Record Warm March
April 2nd, 2012 at 3:44 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
Dozens watch the sunset on a rare 80-degree day in March at Holland State Park…picture by Tom DeVette from ReportIt. See the picture full size. Note there is the wake of a boat to the left of the breakwater. March 2012 was not only the warmest March ever in Grand Rapids (and Michigan), it was also the warmest month ever relative to average in G.R. We ended 15.1 degrees warmer than average in G.R., +14.7 degrees in Muskegon and +14.2 degrees in Lansing. We beat the previous warmest March day ever temperature by 5 degrees with an 87-degree reading on the 21st. That high of 87 was 40 degrees warmer than the average high for the day of 47. That was the greatest departure above average that we have ever had on a single day in G.R. Monthly records were also set in Lansing (86) and Muskegon (82). From the 14th thru the 22nd, the coolest high temperature was 74. We did have 7 days during the month when the mean temperature was cooler than average. We also did have 2.8″ of snow. Precipitation totaled 3.14″. That was 0.77″ above average. We have now had four consecutive months with above average precipitation (typical of winter with a cold PDO and La Nina). The average wind speed was 10.5 mph and we had a healthy 52% of possible sunshine. Click on the map of the world to the right of the Lake Michigan scene. This is global temperature from March 3 to April 1. Note the “hot” area in red over North America. Also note in the upper right hand that the global temperature for the 30-day period was slightly BELOW average! The Northern Hemisphere was cooler than average despite what was happening in the U.S. and southern Canada. A word of caution…two other very warm Marches saw a turn to cool weather. 1945 was the previous warmest March ever in G.R. That was followed by a devastating freeze of 24 on April 24th and then the latest freeze ever in G.R. on June 4th. In 1910, we had a top 3 warmest March and that was followed by the 8th coolest May we have ever had. VIDEO ADD: 2 1/2 years of ocean currents from NASA. ALSO: A magnitude 6.3 earthquake has occurred in Mexico.
RJ, we still gonna hit 70 Today ?
RJ (Rockford) says:
March 31, 2012 at 11:05 am
GR will hit 70 degrees on Monday!
rj is full of it, it’s 54 currently. i LOVE how people dissapear from here when their wrong!
Who is full of what starts with a f…..INDYY
70* is a good thought if the sun stays out!!! INDYY
As Bill now has indicated there is a chance that this summer may be on the cool side as some of the summers that followed warm Marches in the past have been. The summers of 1945 and 2000 were very cool have both had a warm March. The summer of 1910 not real cool (other then May)the summer of 1946 was on the cool side. So how will the summer of 2012 turn out?? we should know in September. Right now near average to a little cooler then average is a good starting guess but as always subject to change. Just remember last fall when the winter guesses were coming out and that will tell you how little stock to put into a seasonal forecast (guess)
SlimJim
where did bill say that? you guys can’t always go by statistics either slim, chances are you will be wrong.
Bill did not say it WILL be a cool summer but he did state that several of the past years with a warm March ended up with a cool summer. Fix you just have to look at the facts. If you want a hot summer you have to go down south where the summers are always hot. Around here we will have hot days and cool days its if the hot days out number the cool ones that dictate if we have a hot, average or cool summer my guess is we will have a near to maybe cooler summer then average.
SlimJim
id say the last two summers that were “predicted” to be “cool” were pretty darn warm… that’s all im saying!
S U M M E R 2012 WIL BE HOT …..INDYY
according to bill it will be average. probably neither too hot or too cold. we shall see.
Its still too early to tell how the summer will turn out. If anyone thinks otherwise just look at last winter!
SlimJim
+1
I noted that the news folks on WOTV last night ran a segment from Scotland that said the whacky temperatures around the world “might” or “may” be an indication of extreme weather events caused by CLIMATE CHANGE (scary caps intended). I changed the channel at that point.
Too much cognitive dissonance for ya? Better stick with Mud Boggin’.
No- too much un-founded arrogance. Sound familiar Brad?
Nobody forced you to outsource your thinking. It’s remarkably ignorant to “change the channel” when somebody presents information that makes one uncomfortable. It’s one thing to wrestle with the information and be a skeptic…it’s another to outsource thinking and emote anger.
…..or to suggest someone is ignorant for not thinking like you and “stick with mud Boggin”.
Classic.
Touch a nerve, did I? I know, the correct term is “swamp people.”
C’mon Brad! You are better than that. That is all you have? Better eat your wheaties son. You can do better.
Back to science…the Arctic icecap just recorded it’s latest maximum (4/3) EVER and the longest ice growing season of the satellite era: http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi1_ice_area.png The Arctic icecap extent is right at normal for this time of year. Antarctic ice extent is well ABOVE average, too: http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_timeseries.png (pause while someone tries to find the link to that old Piomas computer model)
Did bdbc die? lol
I note that the -0.07C anomaly is relative to 1981-2010 averages, and we know that period to be warmer than any other period in recorded history.
Brad, can you link to a long term (thousand year period) graph that backs up your opinion on Climate Change/Global Warming?
Pretty much all the literature.
So you are fine and dandy stating facts, however, are not willing to back them up? I asked for data that corroborates your opinion. Not a cheesy cop out.
Yours is a dishonest request. If you’re not interested enough to query the primary literature, don’t expect me to do it for you.
I have queried the information myself. Assumptions are a you know what. I asked you for some simple information that you used to help you make an opinion. If you want to keep skirting the subject, fine by me. Good day to you sir!
Remember the example I gave of G.R. January temperatures by decade: http://blogs.woodtv.com/2011/01/25/january-temp-by-decade/ By starting the graph at different times, you get two different perceptions. You need to stick to one set of rules and standards. That’s why Hansen was taken to task for manipulating 1934 to suddenly become cooler than 1998. He and NASA had to back off that incorrect claim.
I remember that example- it flopped. I believe you recruited your daughter to aid that attempted deception. I promote a simple thing- a chart of raw average monthly temperatures across the entire timeframe for which we have data.
Flopped? I’ve used the two slides in Power Points to many groups and it’s made quite the impression. There is no deception – it’s fact. Correct data and correctly plotted. My daughter is a CPA and knows how to graph data.
Why not just show global means over the period for which we have data?
Oh, I am all for looking at raw data from weather stations that have continuous data and have not been affected by urbanization and land use. That would not help your “cause”, Brad. That’s why the data had to be “adjusted” and why Hansen did his best to make the past (1934) look colder than it was: http://voices.yahoo.com/nasa-admits-1934-not-1998-was-warmest-year-494073.html?cat=58
Check out this graph from the former state climatologist of California: http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/06/goodridge_1996_ca-uhi_county.jpg?w=452&h=306
Bill, the first link is for the US only. Second, there have been many recent studies demonstrating that rural weather stations demonstrate the same trends as urban stations.
Brad,
Would you please link to the study(s)that show this?
http://www.skepticalscience.com/BEST-October-2011.html
A well known skeptic looked at the heat island bias for temp stations and concluded there is NO effect on global temperature records. Sorry Bill, you’re wrong again. Read the current literature.
Check out this graph from the State Climatologist of California: http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/01/goodridge_1996_ca-uhi_county.jpg It’s easy to see how urbanization affects the climate record. The global temperature this year so far has been COOLER than average.
Check out weather station siting here: http://www.surfacestations.org/ Here’s a few examples of now station siting can cause warming in the station record: http://www.surfacestations.org/odd_sites.htm Scroll down and look at #24 – Tucson. The thermometer’s in the middle of an asphalt parking lot!!!
Read the Berkeley paper Bill. It’s from Muller’s group (your favorite), and completely contradicts your urban heat island bias theory.
I understand you feel comfortable with making broad assumptions based on anecdotal evidence, but that’s not how science works. Muller’s rigorous, peer reviewed paper disagrees with you. Based on this information, a rational person would change their opinion.
The paper indicates that urbanization is a factor and that’s obvious from looking at dozens (hundreds) of poorly sited stations (www.surfacestations.org). This has been confirmed by the American Assn. of State Climatologists. Urbanization and land use are clearly factors that impact the climate record. I’ve talked before about the increase in low temperatures due to irrigated corn and soybeans in the Midwest. You can see the increased minimums in low temperatures in desert areas that have grown (Phoenix, Las Vegas). The carbon dioxide hyperbole will fade in the coming decade as more scientists and the general public come up against reality…the cold PDO…a cold AMO perhaps in 3-7 years, a quiet sun (this out today:
Then you’d have to object to climate maps that still use the 1961-1990 or even 1971-2000 because they include the chilly 1970s. The standard rule is the latest 3 decades. You stick with one standard. You don’t keep changing the rule to get a preconceived conclusion (Hansen’s efforts to “cool” 1934 to make 1998 the warmest year ever is a good example of working to get a preconceived conclusion – he was forced to back off).
Nobody needs to change the rules. We can merely plot average temperatures across the entire time period and see where they fall out- see, no bias.
Tell that to Hansen! And the guy who tried to use a “trick” to “hide the decline”.
Michael Mann was robustly exonerated.
Not exactly. As Dr. Muller from Berkeley said “he (Mann, et al) was given a slap on the wrist. They deceived the public and other scientists”.
There was a concerted effort to circumnavigate Freedom of Information Laws (obvious in the emails, which Dr. Muller said “were leaked, not hacked. They were leaked by a member of the team who was really upset with them”).
Dr. Muller goes on to say that their work “would not have survived peer review…I now have a list of people whose papers I won’t read anymore. They’re not allowed to do this in science. This is not up to our standards…that’s not acceptable”.
Google “Climategate book” and you’ll find reading material on the subject: https://www.google.com/search?q=climategate+book&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a
Bill, did you see what Muller had to say about Anthony Watts? He says he deserves an international award for his work!
http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2012/4/2/muller-on-watts.html
Muller thinks Bill is wrong about the heat island effect biasing temp records.
Muller has no idea who Bill is or Bill’s views on global warming alarmism. Re: Michael Mann – Dr. Muller said he wouldn’t even take the time to read his papers anymore.
http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2012/0405/Ice-age-study-delivers-blow-to-global-warming-skeptics
LOL! Good thing we have CO2, or we’d be living under a glacier! Global temperatures (HADCrut data) have actually gone DOWN in the last decade: http://2012nevadacounty.files.wordpress.com/2011/11/hadcrut_2001_trend.png Global temperatures is now COOLER than average this year: http://policlimate.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_t2m_ytd_anom.png From Dr. Judith Curry of the BEST GROUP at Berkeley: Prof Curry said, the project’s research data show there has been no increase in world temperatures since the end of the Nineties – a fact confirmed by a new analysis that The Mail on Sunday has obtained.
‘There is no scientific basis for saying that warming hasn’t stopped,’ she said. ‘To say that there is detracts from the credibility of the data, which is very unfortunate.’
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2055191/Scientists-said-climate-change-sceptics-proved-wrong-accused-hiding-truth-colleague.html#ixzz1rItgGnhX
The Arctic icecap just recorded it’s latest maximum (4/3) EVER and the longest ice growing season of the satellite era: http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi1_ice_area.png The Arctic icecap extent is right at normal for this time of year. Antarctic ice extent is well ABOVE average, too: http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_timeseries.png
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/8284223/Some-Himalayan-glaciers-are-advancing-rather-than-melting-study-finds.html
More of the same FOX News bites, taken out of context, and all derived for a political purpose. Where’s the science? Surface area and volume are two entirely different things. No one is going to believe that arctic ice is growing during the hottest fifteen years in history.
CO2 is a great, necessary thing, but too much of anything is harmful. Read the Christian Science Monitor article. …Hard to escape the conclusion.
http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2012/0405/Ice-age-study-delivers-blow-to-global-warming-skeptics
Look at my last comment…no links from FOX NEWS. The quote from Dr. Curry is quite correct. She’s part of the BEST Group from Berkeley that you have linked to before.
Here’s a different view on the end of the last ice age: http://www.npr.org/2012/04/05/150000446/shake-it-off-earth-s-wobble-may-have-ended-ice-age
If you reconstruct temperatures on a global scale – and not just examine the Antarctic temperatures – it is quite clear that the CO2 change slightly preceded much of the global warming that was going on at the time. BTW – the data for this is free and open to the public…not like the conspiracy to circumnavigate Freedom of Information laws that was clearly apparent in the ClimateGate emails.
Now, be confounded: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/healthy-polar-bear-count-confounds-doomsayers/article2392523/
In a previous thread I saw you educating Brad by explaining how norms are calculated from the last thirty year span. You went on to talk about not including the ‘chilly’ 70s so as not to taint the average with anomalous stats. LOL I just stumbled upon the method the World Meteorological Association uses. You’re wrong again. Your bias and political agenda are transparent.
“Data gathered over the 30-year period from 1961 to 1990 are currently used to define the latest global “Normals” used for climate reference. At the end of 2020, the 1991 – 2020 will be used as the next reference time frame replacing the 1961-1990 values.”
Apparently you’ll be correct in 2020. lol
http://www.wmo.int/pages/themes/climate/statistical_depictions_of_climate.php
Damn! I thought he was dead. So, bdbc how is the cross dressing community doing? Stupid. lol
The reason the WMO uses the 1961-1990 data is that it’s the coldest 30-year period. That way the current weather looks warmer. There’s no reason that 30-year period should be used as a normal as opposed to the current 30-year normal that everyone else uses or a longer period of time. NOAA and NCDC use the previous three decades: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/normals/usnormals.html Or, use a longer record from stations that have not warmed due to urbanization (http://www.surfacestations.org/).
Does this mean you’ll reconsider in 2020 when the new normal shows it hasn’t warmed up in two decades?
My problem with graphs, is they vary drastically depending on what time frame you apply to them. Look at the data from the time the Hebrews were roaming, it was much warmer then than it is now. Of course, data can be skewed as we’ve seen happen recently. Showing a 30 year period really doesn’t give a good picture as to the sine wave that is our global temperature throughout time.
Oh, boy- point to your reference for global temperatures following a sine wave, please! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sine_wave
I’m not going to point out the literature to you…. don’t expect me to do it for you.
LOL. Have you taken a single course in mathematics?
Yes. Many. Do you ever do your own research?
Well, then you understand global temperatures do not follow a sine wave.
What I meant with that statement, is that global temperatures have swung on the hot side and the cold side for thousands of years.
I would also like to see the data from this graph with my own eyes. If someone has a link to the dataset that created this loose graph, I would appreciate it. I’m not saying I’m in disagreement, it’s just too easy to make a picture with no ranges on it look more drastic than it really is.
http://www.longrangeweather.com/images/GTEMPS.gif
That is the goofiest chart I have ever observed linked here…
Exactly, that’s why I posted it.
I am still wondering how the mild winter, early start to spring, and incredibly warm March will impact our summer. Will we have record high temps then too or will it be normal or even below average? Is it too soon to tell? I had to laugh at the daily poll question that asked how was your last airline experience. Mine was great but last time I flew was in 1988! There were lots of freebies back then,no TSA invasions, and flights were cheap. Oh for the good ol’ days!
I’m hoping for a relatively cool summer- I have to work in the soup every year.
you can “hope” for it but it probably won’t be!
Several of the past years with a warm March had cool to near average summers. So at this time that is the way to go. On the other hand if we have a cool summer we will not have to water the lawn because Fixxer will be crying all the time (just kidding Fix)
SlimJim
I love Mark Twain’s ascerbic comment: Everyone talks about the weather, but no one does anything about it.”
)
(knowing full well that we cannot “do” anything except to endure it, or enjoy it, or accept it, or to complain about it….ad infinitum.
“March 2012 was not only the warmest March ever in Grand Rapids (and Michigan), it was also the warmest month ever relative to average in G.R”.
Bill what month/year held the previous record relative to above the average for the mean?
I do know for a fact, but I heard March 1945. March is a most volatile month. The difference between the warmest March (50.7 degrees) and the coldest March (23.9 degrees) is 26.8 degrees. The day with the greatest temperature record spread is March 8 with a record high of 78 and a record low of -13. That’s a 91-degree difference!
Thanks Bill
I would have guessed that it would have been during the month of March as well, as I believe March has the biggest mean temperature change from the beginning to end right? That’s why it is famous for that saying about lions and lambs. It must be hard to forecast prospective temperatures in March, because the sun seems to make such as difference during that month.
http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/hazards/2011/12/enso-global-temp-anomalies.png
“In North America, a major heat wave contributed to the third warmest July on record for the United States. This warmth was followed by more heat, particularly in the South, giving the U.S. its second warmest August. The warmth in the United States during July and August contributed to the country’s second warmest summer. Two states, Oklahoma and Texas, reported the highest U.S. summer temperatures for any state in any year since records began in 1895.”
Let us not forget that last year’s warmer than average spring was followed by a record summer, a warmer than average autumn, and record breaking winter. 3000 US temperature records were broken in March. Pretending that this is part of some natural cyclical event is thin to say the least.
Yes, but it could also be an anomaly. There are low records and high records for a reason. I’m not saying that the earth isn’t getting warmer, because it clearly is, what I’m saying is humans have a very small impact on how the climate works. Just look at Greenland, during the warm period the Vikings actually farmed that land with success. They had to ultimately abandon it when the temperatures shifted down to a much colder period of time where it became impossible to farm the land.
…A very small impact? We’re releasing more than 65% of the carbon-sink on Earth within a century. That’s not small. And as the temperature goes up and permafrost melts, methane evaporates away as part of a positive feedback mechanism. Methane’s even more effective than CO2 at blocking infrared. …Just a small piece of a very large and complex puzzle.
And look what’s happening!! Arctic ice back to AVERAGE for this time of year: http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi1_ice_area.png It was the latest (April 3rd) maximum ice extent and the longest ice-growing season in the satellite era (since ’79). Antarctic ice extent has seen substantial growth in the last year and is well above average extent: http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_timeseries.png Global temperature below average so far this year: http://policlimate.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_t2m_ytd_anom.png No increase in strong tornadoes: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/2011/f3-f5_1950-2011.jpg Tropical cyclone activity lowest since 1970: http://policlimate.com/tropical/global_major_freq.png 2011 the second coldest year of this century! Heckuva way to run a global warming disaster! Who’s in charge of this global warming campaign? This guy?: http://returntomanliness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/rod-marinelli1.jpg
July 2011: http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.erh.noaa.gov/iln/climo/summaries/julyheat/temperatures_conus.png&imgrefurl=http://www.erh.noaa.gov/iln/climo/summaries/julyheat_summary.php&usg=__7VT06-p1A_roPPtEx7wtsB6a8MQ=&h=555&w=721&sz=47&hl=en&start=0&zoom=1&tbnid=fQs2NAVnmZvWwM:&tbnh=136&tbnw=177&ei=WXl-T_KND4yo8QSu5NikDg&itbs=1&iact=hc&vpx=855&vpy=183&dur=10773&hovh=197&hovw=256&tx=130&ty=116&sig=101147401651601815233&page=1&ndsp=15&ved=1t:429,r:4,s:0,i:84 (two states record warmest) July 2009: http://www.google.com/imgres?hl=en&biw=1152&bih=672&gbv=2&tbm=isch&tbnid=qsvwHlLXIjsrOM:&imgrefurl=http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090810_julystats.html&docid=QMjcYu3cSgk6fM&imgurl=http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/images/07statewidetrank_300.png&w=300&h=246&ei=Bnl-T7fjJ4OE8ATbpNjCBw&zoom=1&iact=hc&vpx=132&vpy=156&dur=19&hovh=196&hovw=240&tx=146&ty=114&sig=101147401651601815233&page=1&tbnh=149&tbnw=183&start=0&ndsp=15&ved=1t:429,r:0,s:0,i:70 SIX states record coldest!
Maue’s graph shows an increase in ‘major’ hurricanes as predicted. Thanks for that.
2011 was absolutely NOT the second coldest year of the century. Put the Bud down?
“…the 2011 global average land surface temperature was 0.8°C (1.49°F) above the 20th century average of 8.5°C (47.3°F) and ranked as the eighth warmest on record.” http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2011/13
It was the sixth warmest ever in the northern hemisphere.
In addition, 2011 saw weather extremes like no other. Have a look at this from NOAA.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/significant-extremes/201113.gif
Yup…we never had a flood or hurricane or tornado or drought before we started burned that dastardly clean coal. LOL! Never had the deadliest tornado ever (in 1925: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f9/Tri-State_Tornado.JPG/300px-Tri-State_Tornado.JPG) Never had the worst hurricane ever: (in 1900: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1900_Galveston_hurricane Never had the worst drought in U.S. history: (in the 1930s: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drought_in_the_United_States) Never had the worst floods in the U.S. (in 1889, 1937 and 1913: http://www.epicdisasters.com/index.php/site/comments/the_deadliest_us_floods/) Never had the worst heat: (in the 1930s: /24 states set all-time record high temperatures in the 1930s: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_temperature_extremes) Never had the worst cold in U.S. History: (in 1899: http://www.britannica.com/blogs/2009/02/february-1899-the-worst-cold-snap-in-north-american-history/ – below zero in Florida!! Global temperature has been COLDER than average in 2012. Antarctic ice has grown substantially in the last year and is well ABOVE average extent. Arctic ice much greater extent than last year and now at average for early April. And yes, the RSS data clearly shows that 2011 was the 2nd coldest year globally out of the last 11: http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthly_time_series/RSS_Monthly_MSU_AMSU_Channel_TLT_Anomalies_Land_and_Ocean_v03_3.txt (pause while bigD looks for the link to the old, discarded Piomas computer model).
For the benefit of the viewer, the Polar Ice Center, the world’s leading scientific agency in charge of measuring changes in polar ice, strongly disagrees with political activists like Bill Steffen that point to changes in surface area as evidence of global cooling. To begin with, the premise that ice volume is increasing while the rest of the world is warming fails the logic test. The hottest fifteen years in recorded history occurred during the last sixteen. Mr. Steffen attempts to poke holes in the work of polar scientists by pointing out model adjustments or claiming that these data are not collected but calculated. Frankly, he’s WAY out side of his field of expertise (forecasting weather using others’ models.) The National Snow and Ice Data Center corroborates the results of the Polar Ice Center, and says this,
“Rapid Arctic warming and mid-latitude weather
The Arctic has warmed about twice as fast as the rest of the Northern Hemisphere in recent decades. Summer Arctic sea ice has declined by 40%, and snow is melting earlier in spring on the surrounding land. This dramatic change in the climate system is expected to affect weather patterns well beyond the confines of the Arctic…”
Here’s a graphic they produced that shows the sharp decline in perennial ice. http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2012/04/Figure5.png
What Mr. Steffen will say is that surface area has increased. He’ll claim that so-called alarmists needn’t be so concerned. He’s right about surface area, that does go up and down annually. But so what? What’s of concern to actual scientists is the steady decline in volume.
http://neven1.typepad.com/.a/6a0133f03a1e37970b016763a06dd1970b-pi
LOL! What did I tell ya! I KNEW IT! BigD throws up the link to PIOMAS! It’s all there is left!
First, Antarctica contains roughly 90% of the world’s ice. So, we ought to be paying attention to the Antarctic ice sheet as much as, or more than the Arctic ice sheet. If the ice in Antarctic (most of it sitting on a land mass) melted, sea level would rise about 200 feet. The Arctic icecap sits in an ocean (except for Greenland and a few relatively small glaciers). Like ice cubes that sit in a glass of water, the ice displaces water. As the ice cubes melt in the glass, the water in the glass does not overflow. So, if the Arctic icecap were to melt, sea level would remain largely unchanged. What has the Antarctic icecap been doing? GROWING…A LOT!!: http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_timeseries.png The Antarctic icecap has grown remarkably in the past year, and is now well above average. Look at the trend over the past 30 years: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.antarctic.png Look at that graph and tell me that looks like a global warming disaster! It’s the OPPOSITE of what you guys predicted would happen! The icecap keeps growing and volume is growing. The icecap didn’t even get down to average during their summer! WOW! Here’s another graph from the Illinois Cryosphere: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.antarctic.png
Now let’s look at the Arctic. This graph is from NOAA: http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/images/sea_ice_only.jpg Compare the extent of Arctic ice now compared to the past 6 years. The PIOMAS DATA you link to is old and isn’t current like this graph. Here’s a second opinion updated daily from the Norwegian Ice Center: http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi1_ice_ext.png It shows the Arctic ice extent is exactly average! And it shows a healthy increase from last year. In the past 5 years, the Arctic icecap has grown by more than the size of the state of Michigan!
Here’s sea surface temperatures: http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2012/anomnight.4.5.2012.gif Note there is at least as much blue (colder than average water) than yellow (warmer than average water) in the world today. The water by Alaska (Bering Sea) is colder than average. There is no warm water passing through the Strait to melt Arctic ice from below. There is no significant ice core data to suggest that the Arctic icecap is melting from underneath (and that a trace gas in the atmosphere is causing the ice to melt from underneath!) at all much less enough to balance out the large increase in surface area the size of the state of Michigan.
Global temperature has leveled off. Prof. Judith Curry of the BEST group at Berkeley said, the project’s research data show there has been NO INCREASE in world temperatures since the end of the Nineties – a fact confirmed by a new analysis that The Mail on Sunday has obtained.
‘There is no scientific basis for saying that warming hasn’t stopped,’ she said. ‘To say that there is detracts from the credibility of the data, which is very unfortunate.’ Dr. Curry said.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2055191/Scientists-said-climate-change-sceptics-proved-wrong-accused-hiding-truth-colleague.html#ixzz1rItgGnhX
And this just out today: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/healthy-polar-bear-count-confounds-doomsayers/article2392523/
It’s cute that you’re trying to quantify warming or the lack-of by comparing colors on a map. lol What you’ve done in your above rant is refuted absolutely none of the science from either the National Snow and Ice Data Center or PIOMAS. I’ve given you TWO perfectly good, credible links with actual data (not just colorful maps.) Your elementary comparison of ice cubes to glaciers is embarrassing. The polar ice cap melts back every year. Of course sea levels don’t fluctuate radically as a result. What’s your point? Greenland is different. So is Antarctica. Those are the terrestrial ice sheets of concern. And per the NSIDC graphic I linked, it should be obvious even to you that the concern to scientists isn’t the cyclical refreeze, but the declining stores of old ice (volume.) You’re chasing your tail with these stale argument. Do us all a favor and switch the station from FOX News to Discover. You’re a broken record, old timer.
PIOMAS is an old, failed computer model. It doesn’t have current data in it. The National Snow and Ice Data Center says that the Arctic icecap grew by more than the size of the state of Wisconsin from Nov. 2006 to Nov. 2011…and we’ve just had the longest ice-growing season ever measured in the satellite era (since 1979)…EVER! This is from the National Snow and Ice Data Center: http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png The icecap is within one standard deviation of average. It’s increased in extent by tens of thousands of square miles just in the past year. The Norwegian Ice Center has the icecap at AVERAGE EXTENT: http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi1_ice_ext.png (they actually do ice cores to measure volume). Here’s the Danish Ice Center: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/icecover/icecover_current.png Waaaaay more ice than last year. And the Arctic is COLD! Barrow is 3 degrees colder than average for the first week of April, with an average temperature of -8F. Prudhoe Bay has had an average temperature of -11F for the first week of April and that’s 4 degrees colder than average. Anchorage just set their all time record for season snowfall!
Now to the Antarctic icecap: http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/sea-ice-page/ Can anyone with an ounce of objectivity look at that graph and not look foolish proclaiming a global warming catastrophe. It’s the emperor’s new clothes! It’s breathtakingly absurd to look at that graph and demand that the lower and middle class have to endure “European gas prices” and “skyrocketing” utility bills.
For the sake of the now utterly confused viewer, Bill likes to confuse area and volume. Rich people don’t like polar melting or global warming because it costs them money. He has no idea who PIOMAS is or how its funded and regularly confuses it with NSIDC. There message is the same – decreasing volume. Actually, even NASA is saying the exact same thing. Here’s a graph with actual numbers and stuff. lol
http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/524783main_earth20110308fig-full.jpg
The team found that for each year over the 18-year study, the Greenland ice sheet lost mass faster than it did the year before, by an average of 21.9 gigatonnes a year. In Antarctica, the year-over-year speedup in ice mass lost averaged 14.5 gigatonnes. “These are two totally independent techniques, so it is a major achievement that the results agree so well,” said co-author Isabella Velicogna, also jointly with JPL and UC Irvine. “It demonstrates the tremendous progress that’s being made in estimating how much ice the ice sheets are gaining and losing, and in analyzing Grace’s time-variable gravity data.”
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/earth20110308.html
Let’s see if Bill can refute NASA’s data as cleverly as he did the others’. lol I bet he’ll just cut and paste some more random quotes from supposed scientists we’ve never heard of.
Just to drive the point home, here’s NOAA’s take. They agree with NSIDC, PIOMAS, and NASA.
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/images-ocean/si-fig2.jpg
Good luck.
Everytime that trash (bdbc) posts on this blog, remember this article.
http://www.examiner.com/climate-change-in-national/liberal-group-compiles-hit-list-of-tv-meteorologist-climate-change-skeptics
Intimidation by a group of retarded first graders from Iraq, lol. Stupid
Paul is right. Several meteorologists in this market and the station managers (and dozens across the country) have received critical emails from “viewers” that we have traced back to Forecast the Facts in Washington, D.C. Unable to win on facts and afraid to debate the issue, they resort to coercion and deceit.
2011 was the 2nd coolest year globally of the 21st century..And BigD’s warm summer is balanced out by this summer: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/images/07statewidetrank_300.png Not two, but SIX states with their coolest July ever. In Grand Rapids, all four of the coldest Julys have come since 1992. All ten of the warmest Julys are prior to 1956 (Not a single top ten warmest July in the last 60 years!).
March globally was cooler than average and so far 2012 has been cooler than average: http://policlimate.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_t2m_ytd_anom.png
Arctic ice: http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi1_ice_ext.png MUCH more ice than last year, the greatest areal extent in at least 8 years…and NO EVIDENCE that volume has decreased in the last year.
Antarctic ice: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.antarctic.png Steadily increasing since the mid 1980s. It didn’t even get down to average during the S. Polar Summer!!! Not even down to average. And NO EVIDENCE that volume decreased in 2011.
Global temperature below average 3 months in a row. Bitter cold winter in Alaska with record snowfall…700 dead from the cold in eastern Europe. Northern Hemisphere snowfall INCREASING in the last decade: http://www.google.com/imgres?hl=en&biw=1152&bih=672&gbv=2&tbm=isch&tbnid=w8QLaC5wXZ26QM:&imgrefurl=http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global-snow/&docid=dnO87mfLvXURIM&imgurl=http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/snowcover-nhland/201202.gif&w=650&h=534&ei=kyKFT-GvA5OW8gTUsd2kCA&zoom=1&iact=hc&vpx=863&vpy=153&dur=2751&hovh=203&hovw=248&tx=146&ty=105&sig=101147401651601815233&page=1&tbnh=151&tbnw=184&start=0&ndsp=15&ved=1t:429,r:4,s:0,i:78 EF3 to EF5 tornadoes decreasing from the 1950s to the 2000s: http://www.google.com/imgres?hl=en&biw=1152&bih=672&gbv=2&tbm=isch&tbnid=SZODZQ_89HwwdM:&imgrefurl=http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html%3Fentrynum%3D1808&docid=ik_P5QmDk93e9M&imgurl=http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/2011/f3-f5_1950-2011.jpg&w=640&h=472&ei=zyKFT4TsFIH89gTUqKzGCA&zoom=1&iact=rc&dur=151&sig=101147401651601815233&page=1&tbnh=145&tbnw=197&start=0&ndsp=15&ved=1t:429,r:1,s:0,i:72&tx=147&ty=78 Global Combined Tropical Cyclone Energy at the lowest level since 1970: http://policlimate.com/tropical/global_running_ace.jpg
Now read this: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/04/10/hansen-and-schmidt-of-nasa-giss-under-fire-engineers-scientists-astronauts-ask-nasa-administration-to-look-at-emprical-evidence-rather-than-climate-models/
So just to get this straight, you’re using the avatar, Paul, to accuse me of working for a secret organization that’s been created to badger conservative weathermen? LOL Holy smokes, talk about delusions of grandeur. Time bring your the old argument that democrats are NAZIs.
Back to the point, NSIDC, PIOMAS, and NASA all vehemently disagree with your premise that the ice is back. I’m not sure why you’ve posted all those google links. The only thing I can figure is that you think you win if you have more links. lol Personally, I believe it’s quality over quantity. There aren’t any climatological organizations that agree with your premise, only political activists like Watts, Exxon Spencer, and Limbaugh’s boy – Maue.
BTW, by coming on as “Paul” and calling me names, you’re only hurting your credibility.
Please follow my links above. Go learn something.
I am not “Paul”. You’re statement is incredibly incorrect. NASA knows the obvious:
Antarctic ice has increased substantially in the past year and it ABOVE the historic average: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.antarctic.png It never got below average during this summer’s melt season!
Arctic ice has increased substantially in the past year and is at the historic average for this time of year: http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi1_ice_area.png
These links are current and no one at NASA has or can challenge their authenticity. And speaking of NASA…read this:
http://1idvet.com/2012/04/10/5907/
http://sppiblog.org/news/former-nasa-scientists-astronauts-admonish-agency-on-climate-change-position
bdbc, I think they put something in your crack. Moron
This graphic produced by NOAA completely refutes your claim that ice is growing.
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/images-ocean/si-fig2.jpg
This one, produced by NASA, compares ice mass at three critical locations and completely refutes your claim that ice is growing.
http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/524783main_earth20110308fig-full.jpg
This NASA article reads, “The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are losing mass at an accelerating pace, according to a new NASA-funded satellite study.”
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/earth20110308.html
Here’s a graphic produced by PIOMAS that looks just like the NASA and NOAA graphics.
http://neven1.typepad.com/.a/6a0133f03a1e37970b016763a06dd1970b-pi
Here’s a great one from the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Again, it flies in the face of your global cooling, ice increase theory.
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2012/04/Figure5.png
So I’ve got NASA, NOAA, PIOMAS, NSIDC, and common sense supporting my position. You’ve got your avatar, Paul the Racist. LOL
It doesn’t refute anything! Percent of WHAT? We don’t even know what the graph is…and it doesn’t include 2011-12. I’m current, you’re old news.
Anyone with an ounce of objectivity will look at my links and plainly see the ice is growing at BOTH POLES:
Antarctic ice has increased substantially in the past year and it ABOVE the historic average: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.antarctic.png It never got below average during this summer’s melt season!
Arctic ice has increased substantially in the past year and is at the historic average for this time of year: http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi1_ice_area.png
The National Snow and Ice Data Center said the Arctic icecap has grown by the size of the state of Wisconsin from Nov. 2004 to Nov. 2011.
These links are current (like in the last 48-hours) and no one at NASA has or can challenge their authenticity. And speaking of NASA…read this:
http://1idvet.com/2012/04/10/5907/
http://sppiblog.org/news/former-nasa-scientists-astronauts-admonish-agency-on-climate-change-position
49 former NASA employees wrote a letter expressing a concern over CO2 as the primary climate change driver? I looked down the list and found that only ONE of them was even a physical meteorologist. So how many former NASA employees are out there? What percentage of does this 49 make? In a quick search, I found that NASA employs 18,000 people. It was started in 1958 with eight thousand. That would easily put the number in the many tens of thousands. So of those, 49 have a political problem with NASA’s position on climate change? LOL That’s funny, or didn’t you intend that to be a joke?
As far as your position on polar ice goes, again, for the hundredth time, YOU’RE TALKING ABOUT SURFACE AREA! NSIDC, NASA, PIOMAS, and NOAA all disagree with you. Here’s NOAA:
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/images-ocean/si-fig2.jpg
They got a lot more expertise that a 2-bit “programmer” and more expertise than a lot of the members of the IPCC! The head of the IPCC isn’t a climatologist! My brother-in-law is a head environmental research scientist at the Oak Ridge Laboratory and he said that 80% of the scientists there do not believe in catastrophic warming from CO2…80%! Global ice increasing, global temperature cooler than average!! You’re link is worthless, percent of what? Global temperatures trending down the past 10 years: http://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/trend-24.png Dr Prof. Judith Curry said, the BEST project’s research data show there has been NO INCREASE in world temperatures since the end of the Nineties – a fact confirmed by a new analysis that The Mail on Sunday has obtained.
‘There is no scientific basis for saying that warming hasn’t stopped,’ she said. ‘To say that there is detracts from the credibility of the data, which is very unfortunate.’
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2055191/Scientists-said-climate-change-sceptics-proved-wrong-accused-hiding-truth-colleague.html#ixzz1ryVDwXFW
LOL Keep rooting for the 2008 Lions!!!!!
Perhaps the difficulty lies in your ability to read the graph. The web address is NOAA and the scale goes through 2012, not 2008. It demonstrates a trend that wealthy people, like yourself, would do anything but acknowledge. I get it, but unfortunately for you, so do the viewers.
As far as this supposed relative that somehow knows what scientists secretly think, lol… poppycock. How about not insulting our intelligence with hearsay and rhetoric. Support your global cooling hypothesis with data. That’s the way science works.
In the meantime, have a look at this article. It’s interesting and shows some of the unexpected results of climate change.
http://www.livescience.com/11350-top-10-surprising-results-global-warming.html
LOL – 10 things caused by global warming? I can top that!! How about 882!!! http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/warmlist.htm – including “brothels struggle” and “UFO sightings”. LOL! As my links show, global temperature has leveled off (psst…that’s why the push to change the terminology from “global warming” to “climate change” or “climate disruption”).
My brother-in-law is not “supposed”. He’s a research scientist at the Oak Ridge Laboratory. He’s actually worked personally with Energy Secretary Chu. Have you got any scientific background, bigD? Eh?
When will we get rid of this East wind? I’m thinking we won’t get out of the 50′s again today just because of the wind direction. Is this why the temps are not reaching the predicted highs?
no it’s because the forecasts this year is a joke.
get ready for a HOT summer…. i hope!
-1
Off to the west and southwest of here I think they will have a good chance of a hot summer. Here its not so sure,
SlimJim
+5
I wonder if I’m on the pier in that picture of the sunset. We were there on a Sunday night when it was 80 degrees a couple weeks ago. Sat on the pier for 20 minutes and watched the sun go down. Felt like mid summer.
BEST SPRING IN YEARS!! 61* and full of sun out at the YARDofBRICKS!! Great call RJ on a sunny and warm spring break!! Bill some need to get out more and play on days like this!! Enjoy the sun SHINEEEEE …INDYY
58 isn’t “warm”
Either is the wind…… brr…
Indy, this might sound like a stupid question but is your “yard” really made out of bricks? Just wondering since it always seems to be a good 5 degrees warmer where you are. I was really hoping your prediction of 80 degree temps would pan out for spring break so I will be the first to say I’m sorry it’s not happening that way. I’m happy with the sun and hope your “hot” summer in a previous post comes true for all of us:)
YES I have bricks in my yard taht draw heat and keep in thoughts 80′s !!!! INDYYY
Hey fixxer do u scan Bill’s blogg 7 days a week or what???? INDYY
I’m procrastinating. Instead of working on the projects I should be working on, I’m just using radar to watch cars drive down the highways around Dodge City, Kansas. Most of them are going the speed limit. http://i.imgur.com/411PI.png
DUAL-POL RADAR IN ACTION! Captured this storm in Southwest Kansas.
http://i.imgur.com/XlC6P.jpg
Upper left: Reflectivity (the stuff you normally see)
Upper right: Vertically Integrated Liquid (VIL)
Lower left: Differential Reflectivity (dual pol product, ZDR)
Lower right: Correlation Coefficient (dual pol product, CC or “Rho HV”)
The lower left is what I want you to focus on. The greens and blues are showing precipitation which on the average is shaped spherically (hailstones). The purple is precipitation which is shaped horizontally (raindrops, they’re shaped like hamburger buns as they fall).
Bill the blogg is nice tonight no ECHOS!! lololololo….. INDYY
Whats up Cort INDYY….
Oh you know, just watching radar screens and thinking about hamburgers!
I check it when the weather sucks.
Get ready for more snow folks.