Severe Weather This Week
April 29th, 2012 at 12:49 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
After a quiet April for severe weather in the Great Lakes, we have a chance of storms this week. This is the Day 5 (Weds.) outlook from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and you can see it includes SW Michigan. Stay tuned for later updates. In the meantime, enjoy the sunshine this Sunday…another freeze early today (it was already down to 30 at Big Rapids at midnight). Also, one killed and 100 injured during a severe storm in St. Louis. There were reports of hail bigger than baseballs. Here’s severe reports from SPC. Joe Bastardi’s summer forecast is out and he has the entire Great Lakes in cooler than average for the summer and 2-3 degrees cooler than average for SW Michigan (pretty much the coolest area relative to average for this summer in the U.S.). I am close to average for summer temperatures. In any case, we warm to at least the mid 70s midweek as the warm air and the chance for thunderstorms surges north to the Great Lakes.
Cant wait for the Storms !
Bring it on
Seems like all the big days for us are usually just a day or two before pay day. :p
24.9 outside, not looking forward to going out..
Can we say, “bye-bye” to the frost and freeze warnings yet? I know, for our area the the date for last frost/freeze is May 6th.
I’m greatly looking forward to the warm up! Oh, that is right we had our summer in March!
I hope the freezing is soon to be over also. I think I started my seeds a bit too early as they are to big to be inside now.
There is no longer any severe risk for our area now:( but I am now seeing the 80′s possible:) bring the warm weather on!
You may still be in a Slight Risk for Wednesday, but predictability is too low to outline a risk area right now.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT A QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 5 WITH PRIMARY BELT OF WLYS OVER THE NRN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS MAY PERSIST FROM PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO MID-UPPER MS VALLEY…GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY DAY 4-5 IN VICINITY OF NE-SW ORIENTED STALLED FRONT AND WHERE A MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL HAVE ADVECTED NWD BENEATH THE STRONGER WLYS. HOWEVER…CONSIDERABLE MODEL VARIABILITY EXISTS REGARDING TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW REGIME. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH AREAS OF ONGOING CONVECTION LOWER CONFIDENCE IN WHERE A HIGHER COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP.
Quazi-zonal with a primary belt of wlys (read:willys!)
BWWAAAK, sound the alarm!
I will take 80′s Ice Cream will be a hit and our storms well not going to get a lot of severe weather this summer just verry hot and dry with more fire warnings then storm warnings !!! Get outside on this perrfectt late spring day highs in the 60′s tomorrow low 70′s hump day low 80′s summer2 is close and May is here to stay ….Bill’s bloggers have a great day!! INDYY…
You have a great day yourself and yeah I think I will have to agree with you on lack of storms this summer what looked like to be an active season I feel we’ve totally lost that potential now. But that is ok, any sound of thunder is a good sound.
A nice video of some impressive hail.
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=d3e_1335665295
There was still frost at 9:00. It will be nice to have some corn weather for a change.
A whole week of rain, how awesome for us.
I don’t think it’ll be a whole week our chances increase Wednesday and Thursday but before that I don’t see it happening, and if it does as usually all SW of us. I thought this would be a active season for us, but I see the chances of any activity worth talking about decreasing quickly. I’m sure we’ll get thunderstorms but more generalized then severe level, sure we will have a couple I’m sure but nothing like what originally thought. But, we shall see! That is all we can do is play that waiting game.
Michigan’s climatological peak of severe weather is in June.
Chance not whole again +1 fizzer!!! INDYY…
I would rather see a shower or storm and have it warm than sunny and cold anytime. i will enjoy our warm up no matter what the weather.
Good Day,
Yup, just checked the SPC for Wednesday with a nice big fat “Predictability Too Low” and not a single area posted. Although we might just barely be in the “green” for tomorrow (standard thunderstorm). But as we know, it could change…
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/
The CPC still has us at a 40% chance for below normal temps in the 8-14 day forcast. Haven’t seen that in a while. So I hate to say it, but I don’t think we have seen our last frost/freeze.
Steelie
Your always negative saying oh its going to be cold instead of warm do you not see the 80 degree forecast for this week?
All in good fun jordan, all in good fun. We wont hit any 80 this week.
Beware…I smell a possible fixxxer friday post a brewin’.
Good Day,
Hey Jordan! Last I checked, yes, we may get up near 80* on Wednesday which would be great! Unfortunately, I think we will level off and have a cool second week of May and that we may not have seen our last freeze. In othr words, don’t plant that garden just yet. Well, maybe your lettuce and spinach might be O.K…
Steelie
Steelie even though i hate to say it, we may be in for a chilly summer. We shall see.
fixxxer says:
April 26, 2012 at 4:20 pm
They have no idea what summer, fall or winter will be like. Last winter and the long ranges proved that.
Good Day,
Hey Fixxxer! I know how you like hot Summers, although I have a feeling we might be close to average this year and maybe a few less storms too. Like you said, we shall see, come October! Haha…
Steelie
Looks like rain coming to me bill.
Go back to bed……wake up when you decide to be positive.
Amen!
LOL… He will never wake again! He doesn’t have a clue as to what the word “positive” means.
Man…see. you have friends fix other than me.
+1
Rain falling apart, storm free and cold til 2013. Oh well, another year in the can.
A perfect spring day – FINALLY.
It was beautiful today! Warmed up quick this morning!
Woo no longer in slight risk, I can relax now c:
Correct me if I’m wrong but after 3 days out in the Severe weather outlook there has to be atleast a 30″ chance so a slight risk is not techicnlly ready until day 3
Fizzzle..question fer ya. On which date is the 2012 prophecy to occur? Or is the long range forecast to far out yet?