Chance of Severe Storms
May 1st, 2012 at 10:11 pm by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
NOON FRIDAY We are not in the thunderstorm outlooks for Friday/Saturday/Sunday. Looks like the next chance for t-storms (more than likely NOT severe) will be Sunday night/Monday (May 6-7) These are the Day 1, Day 2 and Day 3 severe weather outlooks from SPC. Click here for the current SPC outlooks and discussion. Here’s current SPC severe t-storm and tornado watches, meso-discussions, and storm reports. You can check national lightning, Michigan lightning and the latest visible satellite loop (daytime), infrared satellite (nighttime) and regional radar. Here’s storm reports from Tuesday, May 1 (10 states), including 15 tornadoes – they all look relatively small. The jet translates east into Michigan, so we should start to pick up some showers and t-storms around daybreak. ADD: Japanese motorcycle from the tsunami in March 2011 washes up on beach in Canada and a football washed away by the tsunami in Japan has been found on a beach in Alaska.
Getting some thunder now:) storms are getting really close but we don’t need anymore of this heavy rain in Ludington as we already had 3″ this morning
I checked the NOAA Hydrology website – and the rivers up there are rapidly rising!!
Why does it seem that northern Michigan keeps getting these storms come on storms get going in West Michigan:)
Really poring here now and lightning and thundering:)
MESO http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0674.html
Oh yeah baby bring the watch on!!! It’s getting muggy up my way now so hoping, hoping, hoping for the best. I don’t think the lake or cloud cover will affect these storms.
I don’t understand the MD – unless things really heat up and activity develops west of us. It just looks like the northern part of the state will get most everything as of now.
EDIT: Trying not to sound like fixxxer. Just think it’ll be for GR northward!
Mr.Negative I’m happy were under a Meso
Me too…believe me.
THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THERE IS INCREASING CONCERN
THAT AN ELONGATED CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE…INITIALLY
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT…ACROSS ECNTRL WI
INTO LOWER MI. THE STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS OCCURRING
FROM SERN WI INTO SRN LOWER MI AND THIS WILL AID DESTABILIZATION FOR
ROBUST NEAR-SFC BASED STORMS NEAR THE WARM FRONT. CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THE PROBABILITY OF A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH NEEDED ACROSS THIS REGION IS INCREASING.
its saying that these will expand and increase as they move through our area, because of all the surface based energy….
It’s 90 in Allegan now….
It is icky sticky outside right now, made mowing the lawn awful.
I’m thinking severe thunderstorm watch by 1:)
yeah im thinking about the same Jordan between 1-2pm
Visible sat shows lots of clearing out there. Heating up!
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16#
Sorry, click on the Observations tab and then visible sat.
Just checked radar again and there is a big red blob sitting right over the area up north (scottville custer area) where our trailer is. I do think my pond will be over flowing this weekend!
Yeah – the Up North rivers out to be frisky this weekend – and I have to work
I meant “ought”
I’m sure the PM in Scottville will really be up
NOAA has a prediction tagged on the PM – they say by the weekend, it ought to be up into the “action” stage of 4.6′ (it was running at 2′ before the rain started)
89.6! Sun makes it all the worse, come on storms!
How odd, accuweather shows only 76 here.. Not sure my thermometer can be THAT wrong, quite hot out.
Down to 84, wonder why it jumped up so high.
Next update in 10 minutes I hope a moderate risk:)
Click Here for the latest HRRR model prediction of what might happen this afternoon. Possibly a line of strong-severe thunderstorms after 4 pm.
MLCAPE values are about 2500 J/kg in southern Lower Michigan. That’s pretty high. Shear is not terribly impressive right now for southern Lower Michigan, but that could change this afternoon if the high-shear environment in Wisconsin moves toward Michigan.
So Cort if you were forecasting for SPC would you go for a MOD Risk or stick with the slight
bnoppe right now it depends the NWS will do their update in a few minutes be watching
Since the southernmost extent of this possible line is still in question, and I have concerns about how Lake Michigan might diminish these storms somewhat, I will stick with a high-end (30%) Slight Risk for now. Once they hit the highly unstable air inland, they might go good, but then the low amounts of shear concerns me how well these storms are going to sustain themselves for a long period of time as they travel across the state.
So far Lake Michigan has been feeding the storms for northern Michigan so I’m not to concerned about the Lake
Jordan — the non-severe storms overnight have been based on instability aloft, so they haven’t cared about Lake Michigan in the least, as I predicted last night. But now this afternoon the storms will be increasingly based on/near surface instability, so Lake Michigan might diminish them slightly. I think thunderstorms will survive across Lake Michigan, but they might not be severe until they reach inland Michigan.
There is the 4pm update so I hear what your saying
So in which they will weaken a cross the lake, hit shore move through as general t-storms or just plain rain and then intensify once they move E of GR heading towards Lansing/Detroit area where they always get it. That is what I can see happening.
YAY:) now I’m defiantly sure well be under a watch in between now and 3pm Get ready West Michigan it could be an active evening:)
You do know as past experience if NWS issues a watch nothing will happen but if they don’t something will. I think they are waiting to see what is taking place out South and West and how everything is coming together, by the sounds last night was suppose to determine today’s weather and everything fell in place for this event today/tonight so we’ll see. BTW just giving NWS a hard time, got to pick on someone all out of fun.
Still in slight.
Anybody have the NWS update link ?
Im not trying to be a negative Nancy but I see it going North and South..of GR/Kentwood, anyway! I really hope we get some good storms but my gut instinct is telling me once again, bust. :\
UPDATE-
…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SCNTRL TX…
…MN/WI EAST TO NRN LOWER MI…
A COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN PRESENTS ITSELF THIS MORNING WITH ONGOING
DEEP CONVECTION FOCUSED NEAR WEAK FRONTAL WAVES IN SRN MN AND
CNTRL/ERN WI. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND FORCING EXIST NEAR THE LOW
CENTERS…AND ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM MN TO
NRN LOWER MI…TO SUSTAIN CLUSTERS OF STORMS…OCCASIONALLY
PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL…AMIDST EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40KT.
RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS ACROSS MN AND WI WAS LIKELY LIMITING GREATER STORM INTENSITY
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER…SOME LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR CONTINUING
ASCENT WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR SHOULD BE PROVIDED BY THE LOW AMPLITUDE
CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW OVER IA/MN. AS DOWNSTREAM
AIRMASS ALONG THE FRONT OVER MI CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE…EXPECT
MORE ROBUST STORM UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP WITH THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
AND HIGH WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. REFER TO SWOMCD 674
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS AND WATCH PROGNOSIS.
Still in the slight risk but at the high end of it… I will take that.
Still in the 30%:) were defiantly going to get some nasty storms:)
I love defying nature too. Let’s see if we can burst the Grand Rapids bubble.
I certainly hope so Cort, I certainly hope so, that way someone that we all know and love doesn’t get the “I told you so people, it’s the GR Bubble” attitude.
But I do see them weakening a cross the lake, hit land and reintensify E of GR. That is how it seems to work with these systems and the lake
I’m keeping my eye on those storms that are now entering WIsc there moving to the southwest and appear to be building Thoughts?
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/uppermissvly_loop.php
O wait southeast
Watch that little storm just come out of nowhere near Madison!! If we (south of GR) get anything, it’ll be one of those pop-up storms, I’ll bet?
Just went outside, humidity has dropped significantly, and the clouds are blocking the sun.
Hello Bloggers! Saw we were under a Meso Discussion! So…How is everyone doing today?
Not in the watch though from m-20 to the north Dang it:(
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/grr/
To everyone wishing for that watch we didn’t go under it:(
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/grr/
That’s not all that shocking since most of this round will go to the north, the watch goes until 6pm, I still think will get a watch later today after 4pm
I’m encouraged by being in a Flood Advisory/watch – at least we’ll get something wet??
Later this evening will be a better chance for us I believe
What about Muskegon area any thoughts?
I see a bit of a boundary on satellite that’s drifting around the I-96 corridor. There is cooler air to the north due to all the clouds there have been up there so far, and warmer air to the south. Along the boundary, right over GR, are some clouds. That’s probably what Yup in Grandville is seeing. The hot, humid air seems like it’ll return to Grandville as this boundary seems to want to drift north.
Since the triggering mechanism for West Michigan’s thunderstorms is the big question, it’s possible that this boundary could focus random thunderstorm development along it this afternoon.
So is Muskegon county going to get hit Cort?
Jordan… I’m having a hard time keeping up with all your questions.
Answer: I don’t know.
nice bow echo up north why can’t that hit here?
We are still included in the discussion from earlier. I am sure we will be in some sort of watch later this afternoon. Since they already have thunderstorms up there…they should intensify.
Do you think Muskegon county will be included in that watch?
Mesoscale Discussion 674 will expire at 1 pm and be removed from the site. The watch to our north is the outcome of that discussion. But… should storms form to West Michigan’s West-Southwest, Grand Rapids has the ability to extend the severe thunderstorm watch to the I-94 counties any time it wishes.
Just read on the NWS and they think anybody from Gr to the south will get some storm exploding soon why can’t it be here? I’m mad:(
It just really dark out here! lol
Just got an additional 2″ up here bringing the storm total so far today of 5″ of rain !
Wow. The NWS has issued a Flash Flood Warning for your area, and they have re-issued the FFW for Lake County as storms continue to train across the area.
There are some parking lots up here under water and my friends basement is completely flooded!
Really WOW!
Anythoughts on Northern Ionia County getting anything?
All I know is my head is about to explode and I don’t think the humidity here in Muskegon is that high to affect my head. As far as I’m concerned these storms can go North and South of Muskegon cause I don’t do severe weather and my kids are usually wrapped around me when it hits =( Not to mention the dog hides
Your negative it can hit Muskegon all it wants I’ll be ready:)
My head/sinus’s were ready to explode this morning as well, but did take an AleveD, but it was really cool up in Cedar Springs this morning so I believe I’m close to that boundary Cort is talking about but it’s heating up rather nicely up here now, sun poking through from time/time. I really do hope for some action up here it’s been a boring up here for some time now, not just this year or last, but for several!
OK so since the 30% wind only goes partially into west MI this is do to a lack of high sheer right?
Nice update from the NWS:
“UPDATED REFLECTS ADDITION OF SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH 22Z.
BOW ECHO MOVING ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL MOVE ONSHORE NORTH
OF PENTWATER. THE NRN ROWS MAY BE CLIPPED BY THIS STORM. DAMAGING
WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS 45-55KS BULK
SHEAR AVAILABLE ACROSS THE FAR NRN CWA. SHEAR RAPIDLY FALLS OFF
SOUTH OF THERE. HOWEVER…INSTABILITY RAPIDLY INCREASES ACCROSS
THE CENTRAL/SRN CWA WHERE LI/S HAVE FALLEN TO -8C. IT/S POSSIBLE
THAT ANOTHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY AS
THESE STORMS MOVE THROUGH.”
YAY I hope:)
Looks like something is trying to form in Wisconsin lets hope:)
I have “storm nesting” today. That is where I make sure all the dishes are done, all the vacuuming is finished, all the laundry done, everyone has showers/baths etc… That happens whenever I feel like there’s a chance we might lose power for an evening or day or two. HAHA!
ROFLMAO so have I!!! I’m filling up empty milk gallons, which I have been all week and last, cleaning out my duck pen, and all that outdoorsy stuff, dishes, ect. But I’m always doing that! Went to Sam’s Club got a new Shed to put up after the storm, ect.
LOL!!! That’s a good word: “storm nesting” – I sort of do the same thing. I think city folks forget that we lose our WATER when the power goes out, also…. I at least have ONE blessing – I can always flush my toilet with a bucket of water dipped from the lake
I’m just glad there’s somthing going on April was BORING
INSTABILITY RAPIDLY INCREASES ACCROSS
THE CENTRAL/SRN CWA WHERE LI/S HAVE FALLEN TO -8C.
Explin what this means please
Means that storm will get going
I’m pretty sure LI/S refers to “Lift Indices” a measure of the lift.
“LI is generally scaled as follows:
LI 6 or Greater, Very Stable Conditions
LI Between 1 and 6 : Stable Conditions, Thunderstorms Not Likely
LI Between 0 and -2 : Slightly Unstable, Thunderstorms Possible, With Lifting Mechanism (i.e., cold front, daytime heating, …)
LI Between -2 and -6 : Unstable, Thunderstorms Likely, Some Severe With Lifting Mechanism
LI Less Than -6: Very Unstable, Severe Thunderstorms Likely With Lifting Mechanism”
Lifted Index — not a measure of lift (triggering mechanism), but another way to measure instability. CAPE is another way to measure instability.
Negative LIs are unstable. The bigger the negative number, the more unstable the atmosphere is.
All that Michigan needs now is a triggering mechanism.
Yea, looks like they are all heading northeast of sw mi at the moment.
Sun poping out here now:0 temp has went from 70 to 78 now here in Twin Lake within the last hour I’m ready for severe storms:)
*
I meant this not this :0
Dont worry Jordan you will see some severe weather late afternoon into this evening, just count on it no need to worry… now im thinking we will see a watch by 3-3:30pm….
I hope:) that watch may be extended south later
Suns been out here for the last hr or so . Humid and now have the a/c on. Maybe a pop up t-storm coming later.
im seeing some cells trying to pop in Newaygo County
@ Jordan I think the storms will miss you and then redevelop inland not trying to be negative but in the past that’s what has happend don’t count on severe storms for your area tonight Jordan I think anyone from the 2nd row of counties away from lake Michigan and inland will have the best threat for severe storms
Aww man:( that makes me sad:(
Hello Jordan, Clint, Jeff, and Cort!! How are u all doing today?? Who’s excited??
Hi Travis.. Fingures crossed here.
Keep em crossed!!!
Doing well Travis. Anticipation is half the fun!
Click Here to see the latest prediction from the HRRR model. It still wants to develop storms over southern Wisc and northern Ill this afternoon and take a line of severe storms across West Michigan after 4 pm.
I know!! I love the waiting/tracking process! Its fun to track the storms to your town…then when they arrive…take a tracking break…and go enjoy the show!
That is a fun website!! Just made me rethink meeting a friend in GR at 6 PM…..LOL!!
Me:) but Deb(Ludington)says they wont hit Lake shore counties but redevelop inland is that correct or wrong?
Deb got that information from me, Jordan. And the truth of the matter is, it might not even matter anymore as air over Lake Michigan is still somewhat unstable and continues to grow slightly more unstable. The latest run of the HRRR model still wants to give you and everyone else a line of storms around dinner time.
How Considerned should we be with the flood potential tonight?
Becuase it looks like Deb is getting pounded with heavy rain
Oh I am so far I have counted 3 parking lots under water!
Dude!!! Check out the CAPE VALUES!!
http://spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=20#
Here’s what’s going on…There’s a big ol pot of severe weather that mother nature is brewin up, the stove is on high(SUN) then ingretients are coming togther(CAPE/Sheer) and now all we need is for something to take off the lid and were in business