Tuesday Evening
February 21st, 2012 at 12:49 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
Tues. 6:55 PM - I just had half a paczki. Still a few light showers/sprinkles. Those will be exiting to the east by around midnight. There could be a snowflake or two mixed in from Mecosta County to the north. We’ll be partly sunny tomorrow, especially south of G.R. Temperatures will be in the low-mid 40s tomorrow and near 40 at Lake Michigan. The colder air arrives with snow showers from Friday into Monday with at least 1-3″ (it’s conceivable that it could be as much as 2-6″ total) and the ground should be white. Saturday will be a cool day. While this has been a tougher winter for ski areas, Saturdays have been one of the best if not the best day of the week. This Saturday will be cool (maybe low 30s) and with a little natural snow and the chance to make snow, most resorts should have decent skiing/tubing/boarding this weekend. Here’s links to the current conditions, regional radar, the forecast snowfall off the NAM model (out to 84-hours) and the GFS model (out to 120-hours), the HPC snow forecast, and a surface map. Here’s the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s closings, the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station.
Nationally, 10″ of snow fell at Greenville VA, with several inches all the way down to Gatlinburg TN and an inch at Raleigh NC. Fredville KY reported 8″ of new snow. Much of the country remains warmer than average. It was warmer in S. Ste. Marie on Monday than it was in SE Kentucky. It stayed in the 60s in Orlando, the 20s in Cheyenne, WY. What could be the coldest air of the season is on the way for the Pacific Northwest, though with the trough in the West, cold air intrusions into the Great Lakes will be relatively short-lived (a couple-three days).
Good morning, Bill! I have a couple questions?
1) What is causing this pattern to be so stinking persistent? What has been causing the Pacific Jet to just roar for months on end?
2) Why do all the lows heading towards us continue to weaken?
3) Can you bring summer along because I’m SICK of waiting for this winter to arrive.
I don’t know if I have an answer to your first question. Wish I did. The pattern has been consistent here in the Great Lakes…lots of mild, Pacific air and only brief incursions of Arctic (or semi-Arctic) air. That hasn’t been the case elsewhere. Alaska has flip-flopped from bitter cold to warm and back to bitter cold (now warm again). The cold built across much of Europe and Asia. This winter has kind of baffled us…we haven’t seen this persistent pattern during a La Nina. We have had the above average precipitation from E. Texas to New York. We’ve actually had above normal precipitation here. It’s just that it’s been too warm for all snow.
We’re often in between jets…so systems can’t intensify or they are out of sync.
Summer’s still a long way off. It’s still February. The average temperatures start upward at a more rapid rate by mid-March…we often see our first 70-degree day in March and our first 80-degree day in April.
I’m wondering now about the severe storm season and rather we are going to see anything here in Western Michigan or if it will all be SW & SE lower. At class in Muskegon they were talking about the Ring Of Fire or the fact that the severe outbreak happens basically like the pattern last year where 1wk we are bitter cold to the following week very warm, but with these consistant above average there really is nothing to build on is there? Or am I misunderstanding it all?
It remains quiet. I’m waiting to see if we get rain, snow, and or a mix.
Looks to be coming across the Lake right now!
Winter shows up for a return visit this week!
Bring it on!
No it doesnt.
The maple trees gave me enough sap yesterday to start cooking my second batch of syrup.:)
It is kind of neat to see sap come out of a tap and freeze instantly on the bottom of the bucket.
The town of Shepperd which is between M 46 and M 20 has a Maple syrup festival and they have most of not all of the maple trees tapped in town. I am not sure if its early then normal or not!
SlimJim
44 today, 45 tomorrow, and 43 Thursday over here… another very mild week for a very mild February.
Downhill skiing has been absolutely horrible in Southern Michigan this year. Primarily man made snow and temps above freezing = AWFUL conditions. Gotta be the worst season in a loong time. Same with ice fishing, snowmobiling, and cross country skiing.
Good Day,
Over the past weekend a buddy had a snowshoing outing planned. It became a hike instaed as there was no snow! Hehe…
Steelie
Downhill skiing has ALWAYS been awful in southern Michigan, largely due to the lack of downhills.
Ice Fishing…I wish! The freezer is empty!
What a great time to think about spring becouse this week’end is going to feel like Mid Jan. with below temps and lk effectt snow !!! Getting close to open the ice cream shop in Lakeview Michigan I hope u bloggers stop up this summer and have a Bill flurry …..INDYYYY
Do you work there Indy? My dad has a cottage on Townline lake just outside of Lakeview. We’ll have to stop by and say hi sometime.
yeaa I am going to help out at the shop! It’s my brother in laws place going to be a fun summer … I am going to come up with a Bill flurry from all u guys on the blogg we are going to decide what it should be!! More on that later stay tuned!! INDYYY
Sounds cool. I will be sure to stop by and order one. We were actually going to the cottage this weekend, but we really don’t want to end up on the news as the next people to crack through the ice on our snowmobiles so we cancelled. Last year we had to cancel because there was to much snow we couldn’t even get to the cottage.
I used to make sprite floats using sherbert.
It’s been all snow here since about 7:30…but just enough to whiten the ground. Looks like it is almost over.
FAT TUESDAY!! ALL U CAN EAT AND DRINK!!!! INDYYY
Right now, it’s snowing harder here than I’ve seen it all winter. Absolute white out with huge flakes.
Agreed! I-94 is closed in Ann Arbor, very icy.
Talk about a quick couple of inches! Not that it matters, it will all be melted in a couple of hours…
We only have a coating here…you guys got more snow than us??? Shocker! It’s only happened about every time we’ve had a storm system for the past 3 years. Have a good day!
haha probably a good 2″ or so. That’s some big flakes considering it started snowing at 930.
WOW! IT SNOWS! INDY!
Go East Indy
BIG SNOWS COMING THIS WEEK!!! WINTER IS BACK!! INDYYY
Yeah right….. I like your enthusiasm, but this winter was done before it even started!
Back from last winter?
Wolf!
Good one D.A…….
The 12Z GFS shows a decent snow storm over mid-Michigan. My guess it is wrong, as the NAM does not show any of this, and this is the first run of the GFS to show this storm.
GFS Has been showing this for a full week now
NWS mentioned the possibility of a significant eastern storm this weekend, but I’m assuming that means east coast?
Well the models show a decent snow storm for Monday.
Snow to rain and back to snow for us on that one….according to the GFS. We’ll see. Still no big storms all winter. Crazy.
No it means from Eastern Ave eastward. Look out KENTWOOD!
If you live between Alma and Mt. Pleasant….stock up on your supplies now. Bullseye (insert sarcasm)!!!!
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=GRR
Above Normal Tornado Amounts Expected in 2012:
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/abovenormal-tornadoes-expected-1/61631
The article mentions Michigan.
The big thing about West Michigan and Tornados is we do not have much flat land around here. South and West yes. Not much motivation and time to get an F2 or higher. It can happen of course if the track is right, but ……
CPC Showing Heavy Snow for MI in the 3-7 outlook
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png
That was put out yesterday at 3pm….should be getting an update on that shortly. That map looks like something Sonny Elliot would have made up…for those that grew up on the east side years ago.
lol ya
Sonny Elliot was the best! Whatever happened to him?
I used to enjoy listening to Sony Eliot! He was excellent. He always made up funny, weather descriptive words!
BIG SNOWS Coming our way! WOO HOO! Winter is coming back! Get READY Bloggers!
Sonny Eliot is either 85 or 86 and totally retired now. He was a B-24 bomber pilot and was a prisoner of war…an amazing life. (My father also flew in B-24′s during WWII). His real first name is Marvin. I remember him saying “the sky is as empty as a drive-in at noon.
Good Day,
Yup… now say no “heavy” snow for us. It is off to the Northwest in Minnesota and Wisconsin for the most part.
Steelie
Im seeing 50′s by months end. Im thinking march will be mild as well.
Oh yeah…the “gloom & doom” today kinda sucks. We get alot of that here.
Below temps high snow falls and winter get ready Bill’s bloggers crank up the heat play out in the street ..ABOVE NORMAL SNOW FALL COMING TO WEST MICHIGAN!! GET YOUR LIST NOW!!! INDYYY
This sounds encouraging for Winter lovers!
THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL TRANSITION OVER TO A BIT OF LAKE EFFECT THEN
FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO HOLD ITS
GRIP OVER THE REGION. H850 TEMPS WILL BE DOWN AROUND -10C TO
-12C…JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. SOME OF THE NW
FLOW FAVORED AREAS COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OCCUR
INTO SAT. THE UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW WILL THEN LIFT OUT AS UPSTREAM
SYSTEMS FORCE THE ISSUE.
MODELS ARE COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE
STRONGER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE LATER IN THE WEEKEND. THE
TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD THE EURO WHERE ENERGY DIGS A BIT BETTER ACROSS
THE SW U.S. AND FORCES BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE STATE SAT NIGHT AND
SUN. WE WILL THEN SEE ENERGY EJECT OUT OF THE SW TROUGH…AND
INITIALLY BRING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE
SUN. WARMER AIR WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE AREA…BUT THE AMOUNT OF
WARM AIR IS IN QUESTION DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEMS.
WE BELIEVE THAT WE SHOULD SEE PCPN CHANGE OVER TO SOME LIQUID AHEAD
OF THE LOW SUN NIGHT/MON. A STRONG SHOT OF COLDER AIR SHOULD THEN
FOLLOW ONCE THE MAIN LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. WE HAVE REMAINED
CONSERVATIVE WITH THE WARMTH AND RAIN FOR NOW. DETAILS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE IRONED OUT AS BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED AMONGST THE MODELS.
We shall see, that is all it’s been this winter a wait and see, more wait and wait and wait rather then a see it event.
Yes, this confirms what a few us have been saying for the last few days now. We will be transitioning into a winter weather pattern starting this weekend and lasting into March! Ya baby bring on the SNOW, COLD and more SNOW!! Gotta love it!. Get ready to ROCK N ROLL GR!!!
You mean what you winter nuts have been saying for months now
Hardly transitioning to a winter weather pattern when I’m seeing plenty of 40′s next week…
Like I said winter is not over contrary to what the warm weather nuts have been saying for weeks now!
One home run after 68 strike outs is not very good… if that even happens.
WE ARE WEST MICHIGAN WE ARE BILL’S BLOGG!! INDYYY
Yes, I know Swatz! As we have said earlier, its been a very unusual Winter.
What does your Bodometer tell you about what may be coming up weather wise?
Seems to be fairly accurate! Wouldn’t it be something if this Winter came on like gang busters in March? WOW!
LOL, I don’t want to come a cross as someone full of $hit, but it’s whispering to me, but all depends sometimes I feel it 2-4 days out. I didn’t really feel it for today, usually when it’s going to be a big event I really hurt, if it’s going to be just a fly by night system where you can’t really see much of anything, maybe a twing here a twinge there, which I’ve been having, nothing where I need motrin or heating pad. I just hope the severe storm season isn’t like this. I’m like you when it comes to thunderstorm season, I am not happy when I miss the big ones. So I feel your pain and disappointment, that is why I said I hope the severe storm season isn’t like this winter.
Dan we will end up with above snow fall and Below temps for Feb Mar.. Everbody loves a warm winter West Michigan is going to pay!! BRING IT ON!! INDYY
Ya lets sock it to all of the WARM WEATHER NUTS that have been posting comments for about the last two weeks like this:
Winter is over!
There will no more snow storms!
No more accumulating snow!
Spring is here!
We will be getting thunderstorms not more snow storms!
Bring on the COLD and SNOW!!
I haven’t been saying winter is over, I to think Mother nature has something up her sleeve before it’s all said and done. She will have the last laugh one way or another, either at us warm weather thunderstorm loving folks being wrong and winter isn’t over, or the winter weather nuts and winter is over. In the end, as I said she will be the last one laughing at one of us groupies for being wrong. LOL!
I could name a few!!!! INDYYY
YEAAA the warm lovers will be eating it just like I have had 7 paczki’s today snow and cold is on thee way…INDYYYY
I hope the “nuts” are already satisfied with this winter wherever it goes from here.
Seriously if you had 7 paczkis today then you would be in the hospital with a heart attack. One paczki is the same as eating a quarter pounder without cheese, it’s just insane!
WINTER IS COMING 37 MORE INCHES FOR BILL TO HIT HIS 89 INCES WEST MICHGAN CAN DO THAT! INDYYYY
Yes when we get a couple snow storms over the next couple weeks it will be in range! Bring it on!!
You two are loons.
SWATZZEEEE IS READY!! INDYYY
READY FOR THUNDERSTORMS & “RIDING THE STORM OUT” with the bloggers as we watch the “CRAZY TRAIN” of storms coming and breaking the bubble! I know fixxxer, wishful thinking.
Good Day,
The CPC is still showing warmer than average for the 30 and 90 day outlooks.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
Steelie
LOL that is always subject to change, it’s pure Michigan.
Good Day,
It could… but it has been pretty consistent on this prediction for a while now…
I think Kevin may be correct and the SE ridge wil be building strong very soon.
Steelie
Paczki’s watch out for West Michigan!! INDYY
Paczki watch today – Winter Weather Advisory for this weekend and a Winter Storm Watch next week!! Ya baby – winter, COLD and SNOW!
Let the good times roll, let them knock you around! SNOW, SNOW and more SNOW! WINTER is coming for the last weekend in February on into March!!! Big SNOW STORM on the horizon! The Paczki Polish Winter, no disrespect intended at all!
Heck no I have 4pds of Kilbasa going 2 dozen Paczki’s that I am eating and a 30pk of beer tonight enjoying a nother Polish Holiday !!!! Getting ready for the storm ….Ohhhh and i have the music cranked!!! INDYY
Dang how do you do it!? Just reading that is giving me major heartburn!
Burp!!
What will you name the ice cream, Indy? The Bill’s Bloggers Blueberry Blackberry Butterfinger Bar! All I could think of at this time!
We need to come up with a cool weather name with Bill in it ..And yes we need to come up with a kind of ice cream for it!!! INDYYY
heeheehe, ol aunty edna ran to town today to load up on the paczkis this mornin. i get a real craven for those just after our mid day smoke. lookin cold this comin weekend in the back woods. mmmmmm just started into a raszberry paczki. tasteey reeal nice. ol aunty edna is laughin at my broken disco ball.
WOW! I think a lot of winter lovers over loaded on sugar today, lol.
That’s because the paczkis are comfort food for all the sad, depressed winter lovers…
Oh yeaaaa uncle sparky is normal eating paczki’s with aunty Edna in the backkkkkkk woodsss!!! INDYYY
Stephens Savory Snowberry Season Supreme.