Japanese Model seasonal forecastsMay 21st, 2012 at 7:06 pm by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
Click on the graphics to enlarge. This is the latest Japanese model seasonal forecast for summer (left) and next winter (right). The red indicates areas that are expected to be warmer than average and the blue indicates areas that are expected to be colder than average. The Japanese model was one of the few model forecasts that predicted a milder winter for last winter. It’s got us a little warmer than average for the summer (I’m on board with the summer being a little bit warmer than average) and it’s forecasting a lot of cold air over North America next winter. The preliminary CFS model is also showing temperatures on the cool side for Michigan next winter as well. It’s too early to commit, but we’ve had some cold winters in the eastern U.S. when La Nina fades into a weak El Nino. The winters of the late 70s were cold and snowy here and they followed springs with extended periods of well above-normal temperatures. ALSO: Fairbanks, Alaska reached 70 degrees on Monday (warmer than G.R. and most of Lower Michigan on Monday). This was only one day behind average. Fairbanks averages 55 days that hit 70 each year and 11 days that get to 80 degrees. The last time Fairbanks was 70 was on Sept. 13th. Barrow, Alaska climbed to 32 on May 17th ending a stretch of 220 consecutive days with the temperature below freezing. Barrow still has 9″ of snow on the ground and Kotzebue has 19″ remaining. Barrow had at least a trace of snowfall on 14 of the first 20 days of May. Here’s video of a landslide in Switzerland.