          And as far as predicting the future goes, you of all people should know how difficult that is. Take your summer 2011 forecast for example. lol As modeling improves, technology improves, and methodologies improve, our ability to understand climate change’s impacts will improve. It’s that simple. Last year’s Atlantic hurricane season WAS one of the busiest in history. This year’s June-September was the second warmest span in history. Polar Ice IS 66% below average. The southern US experienced the worst drought in history. Last year 56,000 people died in a Russian drought. And the list goes on and on and on. You can deny and use politics to justify your ideological position all day long, but in the end you look foolish standing up for the bullies that rob us at the pumps every day.

        12. Bill Steffen says:

          A lot of students were forced to see Al Gore’s movie. Craig James (a FELLOW of the AMS) said when he saw it at Aquinas College, the facilitator couldn’t even explain the Greenhouse Effect. The movie is more scare than science. I don’t know any scientist who thinks a massive increase in sea level is imminent. Sea level has actually gone down slightly in recent years (Antarctic icecap above average, Arctic icecap growing “rapidly”.

          We’ve been all through your other talking points. The drought in Texas was caused by ocean currents (La Nina). Here’s the La Nina effects map: http://www.geology.wmich.edu/kominz/c9.lanina.gif Read the 4th paragraph here: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/05/us-weather-idUSTRE7745CG20110805 The Russian heatwave was found to be natural causes NOT CO2: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/20110309_russianheatwave.html

          The troposphere has cooled to RECORD COLD levels: http://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/status/131881006130135040/photo/1 Surface temperatures are dropping: http://www.drroyspencer.com/ Hurricane intensity has dropped off significantly since 2005: http://policlimate.com/tropical/global_running_pdi.png Polar ice is not “66% below average”. First, the biggest icecap in Antarctica is BIGGER than average: http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_timeseries.png The Arctic icecap has grown by 340,000 sq. km. since 2007. “Average ice extent for October 2011 was 7.10 million square kilometers (2.74 million square miles), 2.19 million square kilometers (846,000 square miles) below the 1979 to 2000 average. This was 330,000 square kilometers (127,000 square miles) above the average for October 2007.”

        13. Irish coffee says:

          “The heatwave(in Russia) was due primarily to natural phenomenon of ‘blocking pattern’”… from gov’t NOAA SOURCE!! REAL.NATURAL.WEATHER….

        14. big Daddy BC says:

          I think we all know your mentor’s position on climate change. He’s as crazy as you. My point in putting up that short list that you try to explain away is to dispel the blurry impression you’ve been trying to give that everything’s normal or actually cooling. LOL
          You conspiracy theorists are having a pretty tough job convincing the world that liberals made this all up with crooked scientists just to raise your taxes. Heck, almost every country on Earth has ratified Kyoto, INCLUDING CHINA!
          Exxon is spending millions per year financing people like Rush Limbaugh, Spencer, and Watts, and it’s working. They’ve blurred the story well enough create doubt in the minds of the public. But I’m not telling you anything you don’t already know. You work for a billion dollar media corp that supports your wing-nut agenda. Heck, your station is a mouthpiece for Dick DeVos and Co.

        15. Bill Steffen says:

          China’s not going to abide by any treaty…they don’t observe copyright law. China’s coal consumption is going thru the roof: http://gregor.us/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/China-Coal-Consumption-in-Mtoe-2000-20101.png http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/11/08/chinas-climate-cah-blackmail/ All you have left is insults and trashing the character of anyone who disagrees with you. Support for the carbon tax in Australia is plummeting: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/17/us-australia-politics-idUSTRE76G2ZQ20110717 The American public is also starting to question the hype: http://www.gallup.com/poll/126560/americans-global-warming-concerns-continue-drop.aspx Support for your alarmist hyperbole is declining and you can’t “Hide the Decline”.

        16. big Daddy BC says:

          http://www.esa.int/SPECIALS/Cryosat/SEMQK4908BE_0.html

          I have a lot more than insults. I have the entire scientific community. Your conspiracy theory that liberals and crooked scientists are in cahoots to raise your taxes might hold water on a small scale for two elderly weathermen, but not world-wide. China may use a lot of coal, but they did sign Kyoto, their intent to reduce emissions. And so did everyone else but us.

          http://apps.edf.org/content_images/graph-world-global-temp-datasets.jpg

        17. big Daddy BC says:

          China will sign anything? Did you just slander a billion people? Racist.

          Be careful Amway’s biggest distribution center is there. You might piss the prophet, Dick DeVos off. He may throw a lightning bolt at you.

        18. Bill Steffen says:

          Ha, nice try…as if China is a democracy and the 1.4 billion (to be more exact) people have an equal say in what the government does. Remember the fake Apple stores: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/22/us-china-apple-fakestore-idUSTRE76L20U20110722 There’s copyright infringement: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Music_copyright_infringement_in_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China and currency manipulation: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/07/business/senate-nears-approval-of-measure-to-punish-china-over-currency-manipulation.html?pagewanted=all I think the Obama administration ought to start to look at ways to have a level playing field with other countries. Overburdensome rules and regulations make our goods more costly compared to other countries.

      3. big Daddy BC says:

        Not one, not two, not three, but FOUR political sites in support of your conspiracy theory! Bravo. LOL

        Here’s a graph that plots temperature against CO2 emissions. Looks like a correlation to me. Don’t really need a Chi-Square test to label CO2′s influence ‘significant.’

        http://chartsgraphs.files.wordpress.com/2009/08/co2_temp_trend.png

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          It’s NASA data, Pinocchio…and you haven’t proven you have a GED, much less any credentials. I don’t know where you got that “political graph” from Kelly O’Day?. For one, it’s more than a couple years old. For two…it’s wrong…global temperatures didn’t rise rapidly from 1940 to 1980. http://www.environmentviews.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/Global-Temp-Singer-Report-300×193.jpg (NASA DATA) Global Cooling was all the rage in the late 1970s: http://socioecohistory.wordpress.com/2010/01/22/the-world-is-cooling-and-global-warming-is-a-fraud%E2%80%9D-nick-griffin-tells-euro-parliament/ and http://www.google.com/imgres?q=time+magazine+global+cooling&hl=en&biw=1103&bih=658&gbv=2&tbm=isch&tbnid=eKjn8pVyz5_EtM:&imgrefurl=http://thetruthpeddler.wordpress.com/2010/09/17/in-the-1970s-the-scare-was-a-coming-ice-age/&docid=J3i9t-cM2PikOM&imgurl=http://thetruthpeddler.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/global-cooling.jpg&w=400&h=527&ei=uC2vTsbtCcngsQK5_7idAQ&zoom=1&iact=rc&dur=559&sig=106469328336493859915&page=1&tbnh=152&tbnw=114&start=0&ndsp=16&ved=1t:429,r:0,s:0&tx=71&ty=64 and http://www.google.com/imgres?q=time+magazine+global+cooling&hl=en&biw=1103&bih=658&gbv=2&tbm=isch&tbnid=Y1RM5VrkbDUYYM:&imgrefurl=http://www.examiner.com/public-policy-in-louisville/scientists-predict-start-of-new-ice-age&docid=ZJHgovO9M1tF1M&imgurl=http://www.examiner.com/images/blog/EXID31244/images/Time-Global-Cooling.png&w=302&h=395&ei=uC2vTsbtCcngsQK5_7idAQ&zoom=1&iact=hc&vpx=691&vpy=135&dur=517&hovh=182&hovw=138&tx=115&ty=101&sig=106469328336493859915&page=1&tbnh=152&tbnw=115&start=0&ndsp=16&ved=1t:429,r:4,s:0 Here’s recent global temperature: http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/MAYGLOBAL.jpg This one is interesting because of the length of record: http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-7h1YrPvaHE0/TVlhjYqedKI/AAAAAAAABoc/NS4pcYH8PKg/s1600/cet_december2010.png

        2. big Daddy BC says:

          The graph’s wrong? NOAA disagrees. …So does NASA and the Japanese Met Assoc. Is it just a bizarre coincidence that CO2 emissions match the general curve of temperature increase? You sound a little nuts when you claim that #1, the Earth is cooling, and #2, the world’s scientists and liberals have conspired to create climate change so they can raise your taxes! I love a good conspiracy theory, but come on. LOL

          http://apps.edf.org/content_images/graph-world-global-temp-datasets.jpg

          And if you wanted my credentials you could have come to the Gun Lake BBQ I invited you to a while back, but you backed out at the last minute and made some excuses about not knowing where we’d be. LOL (again)

        3. Bill Steffen says:

          Here’s global temperature over the past decade: http://icecap.us/images/uploads/CRU_decadal.JPG It doesn’t look real scary, does it? Maybe that’s why Trenberth said: “The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t.”

          Truth is, at this moment, the Earth IS cooling! The upper atmosphere is cooling rapidly: http://www.drroyspencer.com/ and http://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/status/131496426562789376/photo/1 The global surface temperature has started to cool: http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_current.gif and should be back to average by late winter. Two major record October snowstorms…and it was snow, not rain…because it was cold enough aloft to make snow instead of rain! This is only the beginning of a stormy, snowy winter for much of the country. You guys said we’d stop getting snow because of global warming: http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html Boy were you guys WRONG: http://www.google.com/imgres?q=northern+hemisphere+snow+cover+rutgers&hl=en&gbv=2&biw=1086&bih=658&tbm=isch&tbnid=ezhpnJ2-kMAe2M:&imgrefurl=http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global-snow/2010/12&docid=VQ6iOW6UBbSdFM&imgurl=http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/snowcover-nhland/201012.gif&w=650&h=534&ei=po2wTpaAOc6ZhQeQwNnUAg&zoom=1&iact=hc&vpx=117&vpy=307&dur=1099&hovh=203&hovw=248&tx=150&ty=116&sig=106469328336493859915&page=1&tbnh=148&tbnw=201&start=0&ndsp=15&ved=1t:429,r:5,s:0 Snow has been INCREASING! You’ve been a double whammy of bad prediction and bad policy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aukM01UFXh0 NO SKYROCKETING UTILITY BILLS! NO ADDED HARDSHIP FOR THE POOR AND MIDDLE CLASS!!!

        4. big Daddy BC says:

          You may not be aware that one of the dangers of this big increase in greenhouse gases is a cooler stratosphere. In fact, as the gas cools it loses its ability to retain ozone. So, thanks for the update and confirmation that there’s more to this global warming thing than severe weather, drought, extinction, and disease.

        5. Bill Steffen says:

          You guys are so good at “adjusting”. You adjust temperatures…you “use Mike’s TRICK to HIDE THE DECLINE”. Your computer models now show that among the effects of increasing greenhouse gases is 3-day home delivery of the G.R. Press and the breakup of Kim Kardashian’s marriage! You forecast that because of global warming, “snow would become a thing of the past”: http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html When snow actually INCREASED: http://www.google.com/imgres?q=snowfall+northern+hemisphere+rutgers&hl=en&biw=1099&bih=658&gbv=2&tbm=isch&tbnid=ezhpnJ2-kMAe2M:&imgrefurl=http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global-snow/2010/12&docid=VQ6iOW6UBbSdFM&imgurl=http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/snowcover-nhland/201012.gif&w=650&h=534&ei=WsWxTvSJLPTDsQKV-vy1AQ&zoom=1&iact=hc&vpx=675&vpy=309&dur=1893&hovh=203&hovw=248&tx=155&ty=92&sig=106469328336493859915&page=1&tbnh=142&tbnw=194&start=0&ndsp=15&ved=1t:429,r:8,s:0 you had to turn that around to “global warming causes more snow”. You started with “global warming”. Now that temperatures have leveled off: http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2011/09/hadcrut_trend_since_2001.png you had to change the terminology to “climate change” and then whenever the weather deviated from average you could scream “climate change!!”. You want to make utility bills “skyrocket”: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CNSZ62xiD4M This would be a terrible burden on the lower and middle class and would do NOTHING to budge global temperature.

        6. big Daddy BC says:

          Global warming evokes a change in climate. I know that’s confusing. LOL And, I did not predict more snow. You’ve posted that same tired article at least fifty times. Get some new material. So a scientist called for a decrease in regional frozen precip? What the heck’s that got to do with us?
          You’re problem is that you’re living in the past. As the science gets better, technology improves, and modeling becomes more precise, our understanding of the effects of a warming globe will be improved. Does that make sense, old timer?
          What we understand is that warmer skies hold more water. More water = more precip – (IN SOME REGIONS). We also know that with more water being absorbed, other regions will be dryer. It’s not that complicated. What you get is a MORE dynamic patter, which we’ve definitely seen.

          Have a look at the Weather Channel’s take,
          http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/2011-extreme-weather_2011-09-28

        7. Bill Steffen says:

          Global Warming (adding CO2) should make the Earth warmer. Your plan was to scare the world into adopting draconian “solutions” to fix the impending disaster, massive fees and regulations to boost utility rates. We got absurd claims about rapidly rising sea level (not happening (http://www.real-science.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/ScreenHunter_47-Nov.-05-20.56.gif)…in fact Gore bought oceanfront property…he can’t be too concerned) You saw that LOTS of money was involved…government grants galore…conferences in warm, exotic places like Durban. You made predictions (“snow would be a thing of the past”: http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&ved=0CC4QFjAC&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.independent.co.uk%2Fenvironment%2Fsnowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html&ei=Evy1TuPAO4bA2gWfqYTNDQ&usg=AFQjCNHMrA5NiAK6i6GLV9gx1Yg5jeWkKA&sig2=HSTYVjjg5gBhXP2OHQTJUA Then reality set in. We got MORE snow, not less: http://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2011/02/nhland011.png and temperatures held steady in the past decade: http://reasonabledoubtclimate.files.wordpress.com/2011/09/hadcrut2001.png

          So, you had to change the plan…you couldn’t ignore reality. Therefore “global warming” morphed into “climate change” so that you could blame any deviation from average on CO2. You could “adjust” temperatures to make the present look warmer and the past cooler. You could “adjust” computer models to get the desired solution. Climategate was a setback. The leaked emails showed the lack of substance in the claims, the deliberate conspiracy to ignore the Freedom of Information Laws and a conspiracy to deny free speech to those with differing views published.

          The East Coast Snowstorm was SNOW. They get rainstorms at this time of year on the East Coast. We got snow because it was COLD enough for snow. Remember, I showed you that global tropospheric temperatures are at record LOWS: http://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/status/131881006130135040/photo/1 14,000 feet is NOT the stratosphere. It’s less than 3 miles above the ground. CO2 will not make it colder. It will not turn rainstorms into snowstorms. You don’t get colder when you turn up the thermostat in your home.

          The cure is worse than the disease (if there is a disease at all) and it’s HURTING the poor, the elderly and middle class. Look at this article: http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/northern-ireland/a-third-of-elderly-must-choose-between-eating-and-heating-16051734.html This is what carbon taxes do..what they will do here if bigDaddy and his ilk get their way. Don’t let them.

        8. Irish coffee says:

          How long(in days/YEARS) that DEM. controlled gov’t hasn’t passed a budget now?….speaking of utility/heating bills– Mi has regulations in place that hit consumers TWICE(coming AND GOING!).Our taxes (fed) go towards “GREEN” and renewable subsidies/regulations which translate to utility co. having to use more EXPENSIVE resources(certain % renewable) that in turn get passed on to CONSUMERS! ;( But hey, we the working/middle class are supposed to pay our fair share in this brave new world progressive brand of kleptocratic statism!

        9. big Daddy BC says:

          How about the wing-nut Michigan Senate? They just passed an anti-bullying law that exempts for the bullying of homosexuals. Seriously. You fringe republicans are NUTS!!! WWJD

          http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/guest-voices/post/michigan-anti-bullying-law-protects-religious-bullies/2011/11/06/gIQAhZIdtM_blog.html

        10. Bill Steffen says:

          Should someone reading a Bible passage be arrested? Should someone correctly stating the policy of the Catholic Church on homosexuality be arrested? What if a priest does that inside a Catholic Church. Could he be arrested in his own church? Would you arrest the priest? None of the news articles I saw on the subject gave us a clue as to how “bullying” was going to be defined. Will the law be uniformly enforced? If so, then gays will not be able to bully Catholics. Look at all the vandalism to Catholic Churches (even this past week in Oakland). You’d have to be pretty careful what you call other people here on my blog.

        11. big Daddy BC says:

          A priest in his own church speaking about the evils of homosexuality is a little different than children bullying an effeminate child on the playground. Now imagine the bullies just came from church. Your party is attempting to legislate morality once again. It’s a sickening and perverse law, by far the worst thing that’s come out of this extremist legislature. Are you actually in support of it?

        12. Bill Steffen says:

          Again…you can’t furnish me with a definition of “bullying”. In the incident that prompted this proposed law, there was hazing involved which could certainly be prosecuted under existing law. We have way too many laws and regulations in this country right now (woodchucks not allowed in orchards?). I would hope (but don’t have much confidence that it will) that applicable laws would not be selectively enforced.

        13. big Daddy BC says:

          No law would be better than the one the Michigan GOP designed. This one actually outlaws bullying for all but those with permission from God.

          http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/401901/november-09-2011/the-word—bully-pulpit

        14. Bill Steffen says:

          You called Romney a polygamist. He should use the law the charge you with bullying.

        15. big Daddy BC says:

          You didn’t know that Romney was a polygamist? I thought that’s why he was so popular. I hope he makes it legal.

        16. Bill Steffen says:

          Poll – Romney up two on Obama (7th question): http://www.foxnews.com/interactive/politics/2011/11/16/fox-news-poll-gingrich-and-romney-top-gop-nominee-picks/ In this poll their tied: http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2011/images/11/14/rel18b.pdf (the most conservative age group is 35-49). The 18-35 vote still favors Obama, but not nearly as strong as four years ago. Of the young people who voted for Obama and plan to vote for him again, enthusiasm for Obama is much lower than four years ago.

          Romney is not a polygamist…but you are a liar.

  38. fixxxer says:

    i just hope we get some sunny days this winter. i remember a few back it was cloudy almost all winter and it was a downer.

    BRING ON spring!

    1. Dan says:

      Um Sorry Fixxer! Winter hasn’t even officially arrived yet!
      The seasons go like this, Fall, Winter, Spring and Summer! Then, this repeats!
      Do you remember that Fixxer?

  39. ninifere says:

    Hey Bill,
    Looks like it will be right around freezing tonight with a few showers…. any chance of a snowflake or two mixing in early tomorrow morning?

  40. Barry in Zeeland says:

    Wow, 15 minutes of heavy pea sized hail here in Zeeland. The whole ground is white, looks like it snowed.

  41. kwood says:

    the sky looks real dark here!

  42. ninifere says:

    sleet in NE grand Rapids

    1. ninifere says:

      take that back just small hail

  43. Jen says:

    Hi Bill,

    I am in New England (my birthplace) visiting family…we had a trace of snow last night and we are expecting a Nor’easter Saturday night with 6-10 inches of snow! A little early for snow!
    Jen

  44. jglass says:

    Thank you Bill! You rock!! There are some pretty hateful people out there. Not really sure what happened to “peace.” We will continue to invite you and the whole Woodtv team into our home every night, just as we always have. Keep up the great work!

    1. big Daddy BC says:

      intern alert!

    2. Bill Steffen says:

      Thanks, jglass – I appreciate it.

  45. jglass says:

    Also, I don’t know where these other “experts” work, but we only watch the best! Thanks again Bill!! You’re the MAN!

  46. bnoppe says:

    MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL
    BE A HISTORIC OCTOBER SNOWSTORM FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THE HEAVY
    WET SNOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE MAJOR TO CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE TO TREES
    AND POWER LINES

    Yikes! for the Northeast

    1. Cort S. (Plymouth, NH) says:

      That’s me! 3-6 inches here unless I’m (un)lucky enough to get in the heavier mesoscale snow bands. We already had our first snowflakes of the season yesterday, and it was more than most of us expected (about a quarter inch, and I had to scrape off my car because the bottom layer had melted then refroze). The coastal low pressure system is expected to rapidly intensify from 1007 mb to 980 mb in 24 hours between 8 am Saturday and Sunday. Looks like we’ve got a bomb on our hands; my first Nor’easter.

      1. Tinaingobles says:

        You’ll love it!! Careful on those mountain road! I’m from western Mass., and my facebook has been getting flooded with updates from family and friends. That heavy wet snow is no good for the leaves on the trees and an unfrozen drenched ground!!

        1. Tinaingobles says:

          Wintumn!!

  47. Paul says:

    Bill – I remember watching you back in the 70′s and you are the only weatherman that I trust even though I live in Alma I watch you nightly. Don’t pay attention to Mr. Skinner if he wants a 100% forecast, let him buy a weather rock.

  48. INDY says:

    yeaaaa babby I say 137 inches of Bills Bloggs coming starting next week HE COULD GO ALL THE WAY to May 7th with 2 thunder snows out of the norm xmass will be deep new years eve will sleet 5 BLIIZZARDS with ice 12 kegs of sprites with lots of candels at night are u ready for a up all night blogg in the fog with logs for the fire place at Bill’s place ……HAPPY WINTER ……YARDofBRICKS!!!! INDYYY AND HIS MIXXX!!!!

  49. Nathan A. says:

    What is the NAO and what does it do? (I am learning so much)!

    1. INDY says:

      WEATHER RADIO !!!!! INDYYY!!

    2. Bill Steffen says:

      The North Atlantic Oscillation. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/nao.shtml We watch the various oscillations for clues to our long-range weather pattern. A negative NAO and AO (Arctic Oscillation) often mean a cool northwest flow pattern for the Eastern U.S.

      1. big Daddy BC says:

        I wonder if you’ve read this piece, published in the the December issue of the journal Nature Geoscience. It links the the NAO and global warming. Interesting piece. Apparently global warming is affecting more than just terrestrial climate.

        “As temperatures get warmer, there’s potential for more violent swings of the NAO — the phases becoming even more positive and even more negative,” Hughen added. “If the NAO locks more into these patterns, intense storms will become more intense and droughts will become more severe.”

        http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/01/090113101200.htm

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          That’s an “if” that is not happening and will not happen. It’s like saying if I suddenly become 20 feet tall, I’ll have a hard time living in my house. There is NO evidence that I’m becoming 20-feet tall and there is no evidence that the ocean currents are being affected by the additional CO2. Here’s La Nina – El Nino by month (3.4): http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml. Dr. John Brignell of the Univ. of Southampton has compiled this list of claimed effects of global warming: http://www.spiked-online.com/index.php?/site/article/2045/ It includes “bananas destroyed” and “bananas grow” and “boredom”.

          As to Nature Geoscience…remember what Dave the Biologist said: “Dave | February 26, 2011 at 11:37 am | Reply

          “I also have to agree with Jim West. My firm ‘belief’ in AGW had already been undermined by some extremely bad papers about mosquitoes, arthropod borne disease, and the effect a warmer Earth on wildlife (I am a biologist). But, I assumed these were just opportunists jumping on the gravy train and that the problem was with the journal review process, not AGW.

          But the Climategate emails made it all too clear that there was no science at all in ALL these famous papers in Nature and other ‘prestige’ journals. Rather, all the sound and fury appeared to be generated by an unscrupulous cabal eager for grant money, fame, and lots of CO2 generating trips to warm and pleasant spots where they could regurgitate their story to a corrupted press and conniving politicians.

          As far as I can tell now, many of the assumptions of AGW appear to be false, nothing that one reads on climate change from Nature to Drudge is reliable.”

        2. big Daddy BC says:

          The IF concerns a temperature increase. The temp IS increasing, Magoo. It’s gone up a full degree since the ’70s, so you’re already twenty feet tall! This from the EPA,
          “Since the mid 1970s, the average surface temperature has warmed about 1°F.
          The Earth’s surface is currently warming at a rate of about 0.29ºF/decade or 2.9°F/century.”
          http://epa.gov/climatechange/science/recenttc.html

          Did you understand the piece or should I explain it? The NAO is NOT independent from the effects of global warming. Your latest attempt to blame all examples of climate change on ocean cycling is dealt with in this work. Fact is, you can’t do it. It’s like turning on a fan and claiming the breeze was unrelated. lol

          And your no-name examples of people that have lost ‘faith’ in science because of a couple of sloppy papers does nothing to further your cause. When you claim the globe is cooling but provide nothing but Rush Limbaugh and Exxon-Spencer links to support it, you look weak and out of touch. WHERE’S YOUR SCIENCE, MR. METEOROLOGIST?

          http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/

        3. Bill Steffen says:

          The Earth did warm about one degree from the late 1970s to 1998. That followed the cooling from the 1940s to the very cold winters of the late 1970s. Since then the temperature has leveled off: http://rankexploits.com/musings/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/gisssince2001.jpg Winters are getting colder: http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2011/11/ncdc_regions_winter_2001-2011.jpg Here’s the winter of 2009-2010: http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_oy2DMM6iwUU/S55Lg0t5mAI/AAAAAAAABe8/kfqN0L66Y9o/s320/ncdc.winter2010.us.temp.gif and the winter of 2010-2011: http://www.flickr.com/photos/60934725@N08/5554360081/ The global temperature at 25,000 feet is now at a RECORD COLD TEMPERATURE, and the temperature at 14,000 feet is nearing a RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE: http://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/status/131881006130135040/photo/1 It’s still not as warm as it was 75 years ago: http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/347541/nasa_admits_that_1934_not_1998_was.html Dave the biologist (that I quoted above) was from the NY times.

        4. big Daddy BC says:

          WRONG, WRONG, WRONG! NASA, the EPA, NOAA, The Japanese Meteorological Assn., The IPCC, Berkeley, and HADRU do not agree.
          http://apps.edf.org/content_images/graph-world-global-temp-datasets.jpg

          Your links are to political sites. These are not scientists, they’re spin doctors. I’m sure Jim the Biologist from the NY Times is a great guy, but why’s his opinion on matters of climatology and statistics relevant? You lost me. Maybe some day a legit scientist will jump on board the Conspiracy Theorist Express and deny that Exxon money, and present some data to support your position, but dude, you haven’t found one in two years! Rush Limbaugh doesn’t count. lol

          http://climate.nasa.gov/

        5. Bill Steffen says:

          NASA gets 2 BILLION DOLLARS for climate issues. Exxon is a drop in the bucket compared to that number. The point is that it’s 2011 and your alarmist theory is falling apart. Tropospheric temperature falling rapidly (some think alarmingly): https://twitter.com/?photo_id=1#!/BigJoeBastardi/status/131164542083411968/photo/1 The graphs at the link are NASA data that no one disputes. These are the global average temperature at 14,000 feet (less than 3 miles above the ground) and at 25,000 feet. That’s not the stratosphere at bigDaddy stated. The global average temperature has fallen 3 months in a row: http://www.drroyspencer.com/ (again this is NASA data that is not in dispute). We will probably continue to drop to BELOW AVERAGE in a month or two. Antarctic ice is ABOVE AVERAGE: http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/ice_ext_s.png Arctic ice is growing “rapidly”: http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ The National Snow and Ice Data Center says: “Average ice extent for October 2011 was 7.10 million square kilometers (2.74 million square miles), 2.19 million square kilometers (846,000 square miles) below the 1979 to 2000 average. This was 330,000 square kilometers (127,000 square miles) above the average for October 2007.” That means the Arctic icecap has grown by twice the size of the state of Michigan. BigD, you can’t “Hide the Decline”. The 2000s, the snowiest decade EVER in the northern hemisphere, after your guys said snow “would be a thing of the past”: http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html You guys know this is not going well: “The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t.” That’s what alarmist Trenberth said in a Climategate email (where they “used Mike’s TRICK to HIDE the decline”.) The public is catching up to your hyperbole and hype: http://www.gallup.com/poll/126560/americans-global-warming-concerns-continue-drop.aspx. It was warmer 75 years ago than it is today: http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/347541/nasa_admits_that_1934_not_1998_was.html?cat=58

        6. big Daddy BC says:

          You certainly don’t tire. You post the exact same rhetoric and cherry-picked data day in and day out. Ice is down, not up. We’re almost a million square miles below the thirty year average, a tick or two up from 2007, the lowest point in human history. Follow this link for the whole story. http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png

          Despite Bill Steffen’s forecast for a cooler than average summer, 2011 was the second hottest in human history, one in which the south experienced the worst drought ever! One that was full of energy-driven weather extremes. Read this from the Weather Channel, http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/2011-extreme-weather_2011-09-28?page=2

        7. big Daddy BC says:

          And btw, Exxon is certainly not a drop in the hat compared to 2 billion dollars. Exxon clears five time that every quarter and gets $36,500,000,000 in subsidies, not to mention a tax free existence in Michigan, courtesy of the middle class. Thanks, Mr. Snyder.
          http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2011/03/14/150463/rick-snyder-corporate-taxes/

          Here’s how high gas prices are affecting big oil.
          http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2010/06/img/retailvsoilprofits-revised2.jpg

        8. Bill Steffen says:

          Price of gas when Obama took office: $1.83/gal. Price of gas today $3.37/gal. Our energy policy? It’s not pretty: http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/editorials/ct-edit-solyndra-20111117,0,906162.story $535 million down the tubes.

          This is from CNN: “That said, Uncle Sam gets his money in other ways. Including sales taxes and duties, Exxon recorded $7.7 billion in U.S. tax costs last year, and paid even more overseas.

          Its grand total in global taxes for the year? A whopping $78.6 billion. The company’s effective income tax rate was a hefty 47%, its highest in three years.

          The Weather Channel is owned by GE, which paid NO TAX last year: http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/general-electric-paid-federal-taxes-2010/story?id=13224558#.TsXcHVbNmDQ

      2. Bill Steffen says:

        Last year, General Electric generated $10.3 billion in pretax income, but ended up owing not a penny to Uncle Sam. In fact, it recorded a tax BENEFIT of $1.1 billion! The CEO of GE is Obama’s Job Czar.

        Exxon is only the 17th biggest oil company in the world. Sixteen are bigger: http://www.petrostrategies.org/Links/Worlds_Largest_Oil_and_Gas_Companies_Sites.htm Oil companies don’t get the tax breaks that GE got. ExxonMobil in its 2009 annual report to the SEC, recorded a larger income tax expense THAN ANY OTHER U.S. COMPANY, some $17.6 billion, or 47% of pretax earnings. Exxon’s peers Chevron and ConocoPhillips likewise recorded similarly high effective tax rates.

        And I wouldn’t call an the increase in Arctic ice in the last four years “a tick or two”. It’s increased by TWICE THE SIZE OF THE STATE OF MICHIGAN!!! And look at the difference in snowcover in Asia: http://home.comcast.net/~ewerme/wuwt/cryo_compare.jpg

        From the website of the National Snow and Ice Data Center TODAY: “Average ice extent for October 2011 was 7.10 million square kilometers (2.74 million square miles). This was 330,000 square kilometers (127,000 square miles) above the average for October 2007.” That’s 127,000 SQUARE MILES!

        1. big Daddy BC says:

          The same website shows that ice area is down almost a million square miles from average. That seem okay to you? In 2007 ice was the lowest it’s been in the history of mankind.

          Here’s the actual link. They’re not popping champagne bottles open just yet. In fact, just the opposite. You’ve taken yet another quote out of context. Will the lying ever stop? You really are a corporate tool.

          http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          2007 was NOT the lowest ice extent “in the history of mankind”. Who told you that? We’ve only been keeping track of the entire icecap since 1979. Look at this from 1958-59: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/04/26/ice-at-the-north-pole-in-1958-not-so-thick/ Then there was the Medieval Warm Period: http://pages.science-skeptical.de/MWP/MedievalWarmPeriod.html Of course, all that oil up in northern Alaska is from when there was a tropical jungle up there (and somehow a diverse life survived and flourished). The truth is that the Antarctic icecap is BIGGER than average and the Arctic Icecap has grown by more than twice the size of the land are of Michigan in the last four years. No, you won’t make my utility bills “skyrocket”.

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