Winter Storm Watch
February 22nd, 2012 at 5:53 pm by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
10:40 AM – Still some pockets of dense fog south of G.R. at 10 AM. Here’s current conditions. 12Z data starting to come in. Here’s Caribou snow forecasts (keep in mind this model is occasionally too high with amounts). The first number is snow from the low pressure center and the second number is lake-effect that follows Fri. night and Sat. AM, unless it all blends together, then you have just one number: Grand Rapids 6.3″ + 2.6″ (it doesn’t start until around 9-10 PM on the Caribou Tool), Holland 5.5″ + 5.3″, Lansing 8.5″ +0.9″, Mt. Pleasant 5.0″ + 0.3″, Muskegon 5.3″ + 3.6″, Cadillac 3.1″ total, Kalamazoo 10.2″ total, Ludington 4.4″ + 3.1″, Big Rapids 4.7″ + 0.1″, S. Haven 9.4″ total. Areas south of town have a brief rain mix for a while. The National Weather Service continued the Winter Storm Watch for the entire GRR County Warning Area and the midday shift will more than likely upgrade at least some counties to a warning. There is also a Winter Storm Watch for SE Michigan and for Northeast Illinois and it’s a Winter Weather Advisory for much of southern Wisconsin. For W. Michigan the Watch is for precipitation starting as a mix Thursday afternoon and evening, going quickly to all snow and lasting to Friday Noon, when we should see lake-effect snow showers into Saturday. (graphic courtesy of GRR NWS). The National Weather Service is forecasting 4-7″ of new snow for much of the area. I suspect the heaviest snow will fall from Kent Co. down to around I-94. The Caribou Tool gives GRR 8.2″ of snow off the name model and 12.5″ off the GFS (this is often too high). The European would be closer to 4″. Slippery road conditions are likely from Thursday evening through at least mid-afternoon on Friday. We have had 8.5″ of snow for February so far at GRR and it’s possible that we could see above normal snowfall for the month, after seeing above normal snowfall in January. We are certainly heading toward a little more exciting (not saying much) weather pattern over the next week. Here’s the GFS 120-hour total snowfall map and the NAM 84 hour snowfall total map. Here’s HPC’s heavy snowfall map. Here’s the NWS weather discussion for SE Michigan, SW Michigan, and Northern Indiana (inc. the Michigan counties that border Indiana). Here’s local radar and regional radar. You can check out John Dee’s forecast snowfall map, Tom Skilling’s (WGN) forecast map and Joe Bastardi’s snowfall map. I’ll update around midday.
Thunderstorm watches could be going up in Indy and Ohio today verry active storm coming and even a bigger storm with lots of wind Monday could it be a Blizzard stay tuned I bet northwest will have a Blizzard Monday ….From getting the sled out with some oil on it to go fast tonight …YARDofBRICKS INDYYY…
GR NWS forecast discussion update:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1045 AM EST THU FEB 23 2012
.UPDATE…
ISSUED AT 1044 AM EST THU FEB 23 2012
I ALSO PLAN ON ISSUING A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MY SOUTHERN
THREE ROWS OF COUNTIES FROM 7 PM THROUGH NOON ON FRIDAY FOR 6 TO 8
INCHES OF SNOW. MOST OF WHICH SHOULD FALL BETWEEN 10 PM AND 10
AM. THERE IS STRONG FGEN…NEG EPV… THE MODEL QPF AXIS IS VERY
SIMILAR ALL JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE MODELS FOR THE 00Z AND 06Z AND
12Z RUN OF THE NAM. MORE DETAILS WILL FOLLOW LATER.
So that would mean GR will not be under a winter storm warning.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t some NWS in Indiana forecast for the border counties? Meaning when GRR NWS says “my southern three rows” you don’t count the bottom ones?
We’ll see! Bill said we’ll have to wait for the next run but seemed to agree regarding GR.
YES !!!! U ARE CORRECTT!! INDYY
flip your coin again on that call Travis …INDYY
This shows the main stuff will be south of kent county.
Ya, looking like Kzoo and Battle Creek are in the sweet spot for this one .
ARE YOU READDDY !!!! SNOW IS COMING IN A BUNCH !! IT’S GONNA ROCK THE SKIES OF WEST MI !!!!
JEFF U KNOW IS HAS BEEN READY SINCE LAST WEEK!! INDYY
THAT IS INDY LOLOLOLO!!!
I bet Dan The Man is jumping for joy! He had confidence that winter wasn’t over and he was right! No one should condemn someone for their opinions or beliefs, last I knew it was still a free country…. so far.
Looks like a nice little thunderstorm heading into IL
So what is the thought.. A general 3-6in snow with higher amounts points south ?
Get to the store now West Michigan food sprites lights and ice for this storm going to be a 3 day snow event schools will be closed tomorow cars will be wrecked and Bill will be set on his 89 inches for West Michigan!!! Stay tuned INDYY
Kent County WILL be in the warning…he says “His southern 3 counties” the row of counties along Indiana boarder are in another forcast center in Indiana, so his southern 3 are Kalamazoo, Allegan then Kent.
People in the east trying trying to predick west michigan’s weather again I hope it rains all day and night on them!! INDYY
We just received alerts that Kent County is under a winter storm warning until 12pm EST 02/24/2012
Great Call KSEA!!! INDYYY
In the warning Zone
Thee Switchy
Wraning’s will be rolling for Kent Muskegon Newago Ionia south as of 3pm!!! Maybe flood watches for the east Michigan and thunderstorms at the state line INDYY
Kent is in the warning.
Trackin Live all day in the North Dorr, South Kent county line
Switchy
Winter Storm Warning for Ottawa! Bring on the storm!
New 48 hour forecast looks to have no major changes. A little wider 6-12″ though for me!
http://www.weather.com/maps/news/forecastsummary/floater6_large.html
Winter Storm Warning for the YARDofB RICKS!! Welcome back Switchy get the pbr ready!!! INDYY
Cheers Indy !!
Warning for Kent County just issued.
IT’S A WARNING FOLKS !!! TIME TO BRING OUT THE PARTY HATS AND SPRITES !!!!!
Yeaaa time to rock-roll lock-load and blogg with some old today on Bill’s blogg !!! WELCOME BACK STORM LOVERS!!! INDYY
AHHHHH DDDD DDDD DDDD KENT COUNTY GRAND RAPIDS IS UNDER A WINTER STORM WARNING DDDD DDDD DDDD STAY RIGHT !!!! INDYYY
IT’S TIME TO TUNE UP THE SNOW BLOWER !! WATCH = WARNING AND WE ARE ALL GEARED UP !!!
http://youtu.be/YWFW0B9EBx0
http://www.weathermichigan.net/advisories/state.html WARNING!!
Snowblower used twice this winter. Gassed up and ready for this one. Hopefully we will get a pretty good snow storm.
New Warning Blog Thread up!
Be there or be square!
Switchy
Don’t see it yet!! INDYY
M222 – halfway between Martin and Allegan. Just started to snow here.