Chance Shower/T-Shower

March 22nd, 2012 at 7:28 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Local   I’ll leave the radar and the links at the top of the blog.  We do have a chance of a shower or t-storm today, but they will be few and far between.  Whew!  It’s hot, 85 so far in G.R. with virtually no wind.  The lake breeze is kicking in.  It’s 65 on the beach at Holland and 58.6 on the beach at Muskegon.  Cool air has moved down into N. Lower Michigan.  Houghton Lake at 2 PM is just 66 with a wind NE at 15.  Pellston is 57 and Munising, which was 84 at mid-afternoon yesterday (warmer than any place in Hawaii!) is only 43 now!  The new European model takes us to around 32 degrees next Tues. AM.  That’s the coolest temperature out 8 days, but the trend will be temperatures significantly cooler than this (highs upper 40s to upper 50s?) for early April.  Today is the last 80.   The overall pattern will feature troughs on both coasts and a ridge from N. Dakota to Texas.  That will allow cooler air to come down from the north into Michigan, but keep the coldest air (and potential snow) from NY into New England.  Eugene OR had the biggest late season snowstorm ever with +6″ and there were snow showers almost down to sea level in Oregon.  The Severe Weather Outlook Area for Friday comes up to N. Indiana.  Satellite Loop here. Here’s links to the current conditions, regional radar, GRR radar, northern Indiana radar, and Chicago radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s closings, the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station (which has been occasionally out of service), the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland St. Park. Check out the WOOD lightning tracker and U.S. lightning and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop and the visible loop (daytime). If you can think of any other useful links, please leave them in a comment.   FINALLY:   Check out the duststorm in China and anyone like chocolate?

102 Responses to “Chance Shower/T-Shower”

  1. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

    Listening to the weather this morning, I heard an awesome statistic.

    The last time we saw this many consecutive days above 70 degrees this early in the season was in April in the 1880′s.

    In other words, if this was happening in April, it would be rarer than a once in a lifetime event. To happen in March is more like a once in every couple hundred years type of event.

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      We will always get a few warm days in March but to this length… enjoy it, we probably won’t see it again.

      1. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

        We didn’t have one 70 degree day in March 2011. It only reached the 60′s twice. That just shows how unusual this is.

        1. DF (SE Mich) says:

          March 2007 we had two days above 80 and three above 70.

        2. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

          Yep, 2007 was probably the warmest March we had seen in a while, and yet it was nowhere close to 10 consecutive days above 70!

    2. Brad says:

      Yep- truly unprecedented in the era of weather data records- this has possibly never happened since the retreat of the Wisconsinan glaciers. That said, I suspect this kind of heat will be occasional in the near future and not so shocking. We’re already seeing that a bit with big ridges building in October with 80-degree weather (2011, 2010, 2008, especially 2007 when we hit upper 80s and I swam in Lake Superior).

      1. GunLakeDeb says:

        Did you read Travis’ post?? The last time this happened was in the 1880′s. While I agree that the climate might be in a slightly upward trend – it’s done this before. Colorado was under water once – I’ve seen the fossils. How long can you tread water???

        Me? I’m just enjoying this “weather anomaly” because we could just as easily be up to our wazoos in snow.

        1. Brad says:

          I did read the post. Travis mentioned the last time we had as many consecutive 70+ days this early in the season was in 1880…in April, not March. And, we’re not only 70+, we’re in the low-upper 80s. The duration and intensity of this current anomaly is unprecedented, inconceivable. Check out this blog- statistically, a day like yesterday or Tuesday would be predicted to occur once every 43 years to once every 4,779 years…based on thirty-year average temperatures (a warm stretch already considred “above average” relative to previous decades).

          http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2057

        2. Brad says:

          And it is beautiful, especially the evenings and mornings, but the heating/cooling system at the office is not functioning properly!

        3. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

          Awesome link, Brad. Thanks. I see he mentioned the 1880′s statistic too.

          Lake Michigan water temps are now at early June levels. Wow!

        4. GunLakeDeb says:

          LOL!! I just got back from letting a customer test-drive a kayak in Gun Lake – I swear the water temp is 70+

          Regarding the weather anomaly – maybe we should all be buying lottery tickets, too?!! We’re clearly overcoming some serious odds :-)

      2. DF (SE Mich) says:

        .. that means it possibly happened too.

        1. Brad says:

          Yeah- that was a bold statement, wasn’t it? ;-)

      3. fixxxer says:

        there is NO global warming or global cooling. mother nature is just bipolar!

  2. Tam says:

    Are there records for the highest low temperatures?

    1. Brad says:

      Yeah- we’re killing ‘em, lining ‘em up and knocking them down. It’s like the 1992 basketball “dream team” facing the best the rest of the world had to offer at the Olympics.

      1. Mike M. says:

        Here’s a reason why global warming doesn’t have much traction up here…

        http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/time-series/index.php?parameter=tmp&month=3&year=2011&filter=12&state=20&div=0

        Amazing, eh?

        1. Brad says:

          So that’s why I don’t like analyzing arbitrary spatial units! ;-)

        2. GunLakeDeb says:

          I can see why they thought we were entering another “ice age” back in the 70′s?? I don’t remember it being consistently cold – but then, I was on the Ski Patrol back then and would have enjoyed it!

  3. DF (SE Mich) says:

    For GR region:
    http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=grr

    Click on Preliminary Monthly Climate Data (CF6) and archived data.

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      To you Tam.

  4. SS (Pwell Area) says:

    Seems funny to say it this funny…but it will be nice to have a little rain to water all the stuff that is coming up!!!

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      Oh – my allergies are praying for rain to wash all that pollen from the air!!!!

  5. Folks, we all just lived (and are living) a piece of weather history this month, and all this past winter for that matter. Now whichever of us lives to be really old can tell the younger generations some stories. “Let me tell you something, when I was 24, we had a string of 80s in March, and a couple of those days almost reached 90! It was mostly sunny, we had thunderstorms, severe ones, and even tornadoes. This was all after having a nearly non winter of course.” and watch their mouths drop when it’s 23F outside and snowing on the first day of Spring.

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Agreed… but as we see on here the accuracy of recalling weather more than 20 years ago is terrible. I can only assume we be the same way and tell people it was 100° in March back in the old days.

    2. SS (Pwell Area) says:

      Charles you’ll sound like a grandpa who had to walk the hills both way to and from school!!! LOL!!!!

      We were checking out photos from this time last year… it must have been ok weather, we had jackets or long sleeve shirts on. I’m guessing windy because I see winter hats on!!! LOL!!!

      1. Lisa (Caledonia) says:

        Last year on the 21st we had a really cold rain and or freezing rain, I believe. Crazy, huh?

      2. bruiseviolet (rockford) says:

        I have pictures from last Easter where we got a couple of inches of snow. =)

    3. fixxxer says:

      i told my kids their lucky we don’t have 6″ of snow outside.

    4. KCEGR says:

      Kind of like the old timer who told my Mom about the fact that it snowed on his wedding day…in June! (probably back in the 1910′s) You live long enough, you’ll see a little bit of everything and take it all in stride, hopefully!

  6. Jeff B.(Gowen) says:

    Let’s all enjoy this beautiful weather as much as we can. This may be the only time in our lifetime that this will happen. Hope not though.

    1. fixxxer says:

      in march yes i agree but im sure we will have a pretty mild summer this year.

      i do know these 60′s are going to feel cold compared to what we have had. as far as im concerned as nice as it is today, it could stay like this 365 days a year for me! ;)

  7. bodawg says:

    Anyone have any idea how this heat will affect the daily average temperatures? I imagine that a 40 degree departure from average would skew a typical average high of 43 degrees. Wouldn’t it take several years of temperatures, relative to seasonal average, to move this anomaly out of the daily high average temperature data?

  8. fixxxer says:

    http://www.intellicast.com/National/Temperature/Current.aspx

    man that’s one HUGE temp difference. im shocked there isn’t more severe weather going on.

    1. bluegill says:

      Been stuck in the 50′s for most of the day so far in Traverse City today. Maybe it’ll clear up and warm up a bit. Far cry from yesterday. I see GR has made the 80′s again, but it looks like the trend is down for temps around here.

    1. fixxxer says:

      they can keep that snow. i doubt anyone on here wants anymore after this heatwave.

      1. SS (Pwell Area) says:

        I don’t want it!!! I want my plants to make it through the season now!!!

        1. fixxxer says:

          still not sold that we won’t get anymore snow. look out west, it’s pretty cold yet.

    1. Brad says:

      “You’re gonna be blown away”

  9. Me :-) says:

    Tommorow it is Bye bye Summer, Hello Spring :-) I sure enjoyed the last week. I hope we don’t have to wait too long to see the 80′s again.

    1. fixxxer says:

      id say the next time we see temps like this will be july.

  10. Michael S says:

    Bill,
    I know you don’t believe in climate change, so how do you describe this heat wave? It’s so many standard deviations away from the mean that the probability is vanishingly small. When a lot of really rare events keep on happening you need to start wondering if the mean is changing.

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      First, yes – I do believe in climate change. There is no such thing as static climate. We’ve had both palm trees and glaciers here in West Michigan long before we drove SUVS and burned “clean coal”. We’ve also had periods in the past when carbon dioxide was at much higher levels in the Earth’s atmosphere and it wasn’t as warm as it is now. Look at July 1936. We had a high of 106 on 7/12 and 108 on 7/13. We had an entire week with an AVERAGE high temperature of 102.7 in Grand Rapids. The record highs from that week still stand 76 years later, all seven of them. Compared to that, Grand Rapids has only reached 100 degrees once since 1964. The 1936 heat wave stretched across most of the Lower 48 states. Des Moines hasn’t set a record high temperature in July since 1955. In Grand Rapids, the 10 hottest Julys all occurred before 1956, but 10 of the 12 coolest Julys have occurred SINCE 1956. Right now, the average temperature of the entire planet is right at average. So far this year, the average temperature of the planet has actually been a little below average (look at the incredible cold in Alaska and from Eastern Europe into Asia – over 700 people died in Eastern Europe from cold). The icecaps have been growing at both the South Pole and North Pole. And, when we’ve had a long, but fading La Nina, we’ve had “hot” weeks in spring (1976-77-78). In 1976, we had a five-day stretch in April that was more than 22 deg. warmer than average. In 1977 we had two very warm stretches of about 10-13 days each with temperatures from 15-20 degrees warmer than average and in 1978, the hottest week of the year was in May! (not June, July or August). Global temperature has been steady for the past 10 years.

      The short reason for our “heat wave” is the persistent flow from the Caribbean to Grand Rapids. We have a meridional flow with a massive ridge over the East and a trough in the West. That means warm in the East and cool in the West. Eugene, Oregon just had their latest significant snowstorm and a top 15 snowstorm of all time. Tuscon AZ had a high of 50 earlier this week and Chihuahua, Mexico saw temperatures did to the mid 20s. Fairbanks, Alaska has had their coldest March so far since 1974. If you average out the highs and lows…the planet has a normal temperature.

  11. fixxxer says:

    anybody else curious as to why bill hasn’t posted his spring outlook yet considering it’s spring now?

    man this place has been dead this week.

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      We’re “weather people” – why would we be indoors if we didn’t HAVE to?????

      1. fixxxer says:

        yeah i know it’s nice out.

  12. INDY says:

    I have a 107* degrees with my fire and no breezz out at the YARDOFBRICKS saying heloo u all and getting more ice ice baby with my sprites sprites !!!! Bill really don’t no how bloggers can stay inside on a day like this as summers blist us!! From out in the YARDofSPRITES …ENJOY U ALL!!!! INSDYY

  13. DF (SE Mich) says:

    Some storms popping up this afternoon on the radar.

  14. Jeff (SE Ionia County) says:

    Big drops falling right now with the sun out..

  15. Travis (Lake Odessa) says:

    Hoping one of those storms is heading my way

  16. fixxxer says:

    Im thinking for the most part we stay dry. I wish these 80′s could last. I hate the thought of turning my heat back on.

  17. Cassie - Kentwood says:

    I was rained on a little outside about a half hour ago! Just some small sprinkles :) Felt good!

  18. Mr. Negative says:

    Looks good for everyone North and East of Kent…enjoy the action

  19. I am all over these gang. I have some great photos to share with you all tonight. Get ready! That cell over Belding is looking decent, hearing thunder in the distance.

    1. Jeff B.(Gowen) says:

      Hey Charles, ever go to the Wesco station in Greenville? If you do, say Hi to my wife. She’s the manager.

      1. What’s her name? I know a lady named Char there, who transferred from Sparta. I stop into Wesco most often, cheapest gas, best variety of Slim Jims!

        1. bruiseviolet (rockford) says:

          They also sell popcorn buckets for $8, They are good for a year- and they refill them free. You best believe we get ours filled almost everyday when we go there. LOL

  20. Jeff B.(Gowen) says:

    Just had a real nice rain shower here. Can hear thunder in the distance.

  21. KF (SE of Lowell) says:

    Had some small pea-sized hail at my house. Enjoying the rain and cool breezes coming in the slider.

    1. fixxxer says:

      Lmao… 10 days of heat and you guys already want a cool down. How you you gonna handle a hot summer pattern?

      I say bring on another heat wave!

  22. Jeff B.(Gowen) says:

    Wow! Our temp. just dropped 12 degrees.in the last hour.

  23. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    Looks like some nice storms developing toward my south coming my way can’t wait:)

  24. Cassie - Kentwood says:

    Im at work looking out the window..see some nice cumulus clouds off to the north east! We are missing the action :(

    1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

      Not for long though they say after 6pm well see what happens:)

      1. Cassie - Kentwood says:

        Things are popping up everywhere. I really hope it rains and cools down!

        1. fixxxer says:

          I dont!

  25. Here’s a shot from my cell phone of my camera with a pic of some of the best crepuscular rays I have ever witnessed! http://on.fb.me/GGOuCh

    1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

      I’m been taking some photography all day today Charles. These are photogetic clouds.

      1. Looking forward to seeing what you got and WOW bright flash, with loud thunder right behind me!

        1. Bruno (Northview H.S.) says:

          Her pics are totally awesome!! She did a GREAT job!!

  26. fixxxer says:

    Crappy cooler weather! ;)

  27. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    5:55pm
    STORMS ARE DIMINISHING AT THIS POINT SO WE HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE IN TONIGHT

    AWW MAN I was looking forward to some big boomers:( stupid Lake Michigan it eats the moister from these storms:( I mean I like lake Michigan but not when it comes to storms because it just eats them right up:(

    1. fixxxer says:

      Gonna be like this all year again. Oh well as long as its warm im good.

  28. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    Ok why does it seam that Lakeshore counties get no storms but Lake Michigan and inland get the storms it make no sense Look at thoes big BOOMERS inland and in Lake Michigan nothing for Lakeshore counties:(

  29. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

    Severe T-storm warning over in SE Mich. That was unexpected…

  30. fixxxer says:

    Alot of anthills out already. Also to my surprise flying ants too. Never seen that in march before. I still think were in for one warm spring amd summer.

    1. Lisa (Caledonia) says:

      For real! There were about 1000 ants congregating on the driveway outside our garage in a big heap…yuck. Thank God for Home Defense Max.

      1. Kevin(Rockford) says:

        We had an ant war today too, establishing front lines for the summer.
        Nice little .3 of rain just fell in about 10 minutes.

        1. Lisa (Caledonia) says:

          I don’t mind bugs out in the lawn and down the driveway, but when they start trooping into the garage/house, then there are problems. No need to have them in our food or anywhere else!

          I wish we had the mosquito spray trucks like they have in Saginaw County…

  31. Cort S. (Mt Pleasant) says:

    Looks like these thunderstorms developed off a confluence axis today. I am in Mt Pleasant right now and there has been an east wind here all day. That Lake Huron modified air has been creating a boundary with the warm humid air in SW Lower Michigan coming up from the south. That boundary from Big Rapids to Grand Rapids to Lansing has been providing lift to the air coming from the south, enough lift to help the rising air break the cap and utilize the instability aloft. The storms are moving to the north with the winds aloft but they are laying down an outflow boundary at the ground which is drifting toward the SW, which is helping to create more storms. You can see that outflow boundary on radar. It passed through GR not too long ago which is why it has cooled off.

    Pictures:
    http://imgur.com/a/kt80a

    1. Nice, you can see that convergence area very well there!

    2. Mind if I use that visible image with the streamlines in my blog entry tonight?

      1. Cort S. (Mt Pleasant) says:

        No, it’s copyrighted by me. Jk, you can use it. :)
        College of DuPage. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

        1. LOL thanks man! I’ll still say you provided it. I have COD bookmarked, but missed that image earlier when I was out shooting the clouds.

    3. Lisa (Caledonia) says:

      Cool pic, Cort! :)

  32. fixxxer says:

    Sure does feel a bit cooler out. Not too bad.

  33. Cort S. (Mt Pleasant) says:

    Visualization of the record highs this past week. Note that some overnight lows were above the record highs! http://coolwx.com/record/movies/usa.movieweek.gif

  34. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    How long is the cooler weather supposed to be here for??? I am going to miss those 70′s and 80′s

    1. fixxxer says:

      Its iffy as i see alot of 50s coming.

  35. Jill C. says:

    We had to close the windows early Thursday morning (about 2 AM) as a quick thunderstorm blew through the White Lake area here in northern Muskegon County.

    According to the Lake Michigan surface temp. maps at http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/ the water temperature along the shore here is about 52 degrees. I went wading up to my waist this afternoon near the White Lake Channel. (I should’ve gone all the way in!) Still pretty chilly but it’s sure been awesome March weather!

    1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

      We had the same storm hit Twin Lake last night too about 2 am it poured here really hard!

  36. Carrie (Byron Center) says:

    I wonder if we will get any action from the small storm headed across the lake?

    1. Carrie (Byron Center) says:

      After a second look, no, it appears to be headed dead North.

  37. Tyler says:

    This is more typical of a March in Southern Indiana then any part of Michigan IMO. I do remember some beautiful March’s weather wise in the past. March of 2010 was beautiful and we didnt see any measurable snow, snow was gone by the first week of March that year. March of 2000 was another balmy month. I remember that year because it got very warm early on then April got on the cool side.

  38. Vincent(N.E.Kent CO) says:

    Thunder south by Ada headed right to me now. It has stormed and rained here at my place the last 2 nights. Boy the cool air now sure feels much better.

  39. Vincent(N.E.Kent CO) says:

    The thunder storm blew out. I stood outside watching until 12:55am. I only had one lightning/thunder at 12:43 and that was WSW of me. Poof. Gone. Oh well,i had some side music in the back ground of the Spring Peepers. A feel real good temp now of 61.5°.

  40. Vincent(N.E.Kent CO) says:

    Just had another cell pop up over head here with the 1st lightning flash at 2:22am and 5 more since. It started with a fairly good rain fall. I got my truck washed.59.9 to 60.1°. BOOM,just like that it seems to be done. HMMMM??

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