Showers Push East

April 14th, 2012 at 2:51 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Local   Monday AM – Showers and t-storms moved east and the big thing this Monday will be the wind.  Temperatures will be steady to slowly falling, with temperatures likely to fall to the low-mid 30′s Tues. and Weds. AM and then again next weekend.   I did get to the end of the Skywarn meeting in Allegan on Saturday.  I was also one of the auctioneers for the South Olive Christian School Auction.  I’ve done this event for years and this was the biggest crowd I can remember.  Looks like they raised just short of $40,000.  Thanks to all who donated!  I’ll try and have a couple shirts there as well.   Check out the Satellite Loop, the Risk area from the Storm Prediction Center. Here’s links to the current conditions, regional radar, GRR radar, northern Indiana radar, and Chicago radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s closings, the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland St. Park. Check out the WOOD lightning tracker and U.S. lightning and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop and the visible loop (daytime). If you can think of any other useful links, please leave them in a comment.

195 Responses to “Showers Push East”

  1. Cort S. says:

    Pilots… this is the weather report from Wichita Airport:

    KICT 150333Z 13013G73KT 070V180 6SM +FC -TSRA BR FEW008 OVC022CB 17/17 A2951 RMK TORNADO B32 6SE MOVG NE AO2 PK WND 27073/0329 WSHFT 0316 GSB10E18 CONS LTGICCG TS NE-SE MOVG NE P0199 $

    Anybody else see the word “TORNADO”? Also, a 73 knot wind gust.

  2. Deb (Ludington) says:

    There are a ton of reports coming from in and around Wichita Kansas of a large tornado reported causing a house to collapse, trees to come down and power lines this must have been a big tornado at least it missed a big city

  3. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    It’s not a bow any more but it seems to be trying to gain strength again which could turn into another one if it holds together and builds once it hits the lake and inland and continues it’s path N-NE.http://www.wunderground.com/radar/mixedcomposite.asp?region=a4&size=2x&type=loop

  4. Kimoeagle says:

    And if Wichita has not had enough violent weather already, there’s more coming that way from the Texas Panhandle, heading NE out of Amarillo and Lubbock. Nasty stuff.

  5. Todd A (from Holland but in GR) says:

    WOW what a dopplar radar loop! Storms still firing to the W/SW of Wichita. Great Bend, Pratt and Rosston KS are in the danger zone again. (Link is to KSN 3 in Wichita,KS)

    http://www.ksn.com/content/weather/images/wichita_doppler_loop.aspx

  6. Travis (Lake Odessa) says:

    It will be interesting to see if these storms hold their strength together across the cool waters of lake michigan.

  7. Travis (Lake Odessa) says:

    A watch is possible for the chicago area. Those will be moving here into Michigan soon.

    1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

      Something is headed our way, I’ve had a horrific headache since yesterday and nothing is getting rid of it, all sinus pressure but no cold. So we shall see! It would be nice to hear thunderboomers, just not what the plains are getting. God be with them! But the more I watch radar I’m not feeling that optomistic they’ll make it up this far, it’s almost like they are hitting a wall right at the edge of the lake or maybe it’s when the radar loop stops, I’m so tired I can’t see straight. One more look and off to bed I go!

  8. Tim Walters (Grand Rapids) says:

    Thought ya’ll might be interested in this: http://hint.fm/wind/ It’s a wind map, and currently there is a giant vortex swirling around the Plains. This is awesome.

  9. Cort S. says:

    The storms in Illinois are based off of instability above the ground, so if/when they die, it will NOT be due to Lake Michigan. They are gradually moving into a less favorable environment for thunderstorms. Michigan’s atmosphere at the current time has no instability to sustain this storm.

  10. Travis (Lake Odessa) says:

    So Cort, you are saying these storms wont be storms when they arrive?

    1. Cort S. says:

      They actually may still have some thunder left in them, because the warm front is lifting northward into the Great Lakes Region now and the low-level jet is bringing warm, moist air up from the south to feed these storms. So Michigan’s stable air may eventually be replaced by unstable air. So, bottom line, whether or not these storms keep going into Michigan, it’ll be due to the aloft portion of the warm front and the low-level jet, and not Lake Michigan.

    2. bruiseviolet (rockford) says:

      I think he’s saying the chance of them being severe is slim to none. I wouldn’t rule out a thunderstorm though—

      1. bruiseviolet (rockford) says:

        ooops was typing my answer the same time you were yours-

  11. Mike Geukes says:

    We do not need thunderstorms, we need snowstorms instead.

    I want snow all year long. Snow on the ground all year long.

    My interest has gone from severe weather to winter weather.

    1. bruiseviolet (rockford) says:

      Alaska is calling your name….

    2. Benjamin says:

      There are some winter weather advisories in Colorado and Utah with your name on it. Go for it.

    3. michael g (SE GR) says:

      You’ve become the anti-fix.

    4. RJ (Rockford) says:

      FANTASTIC – bring on the COLD and SNOW. The more the better!!

    5. Don (Battle Creek) says:

      I know how you feel…I’m going through “snow withdrawal” myself…this winter was just too boring for me!

  12. bruiseviolet (rockford) says:

    Slight risk area is moving on over…..

    1. bruiseviolet (rockford) says:

      or not- guess I was wishful thinking? or too tired? or both!

  13. Cort S. says:

    Here is an experimental model forecast showing how it thinks the radar will evolve overnight:

    Click Here

    So yes, looks like it also agrees that as the warm front lifts through Michigan, some instability aloft will also work into Michigan with the low-level jet and keep thunderstorms going (not severe) and a good dose of rain.

    1. bruiseviolet (rockford) says:

      Think I’ll head to bed with the window open so they wake me up later this a.m. Goodnight all!

    2. Benjamin says:

      Yeah, futurecast on weather channel site is saying the same. Storm will arrive in Michigan around 2am.

  14. Cort S. says:

    Tornado just hit western and northern Woodward, Oklahoma. There is a lot of damage and already some people who are injured (a storm spotter on the phone with the news found a flipped-over car, people had head injuries).

    I spent a week in Woodward last April launching weather balloons for a large field experiment.

  15. Scott (west olive) says:

    I just heard thunder here.

    1. Scott (west olive) says:

      looking at intellicast, it’s doing the Holland split. lol

  16. Scott (west olive) says:

    south haven going to get some good rain

  17. Scott (west olive) says:

    Thunder seems to be picking up, getting flashs now

  18. Benjamin says:

    Starting to see flashes of lightning off to the west.

  19. Benjamin says:

    Take a look at the radar map at a national level. Resembles thor’s hammer.

  20. Crayfish says:

    Here in Sparta I just saw lightning flashes off to the west.

  21. Benjamin says:

    I’m hearing thunder here in Kalamazoo.

  22. nevanburen says:

    Steady rain and thunderstorms

    .

    1. Benjamin says:

      Ah I was wondering how it is in Van Buren.

  23. nevanburen says:

    Positively downpouring lots!!!

  24. nevanburen says:

    Listening to more damage reports out of Wichita …Kansas Aviation Museum took a hit…had a giant KC 135 refueling plane and turned it 180 degrees from where it had been… waiting until daylight to see all the damage…

    1. Benjamin says:

      Yeah its pretty bad over there. At least they gave off an early warning that saved lives.

      1. nevanburen says:

        For certain!

  25. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    Woke up to boom booms :-) Strong, severe, none-severe, it’s music to my ears!

  26. nevanburen says:

    Lots of lightning with this current cell over me right now…unplugged my cell phone charger for the moment as some have been extremely close…a little surprised there has been no flood watches…a lot of rain has been falling

    1. Todd A (from Holland but in GR) says:

      SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
      NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
      355 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2012

      MIZ064>067-071>074-150900-
      ALLEGAN-BARRY-CALHOUN-EATON-INGHAM-JACKSON-KALAMAZOO-VAN BUREN-
      355 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2012

      …SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY…

      AT 350 AM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
      STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTHEAST
      OF SOUTH HAVEN TO 25 MILES SOUTH OF SOUTH HAVEN…MOVING EAST AT 50
      MPH.

      FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
      LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.

      LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
      BLOOMINGDALE… GLENDALE… DECATUR…
      HAMILTON TWP… ALLEGAN… KENDALL…
      GOBLES… PAW PAW… BURNIPS…
      PORTER TWP… LAWTON… MATTAWAN…
      HOPKINS… DORR… ALAMO…

      PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

      STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A
      STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

      1. nevanburen says:

        Thanls Todd!

    2. Benjamin says:

      Ya did the same. Unplugged my laptop and got my weather flashradio out, just in case the power decides to quit.

      (flashradio cause its a flashlight and radio built in one lol)

      1. nevanburen says:

        Better to be safe than sorry! We kept power so far! Yay! :)

  27. Deb (Ludington) says:

    Looks like areas from Holland to the north are going to get severe weather tonight:D get ready!

  28. Benjamin says:

    We’ve had like six thunderstorms now. I just got woken up by this one. :(

  29. Michael (Otsego) says:

    Good thunderstorm moved through Otsego just ofter 7am – my weather station shows 1.44 inches of rain over night…

    1. Michael (Otsego) says:

      excuse the typos – just got up – not enough coffee in me yet

  30. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    HUGE lighting strike out front of our house about 5am, woke up to that with my whole house shaking and my bed felt like there was an earthquake going on, to waking up with no means of internet connections or anything that ran on internet or broadband, no phone, no TV, no internet, NOTHING, Charter just turned in on 5min ago, there was a Charter truck down our road, and 2 up our road by our house, we only live in a 9 house HOA and at the top of our street. My duck pen is absolutely saturated and everything in it, and everyducky/goose as well. So LOTS of clean up there :-( Trees definitely appreciated dthis rain, the blossoms opened up more and everything seems greener. I wonder what is in store for today/tonight Lord only knows what surprises are in store regardless of models. I better press comment before internet goes off again.

    1. bruiseviolet (rockford) says:

      Our power stayed on here thankfully. I was sleeping so hard I didn’t hear the storms until I had a bed full of children who heard them and came running in scared. LOL

  31. Deb (Ludington) says:

    Update.
    The slight risk has now shifted to the east more the only counties in West Michigan included now are Mason, and Oceana everybody else is now outside of the risk

    1. Deb (Ludington) says:

      *west* not east

      1. bruiseviolet (rockford) says:

        lol you were wishful thinking like me =)

  32. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2012 MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE TRENDS…SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL…AND WIND POTENTIAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. FIRST THING TO DEAL WITH THIS MORNING IS THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT IS MOVING IN ACROSS THE CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE CONVECTION IS REMNANTS OF SOME OF THE SEVERE STORMS THAT OCCURS ACROSS NE AND IA YESTERDAY AND LAST EVENING. THESE STORMS WERE ACTUALLY A DECENT BOW A FEW HOURS AGO. THEY HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY…WHILE EVOLVING INTO MORE OF A EAST/WEST BAND THAT IS PARALLEL TO THE WARM FRONT. THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF HAND THIS MORNING. EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTING IN ALOFT…THE POOL OF INSTABILITY ADVECTING IN IS WEAKENING. THAT COMBINED WITH A STABLE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL DOMINATE…AND SHOULD KEEP THESE STORMS FROM PRODUCING MUCH…IF ANY IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER…EVEN WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF OVER 50 KNOTS. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE LLJ…BEFORE EVERYTHING BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTH AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORNING…THE LLJ WILL MOVE EAST…AND WE WILL SEE THE NORTHWARD SURGE IN THE CONVECTION NOW ACROSS CENTRAL IA SHIFT THE CONVECTION NORTH OF OUR AREA. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD DRY OUT…AND EVEN PARTIALLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SOME SUN…WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARM WELL INTO THE 70S WITH H850 TEMPS AROUND 13C OR SO. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE MOSTLY CAPPED FOR A FEW HOURS…ONLY NEEDING A LOW CHC POP IN THOUGH THE AFTERNOON. WE WILL SEE THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION INCREASE THIS EVENING…AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE ACROSS WI AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE THE BEST SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE GREATER THAN 55 KNOTS THERE AND 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES WILL BE IMPRESSIVE…OVER 400 ACROSS WI. SEVERE WX IS LIKELY THERE…BUT SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY A BIT AS ANYTHING WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE IN. THE LAKE SHOULD TEMPER SOME OF IT…ALONG WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION TONIGHT WITH THE STRONG WIND FIELDS IN PLACE.

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      *I* hope we get some rip-and-tear winds: on SW winds, I can kayak-surf from my house to the State Park 1.5 miles away – woohoo!!!

  33. dan says:

    could wometime tell me why the storm prediction center does not even have us in a slight risk,but the weather channell has us in the red with a tor con value of a 3 ?

    1. Deb (Ludington) says:

      Because the weather channel always does that most likely we will just have storms tonight with an isolated severe storm possible

  34. dan says:

    sorry for my typing i meant could sometime not wometime.excuse my typing.

  35. Skot says:

    70′s today. A NO we shall see day. It’ll happen fo sho.

    1. Deb (Ludington) says:

      ?

      1. bnoppe(Albion) says:

        Great Setup for severe weather lol at MI WIS is getting storms and then Ohio/Penn will

        1. Deb (Ludington) says:

          Are we going to get severe do you know?

        2. Stephen (North Muskegon) says:

          Depends on what happens and what time it does happen in Wisconsin Deb.

  36. Travis (Lake Odessa) says:

    I think we could be quite surprised at what we see overnight. Tornado watch issued for MO

    1. Stephen (North Muskegon) says:

      Yep that is a nasty squall line right now travis

    2. Me :-) says:

      It might get real interesting this evening/overnight. I just noticed that the weather channel has Michigan in the red for the evening and overnight period. We will see.

      1. Deb (Ludington) says:

        They have all of lower Michigan in the evening and overnight and west of 131 in the day time but I think it will be more this evening I have no idea why the NWS does not want to put us in the slight risk because looks like there is a big clearing to our west so that would mean we might get some nasty storms this evening and tonight

      2. Stephen (North Muskegon) says:

        The NWS does NOTHING about risk areas deb… Its the SPC. They are completely different :)

  37. Travis (Lake Odessa) says:

    spc just updated the outlook…very little change. we shall wait and see. :)

  38. Deb (Ludington) says:

    From the NWS here in GR

    Strong Thunderstorms Possible This Evening

    A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to cross Lake Michigan during the mid-evening hours reaching the Michigan shore prior to midnight. The storms will be moving east around 50 mph as they come on shore but they are expected to be in a weakening phase as they cross Lake Michigan into Southwest Lower Michigan. The result of this is damaging winds are possible near and west of Route 31 as the storms move inland.

    Below is a link to the latest Storm Prediction Center’s latest severe weather outlook. If you click on the “Tornadoes, Wind or Hail” icon you will see the probability of each of these events in your area.

    1. Stephen (North Muskegon) says:

      So it will be a squall line. Should be strong near the lakeshore and when it moves inland. bye bye.

      1. Deb (Ludington) says:

        Yep my guess is it will make it through all the lakeshore counties then it will dissipate and go away bye bey LOL

        1. Stephen (North Muskegon) says:

          Seems like the only severe weather we see at the lakeshore is squall lines. Never have i seen a supercell actually start over lake MI and hit lakeshore counties it’s always inland.

        2. Deb (Ludington) says:

          Yep so were the lucky one tonight:) and the inland counties are going to be sad because they will miss out in some of the action

  39. Mr. Negative says:

    Weather channel showing state of MI full red! Another case of irrational exhuberance?…or could there be a million to one chance of GR hearing one minute of thunder this evening?

    1. bruiseviolet (rockford) says:

      I think they ignore the great storm shredder…

      1. Deb (Ludington) says:

        Well right now the NWS in GR says the storms will make it to the lakeshore counties with damaging winds possible and then as it heads inland the storms will die off and go away

  40. Steelie says:

    Good Day,

    the sun is really trying to burn through the clouds here near Breton and 52nd.

    Steelie

  41. jerry says:

    Tornado Watch possible for Iowa and Minnesota soon….

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