Next Snowfall

November 12th, 2011 at 3:08 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

     Snowman near Martin from Travis Ulberg.  Sunday AM update….warm night, holding up in the 50s with a strong south wind.  There still could be a few light showers later on this Sunday.  Looks like snow showers in the Weds./Thurs. time period as some chilly air comes across Lake Michigan.  The models aren’t printing out much of anything, but with cold air (-9.8C on the European and -10C on the GFS at 850 mb – a little less than a mile above ground) and a Lake Michigan water temperature of 47, it looks like at least snow showers, despite the relatively dry air.  Weds. and Thurs. should be chilly days.  The European takes the temperature in Grand Rapids to 26 Thursday night.   That may be a few degrees too cool with a wind off the lake and probably clouds, but it’ll be cold enough for slick spots on the roads if we get snow showers.    ALSO – temperature roller coaster in Muskegon Friday night.  The temperature at the Muskegon Airport slowly rose from 40 to 46 from 7 PM to 11 PM.  They had a SW wind off the 47-degree water of the lake.  Then at Midnight, they are 35 degrees (down 11 degrees) with a SE wind.  At 1 AM it was back to 46 (up 11 degrees) with a SW wind.  What else…it was cool in Florida on Friday…highs of 67 at Orlando and only 63 at Daytona Beach.  Also a record 7.5″ of snow at Kotzebue, Alaska, with 20″ on the ground at McGrath.  Arctic Village AK was down to -27F.  Parts of Siberia continue to be unseasonably cold.  Oymyakon has had low temperatures between -37 and -45 for two weeks straight!  The cold air from Alaska and NW Canada will sink south.  It’s going to get chilly north of a line from northern California to western N. Dakota.  It’s still not winter here in Michigan…brief cool spells is all I see in the next 10 days (that’s relative to average).   Enjoy the weekend…mid 50s with some sun on Saturday and upper 50s to near 60 and windy on Sunday with a chance of a brief light shower.

60 Responses to “Next Snowfall”

  1. Irish coffee says:

    Euro weeklies keep it mild-ish through mid-Dec… though i disagree.

    1. slim Jim(NW GR) says:

      I can see where that could happen.

  2. Jacob G says:

    With the strong jet between the cold in NW Canada and the strengthen ridge in the SE might keep us in a relative fast zonal flow for a bit with only short waves. The jet stream seems to be to strong to take in deep troughs at the moment. Once it slows down I think we may see more troughness take place across the contential US. This is one idea that WeatherBell is looking at for mid to late Jan and into Feb where things may flip around on the eastern third of the nation as the jet strenghtens again in late winter.

  3. slim Jim(NW GR) says:

    I see I have it colder then the airport once again! I am down to 29° here now.
    As for the weather for the upcoming winter. I will not say we will BUT if we stay in the set up we are now in we MAY have a warmer winter and less snow then many of the long range guesses have indicated. (remember last summer?) Not saying it will happen but it very well could. So if the pattern we are now in stays this way we would have some cold shots followed by warmer periods and if the storm track stays to our west we would get more rain then snow and if like the next system the track stays to our south we would be too far to the north and north west. Of course then late winter could be when the pattern would change and we would have cold and snow into spring. So stay tuned.

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      So far it seems a lot like last November. Then the flip came in early December.

  4. slim Jim(NW GR) says:

    BTW if it stays relativity mild until mid to late December and then we do get a very cold arctic out break watch out for some heavy lake effect snows (as happened in 2000 and 2001)

  5. INDY says:

    YEAAAA around Dec 7th we may be tracking our first snow storm as a blogger!!! End of the month still shows mid 50′s we may not see any more snow the rest of the month ….Lk temps are going down fast with all the cool nights we have had since Sept. we been cold at night heat bills are higher than last year already …. I see more system snow around our town then lk effect for Grand Rapids this winter!! Still storm track will take a more south run bloggers around the state line will be getting lots of rain, snow and moon shine this winter and it already shows with the snow the other night down around Kzzzooo and BC area skipped right over Grand Rapids and came down 5 or more inches south of us!!!! Short term I hope Penn State wins one more for Joe Pa ………From out in the cold YARDofBRICKS INDYYY!!!!

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      I just hope “Joe Pa” doesn’t enable any more child rapists, whatever the outcome of the game.

      1. INDY says:

        He never did and never will!!! It’s to bad they wanted him out!!! The bored finally got there way!!!!!! GO JOE PA!!!!!!! THANKS AGAIN WHAT U HAVE DONE FOR PENN STATE/COLLEGE FOOTBALL!!!!! INDYYY!!

        1. JoAnne says:

          He knew of a child rapist and did nothing. How would you like if if that was your 10 year old INDY? The question is what was the appropriate action and he took the worms way out. I don’t care if he was in his mid 70′s during the rape or not, he should have gone nuts over the incident and he sadly didn’t.
          Every person that heard of what happened and sat on the information should be in major trouble. think of the child, not the stupid sport. Grow a pair INDY

        2. michael g (SE GR) says:

          Your opinion on this seems to clash with your support of the tax increase for a new school building that isn’t even really needed. It’s all about the kids, remember?

          Paterno KNEW and did nothing. He chose to allow it to happen to others. He may not be legally responsible, but he is a moral failure.

        3. Dan says:

          You need to check your facts, JoAnne! Joe Pa did report the incident to his AD at the time. Do you read much? He just didn’t do enough. You said he did nothing and that is inaccurate.
          It is horrific especially for those children (all grown up now)!! My opinion, they should shut down the entire football program. Take it all down and start from scratch. First thing they need to focus on is the victims!

        4. Bill Steffen says:

          Dan is right and Joanne is wrong. Paterno did report the incident to the Athletic Director. We’ve spent a lot of time focused on Paterno. I want to know if Sandusky was the only perpetrator and who else knew about this.

        5. INDY says:

          Thanks Bill Dan Randy ….Like I said SOME PEOPLE!!! INDYYY!!

        6. JoAnne says:

          What the heck is wrong with you people. We all know that Joe reported it to the AD, but nothing was done about it. don’t try to twist what I say Bill and Dan. You both would support a man that knew about a 10 year old boy getting sodimised in the shower by a grown man because he is a coach.
          Going to the AD is doing nothing. What did Joe and the AD choose to do with the information. Understand that a head coach and the AD are tight. this is not just reporting it to the right authorities, this is choosing to do nothing. You people have no end to your twisted ways.
          Michael g, I applaud you for taking the right stand on this. Nice change of pace.

        7. Dan says:

          JoAnne: READ the post, I never said I supported Joe Pa.
          I was replying to what you said. GEEZ!

        8. GunLakeDeb says:

          I’m coming into this discussion quite late – so don’t know how many will read this? Here is a link to the Grand Jury Investigation of Sandusky (read at your own peril – it’s very graphic)

          It’s more than apparent that the coverup is HUGE and had been happening for over 15 years. While I initially wanted to strangle McCreary for not *stopping* what he witnessed – I have to applaud him for even saying ANYTHING, considering how so many others had ignored the problem for a long time. And after reading the Grand Jury Report – the person I hold most responsible (besides Sandusky) is HIS WIFE.

        9. Irish coffee says:

          I did not read the article-yet, so correct me if necessary…my thought is to go w/ your 1′st/gut instinct/impression, Deb. IF i witnessed a child rape(age 4,10,whatever) i would stop it/intervene immediately–authorities WOULD be called and perpeTRAITOR incarcerated sans excuses.He,McCreary, had a moral duty and obligation not only to intervene during commission of a crime..but to NOT sleep UNTIL justice was being SERVED…

    2. JoAnne says:

      Oh ya, quite hijacking the blog INDY, this is about snow, not men with no honor.

      1. INDY says:

        Theeee old chair is u guys back to it thanks…..GO PENN STATE!!! INDYYY!!

        1. INDY says:

          If only some of u new the facts keep watching CNN and live that america dream ……INDYYY!!!

      2. Randy (SW Walker) says:

        Holy cow, cupcake- you think you’re an expert on everything don’t you? Let me guess- divorced. Can’t understand why.

        1. INDY says:

          And all I blogged was I hope Penn State wins for JOE PA …YES Dan to many people watch the media and dont know true facts verry sad thats why America is in the shape it’s in !!! Joe Pa did not do the crime thats why he won’t do time it’s sad they wanted him out!!!! SOME PEOPLE!!! INDYY!!

        2. INDY says:

          lololololololololololololo I CAN SEEEE THAT!!! INDYYY!!

        3. Dan says:

          INDY: That is exactly what JoAnne, in all of her lack of wisdom, does. Just challenge her on the facts, then look how she/he responds. She/he will call you names, she/he has no substance or anything even close to a carefully thought out rebuttal. Wait, for this one, Big Daddy will jump in on this to HELP her out.

        4. Randy (SW Walker) says:

          Oh, he will b here- he can’t help himself. Then Joanne will get clever (with backup).
          Finally, Brad will grow a pair (with backup x 2) and the three lib amigos will be complete.

        5. big Daddy BC says:

          Sorry, Dan. But that’s a page right out the ‘Dan’ playbook. There are three of ya with barely a brain between…you, Randy, and Paul the racist. You three backwoods hillbillies troll the blog looking for someway to insert a put-down, bigoted remark, or racial insult. If I’m not on here, it’s Fixxer, Joanne, Brad, or John. And despite multiple invites to all three of you, not a one shows for a man-to-man discussion of the issues.
          Isn’t there a clan forum somewhere you guys could be more productive at, because you sure as hell don’t care about climate or weather.

        6. Dan says:

          So very typical of you, Big Daddy.
          No true substance or carefully thought out rebuttal by you or your partner, JoAnne!
          The “Dan” playbook now that does have some merit. Thanks for the compliment and for once again proving my point!
          Took the bait, Hook, Line and Sinker!
          Too bad there is no credibility to your fictitious invitation to your so called discussion. What is that about the 4th time you have brought up? Nice grasping at straws efforts.

        7. Dan says:

          If you were really that concerned, Big Daddy, you would be putting in your effort on addressing some huge issues that this country faces. Instead, you look to exploit a “so called fear” . What is it that you do again? Oh yeah, interrupt and hi jack blog threads with deception and lies.
          You claim, you know me. WOW!

        8. Randy (SW Walker) says:

          awww… What’s the matter, DB? Are you getting picked on? awww……
          sweet taste of victory….
          The effed thing about though, is you aren’t even good at being a hypocrite. Just a blow-hard lacking both style AND substance. But he wants to fight. tool. Get a life Lib.

        9. JoAnne says:

          Your hook line and sinker talk makes it look like your trying to get Big Daddy to post as much as possible, or is that a feeble attempt to save face as Big Daddy makes you look like a chump again? Personally, I think a little of both are accurate. Desperate Dan needs a friend or just a little attention.

        10. Dan says:

          It worked didn’t it, JoAnne? More name calling again from you. Is this because you truly have no other response? Is it because you do not know how to formulate a rebuttal?
          You and Big Daddy should get together on how to do this. You could learn a lot from each other. So predictable you are! You cannot figure anything out, so, you use name calling, put downs and attempts to discredit. By the way, do you have any credibility? Is this JoAnne or Big Daddy? Could be somebody with a fictitious email address. Fact is you or the Big Daddy claim to know so much about me. You don’t know SQUAT about me! Judging by your posts, you don’t know very much about anything? If you are ABLE (key word here) to disprove what I’m saying in this post, please attempt to demonstrate your knowledge. You do have some, right?

        11. Brad says:

          Randy, weird to see my name in this thread. If you have a beef with me because I have different political opinions than you do, discuss it like a man and don’t get so frustrated and angry at the big words I use.

      3. INDY says:


        1. big Daddy BC says:

          The only one dumber than Randy chimes in. LOL Put your helmet back on before you hurt yourself.

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          Changing gears…did you read this from the latest IPCC draft:

          “Uncertainty in the sign of projected changes in climate extremes over the coming two to three decades is relatively large because climate change signals are expected to be relatively small compared to natural climate variability”.


          so…maybe we don’t have to make those utility bills “skyrocket”???????

        3. Irish coffee says:

          WE don’t HAVE to make utility bills skyrocket…but “Cap and Tax” Politburo will still INSIST!! $4 MILLION of OUR tax dollars are slated to help CHINA adopt greener technology!! At least it’s not just our DEBT now that they hold — no doubt $4 million American GREENBACKS will make China even MORE green(w/ envy for even MORE).

        4. Irish coffee says:

          Speaking of SKYROCKET in flight…Bush added approx. 4.5 trillion to debt in 8 years(wayyyy too much); but Obama was able to “see” his raise and match it w/in 3 years!! At his current rate, Obama would raise the debt (+ interest)over $10 TRILLION in 8 years–as an early lame duck graduation present to our grandchildren!

        5. Randy (SW Walker) says:

          Coming from the biggest (no pun intended) jack ass on the blog, that really hurts. Stay in Battle Creek where you belong.

  6. Matthew Raupp says:

    Here in the Fairbanks, AK area we are forecasted to have highs in the teens below 0 next week….winter is coming.

  7. Shoop says:

    Bill, looks like your prediction of a early winter storm around mid November is not going to happen. Too bad I was hoping for a good early snow storm.

  8. Nathan A. says:

    How much snow Wed-Thurs next week?

    1. Barry in Zeeland says:

      23 flakes per square foot over the course of the 2 days. Smells like a winter(or fall) warning coming anytime now.

  9. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    Well we ended up having between 4 and 5 inches of snowdepth Thursday night. And if you add the inch or so we got throught the day, it may not be out of the question that we received 5″+ Thursday! We had enough heavy wet snow to snap branches on a large pine tree, and a lilac bush. And we still have patches of snow in shaded areas.

  10. Dan says:

    Any one happen to catch the familiar face on GMA? I know, Kyle posted this on FB. Ginger Zee is now the weekend weather anchor on GMA! She did such a great job at WOOD! Great for her!

  11. fixxxer says:

    This up and down pattern is pure flu weather.

    1. Mark (in Okemos) says:

      Get a shot bro.

    2. Tom in Alger Heights says:

      The up and down temps are not the reason ppl get the flu. They come into contact with the flu virus.

  12. Mike (Mattawan) says:

    Im curious… what is our chances of seeing another significant ice storm this winter like last year for kalamazoo? Cause the ice storm was really “cool” to look at but caused lots of power outages for days….

  13. Cort S. (Plymouth, NH) says:

    This will cheer up all the warm weather lovers out there:

    That cold trough in the west and warm ridge in the east is going longer into the month than I thought it would. Enjoy it. As soon as it flip-flops, winter will break loose.

  14. Mark (in Okemos) says:


  15. Vincent(N.E.Kent CO) says:


  16. matt (Spring Lake) says:

    Wow, way too much testosterone in this thread. (Note the lack of female posts) Pretty much a waste of a thread with anger and sarcasm…and not much discussion about the “next snowfall”.

    The NWS discussion sounded encouraging for the Tuesday night-Thursday timeframe for some lake effect snow. Looking forward to it!

  17. Nathan A. says:

    Five to six inches of snow the day after black Friday, according to accuweather! Normally, they under upses the snow totals, so maybe a good snowstorm over the shopping weekend!

  18. ninifere says:

    Bill, do you think there will be any accumulations overnight wednesday-thursday or will it all melt as it hits the ground?

    1. JoAnne says:

      Last night, Kyle said that 3 days out is too far to predict accumulations this early in the season! After last Thursday, I think that 1 hour out is too far too!

    2. Bill Steffen says:

      With the air coming in so dry, it would be difficult even with the good temperature contrast (lake to air) to get much out of this.

  19. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

    A couple weeks ago everyone was predicting the first real snow storm chance was this week, but that looks rather impossible now.

    In fact, I wonder if we could make it through October and November without a widespread snow event.

    I’m not counting that lake effect snow some got last week since it was isolated and GR got only an inch.

    Looking at just the high temperatures in Detroit, November’s average high has been 5.31 degrees above average through Sunday. Incredible. And CPC says it is going to continue.

    1. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

      No signs of anything major through the end of the month at this point. The last time that I can recall having a big snow event early in November was in 1995 at CMU…and also in 1991. Remember, last year we were locked in a cold, “boring” pattern through most of December and January…then got nailed in February with one big storm.

      1. GunLakeDeb says:

        I really wouldn’t mind that again…LOL! At least when the majority of snow falls in Feb – there’s a sense of “seeing the light at the end of the tunnel”. When it falls in late Nov or early Dec, you just know in your heart that it’s going to be a long winter……,

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