Showers Push East

April 14th, 2012 at 2:51 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Local   Monday AM – Showers and t-storms moved east and the big thing this Monday will be the wind.  Temperatures will be steady to slowly falling, with temperatures likely to fall to the low-mid 30′s Tues. and Weds. AM and then again next weekend.   I did get to the end of the Skywarn meeting in Allegan on Saturday.  I was also one of the auctioneers for the South Olive Christian School Auction.  I’ve done this event for years and this was the biggest crowd I can remember.  Looks like they raised just short of $40,000.  Thanks to all who donated!  I’ll try and have a couple shirts there as well.   Check out the Satellite Loop, the Risk area from the Storm Prediction Center. Here’s links to the current conditions, regional radar, GRR radar, northern Indiana radar, and Chicago radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s closings, the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland St. Park. Check out the WOOD lightning tracker and U.S. lightning and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop and the visible loop (daytime). If you can think of any other useful links, please leave them in a comment.

195 Responses to “Showers Push East”

  1. TomKap (Michigan St. & Fuller) Grand Rapids says:

    It’s already started in Oklahoma and it’s only 6:30 am.

    http://usnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/04/14/11195529-tornado-sirens-sound-in-oklahoma-city-amid-warnings-of-life-threatening-storms?lite

    1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

      Going to be a very long weekend for thse folks. I thought a storm was brewing with how dark and cloudy it is. I wonder if we’ll clear up later?

  2. Brad (Lawrence) says:

    Some nice thunder & lightning here right now.

  3. Scott, Home in Lawrence (Van Buren Co ) says:

    And some much needed rain

  4. Benjamin says:

    Storm here.

    ~Kalamazoo~

    PS: Saw a cloud that dipped down a bit and went back up. Possible funnel formation/dissipation?

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      Scuds clouds do that, too.

  5. Deb (Ludington) says:

    This is from the NWS for tomorrow looks like we are not in the severe weather forecast for tomorrow anymore

    SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
    LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED

  6. RJ (Rockford) says:

    It is going to be another great weekend for outdoor activities. Above average temperatures and very little rain!

    1. Deb (Ludington) says:

      Tonight and tomorrow there’s going to be a lot of rain possibly over an inch so I wouldn’t say very little rain

      1. RJ (Rockford) says:

        There will be very little rain during the daytime hours, therefore no one should change their outdoor plans. It will be a great weekend to go golfing, have a cookout, do yard work, etc. ROCK n ROLL Baby!

  7. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    THANK YOU BILL!! You came through I went to the NWS website to get the address for Dorr’s Advance portion of the Skywarn class for 11am and they already removed it, so I saw your Skywarn meeting link and hoped it had the address and it did so now I will be able to make it!! Deb are you going to the advance class today??

  8. Deb (Ludington) says:

    WOW they put the two high risk together now so now it is one big area of high risk this is going to be a big day for the plains

  9. Nathan (GR) says:

    Any reported earthquakes today, or is it all done?

  10. Deb (Ludington) says:

    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=mkx&storyid=81798&source=0

    Looks like we may get some good storms tomorrow afternoon and evening well have to see if they move that slight risk over to West Michigan

  11. Deb (Ludington) says:

    Anybody know what time this is???

    1730Z
    Thanks
    Deb

  12. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    @ Deb it is 1:30pm

  13. GunLakeDeb says:

    In a previous thread – we talked about wording that the NWS uses, trying to convey urgency/importance of heeding a warning. Well, after hearing it used several times this morning on the Weather Channel – they HAVE to use a better word than “discreet” to describe storm cells. WE understand what they mean, but to the average person, discreet means modest/quiet/secretive. When we’re talking about SUPERCELLS, there’s nothing *discreet* about them!! They need to call them “stand alone” or monolithic or autonomous (assuming they’re not part of a line of storms) – ANYTHING other than discreet which takes away the entire context of what they are attempting to warn the public about!

    1. Randy M (Comstock Park) says:

      What they’re saying is “discrete” (completely separate), but the sound-alike confusion may still support your point.

      1. GunLakeDeb says:

        Thanks for the clarification (red-faced)

        1. GunLakeDeb says:

          Wow I wish there was a way to edit our (stupid) comments…..LOL!!!

        2. Lisa (Caledonia) says:

          Actually, Randy’s comment helps to support your point, Deb. He’s right — because the two words sound alike and the one is so technical, it may be hard for the average person to understand what is meant.

        3. GunLakeDeb says:

          Thanks for the kind words, Lisa :-) I truly, in all my years on this earth (and that’s a bunch) had never run into the word “discrete” ….LOL!

        4. Kimoeagle says:

          G/L Deb,
          No reason to apologize. It is easy for some one to mistake a “sound-alike” word and attach a different meaning to it. In this case, I AGREE with you, because of that possibility of misinterpretation. Another word could have been used to describe the even/situation to avoid such a misunderstanding.SO,
          as they say in Darwin, “No worries, mate!” :-)

    2. Me :-) says:

      How about “Isolated”? They use that word a lot and it can’t get any clearer than that.

  14. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    Looks like their getting started now New MD and it says tornado watch likely

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/

  15. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    Moderate risk for Wisconsin tomorrow and slight risk from Muskegon to the north

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_1730_any.gif

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      Yeah – that’s why I canceled the paddle on the White River (NE of Muskegon) for Sunday. Yesterday, there was also a pocket of activity around the Jackson area, too; because I had pondered moving the paddle to the Thornapple….. finally just gave up….LOL!

      1. Steelie says:

        Good Day,

        Hey GLD! Will you be joining the Thornapple River Watershed Council’s multi day float in August? The are planning to float from Vermontville to Ada.

        http://thornappleriver.org/2011/12/thornapple-expedition-2012/

        Steelie

        1. GunLakeDeb says:

          I saw that, Steelie!! I might join them for a day…. my week-long vacation will be dedicated to paddling Pictured Rocks N.S. instead….

        2. Steelie says:

          Good Day,

          Cool…

          Steelie

  16. Cassie - Kentwood says:

    Look at day 2, the moderate risk is to our immediate west over the lake!

    1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

      And there’snow a slight risk for Muskegon to the north:) keeps moving south well see what they d tomorrow

  17. Mike Geukes says:

    Watch the Storm Chasers on ChaserTV
    http://www.chasertv.com/wall/

    Weather Data Links on ChaserTV
    http://www.chasertv.com/weather/

    Mike

    1. Brad (Lawrence) says:

      This is somewhat a cool link. Although everytime I got on today, the only feeds I could watch were the ones where they were chasing blue skies & white clouds. The feeds that looked interesting never seemed to work, I simply gave up. As I said, neat links but it definately need some work to be worth visiting.

  18. GunLakeDeb says:

    ACK! They just changed Sunday’s forecast a TON – gone is the wind; and the storms are supposed to either be early morning or again in the evening. Hmmmm… EXACTLY like Cort predicted two days ago…..

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      Although the Weather Channel is still insisting that there will be winds in the 20-30 mph range??? NWS says 5-10. Guess we’ll see who wins THAT bet tomorrow…..

  19. bnoppe says:

    MEADE WDM
    ——————————————————————————–
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
    130 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

    MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-150815-
    MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
    MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
    INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
    130 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
    MICHIGAN.

    .DAY ONE…THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

    THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEY WILL MOVE FROM CHICAGO
    AND SOUTH BEND NORTHWARD TOWARD LUDINGTON AND BIG RAPIDS AFTER
    MIDNIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT FREQUENT CLOUD TO
    GROUND LIGHTING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE
    TONIGHT AS THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES NORTHWARD.

    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

    THE BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH
    THE NORTHERN SECTIONS INTO MID MORNING SUNDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
    EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE GREATEST THREAT
    WITH THESE STORMS AS THE EXIT THE AREA.

    AN AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS WILL
    MOVE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AFTER SUNSET AND CROSS LOWER SOUTHWEST
    LOWER MICHIGAN DURING LATE NIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY AND EARLY MORNING
    HOURS OF MONDAY. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE LARGEST THREAT
    AS THIS AREA OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH. AS THE LINE OF STORMS MOVES
    FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF GUSTY
    WINDS…DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE LOCALIZED THROUGH.

    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT…

    SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
    MONDAY MORNING.

    Looks like a Marginal Risk at this point…We may still end up in a slight risk zone but IDK

    1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

      Everybody from GH to the north are already under a slight risk for tomorrow

    2. Katie in Grand Rapids says:

      I wonder if that high risk over WI will move our way….

      1. Cort S. says:

        Probably won’t. Here are the severe weather probabilities for tomorrow, all day and night:

        http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_1730_any.gif

      2. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

        By the way Katie not to be rude but it is a moderate risk for tomorrow not high but it probably will stay to our west right now I think for the most part West Michigan has the best bet for being in a slight risk since GH and Muskegon are already in the slight risk

        1. bnoppe says:

          SPC may push the slight risk a little bit into West MI but since are Insabillty and sheer will be so low I don’t see a MOD risk

        2. Katie in Grand Rapids says:

          Thanks. It was high risk earlier for severe weather, now its moderate

        3. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

          I agree with you bnoppe I think they will push the slight risk a little more into West Michigan GRR NWS just doesn’t want to mention severe weather for some reason?

        4. bnoppe says:

          well they did in there AFD but they only mentioned a isolated chance

        5. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

          The way it sounds right now is it it going to be a squall line in Wisconsin and Illinois but with the big lake who knows what that squall line will do you never know with big Lake Michigan in the way

  20. Cort S. says:

    Wichita NWS is one of the offices using the new experimental impact-based warning format. Here is one that just came out:

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

    * TORNADO WARNING FOR…
    RUSSELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS…

    * UNTIL 145 PM CDT

    * AT 110 PM CDT…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
    TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RUSSELL…AND MOVING
    NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

    HAZARD…DEVELOPING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

    SOURCE…RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

    IMPACT…SIGNIFICANT HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE POSSIBLE. MOBILE
    HOMES COMPLETELY DESTROYED IF HIT. SOME TREES UPROOTED OR
    SNAPPED. VEHICLES WILL LIKELY BE THROWN BY TORNADIC WINDS.

    * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
    RUSSELL…BUNKER HILL…LURAY…LUCAS…RUSSELL AIRPORT…WILSON
    LAKE AND WALDO.

    THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 177 AND 181.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
    STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME…A VEHICLE OR
    OUTDOORS…MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
    YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

    HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
    TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

    &&

    1. Bruiseviolet (formerly Rockford- now Cedar Springs) says:

      I think the new wording is great. I mean seriously- if you lived in a mobile home and heard tornado warning- you’d do what most people do- assume it won’t hit you? However when you read, “Mobile homes completely destroyed if hit”- i’d be outta there and underground somewhere.

  21. bnoppe says:

    @Cort- I’m not an expert but are the Storms for Sunday Night not going to pack the same punch in Michigan that they do in WIS becuase they’ll have to cross the lake or is it the time of day or both? or will those factors not matter

    1. Stephen (North Muskegon) says:

      Well say if they develop early on.. We better be prepared.

    2. Cort S. says:

      I haven’t looked very much into Michigan’s forecast for tomorrow, but if nothing else has changed since yesterday, here is more or less the nature of the thunderstorms you could receive:

      Early Sunday morning: rain and storms with the warm front’s passage. These storms will be based off of elevated instability caused by the low-level jet intersecting the warm front aloft, so the nighttime timing factor and the Lake Michigan factor will not be important. Severe weather is not expected, but besides heavy rain and lightning, the only thing I could expect out of the strongest storms is some small hail.

      Sunday day: I think warm temperatures aloft will limit the amount of instability somewhat. But if you overachieve on your high temperature with strong daytime heating, I could see some surface-based isolated thunderstorms especially if there is a band of mesoscale lifting strong enough (maybe along a confluent band?).

      Sunday evening/overnight: As the cold front approaches, Michigan will be the victim of poor timing as storms go severe in Wisconsin in the afternoon/evening and Michigan gets the leftovers overnight. These will likely be more surface-based than tonight’s storms, so they might fall victim to Lake Michigan as well. But, with strong enough warm winds coming up from the south, Lake Michigan might not kill them completely (especially farther south). Gusty winds would be the main severe threat from these if they survive.

  22. Randy (SW Walker) says:

    Anyone heard from Fixer? Apartments in Wyoming burn and not the usual 150 complaints today. Hope it wasn’t his place

    1. Cassie - Kentwood says:

      I dont think it is unless they moved. If it was I would be very sad as I am friends with his wife.

  23. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    I really enjoyed the Advanced Skywarn Class, to bad there isn’t another one just as a refresher but it truly did help understand how storms truly work, and how to read radar. Bill, it was GREAT seeing you again! Get some rest you are looking tired, I know though for you so much to do so little time. They gave Devin a Skywarn Spotter Card, he was absolutely thrilled he truly felt PROUD to get it. I still have not gotten my card or certificate from Muskegon’s Skywarn Class.

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      Amazing stuff to learn, isn’t it??!!! Did you work with the Skew-T charts?? Now when you read in the discussions “The CAPE will be XXXX and the CIN will be XXX” – it all starts to make sense (and potentially scare the daylights out of you….LOL!!!)

      1. GunLakeDeb says:

        It’s like putting together a puzzle – and you don’t know what the picture is. Some days, it’s a bouquet or roses; other days, it’s a snarling pitbull.

        1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

          I don’t recall the wording of CAPE or CIN, unless basically it’s the same thing as the explained about weak sheer and strong sheet, and source of lift. And the biggest thing which I think we all know here in Michigan, NEVER TRUST A WARM FRONT in Michigan. LOL!! Seems we do better with Cold Fronts, I think Cort mentioned that somewhere already. So basically all in all, we won’t have the strong sheer to give us the severe criteria. I had such a pounding headache I hope that I got it. As I said, I would have to go with another Advance Class again to get a refresher, but unfortunately that isn’t until next Spring so by then I’ll need to take both Basic & Advance again. I hope NWS holds both in Kent County then all over tim buck two for those of us that don’t want to drive so far, which driving doesn’t bother me, but if gas prices continue to go up, it just might.

        2. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

          GH to the north is under a slight risk for tomorrow though

        3. Cort S. says:

          Ingredients for thunderstorms:

          Instability: CAPE is one way to measure this.

          Moisture: High dewpoints in the lower atmosphere.

          Lift: Could be a front of any type, a dryline, lake breeze, etc.

          Shear (optional): Needed to give storms long life (otherwise they’ll be popcorn storms). Directional shear is needed in the lowest couple of miles off the ground to get rotating storms.

          Swatz — We get awesome storms in Michigan with both warm fronts and cold fronts. In fact, a lot of us here agree that warm fronts can give Michigan some really good storms, especially in the spring, even at night, even over Lake Michigan.

        4. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

          So are we going to get severe tomorrow then?

        5. Cort S. says:

          Early tomorrow morning: Thunderstorms, not severe. Lake Michigan will have nothing to do with these particular ones.

          Tomorrow: Low probability of isolated thunderstorms. Probably not severe.

          Tomorrow night: Instability looks to rapidly diminish after dark, when the cold front goes through. Looks great for storms in Wisconsin, but don’t be surprised if they fall apart as they cross Lake Michigan.

        6. Deb (Ludington) says:

          @ Jordan they none of the storms tomorrow are expected tp be severe just heavy rain in the morning then rain again tomorrow night I just checked that from the NWS

        7. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

          OK I am confused because NWS has everbody from GH to the north under the slight risk tomorrow?

          http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_1730_any.gif

        8. Deb (Ludington) says:

          They will most likely change that they will probably move the slight risk line a lttle more to the west I have no idea why they even included anybody in West Michigan under the slight risk
          Yeah we will have warm temps but we just won’t have the instability because the storms will role in after dark and they will cross big Lake Michigan

        9. GunLakeDeb says:

          Hey Swatz – who taught the class?? The GR Advanced Class was Ernie Ostuno’s (the guy at NWS HQ who often posts the Hazardous Weather Outlooks and instructions to Spotters) – he really got us into the Skew-T charts. He’s why I go to the GR classes – he’s funny and incredibly informative. And it seems like no two classes are ever the same?

        10. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

          GLD I honestly wish I could remember his name, it wasn’t Ernie because I remember Ernie from my 2 basic skywarn classes in Muskegon & Kent.

  24. M in Montcalm says:

    Would love a class in Montcalm area, esp. SE, hint, hint!!!

  25. Vincent(N.E.Kent CO) says:

    Cort. I see Pratt kansas is under a tornado warning right now.

    1. Cort S. says:

      Yeah, I’ve been watching that one closely. Both the hail and rotation are going well south of Pratt. That’s good. The only life-threatening danger that the city of Pratt will see is lightning.

  26. Cort S. says:

    Large tornado on the ground in Kansas. Here is another example of the experimental warnings that a few NWS offices are doing:

    WFUS53 KICT 142243
    TORICT
    KSC053-113-159-169-142330-
    /O.NEW.KICT.TO.W.0016.120414T2243Z-120414T2330Z/

    BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
    TORNADO WARNING
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
    543 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

    * TORNADO WARNING FOR…
    SOUTHEASTERN ELLSWORTH COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS…
    NORTHWESTERN MCPHERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS…
    NORTHEASTERN RICE COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS…
    SOUTHWESTERN SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS…

    * UNTIL 630 PM CDT

    * AT 542 PM CDT…A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO
    WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GENESEO…AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
    35 MPH.

    THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

    HAZARD…DAMAGING TORNADO.

    SOURCE…LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.

    IMPACT…MAJOR HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE LIKELY AND COMPLETE
    DESTRUCTION POSSIBLE. NUMEROUS TREES SNAPPED. MAJOR POWER
    OUTAGES IN PATH OF TORNADO HIGHLY LIKELY. SOME ROADS
    POSSIBLY BLOCKED BY TORNADO DEBRIS. COMPLETE DESTRUCTION
    OF VEHICLES LIKELY.

    * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
    MARQUETTE AND LINDSBORG.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING THAT
    WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA.

    &&

    LAT…LON 3878 9782 3853 9763 3836 9811 3849 9824
    TIME…MOT…LOC 2243Z 236DEG 31KT 3848 9806

    TORNADO…OBSERVED
    TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT…SIGNIFICANT
    HAIL…2.50IN

    $$

    BILLINGS

  27. Tom (Wyoming) says:

    Salina, KS not looking very good right now.

  28. Mr. Negative says:

    We’re storm free. Our best hope is for a little rain as usual. Gardens are dry.

  29. RJ (Rockford) says:

    The GGR area will not see any severe weather tonight or tomorrow morning. In fact we will not see any heavy rain either. Sunday afternoon will be a great Spring day. Some sun, no rain and temps well up into the 70′s. It will be a great day for outdoor activities. Get out and enjoy the great weather people!!

    1. Brad (Lawrence) says:

      Yeah, so far (and I stress SO FAR) the models that Bill was talking about in Wednesdays blog post are a bust. BUT…in Bill’s defense, the weekend is not over yet.

    2. GunLakeDeb says:

      Armed with hindsight…LOL! did you not get heavy rain early this AM?? It just POUNDED rain here, several times!

  30. Deb (Ludington) says:

    WOW that is one big bow echo that just hit Des Moines Iowa

    http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=DMX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

  31. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    I’m not relying on models or anything, this entire winter, spring weather has been so unpredictable and have been doing 180′s from what meterologists have predicted, it’s hard to know what to expect, but the unexpected. We just have to wait and see, mother nature has surprised us all this year many times already.

  32. Cort S. says:

    Tornado Debris Signature (TDS), a.k.a “Debris Ball” on Dual-Pol Radar on the Kansas/Oklahoma border:

    http://i.imgur.com/syzGd.jpg

    Upper left: Reflectivity (the radar you normally see)

    Lower left: Storm-Relative Velocity

    Upper right: Differential Reflectivity (Dual-Pol product)

    Lower right: Correlation Coefficient (Dual-Pol product: that black circle west of Manchester means that the particles that the radar beam is hitting are shaped and oriented in all different directions like debris would be. Normal raindrops would be shaped all the same direction, horizontally like a hamburger bun.)

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      That’s pretty cool – when they can see debris like that, they sure don’t need “spotter confirmation” of a tornado on the ground!

  33. bruiseviolet (rockford) says:

    Holy Moly!

    Just got a scan at 207.2 mph winds in this tornado on Kansas. http://t.co/3Xm5IEBZ you need to be below… http://t.co/kRxQEWbG
    5 minutes ago via FacebookReplyRetweetFavorite
    @wxbrad
    Brad Panovich WCNC

    1. Cort S. says:

      Impressive tornado for sure! I have to get nitpicky here: Technically it’s 200 miles of shear. The actual wind speeds are 100 mph outbound from the radar on one side of the tornado, and 100 mph inbound to the radar on the other side of the tornado.

      1. bruiseviolet (rockford) says:

        Thanks for clarifying… I was just reposting it =)

  34. Kevin(Rockford) says:

    Be interesting to see what the lake does to that mass of moisture to the west

  35. Tomorrow looks like crap in Michigan, new model data coming in now and it’s not impressive to me. Heavy rain in the AM looks like the biggest threat.

    1. Deb (Ludington) says:

      Isolated sever threat in the evening too

  36. Cort S. says:

    SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
    900 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

    STAFFORD KS-PRATT KS-PAWNEE KS-EDWARDS KS-
    900 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

    …TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR MACKSVILLE…

    …A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN EDWARDS…
    SOUTHEASTERN PAWNEE…NORTHWESTERN PRATT AND STAFFORD COUNTIES UNTIL
    915 PM CDT…

    AT 859 PM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY
    STRONG ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY
    DANGEROUS TORNADO 3 MILES SOUTH OF MACKSVILLE. THIS TORNADIC STORM
    WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. DANGEROUS AND EXTREMELY DESTRUCTIVE
    HAIL UP TO SOFTBALL SIZE IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

    (I deleted a section here)

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    TO REPEAT…A LARGE…EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
    TORNADO IS CONFIRMED! TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE…TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO
    AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
    WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME…A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS…MOVE TO THE
    CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

    TORNADOES AT NIGHT ARE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS. DO NOT WAIT UNTIL YOU
    SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO…IT MAY BE TOO LATE. TAKE COVER NOW!

  37. Cort S. says:

    Again… sorry to post all the long bulletins, but here is another example of the Wichita NWS’s experimental tornado warning (“impact-based”):

    BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
    TORNADO WARNING
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
    919 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

    * TORNADO WARNING FOR…
    WESTERN AND NORTHERN SUMNER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS…

    * UNTIL 1000 PM CDT

    * AT 915 PM CDT…A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO
    WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF ARGONIA…AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

    THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION!

    HAZARD…DAMAGING TORNADO!

    SOURCE…SPOTTER CONFIRMED LARGE TORNADO!

    IMPACT…MAJOR HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE LIKELY AND COMPLETE
    DESTRUCTION POSSIBLE. NUMEROUS TREES SNAPPED. MAJOR POWER
    OUTAGES IN PATH OF TORNADO HIGHLY LIKELY. SOME ROADS
    POSSIBLY BLOCKED BY TORNADO DEBRIS. COMPLETE DESTRUCTION
    OF VEHICLES LIKELY.

    * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
    WELLINGTON…CONWAY SPRINGS…BELLE PLAINE…MILAN…MAYFIELD…
    WELLINGTON AIRPORT AND RIVERDALE.

    THIS INCLUDES THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 18 AND 33.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    TO REPEAT…A LARGE…EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
    TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND! TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE…TAKE COVER NOW.
    MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING.
    AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME…A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS…MOVE TO
    THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING
    DEBRIS.

    TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW!

    &&

    LAT…LON 3748 9781 3747 9715 3730 9715 3706 9780
    TIME…MOT…LOC 0218Z 226DEG 34KT 3723 9772

    TORNADO…OBSERVED
    TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT…SIGNIFICANT
    HAIL…2.50IN

    $$

    KLEINSASSER

    1. Vincent(N.E.Kent CO) says:

      That is a nasty one there. Been on the ground for awhile.

  38. Cort S. says:

    Here it is… we’ve reached the Holy Grail. This is the experimental enhanced wording that they have been talking about:

    …TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR CONWAY SPRINGS…

    AT 932 PM CDT…A CONFIRMED LARGE…VIOLENT AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
    TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CONWAY SPRINGS…AND MOVING
    NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

    THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

    HAZARD…DEADLY TORNADO.

    SOURCE…SPOTTER CONFIRMED TORNADO.

    IMPACT…THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. YOU COULD BE KILLED IF
    NOT UNDERGROUND OR IN A TORNADO SHELTER. COMPLETE
    DESTRUCTION OF ENTIRE NEIGHBORHOODS IS LIKELY. MANY WELL
    BUILT HOMES AND BUSINESSES WILL BE COMPLETELY SWEPT FROM
    THEIR FOUNDATIONS. DEBRIS WILL BLOCK MOST ROADWAYS. MASS
    DEVASTATION IS HIGHLY LIKELY MAKING THE AREA UNRECOGNIZABLE
    TO SURVIVORS.

    LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
    WELLINGTON…CONWAY SPRINGS…BELLE PLAINE…WELLINGTON AIRPORT AND
    RIVERDALE.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    TO REPEAT…A LARGE…EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
    TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE…TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE
    TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
    WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME…A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS…MOVE TO THE
    CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

    TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW.

    1. Jesse says:

      If that doesn’t get your attention, then nothing will. Prayers for all in the path.

      1. bruiseviolet (rockford) says:

        No kidding, wow!

    2. GunLakeDeb says:

      I think it’s important for them to say that the tornado is on the ground (plus all the other dire warnings) – so often, sirens are sounded for “rotation”; and WE, the weather geeks understand that it only takes a few moments for a funnel to drop – but for the average person, it’s “not a tornado unless it has a funnel”. And they don’t take shelter.

      But hearing that a Spotter has seen one on the ground – well, THAT’s a whole ‘nother beast – maybe they should take it seriously?? LOL!!

  39. Randy (SW Walker) says:

    just got off the phone with my brother down in Arkansas City KS- He could see the lightning and hear the tornado sirens from Wellington. Police scanners have the tornado on the ground ay 3/4 mile wide! WOW

  40. Cort S. says:

    The tornado circulation on radar passed by Conway Springs within a couple of miles. This tornado is now heading toward the southern Wichita metro area.

    1. Cort S. says:

      When the tornado was approaching Conway Springs, the mesocyclone occluded and a new tornado spun up immediately a few miles to the east. That’s what spared them. Now the new tornado is still a half mile wide, and heading toward Clearwater, and the southern Wichita metro area.

  41. Michelle says:

    This is a very scary situation and I don’t want them storms coming up here! I couldn’t live down there I’d have a nervous breakdown. Prayers to all those that are down there =(

  42. Deb (Ludington) says:

    Off topic but a New MD for northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/

  43. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    WOW this is amazing and scary and those people really need us to hope for the best for them and say prayers for them for those that believe. It’s amazing to see our chances not very high when you see the radar of the bow eco heading our way. http://www.wunderground.com/radar/mixedcomposite.asp?region=a4&size=2x&type=loop

    1. Deb (Ludington) says:

      IKR a new MD for southern Wis, and Northern Ill so well see what that line will do when it crosses Lake Michigan ;)

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0538.html

      1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

        This definitely is a wait and see deal I can’t help but think mother nature has a lot of hidden surprises up her sleeve regardless of what the models might show or say. Nothing is fool proof and we’ve been played the fool by her many times.

  44. Cort S. says:

    Large tornado just west of Lyons, KS.

    And a tornadic circulation heading right for Wichita, including the Wichita NWS. The NWS might soon turn over warning operations to their neighboring office in Topeka.

    1. Deb (Ludington) says:

      I think their going to cancel the warning because the cell has significantly decreased

      1. Cort S. says:

        On the contrary, it probably just cycled. Plus it’s getting really close to the radar so that could make it look less impressive. They’ve just confirmed a new, large tornado south of Wichita. There are now power flashes on the south side of Wichita.

        1. Deb (Ludington) says:

          The NWS is now with out power and are running on generator so it is getting nastier their by the minute

  45. Cort S. says:

    This radar image is 10 minutes old now, but here is the tornado heading into southern Wichita suburbs:

    http://i.imgur.com/mv4BC.jpg

  46. Cort S. says:

    Topeka NWS is issuing warnings in place of Wichita NWS. Here is the latest one:

    AT 1015 PM CDT…A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO
    WAS LOCATED NEAR HAYSVILLE…AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

    THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

    HAZARD…DAMAGING TORNADO.

    SOURCE…RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

    IMPACT…MAJOR HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE LIKELY AND COMPLETE
    DESTRUCTION POSSIBLE. NUMEROUS TREES SNAPPED. MAJOR POWER
    OUTAGES IN PATH OF TORNADO HIGHLY LIKELY. SOME ROADS
    POSSIBLY BLOCKED BY TORNADO DEBRIS. COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF
    VEHICLES LIKELY.

    LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
    DOWNTOWN WICHITA…WICHITA…BEL AIRE…PARK CITY…VALLEY
    CENTER…MCCONNELL AIR FORCE BASE…EAST WICHITA…KECHI AND OAKLAWN.

  47. Cort S. says:

    Tornado Emergency for Wichita metro area

    BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
    TORNADO WARNING
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
    ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
    1027 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

    * TORNADO WARNING FOR…
    WEST CENTRAL BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS…
    EASTERN SEDGWICK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS…

    * UNTIL 1100 PM CDT

    * AT 1019 PM CDT…TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR THE WICHITA METRO AREA. A
    CONFIRMED LARGE…VIOLENT AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS
    LOCATED NEAR HAYSVILLE…AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

    THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

    HAZARD…DEADLY TORNADO.

    SOURCE…RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

    IMPACT…THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. YOU COULD BE KILLED
    IF NOT UNDERGROUND OR IN A TORNADO SHELTER. COMPLETE
    DESTRUCTION OF ENTIRE NEIGHBORHOODS IS LIKELY. MANY WELL
    BUILT HOMES AND BUSINESSES WILL BE COMPLETELY SWEPT FROM
    THEIR FOUNDATIONS. DEBRIS WILL BLOCK MOST ROADWAYS. MASS
    DEVASTATION IS HIGHLY LIKELY MAKING THE AREA
    UNRECOGNIZABLE TO SURVIVORS.

    * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
    SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WICHITA METRO AREA…PARK CITY…BEL
    AIRE…ANDOVER…BENTON…EAST WICHITA…MCCONNELL AIR FORCE
    BASE… AND KECHI.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WITH COMPLETE DEVASTATION
    LIKELY. YOU COULD BE KILLED IF NOT UNDERGROUND OR IN A TORNADO
    SHELTER. DO NOT DELAY…SEEK SHELTER NOW! IF NO UNDERGROUND SHELTER
    IS AVAILABLE SEEK SHELTER IN AN INTERIOR ROOM OF THE LOWEST LEVEL OF
    A STRUCTURE…OR IF TIME ALLOWS…CONSIDER MOVING TO AN UNDERGROUND
    SHELTER ELSEWHERE. MOBILE HOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS WILL OFFER NO
    SHELTER FROM THIS TORNADO.

    &&

    LAT…LON 3791 9728 3773 9701 3753 9729 3761 9745
    TIME…MOT…LOC 0326Z 230DEG 45KT 3763 9725

    TORNADO…OBSERVED
    TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT…CATASTROPHIC
    HAIL…2.50IN

    $$

    GARGAN

    1. Todd A (from Holland but in GR) says:

      It looks like the SE side of Wichita took a direct hit. Salina is also in the path of a large, destructive wedge tornado.

      The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

      * Tornado Warning for…
      north Central McPherson County in central Kansas…
      Saline County in central Kansas…

      * until 1130 PM CDT

      * at 1036 PM CDT… a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado
      was located near Marquette… and moving northeast at 55 mph.

      This is a particularly dangerous situation!

      Hazard… damaging tornado.

      Source… radar confirmed tornado.

      Impact… major house and building damage likely and complete
      destruction possible. Numerous trees snapped. Major power
      outages in path of tornado highly likely. Some roads
      possibly blocked by tornado debris. Complete destruction
      of vehicles likely.

      * Locations impacted include…
      Salina… Lindsborg… Smolan… Assaria… Gypsum… New Cambria…
      Bridgeport and Salina Airport.

      This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 246 and 266. This
      includes Interstate 135 between mile markers 75 and 95.

      Precautionary/preparedness actions…

      To repeat… a large… extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
      tornado is on the ground! To protect your life… take cover now!
      Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.
      Avoid windows. If in a Mobile home… a vehicle or outdoors… move to
      the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying
      debris.

      This storm has a history of producing large tornadoes! Take cover in
      a basement or storm shelter now!

  48. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    The Bow in Iowa and parts of IL has weakened. http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/northeast/weather-radar?play=true

    1. Deb (Ludington) says:

      It still might reform you can’t tell right away

      1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

        We shall see what will happen as it approaches the lake, but it very well may, it’s weakened some but hasn’t lost all of it’s umph.

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