How HOT will it get??!!

June 27th, 2012 at 11:59 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

  New morning run numbers from the NAM model are in and they are HOT!  Here’s the city, the NAM forecast high temperature for Thurs., Fri, and Saturday from the Caribou Tool, with the meager rainfall forecast for each day in ( ):  Grand Rapids:  96.1, 87.8, 96.1 (.04″),  Kalamazoo:  102.2, 90.1 (.13″), 96.4 (.02″),  Jackson:  106.2 (trace), 92.8 (.03), 98.6 (.06″),  Lansing:  101.1, 89.6, 95.9, (trace),  Muskegon: 84.7, 84.9, 84.4 (trace), Holland:  93.2 (trace), 84.0, 93.2 (.06″),  S. Haven:  96.6, 86.7 (.09″ Fri. Night), 93.7, (.15″),  Ludington:  89.1 (.02″), 85.8, 88.5 (.02″),  Mt. Pleasant:  100.2 (.20″), 89.6, 96.6 (.06″), Pontiac 104.4 (.17″), 90.1, 96.6 (.07″).   NOW, the high and low for the next 2 days off the NAM MOS data:  Grand Rapids 94/90, Kalamazoo 97/89, Holland Airport 94/87, Battle Creek 98/90, Lansing 96/90, Coldwater 99/92, Sturgis 99/90, Ludington 83/85, Marshall 100/92, Battle Creek 98/90, Cadillac 87/87, Detroit 100/94, Jackson 98/92, Ypsilanti 104/95, Muskegon 88/88, Big Rapids 91/90.    The GFS MOS numbers for Thu./Fri:  Grand Rapids 94/90, Kalamazoo 90/93, Big Rapids 87/88, Muskegon 86/88, Jackson 87/90.  Winds are expected to be coming from the west off Lake Michigan, so the closer you are to the water the (relatively) cooler you will be.  There’s a Red Flag Warning for an increasing threat of grass and wildfires.  Here’s fire safety tips.  Be VERY careful with fireworks over the next couple weeks, with fires and discarding cigarette butts.  THURSDAY will be a CLEAN AIR ACTION DAY – free bus rides on the RAPID in G.R. and the MAX in the Holland/Zeeland area.    There’s a Heat Advisory for the Michigan counties that border Indiana, extending down into Indiana and Illinois.  Here’s current Michigan temperatures, a surface weather map, and current weather for the Muskegon beach, Grand Haven channel, Holland St. Park, South Haven Beach, Lake Michigan water temperatures and rip current forecast, the Grand Rapids NWS discussionNorthern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan border counties), SE Michigan NWS discussion, Northern Michigan NWS discussion, local W. Michigan radar, regional radar, Lake Michigan beach webcams, tips to beat the summer heatRecord high temperatures are possible.  Here’s the Michigan Drought Monitor and a dry weather update for the Michiana area.     Here’s where you can check on the large wildfires going on out West.  Here’s a National Weather Map and the Thunderstorm Outlooks for the next 3 days from the Storm Prediction Center (Slight Risk area to Lake Michigan Thursday PM).  While warm air aloft will act to limit thunderstorm activity – any storms that do develop could contain strong winds and hail.   FINAL NOTE:  There is a higher correlation from June weather to July weather than most other months.  What you get in June often continues into July.  So expect warmer than average temperatures in July in Michigan, much of the Great Lakes west into the Rockies, with cool conditions in the Pacific NW and Northeast and immediate West Coast.  Keep coming back to the blog for updates and to check the links.  Stay cool and make sure your relatives, friends and neighbors can cope with the heat.  I may do the weather tonight from East G.R., and maybe I’ll have time for a quick kayak run around Reeds Lake after the 6 PM news before I head back to get ready for the 10 PM news on WXSP.

73 Responses to “How HOT will it get??!!”

  1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    It’s supposed to be hotter in Ludington than Muskegon WOW that’s a change!

  2. fixxxer says:

    id say around 90 for gr.

      1. Laker says:

        1 dollar.

        1. Scott (west olive) says:

          I just wanna spin the wheel!

  3. Brandon says:

    I think it will get around 95-98 for Battle Creek.

  4. marianne says:

    yay Ill be on a train to chitown on friday…looks like grandson and I will be staying inside to play..:) keep cool, everyone…

  5. Me :-) says:

    I have to be outside tomorrow. I will fill a cooler with frozen bottles of water and let them melt during the day. The best water you will ever taste. Stay cool everyone! :-)

  6. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

    104 for Pontiac?! Wow, that’s basically where I am. That would be something.

  7. DanielG says:

    Should be NO FUN at work today, tomorrow and Friday. Very few places to hide out in a train yard from the sun. The railcars soak up the heat so even in their shade its still HOT. But hey, low humidity and a breeze helps along with lots of WATER from the cooler. This always makes me remember those below zero days with lots of snow and you we wish for weather like this…yeah right!

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      I bet a +10° day with a 25 to 30 MPH wind is just great there right???? I also work out side in the summer and believe it or not its harder for me to keep warm in the winter with a wind then in the summer with the sun. So I guess to each their own.
      SlimJim

  8. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    We will have to see just how good the models are compared to the actual air temps. We will know if a few days.
    87° here now with full sun. I generally run just a little warmer then the airport on warm days the same on cloudy, rain days at night on cloudy nights just about the same and on clear nights I am sometimes a little cooler (then the airport) but then I do not live at the air port
    SlimJim

  9. fixxxer says:

    ill be cranking on the a/c later today since my wife & kids are now sick as dogs and im sure the heat won’t help things.

  10. Lynne VandeBunte says:

    Bill,

    Can you give us figures sometime for drought. As in, how unusual this is…compared with??? Since I moved back in in 1995 (to Kalamazoo) has NEVER been this dry. Has been this hot. Thanks.

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      Sure…it’s been much hotter than this. We were 97 in Grand Rapids today and 98 in Kalamazoo. Compare that to 108 in Grand Rapids and 109 in Kalamazoo on July 13, 1936. Grand Rapids hit 100 or better 12 times in the 1930s…we’ve only done it once since 1964. My records for Kalamazoo show 100 on 6/21/88 and then highs of 101, 103 and 100 on July 5th, 6th and 7th in 1988. Here’s the Drought Monitor: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ Kalamazoo is only at category 1 (Abnormally Dry). On July 14, 1995, temperatures in the upper 90s in Kalamazoo combined with high humidity to produce heat index readings near 120 degrees.

  11. Jack Hoffman says:

    Michigan has had above normal temperatures for over three years in a row now.This must be climate change.

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      We had above normal temperatures for a decade in the 1930s. There is no such thing as climate stasis. We’ve had both palm trees and glaciers here in W. Michigan and it had nothing to do with someone use an incandescent light bulb.

  12. INDY says:

    96 only tomorrow Bill it’s 93* out already today! well into the 100′s tomorrow drink lots of sprites!!! INDYY….

    1. fixxxer says:

      try 86 currently.

      1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

        Only 73 here in TwiLake 69 in Muskegon and 66 in montage very cool up here how can it already be 93 where you are INDY???

        1. fixxxer says:

          at indy’s house it’s always 93 with an f5 tornado ripping through.

        2. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

          92° here and sunny.
          SlmJim

        3. Scott (west olive) says:

          lmao!

  13. millekat says:

    Michigan isn’t supposed to get this hot! Glad GR isn’t supposed to hit the century mark! (It’s a mental thing…it’s still gonna be HOT out there!)

    1. fixxxer says:

      since it’s going to be more a dry heat it shouldn’t be as bad.

      1. Laker says:

        Dewpoints will be higher with the weak front passing through. Dewpoints will be in the mid-upper 60′s. It won’t exactly be a dry heat. Minnesota (where the front is) has dewpoints in the 70′s right now. NWS has GR’s dewpoint at 65 tomorrow at 2pm – 67 at 11:00pm.

  14. Nathan says:

    Will this be the warmest Grand Rapids reaches in the 21st century?

    1. big Daddy BC says:

      There’s quite a bit of 21st century to go, Nathan. Our average temps have increased by 1.6 degrees since the ’50s. I think it’s safe to say that we’ll see more than a couple more days like these in the next 88 years.

      1. Bill Steffen says:

        The hottest temperature of the last century in Grand Rapids was 108 on July 13, 1936. You can read more about the great heat wave of 1936 here: http://blogs.woodtv.com/2011/07/12/the-heat-wave-of-1936/ Twenty-Four of the 50 states had all-time records that date from the 1930s: http://media2.newsnet5.com//photo/2012/06/08/StateRecordsAllTime_20120608221531_320_240.JPG It hasn’t been anywhere near that warm since. We made 100 degrees twelve times in the 1930s…and now only once since 1964.

      2. big Daddy BC says:

        What I’m talking about is total energy in the system. Anomalous highs, although interesting, are not a good measure of that. Highs are masked by things like land-use changes and humidity. What’s important here isn’t one or two extremely hot days, but the trend of hotter than normal seasons that have set up over the last decade.

        http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/09/23/327298/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/Temps1.gif

      3. Bill Steffen says:

        Ha! I link to Think Progress! Talk about the pot calling the kettle black! Think Progress was headed up by Faiz Shakir who is most noted for trying to get a mosque built at Ground Zero. It’s funded by George Soros. Anyway, to your comment that there have been hotter seasons in the last decade:

        1) Not this year: http://policlimate.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_t2m_ytd_anom.png Global temperature slightly below normal globally.

        2) http://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/trend-24.png HadCrut data…no warming last decade globally

        3) Dr. Judith Curry of the BEST group at Berkeley said, the project’s research data show there has been no increase in world temperatures since the end of the Nineties – a fact confirmed by a new analysis that The Mail on Sunday has obtained.

        ‘There is no scientific basis for saying that warming hasn’t stopped,’ she said. ‘To say that there is detracts from the credibility of the data, which is very unfortunate.’

        Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2055191/Scientists-said-climate-change-sceptics-proved-wrong-accused-hiding-truth-colleague.html#ixzz1z9d4POtq

        1. big Daddy BC says:

          Policlimate uses the adjusted average (+1/2 a degree) and was designed by a Rush Limbaugh regular, Maue. A real average puts us ABOVE normal.
          This May was the second hottest in recorded history. How do you think June’s going to shape up. As I recall, you put an end to 90 degree days about June 18 and forecasted for an average to slightly-above summer. LOL A huge drought’s set up across the west and midwest. This after one of the mildest winters EVER!
          Do you think your viewers don’t go outside?

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          Rush Limbaugh regular? LOL Rush mentioned him once. Dr. Maue’s data is available to you from NASA and you can make the same map if you like. It’s not adjusted. No trying to make it look warmer than it is. The point is…while the eastern U.S. has been warm (except for the NE and Florida), most of the world has been average to cool. The IR data shows the globe taken as a whole has had slightly cooler than (1981-2010) average.

          Hey, did you see this poll: http://reason.org/blog/show/wisconsin-recall-poll-reason-rupe “74 percent favor requiring government employees to pay more for their own health care and retirement benefits…74 percent oppose raising taxes to help fund government worker benefits.”

        3. big Daddy BC says:

          Maue’s graphic is biased. That’s the point, Bill. When you’re comparing to ‘average,’ it’s important to use the actual average or inform the public why you’re using an adjusted average.
          I’m not sure what your poll on government employees has to do with anything, but so? Personally, I think you make way too much. You get more than a month of vacations and make triple figures. That’s way more than you’re worth. Your check could pay for three or four teachers or cops, people that really do make a positive difference in this world.

          BTW, I was talking to my priest the other day. He’d mentioned climate change and asked me to visit this website:
          http://catholicclimatecovenant.org/catholic-teachings/vatican-messages/
          You’ve mentioned in the past that you’re catholic. Are you aware of the Church’s position on climate change? A working group of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences, one of the oldest scientific institutes in the world, issued a sobering report a year ago on the impacts for humankind as a result of the global retreat of mountain glaciers as a result of human activity leading to climate change. In their declaration, the working group calls, “on all people and nations to recognize the serious and potentially irreversible impacts of global warming caused by the anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and other pollutants, and by changes in forests, wetlands, grasslands, and other land uses.”

        4. Bill Steffen says:

          Maue’s graph isn’t biased. It’s the plotted raw NASA data. No scientist questions it that I know of…only a few non-scientist political zealots. This graph isn’t adjusted. It’s the Mann-made hockey schtick nonsense that’s adjusted…for financial gain. You have no idea how much money I get. And as for vacations…I’m working two Saturdays in June and the 4th of July. If you object to my vacation time, what do you think of educators that get most of the summer off?

          You mentioned before that you were Jewish…now you’ve got a priest? Really? Did you confess that you lied when you called Romney a polygamist? Be careful…remember how “Fauxcohontas” got in trouble with that in Massachusetts.

          Speaking of the Academy of Science…this guy was PRESIDENT of the Academy of Sciences! He didn’t believe climate alarmism: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/06/us/06seitz.html

        5. big Daddy BC says:

          I never said I was Jewish. I said I have family members that are.

          Still waiting to hear your opinion on the church’s stance. Do you agree with the Pontiff or don’t you? He is the voice of God and he thinks it’s our MORAL duty to stop climate change.

          “I hope that all members of the international community can agree on a responsible, credible and supportive response to this worrisome and complex phenomenon, keeping in mind the needs of the poorest populations and of future generations.”
          - Pope Benedict XVI

        6. Bill Steffen says:

          We’ve stopped “global warming”. Global temperatures have been steady for over a decade: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.C.gif

    2. fixxxer says:

      What an odd question.

      1. Nathan says:

        No, I mean so far!

        1. Scott (west olive) says:

          Big Daddy only looks back 10 years.

        2. big Daddy BC says:

          I don’t understand what that means, Scott.

        3. Bill Steffen says:

          And you know, looking back at the last 10 years…you sure would question climate alarmism: http://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/trend-24.png

          Dr. Judith Curry said, the project’s research data show there has been no increase in world temperatures since the end of the Nineties – a fact confirmed by a new analysis that The Mail on Sunday has obtained.

          ‘There is no scientific basis for saying that warming hasn’t stopped,’ she said. ‘To say that there is detracts from the credibility of the data, which is very unfortunate.’

          Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2055191/Scientists-said-climate-change-sceptics-proved-wrong-accused-hiding-truth-colleague.html#ixzz1zLWzNKKX

        4. big Daddy BC says:

          …More mindless cut-and-pastes from the rhetoric master. Go outside and tell me the climate isn’t changing, you fool.

        5. Bill Steffen says:

          It isn’t changing – global temperatures have been steady for over a decade: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.C.gif

  15. Hmm, a couple of fire trucks just drove by east of Greenville. On the order of storms, I really don’t like our chances, but we shall see tomorrow night.

  16. mike[kalamazoo county] says:

    I think our precip. chances are overdone until something lifts some gulf moisture up here. I see noaa has southern michigan in persistence drought until the end of Sept. I can’t imagine no rain until then but I suppose we could get a couple inches or more per month in aug. and sept. and still have the drought classification.

  17. Dan says:

    My guess is that we in the GR area, will get very close to the 100 degree mark. I am going to say 98 degrees! I was sure hoping for 101 or 102, tomorrow, just to say that we hit that temp.

  18. michael g (SE GR) says:

    I’ll say 95* at the airport tomorrow, and with everyone struggling to even hit 90* today, I’m doubting whether anyone in Michigan will officially hit 100* tomorrow.

    I was working near Reed’s Lake today and I saw an older (no offense Bill) couple out in kayaks, and I wondered if it was Bill and Gayle. Sounds like not.

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      89* for the high here today, down one to 88* now.

  19. Here you go guys and gals, a lightning video cut from when we chased in Texas on 5/28/12. Just so you guys can have a storm fix :) http://on.fb.me/LC5mvs After all, it is lightning safety week.

  20. fixxxer says:

    Nice out today!

  21. Brian(Grandville) says:

    That’s some dry heat out there today. Dew points in the 40′s. If they make it into the 60′s the next few days with temps in the 90′s it’s gonna feel awful.

  22. Scott (west olive) says:

    think I’ll go find a cow field and see if I smell hamburgs cooking tomorrow. :)

  23. Barb says:

    It’s very comfortable here in Cheboygan with NE wind coming off the lake.

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      Nice!

  24. michael g (SE GR) says:

    MMmmmmm….Mt. Washington…..

    http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KMWN.html

  25. Mark (Okemos) says:

    At least there will be a breeze tomorrow.

  26. jerry says:

    Will try to cook eggs on my sidewalk today!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  27. John says:

    Where are all the global warming naysayers?

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      Here’s a few you can check out: http://www.petitionproject.org/ Try this guy: http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=2f4cc62e-5b0d-4b59-8705-fc28f14da388 and http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/04/23/11144098-gaia-scientist-james-lovelock-i-was-alarmist-about-climate-change?lite Remember one heat wave is weather and not climate. Also, the globe in total is actually slightly cooler than average for the year: http://policlimate.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_t2m_ytd_anom.png It’s been cool in the Pacific NW, Northeast and in Florida (with Debby). Parts of Australia had their coldest May in 60 years and it could be the coolest/wettest June in history in Great Britain. Here’s a past President of the American Assn. of State Climatologists: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patrick_Michaels The State Climatologist of Texas said: “I still disagree with Dr. Hansen, both on his interpretation and some of his analysis.” This guy was the State Climatologist of Oregon for 19 years: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BQEiiDTrXIM and the state climatologist of Delaware: http://www.iceagenow.com/Delaware_State_Climatologist_Skeptical_on_Global_Warming.htm

      1. John says:

        Just wanted to poke fun at the GR conservatives. :-)

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          There are liberals that are skeptical of catastrophic climate change from C02. It diverts a lot of money from where it could be put to better use. Here’s an interesting read: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/06/22/a-response-to-dr-paul-bains-use-of-denier-in-scientific-literature/

        2. big Daddy BC says:

          Pope Benedict XVI sent a compelling message to those gathering at the 2009 Summit on Climate Change when he conveyed his “support to leaders of governments and international agencies who soon will meet at the United Nations to discuss the urgent issue of climate change…. How important it is then, that the international community and individual governments send the right signals to their citizens and succeed in countering harmful ways of treating the environment!…The protection of the environment, and the safeguarding of resources and of the climate, oblige all leaders to act jointly, respecting the law and promoting solidarity with the weakest regions of the world” (Caritas in Veritate, no. 50).

          Sounds like Pope Benedict disagrees.
          http://catholicclimatecovenant.org/catholic-teachings/vatican-messages/

        3. Bill Steffen says:

          Catholic Social Services does a much better job with the funds they have than this: http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2011-09-18/news/ct-met-kass-0918-20110918_1_solyndra-loan-guarantee-obama-fundraisers-obama-white-house Money that is diverted to rich croneys doesn’t help the common man, doesn’t help anyone in “the hood”. If you think FEMA is the best use of your money, keep throwing your money to the Feds…but if you think that Catholic Social Services, the Red Cross and the Salvation Army do a better job with their funds, support them and don’t let the BigDaddys of the world throw your hard-earned money away on boondoggle climate alarmism failures. Here’s another: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/29/business/energy-environment/abound-solar-says-it-will-file-for-bankruptcy.html

        4. big Daddy BC says:

          No comment on the Pontiff’s directive? You certainly don’t outwardly support his position. Who’s work are you doing?

        5. Bill Steffen says:

          I work for the truth and the integrity of science, like Dr. Harold Lewis: “The global warming scam, with the (literally) trillions of dollars driving it, that has corrupted so many scientists, and has carried APS before it like a rogue wave. It is the greatest and most successful pseudoscientific fraud I have seen in my long life as a physicist. Anyone who has the faintest doubt that this is so should force himself to read the ClimateGate documents, which lay it bare. (Montford’s book organizes the facts very well.) I don’t believe that any real physicist, nay scientist, can read that stuff without revulsion. I would almost make that revulsion a definition of the word scientist.” – Professor Harold Lewis, Univ. of California

    2. big Daddy BC says:

      They’re still here. …Just hiding. LOL

      1. Paul says:

        C’mon Jedthro (bdbc), didn’t they teach you to read with your sixth grade education? By the way, where are all of those “millions” of Michigan citizens hiding that you claimed wanted Governor Snyder recalled???

        http://www.freep.com/article/20120608/NEWS15/206080371/Effort-to-recall-Gov-Rick-Snyder-abandoned-in-wake-of-Wisconsin-vote

        Twice, in less than a year??? Now there’s a desire for change, lol.

        1. big Daddy BC says:

          “Nearly 700,000 Michigan voters signed the petition in support of protecting the fundamental right to collective bargaining.”

          Here they are! LOL

          http://www.freep.com/article/20120621/NEWS06/120621044/Michigan-collective-bargaining-rights-petition-drive

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          This is from a Rupe poll in Wisconsin, a state that hasn’t voted Republican for President since 1984: “71 percent favor “increasing the amount that government employees contribute to their own health care from 6 percent to 12 percent of the cost of their health care…72 percent of Wisconsinites favor “increasing the amount that government employees contribute to their own pensions from less than 1 percent to 6 percent of their annual salaries,”

        3. big Daddy BC says:

          12%? You do realize that most in the public sector are now required by law to pay 20% of their healthcare? In Michigan public sector employees pay 7% to their pension fund! Not only that, but the legislature is threatening to disallow any new members from participating in a pension program.

          You have absolutely no idea what you’re even posting do you? Michigan’s legislature and Governor are the most right-wing radicle group that’s ever occupied Lansing. By the time they’re done, no one of quality will ever want to teach, police or put out fires here again.

        4. Paul says:

          Look at the “Benefits” section. This is a comparison of federal employees vs. private sector employees.

          http://www.cbo.gov/publication/42921

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