Lots of snow, just not here
February 1st, 2012 at 11:33 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
The first graph you can’t read, but click on the graphic or this link to Florida State Univ. to see that the Northern Hemisphere as a whole has above average snow cover at this time. The second map is a Pole view of snowcover in the Northern Hemisphere. Click on the graphic to enlarge or click here. Snow covers all of Russia, northern China back into eastern and central Europe. Very heavy snow has fallen in the Alps. The death toll is now up to 80 from the bitter cold and snow in Eastern Europe. Northern Japan has seen record snowfall. Snow covers all of Alaska and most all of Canada. The one place without much snow is the Lower 48 (mainly the North Central States across the Great Lakes and into New England). ADD: The European model run from 00Z Thursday has NO measurable precipitation out 7 days and the GFS has only 0.01″ next Tuesday. Dry and warmer than average until further notice! Cool picture here.
Melt, melt, melt…
+1
Thats ok BILL we will have above snowfall and below temps this month!!! INDYY
Right, which forecast are you looking at, the one for Moscow?
Based on what, Indy??
or March, or April, or May, or June, or July, or….
He did not indy. Quit making sprite induced forecasts.
I don’t know. The Euro ensembles are showing a split flow for next week (Per Bastardi). Things could get interesting if this holds.
wheres the sun today? how about you give us a statistic bill on how many cloudy days we have had so far. i swear this winter is mimicking 2009 as far as gloomy days.
We had 31% sunshine in January. Average is 29%. In December, we had 25% sun. The average is 22%, so we have been running slightly above average for sunshine.
sure doesn’t seem average to me. these cloudy days are a real drag.
Fixxxer: You should the confines of your apartment. You would be able to see the sun! We are running just a little bit above avg for sunshine. Do you know what that means? Why complain about the clouds?
Cause it sucks!
ahhhhhhhhhhhh!
So that’s where the long range forecast for the Great Lakes region went! Good to know it’s been located. Too bad it’s in a different location.
BILL FIZZERS BLIND!!! INDYY
Bill love it back in the 30′s today with no sun it is Winter keep it up !!! INDYYY
Last check it was 42 here.
38* out at the YARDofBRICKS!!!! INDYY
42° here
SlimJim
I’ve got 40.
yeah the weather guys sure screwed up todays forecast.
I’ve been amazed this winter at how warm our nights have been the past 2 months. Seems like over half the mornings I get up, its above freezing outside which is really odd for winter. And then this past Monday night I go outside at midnight with clear skies and half a foot of snow on the ground, you’d think it would be like 5 degrees out and it’s 50 degrees out. Even going back to last summer we had nights that just didn’t cool down, think there was a night or two it didn’t drop below 80. It’s one thing when our daytime highs hit 40, but quite odd when the night time lows don’t drop below 30. But hey, no complaints from anyone as 3 days ago we had a foot of snow for the no snow haters, and now we have NO snow for the no snow lovers!
We only had 11 days where the temp did not get above freezing in January 2012. And most lows where in the 20′s
SlimJim
The March 2011 earthquake in Japan is reported to have shift the axis of the Earth, yet no comment regarding this shift affecting weather is reported. Certainly, this planetary axis shift must change our weather experience!
I look forward to your consideration.
With January safely tucked into the record books its now time to look at February. The start of February looks to be on the warmer side of average. But if the CPC’s long range guess is right we may become near average and maybe wetter then average. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/index.php
And
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php
So there could be a chance of some colder temps and snow coming but we will have to see how it all plays out. At this time not sure where the CPC’s long range thinking is coming from!
As we enter this new month some of the things to look at
The record high for the month was 69° set not that long ago on Feb 11, 1999
The record low was -24° on Feb 13-14 1899 (not sure if it was two nights in a row or recorded before midnight and went after midnight)
The warmest average for the month was 34.3 in 1954
The coldest average for the month was 14.4° in 1978 (that was after the big snow storm)
The most snow fall for the month was not that long ago with 41.6” in 2008 (last year we had 38.2”)
The lest snow fall was recorded as being 0.2 way back in 1877 (not sure if I believe that one)
The highest wind was recorded as 64MPH on that warm day in 1999 (There was a thunderstorm that day)
And the next day (Feb 12, 1999 GR recorded 3.9” of snow!
In a so called “average” February we (GR) have a average temp of 26.8° we start the month off with a average high of 31° and a low of 18° and end the month with a average high of 38° and a low of 23°
On average we receive 14.8” of snow fall
And the sun shines about 34% of the time.
Come March 1st we shall see how February 2012 turns out.
SlimJim
Good Day,
Hey Jim! I am curious about this too. The Feb CPC has us above normal in temps…
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/
Yet the three month (Feb, Mar, Apr) is suggesting average temps and above average precip with the above average break line holding South in Central Ohio, Ill and Ind. And the below average temp break line way of West on the border of Montana and North Dakota.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/
While a bit “out there” the May, Jun, Jul CPC shows the heat buried deep in the South East which makes me think, if this holds true, that severe weather may very well also occur or stay to our SE…?
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=4
Steelie
Thanks for the link (NOT!) – I’m headed where the temps will be “below normal”: Florida. Oh goody – IMO, cold-and-damp is a lot worse than our normal cold-and-dry?
WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING…
* TIMING…SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY
EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING
FRIDAY NIGHT.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS…TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE. DEPENDING ON THE STORM TRACK…SOME
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE MORE THAN 1 FOOT OF SNOW.
* WINDS/VISIBILITY…NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH…WITH GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH EAST OF I-25. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST
OF DENVER WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE.
* IMPACTS…SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MAY MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IF
NOT IMPOSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
* OTHER IMPACTS…PETS AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE HARSH WINTER
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOVED TO A PROTECTIVE LOCATION BEFORE THE
ONSET OF THIS STORM.
“Too bad this is the forecast for Denver, CO” BRING IT ON. We need more SNOW, COLD and SNOW!! No people – winter is not over. It is just taking a little break. Get ready for multiple snow storms!!
You must be good friends of Henry Margusity of Accuweather he’s dreaming of big daddy snowstorm for the northeast, which won’t happen in this type of pattern. Ya winter is not over til March 21st and I’m sure will see snow but your type of winter is over RJ for this year nothing locking in like winters past. Sorry!
You may be correct and even though this has been the WORST winter we have had in recent history, I will not be giving up on winter and SNOW STORMS till at least APRIL. Bring on the SNOW!!!
About 60 days and winter is done rj. Then you can go golfing again.
Yes, if there is not enough snow to go snow snowmobiling I would rather be golfing!
Good Day,
I read some where that a few local golf courses are open now…
Steelie
By looking at the madden julian oscillation, the euro weeklies, monthlies, ensembles the SOI indexes (which all of these have done remarkably well this winter) and the consistent fast/strong pacific jet I can’t see how the pattern is going to change. The NAEFS forecast is now going back to pushing above normal temps. in the central U.S at the 14 day mark so there may be a cold shot coming but I really think the majority of the cold is going toward the eastern parts of Canada and the northeast. Once we get past the 14th things look to go even milder with the very fast pacific jet ramping up in the longer range forecast. Bill is right there is a cold shot coming but once looked like a significant one is now just going to be a glancing blow. Winter is not done but I really think the bulk of any prolonged staying power is going to be behind us after the mid month period, whether Phil sees his shadow or not its just going to stay milder.
The latest 18Z NAM gives us accumulating snow on Sunday!
Id like some thoughts on the spring & summer from bill pretty soon. Again i hope we dont pay dearly for this mild winter.
I would think the lack of an ice pack on Lake Michigan will have some affect on the spring storms.
I think the “Lake Michigan Storm Shredder” might lose some of its punch?? All the solar energy not used to melt ice (I think it takes extra, to convert something from its solid form to its liquid form?) will be warming the surface water. Granted, that’s a LOT of water to warm
The ice is going off Gun Lake already – there’s about 2 acres of open water on the SW corner – I’ll be kayaking in February. Haven’t done THAT in a long time…..
Bill, After a winter like we are having now what have the spring and summers been like in the past??
Good Day,
NWS/GRR is so far not in agreement with the NAM. Calling for a slight chance of snow with a high of 38 on Sunday. That is not to say it won’t change 25 times between now and then.
Fixxxer: Granted these models are perhaps way to far out there, but you can check the CPC 3 month predictions here:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/
Obviously the models are going to have difficulty this far out…
Steelie
yeah i know it isn’t accurate but it gives an idea. i hate to say it but were due for another cold summer soon.
and?
^ was replying to rj.
With all this warmth, does that mean an above normal hurricane season?
thats a good question actually.
http://news.yahoo.com/wheres-snow-not-lower-48-elsewhere-230700692.html
interesting read on the lack of cold and snow this year. i say keep the mild coming!
+1 !!
fixxx does ask some interesting questions……but he says forecasts are nill and void after a few days. Looks to me that this summer maybe a HOT one based on a mild winter. I for one am planing to get a BIG window AC. Even if I m wrong… It will eventually come into good use.
What website can show the Grand Rapids historical snowfall numbers by year or season? Or maybe just the top 10 and bottom 10?