2nd Warmest Winter Ever (so far)
February 4th, 2012 at 3:41 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
Quick note…they are rerunning the movie “Smile as big as the Moon” about the kids from Forest Hills who went to Space Camp down in Huntsville in 1989. It’s on Hallmark (channel 38 cable) if anyone is interested. Jack Martin took this picture of stairs down to the beach at Saugatuck on Friday. No ice, no snow, very little wind and a very calm Lake Michigan. That’s a pretty rare sight for the first week of February. Up to 6.8″ of snow fell across northern Indiana last night. Skies are sunny over all but the Indiana border area and they will clear this PM. Here’s the Grand Haven Beach. Wow! Look at the open water on Glen Lake. It’s sunny in the U.P. at Twin Lakes with nearly 3 feet of snow on the ground. Check out more sunny webcams here. Bill Marino (GRR NWS) came up with some interesting statistics on our warm winter. So far, this is the 2nd warmest winter to this point ever in G.R. and Muskegon and the 4th warmest in Lansing. The average temperature for G.R. has been 5.5 degrees warmer than average, topped by 1931-32, which was a whopping 8.2 degrees warmer than average. I looked back at that winter of ’31-32 and it was most interesting. The average temperature in G.R. in January was 34.2. The average for February was 31.8 (and we could beat that). Now here’s the kicker. March of 1932 had an average temperature of 28.4 degrees. WOW…March was the coldest month of the winter – a full 5.8 degrees colder than January. AND…after a rather snowless February (5.2″), they got dumped on in March (25.3″). Sixty-two percent of the snowfall that winter came in March! They were back to normal in April of 1932 and they had a relatively warm summer with lots of days in the 80s. The 00Z Saturday run of the European model backed off on the strength of the cold air on Friday. It would have temperatures cooler, but still near average (low-mid 30s) for Tuesday-Saturday. It also gives us no measurable precipitation through Friday. However, now the GFS is rockin’ cold, with afternoon temperatures around 20 for Friday and Saturday and snow showers from Thurs. through Saturday. The 00z FIM model would also have snow showers Thurs – Friday (NNW gradient, overall fairly dry air mass)…a clipper with snow mainly north of G.R. on Saturday and on the 14th, a southern system gives us some snow. Bottom line…looks like today thru Monday may be the last of the 40-degree days for awhile and cooler air for the middle of next week, with a colder shot around Friday. The long-range GFS would bring us back to normal February weather. Here’s a couple of late night tweets from Dr. Ryan Maue: “AO goes negative off the scale with GFS 00z in long-range. Devastating cold for Europe and now also with Canada.” “The current Bering Sea cold-air PV anomaly goes up and over NE Pacific ridge, then into Hudson Bay, then plunges S. “ “Extrêmement froid en France, now sub-zero temps (F), North Africa, Spain record lows.” Enjoy your weekend!
Not good news for those of us planning to plant a garden this year.
Good news if you have a trip planned to the UP to snowmobile next weekend
Bill…do the solar flares (that have been going on this year with more intensity than the past few years) have an impact on the temperature/weather?
No, but extended periods when the sun is quiet (solar minimums) are often followed by cooler temperatures on earth (Dalton and Maunder Minimums).
We just got a historic snowstorm here in Denver. 10 – 15 inches in the city, with up to 4 feet in the foothills. The storm setup was very similar to snowstorms that we would typically see in March. With how warm the country has been this winter, maybe we’re getting March’s weather this month…we’ll see.
Any models for the weekend of the 17-19?
My diesel fuel supplier who has been in the busines 30+ years says he keeps track of keep full home heating oil accounts by keeping track of heating degree days. He told me most warm winters he catches up un heating oil sales in march. He says most warm winters the months of october or march will be cold enough to average the winter out.
On a side note to cold springs my g-pa told that on may 9 the year would have between 1914-1920 him and my great g-pa plowed down 2-3 inches of snow in the afternoon. That would have took place at schoolcraft in kazoo county.
Winter is really coming in a few days, huh? WOW, we could potentially get our coldest and snowiest weather of the entire season! Fixxxer: Winter is going to arrive in a few days!
Wouldn’t that be something if this Winter averaged out in February and March with Cold and Snow? BRING on the SNOW! Did you see where we just missed a decent snowfall?
Well what does all of the data mean – it just confirms that we are experiencing on of the worst winters ever. This is the worst winter that I can remember in at least the last 30 years. Very few days with enough snow on the ground to go snowmobiling. Just a TERRIBLE winter so far!! I will agree with those of you on this blog including Kevin, Travis and fixxxer of all people, that the long range GFS has been totally worthless and almost 100% inaccurate! It is not even worth looking at and any speculation relating to the long range based on the GFS model is not even worth considering at this point. Totally wrong every single time!! What a joke.
I’m pretty sick of all the models at this point. Remember just three weeks ago when all the models were saying the start of February was going to be very cold? And here we are with temps 10 degrees above average. Anything that’s been wrong more than it’s been right this winter does not deserve much attention.
The one that has been the most reliable is the CPC, and they show no significant cool downs in the next 2 weeks. If anything, they show more mild air.
Perhaps the collective influences of those praying
to economically make it through the winter have
been most powerful…this mild weather has helped
a lot of folks save a ton of money keeping their kids
warm/fed, saved a bunch on the costs of snow removal,
and hundreds of thousands of dollars in auto insurance
claims on fender benders and worse. This is the first year
in the past 52 that I have not sat in my fish house because
of late/thin ice and I will not complain.
So God’s making the globe warm?
I’ll vote for the sun, which is looking mighty quiet for being so close to a sunspot maxima: http://www.spaceweather.com/images2012/09feb12/hmi4096_blank.jpg?PHPSESSID=pb2069f8ap8ur655hm66kldck4 You know that the Earth has cooled in the past after extended lulls in sunspot activity. http://www.popsci.com/science/article/2011-06/hibernating-sun-during-next-solar-cycle-could-chill-earth-new-forecast-predicts
So the globe is warming then? LOL Make up your mind, Old Timer.
Listen to their own words:
Maurice Strong, senior advisor to Kofi Annan, U.N. Secretary-General who chaired the gigantic (40,000 participants) “U.N. Conference on Environment and Development” in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 , who was responsible for putting together the Kyoto Protocol with thousands of bureaucrats, diplomats, and politicians, stated: “We may get to the point where the only way of saving the world will be for industrial civilization to collapse….isn’t it our job to bring that about”
Timothy Wirth, U.S. Undersecretary of State for Global Issues, seconded Strong’s statement: “We have got to ride the global warming issue. Even if the theory of global warming is wrong, we will be doing the right thing in terms of economic policy and environmental policy.”
Richard Benedick, a deputy assistant secretary of state who headed policy divisions of the U.S. State Department, stated: “A global warming treaty must be implemented even if there is no scientific evidence to back the [enhanced] greenhouse effect.”
Peter Menzies in the Calgary Herald reported thst Christine Stewart, former Canadian Environment Minister for the Liberal Party of Canada, said in 1998 that “No matter if the science is all phoney, there are collateral environmental and social benefits”
IPCC official Ottmar Edenhofer in November 2010 admitted “one has to free oneself from the illusion that international climate policy is environmental policy.” Instead, climate change policy is about how “we redistribute de facto the world’s wealth…”
Have a look at this. …Might clarify a few things for you.
http://rockblogs.psu.edu/climate/2012/01/ethical-analysis-of-disinformation-campaigns-tactics-1-reckless-disregard-for-the-truth-2-focusing-o.html
Pretty damaging quotes in my last comment. It shows this is more about wealth transfer than temperature. First Penn State tried to cover up for their precious football team and now they’re covering for Michael Mann (he of the famous “use Mike’s TRICK to HIDE THE DECLINE”) Climategate fame.
Look! “One of Europe’s coldest winters in years”: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/death-toll-rises-as-big-cold-freezes-europe-20120212-1sz6f.html
Did you read this: http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,813814,00.html Look what Dr. Vahrenholt says: “The climate catastrophe is not occurring,”
He goes on to say, “I want new scientific findings to be included in the climate debate. It would then become clear that the simple equation that CO2 and other man-made greenhouse gases are almost exclusively responsible for climate change is unsustainable. It hasn’t gotten any warmer on this planet in almost 14 years, despite continued increases in CO2 emissions.”
Read more of what Dr. Vahrenholt said here: http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,813814,00.html
I know what you mean, RJ! If we are going to have Winter then, lets have Winter. If not, lets get right over to Spring. I do think we will have some snow and cold left before we transition over to Spring.
What do you make of this from the NWS?
THE BIG STORY IN THE EXTENDED IS THE TREND BACK TO WINTER…ALTHOUGH
THERE IS THE USUAL RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY ON JUST HOW COLD IT WILL
GET. THE 00Z RUN OF THE EURO BACKED OFF ON BRINGING THE POLAR VORTEX
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES…BUT THE 00Z GFS STILL HAS THE MINUS
20C AT 850MB ISOTHERM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.
AN ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT…AND MAY BE ABLE TO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS…ALTHOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED ENOUGH NOT TO ADD POPS TO THE FORECAST YET. THIS SHOULD PUSH
TEMP VALUES CLOSER TO NORMAL. THEN A WEAK SFC WAVE RIDES ALONG THE
ARCTIC FRONT SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW
WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
I know, they haven’t been the most accurate but by all indications February could get much colder! After all, The Groundhog saw his shadow! What additional evidence do you need?
Ya at this point I am sure that the groundhog could predict the long range weather forecast as well as the experts! The NWS, ACCULESS weather and the GFS model have been inaccurately predicting cold and snowier weather for about the last 4 months and they have all been wrong, so I am having a hard time believing any of these speculations. Based on their track record they have about a 1% chance of being correct! I sure hope that we see a lot more COLD and SNOW, however every day the goes by is making it harder and harder to believe that this will actually happen!! I have not given up hope, however it getting less and less likely at this point!
I don’t know, the way my shoulders and back have been feeling the last couple days I think something is brewing within the next few days but we shall see. Can’t control mother nature but she sure is controlling us and our plans.
You left out Bill and the rest of Wood TV! I understand though, you are on Bill’s blog and questioning him or pointing out Wood’s inaccuracies would go against everything that you know.
Bill, We actually have two firsts going on here. Besides a record warm winter, you are pointing it out! Bravo Bill. It’s about time you stopped talking about a cold snowy day in Alaska to try to persuade your readers that GW is a farce. Welcome to reality.
Don’t give him too many bravos. He’s got Rush Limbaugh’s Dr. Maue quoted at the bottom of the heading. There’s always a political twist on this blog.
JoAnne – at least try and get it right – so far it’s the SECOND warmest winter for Grand Rapids (4th warmest for Lansing). We’re two degrees behind 1931-32.
Thanks for mentioning Dr. Maue. He’s got a lot of very interesting information (NASA IR temperature data – GFS model output on global temperature…)on his website and you should check it out: http://policlimate.com/weather/ Here’s Ryan’s last tweets: “Coldest possible temps during the next 8-days as forecast by GFS. Historically cold.” “Almost all Europe in deep freeze for another 8-days at least. http://policlimate.com/weather/current/gfs_t2m_eur.html No relief in ensembles thru 15-days”
Speaking of getting it ‘right.’ Maue is a regular on Rush Limbaugh and posts all over the rightist blogosphere. That’s not science. It’s politics. How about acting like a professional and using a real scientist for a change.
Maue is not a “regular” on Rush Limbaugh. I’ve challenged you to prove the times he has been on Rush’s Show and can’t you prove he was ever on the show much less that he’s a “regular”. You deceive because you can’t win on data and fact. So, you lie and tell everyone that Romney is a polygamist. He’s not a polygamist. You lied, you libeled, you bore false witness. Dr. Maue is an expert climatologist. You’re just a programmer.
I think it’s hilarious when you use biblical terminology to try and sound pious. Give us a break, Magoo, you’re a weatherman.
Romney put his dog in a car carrier, strapped it to the roof of his car and drove for 12 hours! He’s not only a filthy rich CEO mormon abortionist that made millions from federal bailouts, he’s also guilty of animal cruelty. This is who you want for president?
I love Ryan Maue’s Twitter Title: “Weather Capitalist.” Just another right-wing ideologue.
Kind of balances out the “left-wing heretic”
More name-calling, eh, Big Daddy. You lied about Romney being a polygamist and you lied about Dr. Maue being a “regular” on Rush Limbaugh. You got anything else, or just more lies. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16911417 Hundreds dying from the cold…HUNDREDS…and you want to spend BILLIONS to make it colder!
So…people dying of heat waves is OK?
Ah…don’t go to the other extreme. I do care about polar bears and about manatees, and people who are dying from all circumstances. I also care about using our (sooner-or-later-to-be-more-limited) resources wisely.
Sooner or later to be limited, Bill?
That’s the crux of it. The evangelical camp thinks we’re going to use it all up anyway, so why not just use it up now. Pump the oil. Burn it. Burn the trees. Crap in the water. Who cares? Heck, Jesus is coming anyway, right? Why preserve a damn thing for our children when the moon’s just going to turn to blood and make all this moot.
You didn’t poll “the evangelical camp”. We’re going to be limited by the massive deficits and the money we’re wasting now. Burn the trees… you’re losing it bigD – you’re hyperbole is absurd and laughable! Our children will suffer more from the massive deficits than from a VERY dubious one degree rise in temperature.
http://photos.mongabay.com/10/0827fires.jpg
Maybe you’re not aware of the fact that the South American rainforests are being burned to make room for cattle.
I wouldn’t mess with those Brazilian cows: http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_0pzwKzvSMbo/SwnpoTIo_vI/AAAAAAAAA14/oS4jimZNCi4/s1600/cow-fire.jpg
Do you care to have your own opinion on what the remainder of this Winter will do, JoAnne? You seem to continue to mention over and over again putting down Bill on his blog! Kind of like that is your obsession! All I’m saying is that gets old really fast. As far as GW goes, you say what you will always say. There still is NOT enough conclusive evidence to say that is, in fact, a reality! One above avg Winter does GW make!
Dan, I know that this is a tough subject for you. You really need to stop believing everything that is spoon fed to you by the extremists. Try doing some research yourself. Global warming is happening and every credible scientist in the field agrees. Bill doesn’t because he is a corporate arm that is being PAID to persuade the public to be confused so that corporations don’t need to pay more money or stop their profitable pollution practices. He links other false and twisted studies to support the deniers.
Follow the money Danny Boy.
Start here and try reading through this. Let me know what you don’t understand and I will attempt to help.
http://www.c2es.org/facts-figures
JoAnne: I have done a TON of research and I have debated many on here and other places. Here is the HUGE hole in everything that you MIGHT attempt to present. There HAS NOT been enough time, nor has there been enough data gathered to support global warming. The evidence is not conclusive! I’ll name a couple of them (the temperature graphs, the Co2 estimates, ice caps, etc, etc, etc)
In the most conservative of estimates, it takes 100s, and in fact, even 1000s of years to gather this evidence to PROVE the point. As for your point about following the money, I can provide an overwhelming amount of pork belly spending that has included millions of dollars directed towards inaccurate data and scare mongering techniques. Its one thing to believe something, it something else, to be completely closed minded to what is and what is not fact!
Seriously, JoAnne? Are you going to quote any information from Eileen Claussen? Need to consider that source!
Back to the original question, Joanne! Do you actually have an opinion on what may happen with the remainder of this winter season?
Seems to be that your only motivations are; to point out inaccuracies and engaging in a debate that you are really closed minded on! So, I ask you this. What happens when you point fingers at people?
Good Day,
Agreed Dan. Follow the money… Let’s see… Al Gore and Solyndra come to mind don’t they?
Steelie
JoAnne and Big daddy are skeptic plants paid handsomely by fossil fuel companies to make Climate Alarmists look like total idiots on the internet. As you can see they do their job very well.
James Hansen, the crazy old man of Global Warming, has profited hugely from his endless stream of doomsday predictions…
http://www.atinstitute.org/atis-horner-a-brief-summary-of-james-e-hansen%E2%80%99s-nasa-ethics-file/
Of course, he has to break the law to do so but it’s all for a good cause!
Enron stood to make billions off of global warming and lobbied heavily for carbon trading…
http://cjonline.com/interact/blog/reasonmclucus/2009-06-01/enrons_kyoto_protocals_for_global_warming
Why do you suppose George Soros, the comic book Antichrist, is such a big backer of organizations that push the Catastophic Anthropogenic Global Warming myth? It’s because he has one billion invested in “clean energy.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aehNEmSWfjiQ
“Clean energy” will not be profitable without massive government subsidy and artificially high fossil fuel prices.
Soros is behind “Forecast the Facts,” a site that encourages you to turn in your local TV weatherman for heresy…
http://forecastthefacts.org/
There’s a site that’s sure to be in big Daddy’s “favorites’!!
Soros probably got the idea from when he was a fourteen year old Nazi collaborator in occupied Hungary. Makes him a perfect leader for the Warmists.
Oops, should say, “One above avg Winter does NOT make GW a reality!”
And the warm winter is mostly here in the U.S. and Canada. The world as a whole is slightly colder than average today: http://policlimate.com/weather/current/raw_temp_c.html
…More rightist propaganda from Rush Limbaugh’s scientist, Maue? LOL Try again.
The data’s correct. No credible scientist disagrees with it (you’re not a scientist – programmer doesn’t count).
Maue is a political activist. He’s a kid that wants to get his name in the news. The right loves idiots like this. Credible scientists are not using his data, political activists are. Google the guy and show me where NOAA, NASA or any other scientific organization references him. Nope? LOL
HA! He’s in his low 30s (not a kid). He has a Ph.D. You haven’t proven that you’ve graduated high school, and you certainly haven’t offered any training in science. You said he was a “regular” on Rush Limbaugh, yet you can’t prove he was interviewed on the show even once! You can’t find anyone who claims the data he presents isn’t credible (so you practice “the politics of personal destruction”). I’m still waiting for you to prove that Maue is a “regular” on the Rush Limbaugh Show.
30s IS a kid and Maue’s a nobody who’s making a name with the fossil fuel block by using his PhD to sell stories. If you want to know how many times he’s been on Limbaugh, google it. He’s all over the rightist blogs spreading the word.
You said “Maue is a regular on Rush Limbaugh”. I called you for another lie and you can’t substantiate your lie. Just like you lied when you said Romney was a polygamist. That’s all you’ve got. And age discrimination. Look – two more scientists are now skeptical over global warming alarmism: http://hotair.com/greenroom/archives/2012/02/07/two-more-scientists-change-sides-in-the-agw-debate/
You said we were in a ‘time of peace.’ You also called democrats Nazis. You claim that ice volume is increasing and that the Earth is 6000 years old. Maue IS a Ditto Head AND Romney IS Mormon.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/11/10/mitt-romney-supported-sta_n_1086345.html
We had the Iraq and Afghanistan wars going on…plus Obama’s war on Gaddafi in Libya. I didn’t call Democrats Nazis…I pointed out that the 2nd of the two volumes of Hitler’s book was entitled “he National Socialist Movement” and that NAZI stood for the “National Socialist Party”. I never talked about the age of the Earth on this blog – that’s another lie (of course you’re biggest lie was that Romney was a polygamist). Romney is a Mormon but not a polygamist. Big difference. Dr. Maue has never been a “regular” of the Rush Limbaugh Show as you stated. You are a compulsive and serial liar. These people may be able to help you: http://www.dailystrength.org/groups/liars-anonymous
Oh, so now you ARE aware that we’re still fighting a war and that there’s a difference between the socialist and democratic parties? So you CAN teach an old dog new tricks. LOL
Here’s a good example of teaching an old dog new tricks: http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,813814,00.html
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/
The old POIMAS link AGAIN! You’ve put that link up 20 times and I’ve debunked it 20 times:
The Antarctic icecap has grown substantially in the past year and is now much bigger than average: http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_timeseries.png
The National Snow and Ice Data Center said that the Arctic icecap had grown by an area slightly bigger than the state of Wisconsin from Nov. 2006 to Nov. 2011.
The Himalayan glaciers have not lost ice in the last 10 years: http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/feb/08/glaciers-mountains
From the PIOMAS website: “Comparisons of PIOMAS estimates with ice thickness observations show reduced errors over the prior version. The long term trend is reduced to about -2.8 103 km3/decade from -3.6 km3/decade in the last version. ”
They had to back off their model guess by over 20% (and they’re have to adjust again in future years!). As one scientist said: “What a lovely model. If the Ice Extent data doesn’t match the model, substitute the Ice Concentration data. Now, who was it that is famous for splicing data from different data-type sets? New & Improved. I liken this to cheat codes in computer games. If you can’t win because your gameplay is inferior, simply apply the cheat codes.”
You’re not CAPABLE of debunking anything. Why would anyone trust a broadcast weatherman who hasn’t been in a college class since Kennedy was president to shed light on the workings of one of the most reputable climatological organizations on Earth, one that’s trusted by NOAA and NASA? Funny, very funny.
A 66% reduction in polar ice is nothing to bat an eye at, Bill. I realize it doesn’t quite fit with your global cooling hypothesis, but regardless, it’s real.
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/
There is no 66% decrease in polar ice. That’s nonsense, as false as when you called Romney a polygamist, or when you claimed that WOOD-TV paid no taxes. All you’ve got is lies and you look foolish. When it comes to facts, you’re as empty as the U.S. Treasury.
The old POIMAS link AGAIN! You’ve put that link up 21 times and I’ve debunked it 21 times:
The Antarctic icecap has grown substantially in the past year and is now much bigger than average: http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_timeseries.png
The National Snow and Ice Data Center said that the Arctic icecap had grown by an area slightly bigger than the state of Wisconsin from Nov. 2006 to Nov. 2011.
The Himalayan glaciers have not lost ice in the last 10 years: http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/feb/08/glaciers-mountains
From the PIOMAS website: “Comparisons of PIOMAS estimates with ice thickness observations show reduced errors over the prior version. The long term trend is reduced to about -2.8 103 km3/decade from -3.6 km3/decade in the last version. ”
They had to back off their model guess by over 20% (and they’re have to adjust again in future years!). As one scientist said: “What a lovely model. If the Ice Extent data doesn’t match the model, substitute the Ice Concentration data. Now, who was it that is famous for splicing data from different data-type sets? New & Improved. I liken this to cheat codes in computer games. If you can’t win because your gameplay is inferior, simply apply the cheat codes.”
And…another alarmist realized he was wrong: http://thegwpf.org/best-of-blogs/4867-germanys-top-environmentalist-turns-climate-sceptic.html
Another cut and paste from the master.
This study done by PENN STATE looks at the disinformation movement that people like you, Maue and Exxon-Spencer are participating in. Have a read. Good stuff.
http://rockblogs.psu.edu/climate/2012/01/ethical-analysis-of-disinformation-campaigns-tactics-1-reckless-disregard-for-the-truth-2-focusing-o.html
Here’s the truth on the ice caps: http://www.climate.gov/#climateWatch/videos
Bill can’t question NOAA, because he trusts them for much of the information he uses here. Funny they’re working hard to educated the public about climate change.
LOL! First Penn State tried to protect their precious football program and now they’re trying to protect Michael Mann and his thoroughly debunked “hockey stick”. Mann sure looked bad in those Climategate emails. (“Use Mike’s TRICK to HIDE THE DECLINE”). The guy you cite at Berkeley, Dr. Muller sure blasted Dr. Mann – said he wouldn’t even read his papers anymore!
Here’s where you can find the latest on ice:
1) Arctic ice: http://home.comcast.net/~ewerme/wuwt/cryo_compare.jpg This is a four-year comparison. Note this is less ice off NW Russia and more ice off East Russia and in the Bering Sea west of Alaska. The National Snow and Ice Data Center said that the North Polar Icecap grew by a size greater than the state of Wisconsin from Nov. 2006 to Nov. 2011.
2) Antarctic ice: http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_timeseries.png The South Polar icecap is significantly bigger than average and has grown at a near record rate over the past year. The Antarctic icecap has grown steadily since the mid 1980s: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.antarctic.png
You mean just like when they say a really bad winter makes GW NOT a reality. Cant have it both ways.
You know, I’ve gotten to the point where if I see a post from a “JoAnne” or a “BC”, I just scroll past it and read the next.
Same here, I’m sick of these politican GW debates rather then the topic at hand.
A debate on the warming vs no warming would be a good topic for debate. I would like to see a special blog for that. BUT I do NOT buy into the left vs right idea. For some reason there are blogers who want to bring all of their political ideas into a debate. IMO if you want to take pure politics then you should either 1. find a blog for that or 2. start one but do NOT call it a weather related blog.
SlimJim
I hope global warming is happening. I love the warmer weather!
It seems sometimes like our winters are changing, but the truth is weather goes in cycles – for instance: 1/1/1876 – The year begins during a three day spell of record warmth. Lansing hits 65 degrees, after setting a record of 70 degrees the day before. 1/11/1890 – Temperatures reach a record high of 63 degrees at Lansing during one of the warmest Januarys on record. 1/14/1932 – Grand Rapids is in the midst of a stretch of six days with temperatures above freezing during the warmest January on record. 1/5/1946 – Record highs are set for a second day in a row across Lower Michigan as temperatures reach the mid and upper 50s. 1/17/1952 – Temperatures rise to record highs of 61 degrees at Battle Creek, 59 degrees at Lansing and 56 at Grand Rapids. 1/8/1965 – Temperatures soar to record highs of 59 degrees at Grand Rapids and Lansing and 55 degrees at Muskegon. 1/18/1996 – A blizzard moving through the Dakotas pulls warm air up over Michigan. Record highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s are followed by a line of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms. For the past 100 years – http://www.crh.noaa.gov/grr/history/?m=1
One item to always take into consideration when looking at Michigan’s weather/climate is that we are half way between the equator and the north pole. There is generally a good supply of cold dry air to our north and warm moist air to our south. With the jet stream running across the country there are big buckles in that stream from time to time. So that we can either be much warmer or much colder then at other times.
Now looking at the 30 year trends we are now (in GR) warmer in the “new 1980-2010” 30 year average then we were in the “old 1970-2000” 30 average in all of the 12 months. But even then looking a running average of the 30 year trends. So like you said the climate runs in cycles and there have been times when its been warmer then now and times when its been colder then now. (also wetter and dryer and of course snowier and times of less snow)
SlimJim
Ah look, a Big Daddy sighting on the blog. What happened, Big Daddy? Were you banned from the “save the polar bears blog?” How about Co2 emissions and the green house effect, banned there also, huh? Can you believe the context of Big Daddy’s quote? Knew it was just a matter of time, especially when GW and politics are mentioned!
Make no mistake about it, the motives are clear. Lets take a quick straw poll! Since polling data is relied on so heavily, especially during this time of the year. Does anybody actually believe Big Daddy or JoAnne?
A 1000% NO!!
It’s not really an issue of if I believe them or not…I just could not possibly care less. Don’t get me wrong, I’m conscious of global warming…everytime I contribute my piece to it I get a warm fuzzy that maybe I’m helping fixxer’s quality of life increase. I have a theory though, that there’s way too many people on here who all have the same best friend…who’s named Marvin.
I have read evidence from both sides and it boils down to what your party affiliation is unfortunately. Republican, don’t believe. Democrat, probably do. One piece of evidence for it that I looked at were ice drill cores which showed through the last 10k years or so that the greatest rise in global temps also coincided with the rise of greenhouse gases either from volcanic activity or from fossil fuel burning. They showed a graph which showed a very steep rise in both at the start of the industrial revolution. So I guess maybe I am somewhat of a believer because the science doesn’t lie. Who knows…
Next to a giant asteroid splitting the Earth in two…..I m willing to bet this planet will be here loooong after we are gone. It will evolve and adapt just as it has for billions of years, so to argue about GW or cooling is pointless. If you wanna think your a hero by using energy saving bulbs I guess thats fine. You can now die with a clean conscience. Congrats.
I agree with you, long after man is gone the Earth with still be here and life of some kind will also still be here.
SlimJim
I agree with you Skot. If anything, I’d like to see some emission controls not to fix GW, but to just clean up the air.
I’m just happy that someone responded to the sycophant Dan’s straw pole. I worry about that guy. He’s so desperate to win Bill’s approval.
Skot, you’re ignorant. On one hand you see the value of a collective as a tool to leverage a decent wage and working conditions from the corporations of this world, but on the other, trust them to give you straight talk on issues that are even more precarious for them, the effect of pollution on climate. Pull your union head out of your a$$ and read a book.
Yeah, read this book: http://www.amazon.com/Great-Global-Warming-Blunder-Scientists/dp/1594033730/ref=sr_1_4?ie=UTF8&tag=wattsupwithth-20&s=books&qid=1271759263&sr=1-4
The long range has been showing a snowstorm on the 14th i believe for quite a while now
At this point their full of it.
Give it a day or two and this storm will not even show up on the models and for that matter most of the long range cold air will probably not materialize either! This pattern is downright disgusting!
God almighty it feels like late april. LOVE IT BILL…keep it coming!
I just hope summer dont suck?
Dont know about late April but will say its a nice mid March like day!
SlimJim
Seriously i wish every winter day was like today.
I find this winter day to be absolutely HORRIBLE! Where is the COLD and SNOW? Bring it on.
ditto
regarding fixxxer’s comment…
I agree with fixxxer on this one, I don’t miss the snow but on Christmas, just doesn’t seem like Christmas without snow. But I think we’ll pay dearly next winter, mother nature will make up for lost time, and we could see the winter Europe is having next season, just a funny feeling.
This Winter has really passed us by. Maybe next year, we will make up for it.
Winter passing us by is a GOOD thing in my mind. Bring on spring and severe weather!!
Lovely day. Sunshine and no snow to shovel.
Almost as good as another day in heaven.
SlimJim
I just got back in from a nice walk outside. Its really nice being able to walk outside in the winter and still enjoy it. I know there are some identities on this blog that feel bad about the warmer winter we have had but being a true weather nut I find this winter as interesting as if it were cold and we were getting record amounts of snow. So in the long run I would like to have GR break the record warmth that was recorded back in the winter of 1931/32 because short term history is being made!
Right now there is brilliant sun shine and I have a nice warm temp of 46° But I have to say I still think we will see one or more snow events this winter yet and of course it very well may be March when that happens.
SlimJim
I would like a good snowstorm, but I enjoyed the clear skies and sunshine today. I am not a fan of endless clouds if it’s not raining or snowing to go with them. I spent some time outside and am hoping tomorrow will be sunny as well. Sunshine puts me in a great mood!
A bunch of warm weather nuts on the blog today! Bring on the SNOW and COLD!
This weather is simply awesome! Best winter that I can ever remember!
So true -
Hear, Hear, Best winter ever… get to go outside and get lots of runs in. I’m loving it!
Well Euro went back to its mild bias again and I now see the GFS has absolutely no storms on the maps and they both look pretty bone dry. Elliot Abrams of Accuweather did a video special on the weather the next two weeks for the midwest and northeast and basically says that most of the models show no big storms and the cold air is going to be transitory in nature. I do see things getting closer to normal and maybe some lake effect but nothing thats really going to change this pattern a whole lot. The 12z gfs (for whats it worth although does agree with the longer range euro) has the 540 line in central canada around the 14th. Whats amazing is that the NWS in Grand Rapids is pushing colder and maybe lake effect snowier but this pattern people is going to be transitory as has been all winter. Today is the last day of solar winter and Feb. 5th is the day the sun angle will start doing its work on the atmosphere. I just don’t see alot of staying power with any type of cold air mass more than 3 days and as the sun will modify the atmosphere and these cooler outbreaks from now on and as everyday goes by its just a less and less chance of winter really sticking around. Sorry RJ and whoever but this winter I guess will just go down in the books as the 1st or 2nd warmest on record. The long range Euro model which has done good all winter long is predicting a cool down after wed. and lasting to about the 13th only to be replaced by another milder pacific pattern and thats the way this pattern has been all winter. The long range canadian and euro both say milder than average even with this polar vortex coming over hudson bay its going to be to far north and the pacific air will win again. Probably next year will be measuring the snow from top of the roof. Oh well just get out and enjoy these nice days people….
Never heard the term solar winter before… Is that the 3 or 4 months of the year in which the angle of the sun is the lowest?
Possibly the WORST WINTER IN HISTORY! Absolutely horrible!
Does this mean you are declaring the Winter that never really got started, over? The 2nd half of February not looking to trend cooler/colder?
I do hope we will see a couple of snow storms before Winter is over!
The more and more this pattern stays entrenched, the more difficult it is for Winter to even make its presence felt. We will pay for this mild weather in another Winter. You better bet! Mother Nature has a way of balancing things out! C’mon snow you can give us a few storms to enjoy, even if it is for a day or two!
*cricket* *cricket*
http://climatedepot.com/a/14661/Read-All-About-it-Al-Gores-melting-Antarctic-claims-refuted-by-reality–Climate-Depots-AZ-Global-Warming-Report-counters-Gore
http://thenewamerican.com/usnews/politics/10538-romneys-skeletons-his-bain-capital-received-millions-in-bailouts
http://althouse.blogspot.com/2012/02/most-recent-rasmussen-poll-has-santorum.html
So now it’s Santorum? How quickly you jump ship. What happened to all that Romney talk? LOL It doesn’t matter which rightwing hypocrite you put up, unless they’re moderate, they don’t stand a chance. Your day has passed. We won’t be fooled again.
http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2011/07/24/opinion/sunday/24editorial_graph2.html?ref=Sunday
I’m for fixing the disgraceful national debt that you guys are running up to pay for Cowboy Poetry Festivals, Bed Sheet Police, Solyndra (half a billion down the rathole, while the 1-percenters that were Obama’s friends got all their money back), and snow cone machines from Homeland Security.
Germany’s turning away from global warming alarmism and the regressive policies of alarmist activists that would hurt the poor and middle class: http://thegwpf.org/best-of-blogs/4867-germanys-top-environmentalist-turns-climate-sceptic.html
Germany’s the wind farm capital of the world.
So now you’re accusing the democrats of being in bed with the 1%. LOL Next thing you know, you’ll be occupying GR. LOL What a fool.
Speaking of Germany, did you see this: http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,813814,00.html Yet another scientist that’s seen the folly of climate extremism. Germany’s gone to reliable coal for the extra heating demands of this harsh, frigid winter: http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Germany+forced+into+coal+power+reserves/6125777/story.html
Driving around the last couple days I have noticed flight birds making there way back north. Also noticed today common house flies and bees are out. Skunks and coons making there rounds. Dare I say spring is right around the corner?
BORING WEATHER. WE NEED ONE MORE SNOWSTORM THEN I’M GOOD
LET’S GET THE SPRITES OUT AND WATCH THE SUN GO DOWN………..INDYYY
So this is the 2nd warmest winter ever and it took 80 years to see it? Well I certainly am glad I was here to experience it because another 80 years will put me at 130 and I don’t think I’ll live quite that long!
…nor would want to I m betting.
what is least amount of snow Mi ever recorded for a year? I know Owosso area has only had 10 in so far this yr
For Grand Rapids it was 20″ in 1905-06. More recently, we had 35.9″ in 1982-83. That year, the snowiest day of the winter was the first day of spring, and we had over a foot of snow between March 20 – March 29.
thanks is there any mid michigan data? I have a college professor asking me.
Go to intellicast.com…click on historical and you’ll get a few decent graphs.
Sorry, enter the zip code of wherever you’re looking at, then click on Historic Averages.
Thats 10 runs in a row on the GFS showing the snowstorm on the 14th looking WAYYY better then it did earlier this year. Alot more consistant!
I hope the one comment about having to shovel snow on May 2 doesn’t happen again. If it does the horticulture industry will take a major hit, which would be bad for Michigan. Michigan is the 3rd largest producers of bedding plants in the nation. A snow that late would devastate other crops in Michigan, too. If you add that to the bad year for ski resorts, we better pray there is not a repeat. We need a spring that is drier than the last 2 and 5-10 degrees warmer.
Mother Nature is sure confused! I was out on a walk with the dog this afternoon and there are spots on the sidewalks from where the maples are dripping sap already! I was beyond surprised to see that!
While I can live without the snow, I can only imagine what sort of agricultural impact these warm temps will have…and how that will probably translate into higher prices at the store.
Hey Bill – with this winter having been so warm, do you have any ideas how our spring and summer will be this year? I’m a little concerned…..
Sat was a great day for the 4th of Feb. Sunny and 46°. No snow on the ground except for a few places. Can’t beat it. It felt like a late March day. Seen my 1st dead skunk in the road 3 days ago. Winter is toast,so bring on Spring!! Tonite is really nice and clear out for checking out the sky. Looks to be a 3/4 full moon in the NW. Frosty and 28.2°.
Since it annoys RJ I’ll chime in with “LOVE THIS WEATHER – KEEP IT UP”
Howz that?
Today is going to be even better then yesterday! LOVE IT!! Having a very late thanksgiving dinner today with family since my husband is home for his R&R before he heads back next Saturday the 11th so what a beautiful day this is, he’s enjoyed this weather, instead of seeing sand and gray, he can see different colors, not like spring or summer, but still he sees the grass, the green pine trees,ect. It’s been awesome this weekend.
Bunch of WARM WEATHER NUTS!
LOL proud of it!
yep…best way to roll -
Bill is a good guy and a credit to his profession and our community. He is a science geek, not a crystal ball carrying psychic. As he said, he deals in facts, not high school gossip and childish arguments. The voracity of any argument is open to challenge but it should be done on the basis of other relevant facts backed up by scientific evidence. Make a good argument with facts. Don’t blurt out your own version of the truth based upon no solid evidence. This only wastes our time and makes you appear clueless. And, since Bill is human, he is capable of misinterpreting the data. Weather is a volatile phenomena and can change on a dime. Keep in mind there are governments around the world (white papers are available to prove it with patents, etc) affecting weather using weather modification techniques. This makes an already unstable phenomena more chaotic. Please bring educated arguments to the table. Save the slander and vitriole for the leaders of our government who are quickly removing our Constitutional freedoms one by one, while many of you are distracted by Hollywood and the Super Bowl. That is a fight worth engaging!
I agree with a lot of what you said, but Bill is no science geek. He’s a political activist. Science geeks actually value science.
I have a degree and you don’t. You are the political activist – all those links to Think Progress and the SEIU bulletin. Speaking of scientists: http://hotair.com/greenroom/archives/2012/02/07/two-more-scientists-change-sides-in-the-agw-debate/
You have no idea what kind of degrees I have, so don’t pretend. I endeavor to use only nonbiased links, but lets be realistic here. Just about every source for your twisted political position is funded by Exxon, the Koch brothers, or R. Murdoch. BTW, sorry to hear that your rich mormon hero lost the last two. Look at this way, he’ll have more time to spend with his three wives if he loses.
If you had some credibility, you’d offer it. But mostly you give us links from far-left Soros-funded websites like Think Progress.
When and where? My sites are NOAA, NASA, and Berkeley.
http://www.climate.gov/#climateWatch/videos
Yours are Exxon Spencer, Limbaugh’s boy – Maue, and FOX NEWS. Go back and look. You site right-wing sites in almost every post.
Judith Curry of the BEST group at Berkeley said: ‘There is no scientific basis for saying that warming hasn’t stopped,’ she said. ‘To say that there is detracts from the credibility of the data, which is very unfortunate.’
Here’s where you can look at lower troposphere temperatures from NASA/NOAA and you can see they had held steady for the past 10 years: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/msu/global/lt/dec NOAA also reported that 2011 was the 3rd coolest year out of the last 12.
Third coolest, lol. You’re funny in a sick way. It was the ninth hottest year in recorded history and you pin the word ‘cool’ on it? Climate change is less about total temperature and more about the effects that temperature has on climate. It’s about the redistribution of water, which we’ve seen. Last year was the second wettest in recorded history while a record drought devastated the southern US. The ocean is well above average and record snows are falling all the while Michigan is enjoying the warmest winter ever! Go back to school and learn something. You’ve been out of the loop for far too long, old timer.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/01/090113101200.htm
This is what Global Warming Alarmism is really about:
Listen to their own words:
Maurice Strong, senior advisor to Kofi Annan, U.N. Secretary-General who chaired the gigantic (40,000 participants) “U.N. Conference on Environment and Development” in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 , who was responsible for putting together the Kyoto Protocol with thousands of bureaucrats, diplomats, and politicians, stated: “We may get to the point where the only way of saving the world will be for industrial civilization to collapse….isn’t it our job to bring that about”
Timothy Wirth, U.S. Undersecretary of State for Global Issues, seconded Strong’s statement: “We have got to ride the global warming issue. Even if the theory of global warming is wrong, we will be doing the right thing in terms of economic policy and environmental policy.”
Richard Benedick, a deputy assistant secretary of state who headed policy divisions of the U.S. State Department, stated: “A global warming treaty must be implemented even if there is no scientific evidence to back the [enhanced] greenhouse effect.”
Peter Menzies in the Calgary Herald reported thst Christine Stewart, former Canadian Environment Minister for the Liberal Party of Canada, said in 1998 that “No matter if the science is all phoney, there are collateral environmental and social benefits”
IPCC official Ottmar Edenhofer in November 2010 admitted “one has to free oneself from the illusion that international climate policy is environmental policy.” Instead, climate change policy is about how “we redistribute de facto the world’s wealth…”
This is the current global ocean sea-surface temperature departure from average: http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2012/anomnight.2.9.2012.gif The global sea-surface temperature is quite average…there’s a lot of blue (cooler than average) water on that map.
2011 was the 3rd coolest year out of the last 12. Global temperatures are NOT increasing: http://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/trend-24.png
Here’s another prominent scientist who was an alarmist and now has become a skeptic. He says “I was duped”: http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,813814,00.html
My best to “Occupy Delton”
…More crap from the Campaign of Misinformation! Penn State did a nice work up on why people like you are lying to the public. It’s interesting. Have a read.
http://rockblogs.psu.edu/climate/2012/01/ethical-analysis-of-disinformation-campaigns-tactics-1-reckless-disregard-for-the-truth-2-focusing-o.html
My post above is exact quotes! Read them again! BTW, I do believe in Mann-made global warming: http://www.spectator.co.uk/melaniephillips/3332616/that-famous-consensus.thtml
Bill, Does having a larger area of open water in Lake Michigan increase chances of lake effect snow for us at all either during the rest of February or in March?
Thanks for your blog updates, I love to read your posts and I always find them informative, interesting and helpful.
Usually most of the lake is open water in February. A bigger factor might be that the lake is still at 40 degrees, so if we ever do get a good lake-effect situation, the lake may behave more like December than February, when the water temperature is usually about 33F.