Monday –

February 26th, 2012 at 1:11 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

  Big Red Lighthouse – pic. from Ted Swoboda.  Crescent moon from Jack Martin (facebook friend)  Nice grouping of the Moon with Venus below and Jupiter to the upper left this evening in the western sky – picture from (facebook friend) Kim Uzarski-Gutierrez.  Nice temperature climbs Sunday, with Three Rivers going from a low of +2 up to 41, Kalamazoo from 12 to 40 and Gr. Rapids from 17 to 37.  Snow cover makes a difference.  The high was 53 today in Chicago and 61 in Peoria IL (which was warmer than northern Florida.  Daytona, Florida had 0.76″ of rain today, delaying the 500.  There’s a chance of showers again this Monday.  Stay up with the latest forecasts.  Both the new GFS and NAM are showing the possibility of some freezing rain Tuesday night.  The earlier European model showed a little of that, too.  Here’s the latest outlook from GRR NWS on the ice potential and the HPC ice forecast.  Here’s Milwaukee’s NWS storm forecast.  Here’s snowfall off the NAM model and the GFS model.   Tuesday during the day should be OK, but driving Tuesday night could get challenging.  The precipitation may be a mix to start (could be snow to freezing rain to rain)  Temperatures should get above freezing Weds. AM.  School closings are certainly possible Weds. AM.  Watch for icy spots this AM until temps. get up to 35 or so.  It’ll be rather windy this afternoon and breezy on Monday.   The storm for Tuesday night/Weds. is going just north of us, but the storm will occlude so we may not get in the warm sector very long if we do at all.  It’ll be windy Weds. PM.  The storm may end with an inch or two of snow.  This storm will produce heavy snow and possible blizzard conditions from the Dakotas across Minnesota and NW Wisconsin and into the U.P.  The system after that could be rain to snow Friday night into Saturday.  With the recent snow, here are some updated season snowfall totals:  Oshtemo 66.5″, Kalamazoo 58.3″, Bloomingdale 53.0″, Muskegon 49.8″, Grand Rapids 47.9″, Hastings 46.3″, Lansing 38.7″.   They got a little bit of snow in Maine.  Alyeska Ski Area in Alaska is up to 679.7″ of snow since Oct. 1 with a base of up to 182″  (over 15 feet! – They may not see the ground until August!).  Denver (65) was ten degrees warmer than a rainy Brownsville TX (high of 55) on Saturday.   After Orlando reached 89 on Friday, they were back in the 60s on Saturday.  If you like heat, head to Tasmania, Australia.  Hobart reached 102 degrees on Saturday, the warmest day since 1998 and the warmest day in February since 1995.  They had a downsloping north wind that brought the heat from the mainland.  A typical summer day in Hobart is about 65-70 degrees with a cool wind off the ocean.   ADD:   Here’s an article about how warm the winter has been in the Traverse City area this winter.

294 Responses to “Monday –”

  1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    Deb, it looks like you’re going to get more snow, Muskegon is going to get more of a mix of snow and ice, and now it looks like the heavy freezing rain/icing may actually occur more in Holland and GR. (The freezing rain map moved a bit further south.) This event might end up being somewhat similar to the February event last year…sorry Kalamazoo! We’ll see how it continues to trend.

    1. Stephen says:

      Fox showed from Muskegon to Big Rapids with Heavy Ice accums.

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        Oh yeah? We’ll see…the trend seems to be for it to get colder and colder…and those maps you posted show the freezing rain risk further south, which would put us more in the snow/ice mix category. There would definitely still be ice! I grew up in a very ice-prone area and have many bad memories of trying to sleep while strong winds whipped and cracked frozen trees. It gives me chills just thinking about it.

        1. Stephen says:

          Could get very very dangerous around town matt. If we get a Ice Storm make sure you and your neighbors stay safe and warm.

        2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          Thanks, Stephen. We live in an area with tons of trees. The trees have actually grown so that the canopy covers the wires. We might need to consider staying with our friends in Spring Lake village or Muskegon.

    2. Nathan (GR) says:

      I am predicting winter storm warning for Newaygo north and ice storm warnings for Muskegon south. And a winter weather advisory for the bordering counties. Just a guess!

  2. Nathan (GR) says:

    These storms like to shift farther SE by the way. So I am pretty sure Ludington will still see ice, along with Grand Rapids!

  3. Deb (Ludington) says:

    Can somebody post the link for the new model update???

    1. Stephen says:

      GFS has not even started to update yet it would take about 45 minutes to an hour for any posts regarding the GFS

      1. Deb (Ludington) says:

        So the result right now is that Ludington north will get snow, and from 96 south will have the ice storm am I correct???

    2. Mike Geukes says:

      Here is a link to many models on the internet.
      http://stormchasingweather.com/westmichigan2-models.htm

  4. Nathan (GR) says:

    I’ll check back in about 7.5 hours! I need a snowstorm!

    1. Nathan (GR) says:

      Ice storm

  5. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    Urgh, look at that tight gradient of snow over Muskegon County! Grrr…just a ibt further south! Hopefully it’s just the NAM doing what the NAM does, ALWAYS dissing areas along the lakeshore.

    Deb, you are definitely in the snow area here.

    http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=GRR

    1. Nathan (GR) says:

      Wow, that moved way farther to the south! It’s unbelievable!

    2. Stephen says:

      GFS is updating right now! Lets see what it does.

  6. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

    Watching Fox future track…it still shows mostly ice. Barely any ice for Kalamazoo up to Holland with around .03″ of ice, then rain. Up near and just north of GR showing a third of an inch of ice. 00Z NAM shows more snow south. While I would rather have snow, the last storm the NAM showed heavy snow around the Indiana border….and it ended up much further north.

  7. Deb (Ludington) says:

    I just checked a model don’t know which one but it has the ice storm going more from a Grad haven to Grand Rapids line tp the south sorry and Muskeginers who wanted the ice storm looks like you r out of it now

  8. Deb (Ludington) says:

    Stephen whats the GFS say now???

  9. Nathan (GR) says:

    Isthe GFS ready?

  10. Mike Geukes says:

    On this web page of mine, is a huge list of links to many forecast models.

    FORECAST MODEL LINKS:
    http://stormchasingweather.com/modellinks2.htm

    1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

      That is showing just the snow, not ice. I’m more concerned about ice then snow.

    2. Stephen says:

      Nope that is the 18z.
      The new run is the 00z which is only 45 hours in right now. It will be another 30 to an hour for any precip map.

  11. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    I live off Myers Lake/17 mile and what is concerning is all those trees limbs hanging over the road and all the wires, if this pans out which I believe it will and those limbs snap the lines will go with it and it will be more then just a few days of no power. BURRRR

  12. Deb (Ludington) says:

    Ok fox is saying significant snow north of 96 and all of you are saying it is going to be more south who do I believe???

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Deb,

      Snow to the north, with ice to the south. Many of us are hoping the snow line continues moving south. You are in for more snow right now. Freezing rain risk continues to move farther south away from you.

      1. Deb (Ludington) says:

        What about Muskegon is Muskegon supposed to see a ice event

        1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          Yeah. As of now, according to the NAM, we’re right on the line between major ice storm and major snowstorm. If the storm tracks just a little further south than what the NAM shows, we would have more of a snowstorm here too.

        2. Allendale says:

          you just have to look at the map (the NAM) that just came out. Areas where you see more snowfall will get more snow. Once you start to see the lighter amounts of snow that taper off to little or nothing, there will be more mix(ice) involved.

  13. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

    Just saw the 00z GFS. Not much difference…perhaps slightly slower and the rain/ice/snow line may shift a tad north. It keeps the heavy snow over northern lower and the upper peninsula.

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      There’s still a couple days for it to change…. if the models start showing everything moving north again, then I’ll concede to a strictly ice or rain event.

  14. Jacob G. (Kent City) says:

    Looking like 00Z GFS has shifted north by about 50-75 miles, only one run, the 21Z SREF is showing much colder 2M temps. So we still need a good 12-24 hours yets to nail this done. One thing to note to significant ice amounts takes either a long over running duration event or convective trends. Right not neither is showing up in fact by Wed afternoon we could have drizzle and temsp about freezing.

    1. Jacob G. (Kent City) says:

      correction “temps above freezing”

    2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      :( I think this is the time when I get off the weather forums and just wait and see. These models jumping back forth = headache.

  15. Max (Zeeland) says:

    As of right now I think that I will get maybe a small amount of ice but then mostly rain, just doesn’t look like theres that much cold air that is going to hold around south

  16. Ryan says:

    Is ice going for gr and how much?

  17. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

    I was looking at the zone forecasts….they don’t even mention freezing rain for Van Buren Co…strictly rain for Tue. night. I’ll stick with the ice storm from Holland to Battle Creek north…and the snow storm up near Gaylord and the U.P.

  18. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

    00Z GFS also showing the Friday storm going just west of us…rain.

    1. Jacob G. (Kent City) says:

      976 MB low pressure by the bridge with wind wrapped snow on the back side is looking interesting.

    2. Stephen says:

      Waaaaaay to far out for the GFS on that!

  19. Deb (Ludington) says:

    So now the models are jumping back north I am so confused:/

    1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

      They did this with our snow storm on Friday, it’s just a matter of waiting and seeing how it all unfolds. Just be prepared one way or another.

    2. Jacob G. (Kent City) says:

      Just one run of the GFS has shifted slightly north. These events are so hard to nail down in advance as it doesn’t take much to change that rain snow line. Just stay tune and we should have a better handle in the next 12-24 hours.

      1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

        As Kyle said, just even a degree in temp could make all the difference in this system. So as you said, stay tuned. But I’m still feeling it for an ice storm it’s not wishful thinking either, as many have said they’d rather see snow then ice.

  20. Deb (Ludington) says:

    Can I get a link to the GFS???

    1. Bnoppe says:

      If u go to the NWS on the side it says models

  21. Mike Geukes says:

    24-Hour Probability of Freezing Rain Accumulating ≥ .01″
    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=icez

  22. TomKap (Michigan St. & Fuller) Grand Rapids says:

    Odd that the temp jumped to 40 a few hours ago…and is for the most part, holding.

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