Severe T-Storm Warnings
March 12th, 2012 at 12:25 pm by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, News, Weather
4:20 PM: Dang, I just took a call from someone who wanted to know if the time change was supposed to be last weekend!!! Severe T-Storm Warnings for Montcalm, Mecosta, E. Newaygo, Clare and Osceola Counties for marginal hail and wind. Check the Fremont Cam. 3 reports of pea-sized hail from the Muskegon area. Also hail at Stony Lake when the storm went thru (Oceana Co.) Pea-sized hail and gusts to 40-50 mph in Whitehall. Update from GRR: ” Checked with Benona Shores Golf Course near Little Sable Point, they had Estimated 30 mph wind gust with pea size hail that fell from the storm…quick mesoscale update: still have rather extensive cloud cover and very marginal instability. the storm prediction center is not thinking a watch will be necessary anytime real soon, however there is still potential for a few strong to severe storms by late aftn/eve.” Bill adds – seeing the potential for (as of now) small hail and a below-severe criteria gust front with the storms coming into NW Muskegon and Oceana Co. A small bowing segment went thru N. Oceana Co. – leave a comment if you had some wind up there. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a meso-discussion for N. Illinois, N. Indiana and SW Michigan. Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado Watch Possible. Golfball-sized hail already near Racine WI – storm tracking over Lake Michigan now. Hail also reported west of Chicago. Special Marine Warning for Holland north. Significant Weather Advisory for Oceana/Muskegon. North of a line from Grand Haven to Mt. Pleasant. T-Storms…not a ton of lightning, but some – certainly a chance of gusty winds and hail. Chance of a tornado in this area is not zero, but pretty small as of now. They say: “PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SOME FORM OF THIS IL CONVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE DEVELOPING NEWD TO EXTREME SE WI/SRN LAKE MI…AND EWD TOWARD SRN LOWER MI. THE MODEST INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AOA 50 KT/ AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2 TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS…WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY 21Z AND PERSIST UNTIL ROUGHLY 03Z. DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FROM PORTIONS OF NRN IL/SERN WI EWD TOWARDS SWRN LWR MI. …BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW THIS AFTERNOON.” Areas south and east of Kent County will have a slightly higher threat of severe weather between the hours of 4 PM and 10 PM. Here’s the latest satellite loop, showing the breaks in the clouds and a surface weather map. More sunshine will mean we get warmer and the warmer we get during the mid-afternoon, the better the chance for any severe weather.
Storm is almost here in Muskegon very dark toward the lake looks like a small shelf coming in.
I see a confluence axis running from Big Rapids to Hudsonville to South Haven on the satellite image. It’s trying to pop up some showers along that axis, which will move to the NE at 50 mph. If only we had more instability…
What about the popcorn farts starting in Illinois?
Perhaps they need Tums!
That’s another confluence axis. That’s the trigger I was hoping for later this evening.
Cort…got a link to what you’re looking at?
Loop: http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/2km.php?loop=1&type=vis®ion=MI&numimages=24
Mesoanalysis: http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/2km.php?loop=2&type=vis®ion=MI
Winds from the south in Benton Harbor and Kzoo, and southwest in Holland.
Cool…thx
I am not an expert but whats a shelf???
A shelf cloud: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/synoptic/shelf.htm
A cloud that looks like a shelf, on the leading edge of a line of thunderstorms.
Deb T-TIME is over u I hope u got ready!!!! shelf clouds stack’ed clouds from the storm that is miles away!! INDYY
Steady sun near the corner of Broadmoor and 44th. Can feel the temps going up and a steady SW wind. No thermometer at the office.
I had confluence axis once- antibiotics cleared it up tho’.
HAHAHAHA nice!
I’ll be here all week! be sure to tip your server! BWWAAK!
Ummm…yuck???
?
Don’t worry, Tom lacks a sense of humor.
LAKE-NEWAYGO-
301 PM EDT MON MAR 12 2012
…SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY…
AT 258 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 20 MILES WEST OF
BALDWIN TO 25 MILES WEST OF NEWAYGO…MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.
PEA SIZE HAIL…WINDS GREATER THAN 30 MPH…FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING…BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS…ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
Again lets enjoy this moment blogg is way more informative with out the mix! INDYY
So nice to hear Thunder! Shelf just went over head still no precip yet in Muskegon…
Now its pouring
Dime size hail
Greater chances to the south and east! Music to my ears
Seems like it happens with every storm
Eastern Muskegon Newago look out thunderstorm warning any time take shelter!! INDYY
…SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY…
AT 302 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTH OF MUSKEGON…MOVING NORTHEAST AT
50 MPH. PEA SIZE HAIL HAD BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. THIS STORM
WAS PART OF A LINE OF STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
UP TO ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL…WINDS GREATER THAN 40
MPH…FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING…BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS…ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THE STRONGEST STORMS WITHIN THE LINE OF STORMS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
NORTH OF A MUSKEGON TO WOLF LAKE LINE.
Dime to quarter sized hail Cort! That was amazing. From no precip to pouring rain then hail!
Take pictures! Place dimes, pennies, nickels, quarters (whatever you have) in the picture for reference!
Make sure you’ve measured the size of the hail correctly. (A dime is 0.7 inch, a penny is 0.75 inch, a nickel is 0.88 inch, and a quarter is 1 inch.) Submit a report to the NWS: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/grr/spotter/
Brang a few pieces inside. measured .8 for the biggest piece.
Kind of getting bummed. Was at least hoping for a thunderstorm.
Nice line on the roll in nothern ILL. we have to track that one!!! INDYY
Had a few pieces of quarter sized hail!!
Must not be too bad. No watch/warnings with that line.
Wasnt bad was pouring rain then about 2 minutes of pea to dime sized hail then a quick burst of some quarter sized pieces. I’m happy now if it doesn’t storm anymore ill be ok since i got mine
The sun is coming out here in Kalamazoo. Wondering how much de-stabilization that will provide.
Thunder lightning and heavy rain..
Any chance this thing escalates into a Killstorm?
a what?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9yaJGFdhNkU
Thanks Cort, the weather amateurs on this board have a lot to learn from us professionals.
ahhh i HATE the simpsons.
LOL!
The sun is coming out in between cloud cover here, warming up little by little.
I work in Grand Haven. Strange cloud just went over head, it looked like a barrel rolling down a hill. Never saw horizontal rotation like that, looked pretty cool.
Yeah, very fast moving scud clouds. Moving in all different directions!
someone posted pics of that to wzzms facebook wall, some lowering in the clouds
Roll cloud?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HEZCM1rIqaA
It’s like a shelf cloud but it’s disconnected from the thunderstorm.
It was rolling for sure. That is all about I can be sure of. Was a fairly large cloud. My coworker and I have never seen anything rotate like that. Really cool to see, should have taken a video.
Yeah, I was watching a broken area and it had several small areas of pretty intense rotation!
Looking at the line in Illinois / So Wisc starting to organize.
are those small pop up storms in IL the focal point for storm devlopment later
making a line seems like.
In Muskegon by Orchard View Schools never got any hail here. Saw the line coming in couple flashes of lightning a 5 minute down pour then done. Nothing exciting…..sigh
64 and sunny in ALbion clouds are blocking the sun about 40% of the time
i am aching i know this means storms are a brewin, would be nice to see some 80s and 90s though this march is still not very warm i see 50s next week, not 70s, i need exercise but master just sits at the computer all day gains weight doesn ot look for work
So are there going to be anymore storms this afternoon severe???
Probably not for you. This part of Michigan in the Red has the best chances: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1630_wind.gif
You might get more rumbles of thunder looking at radar and direction of travel, but I doubt anything severe. http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=GRR&lat=43.96899414&lon=-86.42027283&label=Ludington%2C+MI&type=N0R&zoommode=pan&map.x=400&map.y=240¢erx=400¢ery=240&prevzoom=zoom&num=10&delay=15&scale=1&showlabels=1&smooth=0&noclutter=1&showstorms=10&rainsnow=0&lightning=0
1/2″ hail reported in Muskegon county!
What’s the chance of them issuing a Tornado Watch for Ottawa County? We have plans tonight that probably will be canceled if there is a Tornado Watch.
Looks like line segments i really don’t see any watches being issued.
Excellent. While I would absolutely love some good storms and exciting weather, it doesn’t work in tonight’s schedule for me! ha ha!
With the clearing and everything going on according to meteorology friends in Northern Illinois. A watch will probably be issued later for our area…might not be a Tornado Watch though.
The lakes starting to fart now! Popcorn farts are starting up.
Feelin like the dew points are up today !
There’s a hail core that was overhanging M-37 just south of White Cloud. Now it’s dumping out just Southeast of White Cloud. Possibly greater than half inch.
Checking in at 63 degrees and sunny. Someone said if it gets to 66 then more chance for severe, right? Catch ya’ll later!
The Southern most end of that line of storms in Newaygo county is becoming more surface based.
Looks like we’ve reached Convective Temperature… showers starting to pop from GR and over Lake Michigan to Chicago. Just need some more instability and a stronger, more focused trigger.
63 at the YARDofDUCKS playing in their pool with the sun popping in/out of the clouds, I have 3 more degrees to go yet will I make it? Will I see any storms? Only time and Mother Nature can tell me that. I wonder if Charles is getting any footage or decent chases yet? Haven’t taken the camera out yet, just sitting and waiting and wondering.
He’s probably taking lots of good cloud time lapse.
Nice cells popping over the lk …INDYY
I think the HRRR model is doing a great job on our thunderstorm chances this afternoon.
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus15min/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_15min:&runTime=2012031211&plotName=cref15min_t7sfc&fcstInc=15&numFcsts=61&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t7&wjet=1
Showers in wyoming. Still not feeling it for kent. Hardly no sun today here.
SPC Update in a minute or 2
Watch coming!! INDYY
Storms near Newaygo now severe
Outlook stayed the same. Muskegon to the east and southward.
Montcalm County – Wow – I am surprised – I really thought severe would be in the south end of the state!
https://nwschat.weather.gov/vtec/#2012-O-NEW-KGRR-SV-W-0001
LOL, just as I figured and as usual just on the edge of that storm and will miss it unless it intensifies.
I’m about 1/2hr East of Newaygo, hmmmm, the sun isn’t shining now and seems a bit darker. Haven’t checked radar yet though. I don’t know if my area will have enough surface temp to keep a thunderstorm sustained, still at 63
Storms are popping in Kent county INDYY
First Warnings of the day…more to follow later??
BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
400 PM EDT MON MAR 12 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
MECOSTA COUNTY IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN…
MONTCALM COUNTY IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN…
EAST CENTRAL NEWAYGO COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MICHIGAN…
* UNTIL 445 PM EDT
* AT 358 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL…
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7
MILES WEST OF MORLEY..AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
NEWAYGO… HOWARD CITY… GREENVILLE…
BIG RAPIDS… EDMORE… STANTON…
BARRYTON… MORLEY… MECOSTA…
NEWYAGO STATE PARK… CROTON… FERRIS TWP…
LANGSTON… CEDAR LAKE… VICKERYVILLE…
BUTTERNUT… FENWICK… TURK LAKE…
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
FOR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE
ROAD.
&&
LAT…LON 4347 8509 4346 8485 4312 8484 4312 8531
4329 8531 4329 8556 4338 8557 4340 8588
4360 8560 4360 8556 4382 8556 4381 8509
TIME…MOT…LOC 2001Z 270DEG 27KT 4351 8556
WIND…HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN
No wonder Charles moved to Greenville, they get all the storms, I’m 15min West of Greenville straight shot and Cedar isn’t even listened on the areas impacted, oh why am I NOT surprised!! Temp just went down so my chance of storms are pretty slim now I think. 62.6
Sunshine temp 67* out at the YARDofBRICKS !!!! The sun is popping storms like crazzy check it out!! INDYY
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=grr&loop=yes
I can’t load the radar or NWS. LOL, to funny my son who went to Skywarn with me opened the window and screen and his body is 1/2 in 1/2 out looking to th sky, he said he heard little rumbles. My true weather spotter! LOL!
Slight risk of severe weather still exists across all of central and southern Lower Michigan.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Here’s the stuff that really matters, from the SPC. Worth a read:
…MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AREA THROUGH TONIGHT…
CORRIDOR OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING HAS RESULTED IN 19Z
TEMPERATURES HAVING REACHED THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM SWRN
LOWER MI SWWD. INITIAL LOBE OF FORCED ASCENT AND SMALL MCS OVER
W-CNTRL LOWER MI SHOULD PROPAGATE E/ENEWD ON THE FRINGE OF THE
GREATER HEATING. MORNING CONVECTION-ALLOWING AND OPERATIONAL MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE SCENARIO FOR CONVECTION
BACKBUILDING SWWD AS WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.
IT APPEARS PROBABLE A SW/NE-ORIENTED BAND OF TSTMS WOULD FORM BY
EARLY EVENING FROM SRN LOWER MI INTO NRN IND. DEEP-LAYER FLOW WOULD
BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THIS TYPE OF ORIENTATION AND MAY MITIGATE A
MORE ROBUST DAMAGING WIND THREAT. STILL…DID EXPAND SLIGHT RISK
SLIGHTLY SEWD WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED /BUT WEAKENING/ LINE
PROGRESSING INTO NRN OH/LK ERIE VICINITY TONIGHT.
Not bad for March 12th just get ready for April and May Tornado’s for sure!! INDYY
And mid 80′s!!!! INDYY
Looks like a new MD or is it just me but they say watch is possible from Ottowa to Newaygo to Big Rapids east
Tornado Watch…..DDDD DDDDD DDDD!! INDYY
But “Pea Brain” said we wouldn’t get anything! Ha-ha-ha
Under the covers he’s rolls with a finger in his nose!! INDYY!
No new MD
That was an intense yet brief storm that rolled through. I was in Hesperia when it came through and the rain was coming down in waves as the wind was whipping it along. If the strength of this storm is any indication of what the storms could be like later..to the south of me. Hang on to your hats.
It wasn’t really warm and the cloud cover was abundant. The storm had little to build from. Yet it left quite a punch.
Like I said this morning 11am sun 4pm BIG storms yaaaaaa !!!! RIGHT ONNNN!! WARNINGS ARE OUT!!! INDYY
Good Job Indy!! You were right on!!
Just heard a report of a tree on the power line in Big Rapids they sure got it worse than me