Monday –
February 26th, 2012 at 1:11 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
Big Red Lighthouse – pic. from Ted Swoboda. Crescent moon from Jack Martin (facebook friend) Nice grouping of the Moon with Venus below and Jupiter to the upper left this evening in the western sky – picture from (facebook friend) Kim Uzarski-Gutierrez. Nice temperature climbs Sunday, with Three Rivers going from a low of +2 up to 41, Kalamazoo from 12 to 40 and Gr. Rapids from 17 to 37. Snow cover makes a difference. The high was 53 today in Chicago and 61 in Peoria IL (which was warmer than northern Florida. Daytona, Florida had 0.76″ of rain today, delaying the 500. There’s a chance of showers again this Monday. Stay up with the latest forecasts. Both the new GFS and NAM are showing the possibility of some freezing rain Tuesday night. The earlier European model showed a little of that, too. Here’s the latest outlook from GRR NWS on the ice potential and the HPC ice forecast. Here’s Milwaukee’s NWS storm forecast. Here’s snowfall off the NAM model and the GFS model. Tuesday during the day should be OK, but driving Tuesday night could get challenging. The precipitation may be a mix to start (could be snow to freezing rain to rain) Temperatures should get above freezing Weds. AM. School closings are certainly possible Weds. AM. Watch for icy spots this AM until temps. get up to 35 or so. It’ll be rather windy this afternoon and breezy on Monday. The storm for Tuesday night/Weds. is going just north of us, but the storm will occlude so we may not get in the warm sector very long if we do at all. It’ll be windy Weds. PM. The storm may end with an inch or two of snow. This storm will produce heavy snow and possible blizzard conditions from the Dakotas across Minnesota and NW Wisconsin and into the U.P. The system after that could be rain to snow Friday night into Saturday. With the recent snow, here are some updated season snowfall totals: Oshtemo 66.5″, Kalamazoo 58.3″, Bloomingdale 53.0″, Muskegon 49.8″, Grand Rapids 47.9″, Hastings 46.3″, Lansing 38.7″. They got a little bit of snow in Maine. Alyeska Ski Area in Alaska is up to 679.7″ of snow since Oct. 1 with a base of up to 182″ (over 15 feet! – They may not see the ground until August!). Denver (65) was ten degrees warmer than a rainy Brownsville TX (high of 55) on Saturday. After Orlando reached 89 on Friday, they were back in the 60s on Saturday. If you like heat, head to Tasmania, Australia. Hobart reached 102 degrees on Saturday, the warmest day since 1998 and the warmest day in February since 1995. They had a downsloping north wind that brought the heat from the mainland. A typical summer day in Hobart is about 65-70 degrees with a cool wind off the ocean. ADD: Here’s an article about how warm the winter has been in the Traverse City area this winter.
It was a great winter weekend. Even though we have had below normal snowfall this year I have been able to snowmobile 6 out of the last 7 weekends! Gotta love it. We will be having wild ride over the next two weeks. Many chances for snow storms on the way. Get ready for a lot more COLD and SNOW baby!
Bill we need a ICE storm blogg get off the couch get on the puter and let us have it !!!! INDYYY
I second that notion!
Lol!!
Lol here too
Could you see it happening where we get two or three more decent dumps of snow (greater than 6 inches) through March? That would take us closer to seasonal averages for snowfall! That would be something considering how this Winter has gone. We COULD get CLOSER to 80 inches pf snow and all on the back end of this season. I know, big stretch but would be something amazing for this Winter!
Strange Winter where the cold air never really sticks around for more than a day or two?
Ok Bill we really need you to get a b log started for the upcoming ice storm
What’s this about an ice storm!
Hey guys as Bills on the couch keep up the thoughts about a ICE storm coming INDY will keep it going tonight and Bill will be alright !!!!! Give him time he will roll over and smell his blogg going nuts and bolts soon I BET!! INDYY
.3 of an inch ice predicted for GR. Not really a ‘storm’.
Maybe on Michigan St. only!! INDYY
I am seeing that as what is predicted as well Indy. North of GR is supposed to get it the worst.
That’d be me!! I’m preparing already getting plasic jugs around for water for drinking, flushing, ect. I’ll be fillin the bath tub up Tuesday night before it starts up so we have extra on hand to flush that toilet. I’ll be buying 40lbs of driveway salt,ect.
and flashlights!! INDYYY
CHECK!
We are thinking of staying at the in-laws Tuesday night. We all work together (family business) and they built their house right next door so we can just walk to work LOL.
.3 inches of ice is a serious storm and can do plenty of damage! Just like many people telling me we did not have a snow storm on Friday. Really? Most of the GR area received 5 to 6 inches of snow. Get real!
Right how lot’s thought 1-3 inches only for Kent county and lots more to the south Friday and what way did the storm go Friday I will give some of u a hint who was the good witch on wizzard of oz ??? GLENDA WHO?? INDYY
Yes that is a nice chunk of ice. That can cause problems for sure.
No it can’t.
0.25 would be bad 0.50 would see lots of power losses
HEY DEB in ludton ARE U READY???? INDYYY
Yes I am ready INDY lets get this torm rolling!
I don’t know as if Bill will put a thread up just yet considering how things have went this winter, he may tomorrow night when he has a good and better feel for it or after the 4:00am model run since he’s a night owl. I think Bill needs his sleep right now while he can before Tuesday night roles around and he has to hunker down at Wood.
If it stays the same through the next 2 model runs ill consider it an Ice Storm!
I already consider it the way I’m already feeling this far in advance, not lookin forward to how I’ll continue to feel until this system passes tomorrow and Tuesday will be the worst.
Doesanyone know what the model runs right now look like if they still are keeping the ice storm fir Tuesday night???
YES lots of wind with more ice then snow in our zone!! INDYY
Yep WZZM has .7 to .9 of Ice from Ottawa to Ludington!
Gee, funny how all the die hard “Winters Over” aren’t on the blog this past week after the snow storm and now with this event coming. Yup, they were WRONG! I knew mother nature had something more up her guarder set.
Yes, the warm weather nuts/snow haters are lying low, because they just do not want to admit that winter is still going full force!
If that happen we’re going to see a huge amount of damage
Ice Ice Babby may not be nice for some bunker down with food and thoughts with light brites and stay up all night and watch your house!! INDYY!
Hey Deb your city will be shut down and doors will be locked start thinking about your home and what u own get a cell phone!! INDYY
SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR FCST AREA FROM
LATE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS ALOFT GRADUALLY
MODERATE BUT REMAIN STUCK NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING NEAR THE SFC. IT IS
NOTED THAT SREF PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS TRENDING UP WITH
PROBABILITIES FOR FZRA RATE TO EXCEED .05 INCHES/3 HRS ACROSS MOST
OF OUR AREA FROM 03Z WED THRU 12Z WED. THIS NOTION SEEMS VERY
REASONABLE (ALTHOUGH THE SREF PROBABILITIES FOR THAT PARAMETER ARE
STILL TOO LOW) GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND FCST
TEMP PROFILES AND QPF THAT IS PROGGED FROM 06Z-12Z WED.
That would be half an inch of ice in that time frame. Ill bet somone see’s and inch of ice.
It’s looking like an ice storm to me…everyone better get ready its going to get nasty Tuseday Night and Wednesday. Better get the water, food,and generator ready!! We ARE READY here in Rockford, BRING ON THE ICE STORM!!!!
Clint LOCK-LOAD ROCK-N-ROLL STAY TUNED MAJOR ICE WITH LOTS OF LIFE IS COMING! INDY
Was visiting a relative and they had 13 on..Sorry Bill! But Joe was saying .09 of ice potentially for my area. That will be enough to shut us down if it were to happen. I will be watching Bill and the blog for updates.
.9 Weather watcher.
.09 is nothing lol.
Yes…oops. added o with all the excitement..lol! One to many Sprites I believe! Thanks for the correction.
too. Yikes!
hehehe sprite drunk!
I am tonight !!!! INDYY
We are in for a wicked ride I’m sure!
Out at the YARDofBRICKS we have blankets sprites lights and fun nights to come we are ready build a fire stay all nighter and get ready for a ice blow the transformers louder..INDYY
Yup… that there’s a freezing rain temperature profile:
http://i.imgur.com/3XbaY.jpg
(According to the latest GFS. 7 am Weds)
BILL GET UP RING DING AND DONG WE HAVE A ICE THONG COMING!! INDYYY
Considering that ‘forecast/predictions’ haven’t been anywhere near close all Winter long, I’ll ignore all the silly “!!!!!!!!” in this thread.
Sheesh.
Well I hope your microwave works with out power!! INDYY
You are delusional. You had better up your medication quickly!
Like i said earlier ICE STORM WARNING by Tuseday Morning… Just a guess?? What does everyone else think??
First we will get a Winter Storm watch since there is no Ice Storm watch then by Tuesday evening Ice storm warning!
If they’re expecting at least 0.25″ of freezing rain and little else, that’s an Ice Storm Warning. If they think it’s going to be a snow/sleet/ice slop with freezing rain accumulations staying under a quarter inch, they’ll want to blanket it with a Winter Weather Advisory. ‘Course, I ain’t placing no bets yet.
Yup I thought .3 was ice STORM criteria
I’ve got a nasty pine tree in the yard I want gone but haven’t had cut down yet. If anything good can come out of an ice storm, it would be that tree crashing to the ground. Knowing my luck that tree would be unscathed and the ones I like would get damaged.
No, it’ll be the one tree still standing
ICE STORM WATCH TOMOROW ICE STORM WARNING TUESDAY MORNING!! INDYY
No such thing as a Ice Storm watch it will be a Winter Storm Watch then a Ice storm warning!
AHHHHH we will call it a Fixxer watch!! INDYYY
He is probably recovering from the unexpected winter storm!
Yes a fixxxer, mixxxer, ice/winter storm watch!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rog8ou-ZepE Hee, hee, hee!
Ohhh yea just a kid with a sag on my pants when that song broke!! INDYY
Hey Deb u with us we need a report from Ludton please!! INDYY
It would be just like old man winter to give us a “real” storm after all this boring weather!
Old man winter and mother nature….. Who came up with those names? And hi Bill!
I know it’s early, but is Kent county expected to get a lot of ice to at this moment? I only saw an ice storm when I was little. It lightninged and the power went out! Lightning in an ice storm! We had no power for a week and no refrigerator for a whole week! That would be fun to have again!
Yupp and no school for u Nathan!! INDYYY
YAAAA!!!!!!!!
Oh there won’t be school for anyone from Grand Haven to Grand rapids north it’s quite obvious with .5-1″ of ice
Is this ice storm a guarantee? If the storm moves south, then it is for Grand Rapids! But not north.
I don’t understand how that would be fun.
Besides driving and no power! Then I wouldn’t be able to be on the blog.
Oh I dont think this storm will go south they are already putting blizzard watches out in South Dakohtah
If the storm rolls south we be under a Blizzard watch and it may time will tell!!! INDYY
And if it moves north, then we get thunderstorm!
So is this ice storm going to hit or not I am very confused???
Im pretty sure it well deb. Time will tell. The morning we should have a Winter Storm watch or a Ice storm warning by tomorrow evening.
Well I understand no one wants an ice storm (well some do I guess), but since I had mine a year ago, it is someone else’s turn. Enjoy.
Waiting on the NAM to update. If it stays the same then i am convinced it will happen.
When is the next update? I am just going to plan on it happening and back our bags to stay at the in-laws. They, at least, have a generator! I will be worried about our 3 cats that will be stuck at our house if we lose power!
Updating at the moment should be ready to view whats coming in about 10-15 minutes
Here is the latest map from the climate prediction center. Just an early guess, but I could see an advisory for freezing rain for Van Buren, Allegan, Kalamazoo…with a warning for everyone else. Looking at the models, they show more rain than freezing rain for the far SW corner…and more ice than rain from about Holland to Battle Creek northward. Also, the NAM is showing much more precip…the GFS has trended down as well as the European model. However, it does not take much ice to cause major havoc. I’m wondering if we lose our snow cover the next two days if that will play a part in the surface temps as well.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_pice_gt_25.gif
Can I get a link to the models???
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F27%2F2012+00UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=1000_500_thick&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M
Still remember about 1994…Ice storm. We were ice skating in the streets, literally.
If it is the same one I recall from 1994…it was 17 degrees in Mt. Pleasant, with a steady rain, and I was delivering pizza. I had to walk on the snow for footing as driveways were impossible to walk on.
I do beleive NWS GRR will issue a winter storm watch either at 4am tmw or 4pm for the entite CWA
Nam is pretty much exactly the same run. I am convinced we are going to see a brutal ice storm.
Was there any slight change north or south?
Still coming in. Heavier precip it seems and same EXACT track.
It looks like even heavier precip
Perfect!
I’m still not convinced it will be a “major” ice storm yet. Too much talk of dry slots, warm air, front closing off too far to the west delaying the arrival, etc. Still, we’ve probably had more to watch in the last week than we have all winter. Also, the 18Z GFS shows a better chance of snow with the late week system.
Occluded front + models are lining up percect for a ice storm. I think we will see a pretty bad icing event.
I think it’s a little colder, which may up the chances for a bit more snow.
Hows Ludington are we going to get the ice storm what areas will???
Waiting for the model to finish updating ill post a link to the icing.
Thanks Stephen. Looking forward to your update.
Agreed:)
Model has finished updating just waiting for the snow ice and rain page to load the data. Looking like a good ice storm. Could even see 2-4 inches of snow after the ice is done.
Adding my thanks Stephen! Looks as though I better get more gas for the genny and some other supplies. Looks like Newago co. will be in the bullseye :-{
It looks like were going to get all of the winter fun in the next 2 weeks
I agree Bnoppe. Looks like it could get very warm in 2 weeks
Stephen can you post the model???
Precip map hasn’t updated yet.
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2012022700&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084
Snowfall map
http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kmkg.txt
It wouldn’t take much more to get a snow event here. We’ve just got to get the upper levels (850s) to cool down a bit more. Otherwise it’s going to be a huge ice storm with some snow. Over a half inch of precip in 6 hours with lower level temps below freezing = YIKES!
If this turn to all snow watch out. The NAM move more southeastern with the Heavy snow over north / central Wisconsin with over a foot!
So are we going to get n ice storm where the ice map??
It’s a little early, but probably ice for Grand Rapids to Big Rapids! And a little to the south.
Through 60 hours:
http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getptype.cgi?region=us&model=nam&run=00&fhr=21&field=acctype
.6-.8 Inches of Ice. And a inch or 2 of snow. S
Wow, that’s a lot of ice!
What are they saying about the Allegan area?
Kyle was just on and said they are watching what could be a healthy mix for late Tuesday. Somebody wakeup Mr.Bill!!!
Throw a rock at his window!
Awww give the poor guy a break! He’ll be living at Wood from Tuesday night on, he needs his beauty rest, and family time.
No ice for far SW unless the storm shifts south, and theres a chance of snow (over 4 inches( from Big Rapids off to the north. But if that also shifts south, then look out!
The whole reason I am so excited is this will be the first time I can see a storm with contacts! Hd vision.
It looks like it shifted to the south is it going to hit Ludington???
The map was not completely updated should be ready in 5 minutes
GFS should be updating in the next 10 minutes
Oh ok do you think the updat eit will have shifted south???
It will hit Ludington, maybe more snow (lucky), but safely in the ice threat. Grand Rapids is icy rain on the other hand.
Fox says if the models continue to say the same there will be a Ice Storm warning.