Chance of Severe Storms
May 1st, 2012 at 10:11 pm by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
NOON FRIDAY We are not in the thunderstorm outlooks for Friday/Saturday/Sunday. Looks like the next chance for t-storms (more than likely NOT severe) will be Sunday night/Monday (May 6-7) These are the Day 1, Day 2 and Day 3 severe weather outlooks from SPC. Click here for the current SPC outlooks and discussion. Here’s current SPC severe t-storm and tornado watches, meso-discussions, and storm reports. You can check national lightning, Michigan lightning and the latest visible satellite loop (daytime), infrared satellite (nighttime) and regional radar. Here’s storm reports from Tuesday, May 1 (10 states), including 15 tornadoes – they all look relatively small. The jet translates east into Michigan, so we should start to pick up some showers and t-storms around daybreak. ADD: Japanese motorcycle from the tsunami in March 2011 washes up on beach in Canada and a football washed away by the tsunami in Japan has been found on a beach in Alaska.
I remember a flashflood situation, in Jackson..I was sitting out in the car in the mall parking lot when all of sudden the water was up to the bottom of the doors.
oh wow – that was be scary!
not to say u r not right Deb i have seen that happen plenty of times but my thought differ, i think that little complex of storms over in S. Wisconsin will just keep developing and we will see that this evening…just my thoughts…
Yeah I’m seeing that too:) I’m thinking that model someone posted just a few minutes is right I’m thinking that cell over in Wisconsin will continue to grow into a line:)
by the way its going good Travis, just waiting for the thunder to roll and the wind to BLOW!!!!
Glad to hear all is well! I am waiting too. I had the last 2 days off…and was so hopeful for the past 48 hours!! Came out empty handed. Tonight…i have to work 4pm to midnight! Managing a restaurant does not leave a lot of time for storm watching!
I am hoping something develops before the dinner rush this evening. I usually work a typical 9-5 shift…but since i am training one of my managers how to close…i am working the late shift. I should have picked a better day to train!! lol
Travis since I’ve seen you posting on here it’s a given that storms hit while you are at work you can’t seem to get a break to enjoy them. I’m just hoping I’m not a spectator up here watching everyone just south of me getting storms. *SIGH*
If the storm is truly amazing…i will take a break. Gotta have some special perks. I am the boss after all! lol
It looks like there is a small cell trying to further develop in Eastern Allegan County. hmmmmmmm.
Just went over my head and did nothing
Cumulus Towers in Greenville, MI (PHOTO) http://on.fb.me/Jh7Mvp
I know, I was outside watching them! They are amazing!
oh that reminds me- I need to charge up the video camera batteries. Ty.
My wife almost canceled her class outing to the lakeshore because of the storm hype…I’m glad she saw through the “forecast” and is having a perfect day in the dunes.
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=WIZ063&warncounty=WIC025&firewxzone=WIZ063&local_place1=Cottage+Grove+WI&product1=Severe+Thunderstorm+Warning
New severe thunderstorm warning for southern Dane county in Wisconsin I’m getting ecited for this set of storms this may be our line of severe storms for tonight:)
Yup – look at the line starting to fire across the lake at a diagonal
Travis, what restaurant do you work at?
Hi Nathan. I manage a McDonalds. It is a very demanding job. I really enjoy my work. I get to talk to people everyday. We are like a big family at my store.
This cell is getting longer and stronger as we speak I hope it hits here severe:)
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=MKX&loop=yes
The storms near Madison (Wisconsin) seem to be heading in our direction. It might get real interesting late afternoon or in the evening. It is very hot and humid here in North East Ionia county. Perfect conditions for strong thunderstorms. We will see
Agreed:) and there getting longer too so it might end up forming into a squall line:)
Go back a page, you two – and check out the HRRR forecast model Cort posted. So far, the actual storms are pretty much copying the model….
Severe thunderstorm watch over lake Michigan!
Should be a severe thunderstorm watch in our area within the next couple hours:) I’m getting excited!
I won’t count us completely out…weather channel still has pretty much all of lower Michigan covered in red.
Oh, and we are 90 degrees here in Coopersville
For all of you thinking Lake Michigan might do something to these storms look east of Milwaukee Lake Michigan is actually igniting them this line over in Wisconsin has a good chance of hitting West Michigan:)
It is most definitely TRYING to do something and stay together, now the question is, how will they react coming on shore??? Will they weaken and reignite E of GR or stay together long and strong or severe? I’m TRYING not to get excited because I’ve seen to many times storms building in Wi, strengthening over the lake to only hit shore/bubble and deteriate but rebuild East of GR. I’m almost afraid we’ll see that.
Yep JOrdan the lake seems to be enchancing storms and generating them right over the lake. Could be looking at some hail this time.
Yep watch coming for West Michigan very soon One is now up for Wisconsin all the way to the lakeshore. Get ready for some big hailers today!
And theres even storms igniting to our west of lake Michigan Stephen:) get Ready Stephen and all of West Michigan!
Watch issued for southern wisconsin and northern Ill.
I’ll be back when the storms form later, I just wanted to say that the temperature is 87 over here in Grand Rapids!
Here is the meat of the discussion regarding the watch just issued
” DISCUSSION…STORMS ARE INCREASING OVER SRN WI ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY LEFT IN THE WAKE OF MCS NOT OVER NRN LOWER MI. ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
NRN IL SWWD. WITH MLCAPE IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE AND EFFECTIVE
VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 25-35 KT…SOME UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE IS LIKELY. GREATEST THREAT IN THE NEAR TERM
WILL BE SEVERE HAIL. HOWEVER…SOME UPSCALE GROWTH INTO LINE
SEGMENTS/CLUSTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF STORM COVERAGE INCREASES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THUS A DAMAGING WIND THREAT COULD EVOLVE
LATER TODAY.”
Wow these storms sure have ALOT of instability to work with!:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s16/sbcp/sbcp.gif?1308686725939
I’m thinking a new MD will be issued for our area anytime now with a watch in the next 3 hours:)
Feels like a great day for storms!!!
Watch out for the storms in wisconsin they are beginning to make a line.
Yes
Good Day,
Severe thunderstorm watch has been issued over the lake right up to the lakeshore. Inland areas to follow soon?
Steelie
Thats the plan Steelie. Should be issued soon. Line being form in Wisc. Not long till we start our fun!
Good Day,
That didn’t take long did it?
* THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
* SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WHERE THE STORMS PERSIST…LOCALLY
MORE THAN 3 INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL. HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN EXCESS OF AN INCH PER HOUR WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.
* FLASH FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS ALONG WITH SMALL STREAMS AND
RIVERS MAY OCCUR.
Steelie
It looks to me that all these storms over the lake are just going to keep training into the Oceana, Mason county area.
Well the storms in Wisc they form a line the squall lines generally turn eastward when they Bow out.
The severe storm in osceola county is moving east
Stephen watch out we may end up Getting two sets of storm one over lake Michigan right now which seems to be intensifying and then in Wisconsin!
Yep that storm is developing quite the hail core it has turned east now Jordan.
A line is starting to form over the lake. Who knows, maybe something will form in the bubble here ^_^…
Conditions are ripe for significant storm development! I stepped out for 5 minutes and i am dripping with sweat!
Wow that storm over the lake is getting a bigger hail core now. Its heading right toward Muskegon!
We may end up getting two good severe storms get ready Stephen
-Jordan
New special marine warning on those storms over lake Michigan and they seem to be headed right toward Muskegon county
Does that look like a small hook near the bottom?
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=1&frame=0&delay=15&scale=0.529&noclutter=0&ID=MKX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=0.529¢erx=249¢ery=214&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH JUST ISSUED!!
T-Storm Watch extended down to IN border
My weather radio alarm just went off!
There it is SEVERE TSTORM WATCH!! Woo
Look at those storms over Lake Michigan Stephen I’m starting to get excited for those
New severe thunderstorm watch YAY:)
Watch just issued for the rest of the viewing area! ITS HAPPENING!
It is starting to look like a very heavy rain event as the line shifts slowly south into tonight. If the storms keep training it will be hard for them to be severe especially with the borderline shear.
Going down to lake Michigan to watch these storms come through should be a good time! Bringing the camera will post pictures.
Sounds like fun! Can’t wait to see them
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0231.html watch info
Those storms over lake Michigan are intensifying:) and are heading right toward Muskegon and Twin Lake:)
see told u Jordan!!!
1.75″ hail reported in Mason County.
Not to be a downer but I still see most of the activity north of GR (as much as I don’t want it to be). Even the storms west of Milwaukee are moving ENE. GR will need to see either a.) a shift or b.) development southwest of MKE to get into the mix.
i’m in twin lake…hearing thunder in the distance…ugh…anyone out there feel like calming my nerves??? lol
Hi Mary:) it’s nice to have someone else in Twin Lake spotting these storms too:)
Get ready for the next two hours Mary it will get intense!
Way to calm Mary’s nerves, Jordan!!!
LOL that’s what I said too!
Get ready NOW west michigan WIND DAMAGE is on its way!!!!!
http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/michigan/weather-radar?play=true
Those storms look intense:)
Check out the HRRR: http://bit.ly/Jhgo58 It shows the activity in WI and Lake MI to form into a squall line and move through LWR MI. This makes sense.
Yup I agree. I’ve read so much today and last night I don’t remember- but somewhere in one of the updates it made it sound like there was a good chance we’d get a squall line coming through here.
They will get more intense when they hit the main land!! In the WARM MOIST AIR!!!
Agreed Charles
Bill has started a new thread.. See you on the other side.
Fixxxer must be out storm chasing