Severe Risk

June 28th, 2012 at 4:18 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

1730 UTC Day 1 Outlook We are in the General Thunderstorm Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center this afternoon and there is a “See Text” over Southern Lower Michigan.   They say:  “SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED OVER CO/WRN NEB/SD IS FCST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY IN PERIOD TO WI…THEN CROSS LOWER MI BETWEEN 2 PM and 8 PM.   SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS ARE POSSIBLE…PRIMARILY INVOF SFC COLD FRONT WHERE LIFT PROVIDED BY FRONT WILL HELP TO OVERCOME STG CAPPING AS IT IMPINGES UPON DIABATICALLY DESTABILIZING DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER. ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP  MORE PROBABLY NEAR LM AND LOWER MI IN THE AFTERNOON. TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH AFTERNOON AS REGIME SHIFTS EWD ACROSS LOWER MI.. POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND SVR HAIL WARRANTS 5% PROBABILITIES FOR THOSE SVR MODES.

8:25 PM update:  Thunderstorms pounding part of the Chicago area where there was surface convergence with the lake breeze that kicked in.  They haven’t been able to make it across Lake Michigan.  High temperatures today were 100 in Coldwater, Marshall and Flint, 102 in Hillsdale, 103 in Adrian, 105 in Ypsilanti and 106 in Fort Wayne, Muncie and Terre Haute IN.  Grand Rapids tied a record high of 97.  Lansing set a record with 98.  Kalamazoo also made 98.   Battle Creek made it to 99 this PM.  It was MUCH cooler at the lake, where beach air temperatures were in the low-mid 70s.   Check the surface map.  Lower dewpoint air will make it slightly more comfortable tomorrow.  Here’s current conditions, Lake Michigan water temperatures (inland lakes are mostly low 80s), a satellite loop (daytime).   We have a Heat Advisory in for all areas except the lakeshore, where it is cooler.  This is also a Clean Air Action Day, so free rides on the RAPID on G.R. and the MAX in Holland.   The European model gives us a 2 PM temperature of 98.8 next Tuesday, which would be a high of about 102 in G.R.

152 Responses to “Severe Risk”

    1. Jack says:

      Ha, ha…..Maybe they would share…If you ask them Nicely…

    2. Cort S. says:

      I’m guessing it’s probably derived from CAPE values (and maybe some other parameters?). If it’s weighted mostly by CAPE, I’m not surprised to see that graphic looking like that since CAPE across the area is very high, however the very strong cap is keeping convection from exploding.

  1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Even with the cloud cover its still 99° here now!
    SlimJim

    1. fixxxer says:

      i guess im immune from the heat because my kid and i just walked around the block and it’s not that bad out.

  2. ~Sherry~(Comstock Park) says:

    It is 84 degrees inside and 95 outside so I must be doing something right. I closed the windows this morning when it was cooler and trapped that cold air inside before it got too hot out. Still it is not bad outside. Definitely a dry heat.

    1. Brian says:

      I would have to say that a 73 Dewpoint is far from dry heat!

      1. fixxxer says:

        yeah but it really doesn’t feel it out brian.

  3. Scott (City of Rockford) says:

    At 3:50 temp is 97.2 with a dew point of 75.

  4. Bnoppe says:

    We’ve hit 99 here at Marshall Airport

  5. fixxxer says:

    so cort let me get this straight. we have the heat, the humidity & dew points in place for severe storms but were capped today… figures!

  6. INDY says:

    Fixxer your 90* is a little off today I should say!! WRONG!! 99* out at thee YARDofBRICKS!!! INDYY….

    1. fixxxer says:

      so?

      1. Jack says:

        So….You were Wrong Again… Or as Usual…

        1. fixxxer says:

          your such an “ass”et to this blog jack.

        2. Rumrunner says:

          Don’t worry Fix. Your record on right and wrong is far better than Indy’s. He shot his wad/lost his credibility over the winters…

        3. fixxxer says:

          indy’s just here to have fun.

  7. here in the ‘bowl’ we officially hit 100 degrees at 3:30 with a DP of 120. whew….

  8. This from our weather station down near Dundee/Monroe area

    Current Jasper Weather 3:58pm
    Temperature 100.6 ° High 100.6 Low 68.0
    Heat Index 114.5 ° High 117.0 At: 3:57p
    Humidity 43%
    Winds WNW-4.0 G-14.0 Peak 17.0
    Barometer 29.658 Falling Rapidly
    Dewpoint 74.0
    Daily Rain 0.00 Rain Rate 0.00 High 0.00
    Storm Rain 0.00
    Monthly Rain 0.85 Yearly Rain 12.12

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      I had a (highest temp here of 100.4)at 2:47 PM and am now down to 94.2°
      SlimJim

      1. fixxxer says:

        im not sure if we “officially” hit 100 today, i don’t think we did.

        1. Steelie says:

          Good Day,

          96* at 2:53 p.m.

          Steelie

  9. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    It now has “cooled” down here to 94° (front may have gone thru) just went out side and it hot in the sun and very warm in the shade (sorry fix it is hot out side, try running around you block) BTW fix we have to go over by Fixxers area to drop off some things at my sons house so we will know if its not that bad over there LOL
    SlimJim

    1. fixxxer says:

      http://www.intellicast.com/National/Surface/Current.aspx

      yup the front is just about through us now.

  10. Dan says:

    fixxxer: PLEASE APOLOGIZE for your rude and very distasteful comment that you made to Skot. Only, you called out a lot of other people. What is wrong with you? Do you think you are better? You should be ashamed of yourself!

    1. Jack says:

      + 1 ……Hey Fix….Who’s The Biggest ASSet on the Blog…..hint…Look in the Mirror…

    2. fixxxer says:

      but it’s ok for them to criticize and say rude things about me all the time?

      1. fixxxer says:

        it was a joke, get over it.

        1. Jack says:

          Jokes in your Mirror..Get over yourself…..

        2. Dan says:

          Joke or not, it was done in very poor taste! You should never put down others especially, people that can’t always fight for themselves. I work with many people who ride the short bus, fixxxer! They are some of the most excellent people in the world! I used to think you couldn’t help yourself. Now, I see what kind of person you are.

        3. Skot says:

          My children saw this and asked me what this meant. They are 8 and 9 year old boys. I was tearing up telling them that there is this mean man named “fissster” that ALWAYS picks on me when I comment. But its OK because I was raised to turn the other cheek and fart in his direction. Luh-who-zuh-her !!!

  11. Nathan says:

    Wow,it has warmed up a ton since 3:53 PM…. Probably because the clouds dissipated.

  12. Dan says:

    I think we officially hit 97 here today. We will have to see what the official temp reports are from Wood TV8, GR-Airport, etc, etc! The day time heating is not yet over! The way I see it, we still have a couple of hours of heating to go!

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      Temps are already dropping in most areas Dan. I think we’re getting some cooling from the lake.

  13. Jeff (SE Ionia County) says:

    Spot on Bill !!! Reached 97F here !

  14. I took a snapshot of my weather station display for prosperity and historical reference and posted it on my blog you can check it out by clicking on my name (a shameless plug for my website)

  15. michael g (SE GR) says:

    How’s that forecast you made for 90* today looking fix?

    I had 100* on the car thermometer from downtown to the Beltline on 196, here at the house the high for the day was 96*, and it’s down to 93* now.

    I was working out at the lakeshore earlier today and it was only in the mid to upper 70′s, felt GREAT with the nice southwest breeze.

  16. Soccer6713 says:

    I don’t think it’s really all that bad out either. Did all the usual things outside that I normally do on a summer day. No air in the house, but like Sherry I open windows in the evening and close when I get up. Currently 73 degrees inside. That is 3 degrees cooler than over at my sisters who is running her central air, lol.

  17. INDY says:

    Rumrunner I have a BIG wad 4 u little boy !!! 5pm….100* out at the YARDofDUMRUM!! INDYY..

  18. Brad says:

    There is some sick heat in the Plains right now. Records being smashed. Again. I called in in March!

  19. Cassie (Kentwood) says:

    Wearing my “Bills blog” shirt today…woo! Glad I am inside though in the AC. Never been so happy to be at work!

  20. Mark (Okemos) says:

    Thank goodness for the breeze.

  21. michael g (SE GR) says:

    Detroit Willow Run Airport, 105*, DP 71*, Heat Index 115*!

  22. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    Severe storm warning for Chicago!

  23. Cort S. says:

    PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
    337 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2012 /437 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2012/

    …CHICAGO AREA HITS 100F THIS AFTERNOON…

    AS OF 330 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON…NORTHERLY ISLAND IN DOWNTOWN
    CHICAGO…O`HARE AND MIDWAY AIRPORT HAVE ALL HIT THE 100F MARK.
    THE OFFICIAL CLIMATE STATION FOR CHICAGO IS O`HARE AIRPORT AND
    THEY REACHED 100 DEGREES AT 319 PM. THIS MARKS THE FIRST TIME
    O`HARE HAS REACHED 100F SINCE JULY 24TH 2005. ROCKFORD AIRPORT HAS
    ONLY REACHED 98F.

  24. Chicago just proved it. We need a a good lake breeze boundary to get anything worth while here it looks like. The lake breeze touched up a couple of “nuke” style cells down there that went from not much to nearly 60,000ft tall in less than an a half hour.

    1. Heat’s getting to me.. I meant to say: “less than a half an hour”

      1. Cassie (Kentwood) says:

        Too bad the storm is going to the southeast! :(

  25. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    New MD for everyone south of 94

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1297.html

  26. INDY says:

    Heat Wave 12 is on my house 123* thee YARDEofBRICKS 101* Thee pool 72* and a cold sprite 29* getting cooler stay out of cars check the pets INDY’S REST!!

  27. Wolverdog says:

    Really eerie outside. Something is a brewing! Hopefully it’s not a moon!

  28. 04 GTO (gaines 68th & Kzoo) says:

    hope everyone enjoyed the heat. my family and i are at our cottage 3/4 of a mile north of little point sable and about 200 yards off the lake… we maxed at about *83. currently it is *77.7… the lake was like glass hardly any waves and the water was comfortable.. went in to silver lake today and it was noticeably warmer.. keep it coming… oh and Bill my lawn asked me to ask you to PLEASE make it rain…

  29. Dan says:

    We certainly NEED the rain. Lets hope we get a couple of chances that materialize over the next few days!

  30. Soccer6713 says:

    Have any of the counties issued a burning ban yet?

    1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

      Muskegon

      1. Soccer6713 says:

        Thank you!

  31. bnoppe(Albion) says:

    that maybe the smallest watch ever

    1. Cort S. says:

      Maybe. I think it rivals this one from last year:
      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/2011/ww0445.html

  32. Skot says:

    86 on the car-mom-oter on the way home at 3 am. Dropped to 70 at 96 and Alpine west. Then 67 in Marne.

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