Severe Risk for Monday

June 17th, 2012 at 5:07 pm by under Bill's Blog, News, Weather

1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook   Latest NAM model data takes G.R. to a high of 89 this PM, 93 tomorrow.  Send us your pictures/video at ReportIt.  torms moving thru now.  Body found at the beach in Muskegon.  Storm pictures here.   Severe T-Storm Warning continues for Gratiot Co.  Minor wind damage in Caledonia.  Wire down on Riverbend SW near Butterworth.  Garage fire on Greenbrier SE – started by lightning.  Wire down near Lamberton Lake NE.  T-storms from N. Kalamazoo to Saginaw back to Ottawa Co. and up to TVC area.  Tree or large branch on car with person possibly trapped inside at Cascade and Cherry Dr. SE., with one minor hand injury reported  Tree down by Alden Nash and Vergennes.  Three-foot diameter tree down on Ware rd. between Montcalm rd. and Conklin rd. in Ionia County.  House fire on Cummings SW by O’Brien.  Gust to 55 mph – rooftop at Calvin College.  Frequent lightning and heavy rain.  Skycam in Muskegon.  Gust to 60 at GVSU roof downtown, but only 29 at WOOD-TV.  Gust to 37 mph W. side of G.R. on Collindale, wire down nearby.  Heavy rain downtown.  39 mph on the Muskegon beach, 40 at the airport and 45 mph on Henry St. and 45 mph at Twin Lake with 2″ rain.  Est. gust to 35 mph at my house in Alpine Twp.   Marble-sized hail just east of Coopersville and also at Richmond Park, NW side of G.R., and at Leonard and Alpine. Small hail in Caledonia and just south of Ada.  Large branch down on Pheasant NW.  Wire down in G.R. Township.  Tree (or large branch) down on Pheasant St, NW Gr. Rapids.    Intense cloud-ground lightning with a couple very close strikes here in Alpine Twp. and moderate to heavy rain.  Less than one hour: 1.40″ rain downtown GR @GVSU, 1.18 in Heritage Hill @WOOD, 1.05″ in East Grand Rapids near Lakeside Elem.  Much of Wisconsin and Lower Michigan are in the Slight Risk Area for severe storms on Monday from the Storm Prediction Center.  It looks like north of a line from Muskegon-Saginaw.   They say:  “A LINEAR MESOSCALE COMPLEX APPEARS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS ERN WI AND LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING EWD INTO LOWER MI THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS…MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AS A 75 TO 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL JET AXIS FROM NRN IA AND SRN MN EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS WI INTO NRN MI.”  5:45 AM update – A large area of showers and t-storms continues to move across Wisconsin, with some showers and storms over Lake Michigan.  Very little severe weather has been reported in Wisconsin with these storms.  Check out Grand Rapids NWS radar, Milwaukee radar and Minneapolis radar (cool pic. here and here).  There was also flooding.  Here’s Minnesota Storm Reports…  Gust to 76 mph at Appleton, MN and 77 mph at Cosmos, MN…72 mph at Lester Prairie, MN.   The main threat today in the Risk Area will be wind.  What you can do now, ahead of any storms is pick up the yard/outside to make sure nothing (like your garbage bin) will be dancing down the street if you get some wind, don’t park under trees, keep your garage door closed (esp. if it faces west) and keep coming back to the blog for the latest (click the links).  NAM Model gives G.R. 0.03″ of rain from mid morning to midday.  The GFS has .07″ and the European 0.03″.  The models give us another round of showers/t-storms later Weds. night/Thurs morning with the next cool front and then another round of storms Saturday PM/Night.  The European gives G.R. a 2 PM temperature of 92 Tues. and Weds.  Usually, the high temperature is about 4 degres higher than the 2 PM temperature, so we have a couple of back-to-back scorchers for Tues./Weds.  I’ll update when I can and we’ll have some great comments from people who are knowledgeable, even  if I’m doing TV and can’t update.   Click here for the current SPC outlooks and discussion.   Here’s current SPC severe t-storm and tornado watches, meso-discussions, and storm reports. You can check national lightning, Michigan lightning and the latest visible satellite loop (daytime), infrared satellite (nighttime) and regional radar.

I have 2 cats.  At the first grumble of thunder, cat 1 runs to the basement and hides under the sofa.  Cat 2 is asleep on the porch next to me amid fairly intense cloud-ground lightning and VERY loud thunder.

907 Responses to “Severe Risk for Monday”

  1. Dan says:

    This round of storms appears to be done! We did receive some much needed rain!
    What do you estimate those cloud tops to be, 40,000 feet? They had to be getting close to issuing a Severe Thunderstorm Warning.

  2. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

    Storms are strengthening as they get away from the lake. Bunch of warnings now and heading my way.

    1. jerry says:

      Yeah severe thunderstorm warning are being issued left and right now to our east!!!! Figures…

      1. fixxxer says:

        this always happenes

  3. Sherwood484 says:

    Starting to hear the thunder in the distance, I cant wait we need the rain so bad, bring on the rain, its already warm and muggy outside here.

  4. Mr. Negative says:

    Looks like an organized storm front heading toward Lansing/Jackson…heads-up!

  5. fixxxer says:

    so is this all of the storms today or what bill?

    1. jerry says:

      NOPE we will get more a little later today say around the 900pm hour…Im think

      1. fixxxer says:

        is that your “educated’ guess? ;)

  6. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    I am so NOT HAPPY right now!! :-(

    1.) stuck at a dealership service garage waiting on dip$hits to let me know what is wrong with my husbands car that THEY screwed up!! (DO NOT GO TO VANDERHYDE FORD SERVICE STATION IN CEDAR! Now I understand why the reviews say so after the fact)

    2.) Sat in the waiting lounge watching this storm out of the window coming in without my camera, without a loaner car to get me home to be with my boys, finally had them bring me home, to only see lighting shots I could be getting and getting madder yet, ect.

    3.) Have to go back now and get my husbands car and go else where for a 2cd opinion of what they found that they said that didn’t make sense with what I was experiencing. This place my husband took in to just get an oil change and check his rear suspension to having them drill through his heat shield and puncture his fuel tank and now the fuel tank isn’t vented properly, the heat shield is a twist messed up look because did a crap job putting it on and now they are saying he needs a front new suspension when all the noise and crap was in the rear! WTF!!

    If I don’t miss the good storms because they are away from my city, I miss them being stuck in a building with small windows and by time I get out the best of it has passed. I hope I get another shot at enjoying one from my house or the car at Fisk Knob.

    1. jerry says:

      WOW So sorry to hear this………Sue those JERKS!!!!!!!! They sound like they got there certificates from a cracker jack box……SO SO SO sorry to hear that….Hope it gets better for you

  7. Nathan says:

    I’m using the radarscope app… And it is showing hail in some parts of the line

    1. Nathan says:

      Hail at the southern part of the line, east of Allegon county

  8. JP (just north of Kzoo) says:

    How does this happen? A lot of thunder; a line of red, yellow, and green right on top of you according to the radar; and not a drop of rain. We need it so bad!!! I’m assuming it was raining up in the clouds, but not making it to the ground.

    1. fixxxer says:

      because it wasn’t far enough south for you guys to get anything.

      1. JP (just north of Kzoo) says:

        The line showed that it was right on top of us. We are actually in the Alamo area.

        1. JP (just north of Kzoo) says:

          Actually, The Weather Channel radar showed it right on top of us. If I slow Channel 8′s site down it was just about 1 to 2 miles north. Darn!!! My yard needs a drink. After reading the NOAA site, it doesn’t look like we have much of a chance later today either. Does anyone disagree?

      2. SS (Pwell Area) says:

        Pretty dark right now, windy as well…No rain as of this moment… Had some heavy rain move through earlier!!

  9. fixxxer says:

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/michigan/weather-radar?play=true

    i think lansing/detroit is going to get nailed.

    1. jerry says:

      OH YEAH THEY ARE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I BET A WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THEM…..OWOSSO WHERE I LIVED FOR A BIT TO LOOKS LIKE IT WILL GET HIT TOO

  10. Nathan says:

    What’s an echo top?

    1. jerry says:

      HUH???? Echo top????? Ive nevere heard of it…

    2. jerry says:

      Where did you see that Nathan????

    3. Nathan says:

      Well, significant echo tops at the southern end of the storm too. Not too much at the north end…

      1. Nathan says:

        It’s on radarscope app, best radar app

        1. jerry says:

          ok…….thanks :) :)

    4. Todd A (from Holland but in GR) says:

      It’s a measurement of how high the cloud tops are in a specific storm cell. Usually in 1,000 foot increments. Click the link for additional information.

      http://theweatherprediction.com/habyhints2/382/

  11. fixxxer says:

    wow this is a fast moving system.

  12. jerry says:

    Earlier INDY said the sun was coming out…….Ummmmmmmmmmm…WHere????? I live in the same city and I see no sun yet???????? The sky is brighter but no sun………INDY WHAT IS UP WITH YOU???

    1. fixxxer says:

      the sun should be out in a few hours.

  13. Nathan says:

    The southern end is really building up! We could us a warning for lansing.

  14. Jeff (Richland) says:

    Missed again. Hasn’t rained here since June 1st. Small shower yesterday AM but just enough to wet the ground. This sucks!!!

  15. jerry says:

    Nathan…………Where do I go to download the app for radarscope????? I went to website and I couldnt find where to download it to my computer?????

    1. jerry says:

      Can you send me a link?? Please??? and thanks

    2. Red in Allegan Co. says:

      Hey Jerry, I have the radarscope app and I believe it is just for phones and tablets. Not sure you can get it for a computer.

      1. jerry says:

        oh okay darn it!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Watching my language

  16. fixxxer says:

    only 64 out currently, warm front to the south, i bet we only hit the low 80′s today.

    1. jerry says:

      Thats because we got rain….I think it is going to get extremly HUMID!!!!!!!!

      1. fixxxer says:

        low 80′s is better than the 60′s but i already knew this would happen. also that line is weakening as it moves east.

  17. jerry says:

    Look above…Bill says Meso discussion for SE MI……I said I bet they will issue a watch for se mi……..

    1. fixxxer says:

      maybe but it’s weakening, ill keep an eye on it as my older kids & dad live in detroit.

  18. jerry says:

    PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…20 PERCENT

    SUMMARY…LONG-LIVED MCS SHOULD POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND AS
    DOWNSTREAM SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES…BUT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
    LARGELY SUGGEST ACTIVITY HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND MAY REMAIN ONLY
    LOCALLY/MARGINALLY SEVERE.

    DISCUSSION…STRONG MEASURED WIND GUSTS WITH SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE
    REPORTS HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST HOUR ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
    SHORT-LINE SEGMENT /NOW FROM SAGINAW TO BARRY COUNTIES/.
    HOWEVER…CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING WITH THIS MCS AND
    LITTLE INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER FLOW WAS NOTED IN THE GRR VWP DATA
    AFTER PASSAGE OF THE LINE. WHILE FARTHER DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY IS
    LIMITED PER MODIFIED 12Z DTX RAOB… CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO BE
    RENEWED ALONG THE SWRN FLANK OF THE SEGMENT AS IT INTERCEPTS THE
    FRINGE OF MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. THIS SUGGESTS OVERALL
    ORIENTATION MAY BECOME MORE W/E WITH TIME AND MITIGATE A MORE ROBUST
    INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

    ..GRAMS/HART.. 06/18/2012

  19. jerry says:

    OK hey I am getting off from the blog for awhile…to spend time with wife….will be back on later today or tonight…….HAVE A GREAT DAY EVERYONE……HOPE ALL OF YOU WHO GOT HIT ENJOYED IT????!!!!!!!!!????? STAY COOL AND DRY

  20. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    That is a good looking line beg it will easily produce 70-80mph wind gust for S.E Michigan

    http://mapcenter.hamweather.com/radar/ptype/latest/cr02c04.html?b=topo&s=640×480

  21. fixxxer says:

    im out too, were done for now. hopefully we get something worthwhile here later today but im not holding my breath.

  22. Here’s a shot I obtained of the Shelf Cloud in Greenville, MI this morning: http://on.fb.me/MZVtV0

  23. fixxxer says:

    does anyone have a current surface map? id like to see where this warm front is currently because im thinking it may stay south of gr today.

  24. Mr. Negative says:

    Glad for the rain, received an even inch this morning. Only 64 degrees outside?…guess the “hot stuff” left town.

    1. fixxxer says:

      yeah theres no way were gonna get anywhere near 90 today.

  25. Nathan says:

    Storm is out of here and weakening… More tonight! Good storm for us though

    1. fixxxer says:

      no one said we were getting anything else today.

      1. Nathan says:

        I did :)

        1. fixxxer says:

          i wouldn’t count on it and the rest of this week looks dry.

        2. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

          Not north and west of GR fixxxer, we could have more storms again today and Wednesday night:)

        3. fixxxer says:

          im just telling you i wouldn’t count on it. other than the much needed rain we had im disappointed in what that so called bow was when it got here. the thing was a monster out west last night.

  26. Soccer6713 says:

    That was a great one hour soaking with thunder and a light show to top it all off! Read my book while I took the sights & sounds of it all in.

  27. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    Nws grr says counties north of GR will get more tonight

    1. fixxxer says:

      of course it will be north.

  28. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Got a good soaking rain from this AM storm (1.05″) so that should green up the un watered grass areas real well and more likely then not many of us will soon have to cut the grass again. Its now up to 71° here good bet that today’s high temp will be kept down from the forecasted high, my thinking now is low to mid 82′s
    SlimJim

    1. fixxxer says:

      same here low 80′s at best today.

      1. Dan says:

        Nope no where near 90 today, fixxxer. Low 80s at best, right?
        We hit 90 today. Why do you call for the high temp at 11:25 am in the day? Aren’t you aware of the power of the sun’s angle at this time of year and influence of the warm front?

  29. bnoppe(Albion) says:

    FINALLY rain!!!

  30. DF (SE Mich) says:

    Good, looks like we won’t miss out in A2! Need rain!

    1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

      What is A2? I am so hoping for more storms I need them to boost my spirits.

      1. A2= Ann Arbor.

        Had to google that one up myself. :P

        1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

          How did you google it? I wonder what Cedar Springs is.

        2. DF (SE Mich) says:

          CeSpr

      2. fixxxer says:

        wyoming comes up “ghetto” ;)

  31. mike[kalamazoo county] says:

    nothing here but the dry area in southern Mi. is getting smaller hopefully the next go around we can get something in kalamazoo county

  32. fixxxer says:

    hard to believe there’s still frost/freeze warnings out west with a mix of precip going into late june.

  33. Dan (Rockford) says:

    We got 1.4 inches of rain this morning on the west side of Rockford.

  34. Sherwood484 says:

    well so much for any rain, here in Branch county, we sure could use some. Sunny and Hot here now.

  35. Mike (Mattawan) says:

    Sunny and extremely dry right now in mattawan, getting a temp reading of 92. no wait… jumped to 93…..

  36. Jessie (Caledonia) says:

    So we’re not getting anything down here today? Figures.

  37. Dan says:

    Yes, maybe during the “cool down” at the end of this week, we get a rain/snow mix? Imagine that, 90s to upper 90s this week, then, snow!

  38. KF (SE Of Lowell) --currently in Utah says:

    Talked to my neighbor earlier today and she said there were several large trees down in western Ionia County/eastern Kent County. These trees were about a mile from our house. Sounds like we missed a good storm. Nothing out in Utah but sunshine and 100 degree heat.

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