Severe RiskJune 28th, 2012 at 4:18 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
We are in the General Thunderstorm Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center this afternoon and there is a “See Text” over Southern Lower Michigan. They say: “SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED OVER CO/WRN NEB/SD IS FCST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY IN PERIOD TO WI…THEN CROSS LOWER MI BETWEEN 2 PM and 8 PM. SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS ARE POSSIBLE…PRIMARILY INVOF SFC COLD FRONT WHERE LIFT PROVIDED BY FRONT WILL HELP TO OVERCOME STG CAPPING AS IT IMPINGES UPON DIABATICALLY DESTABILIZING DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER. ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP MORE PROBABLY NEAR LM AND LOWER MI IN THE AFTERNOON. TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH AFTERNOON AS REGIME SHIFTS EWD ACROSS LOWER MI.. POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND SVR HAIL WARRANTS 5% PROBABILITIES FOR THOSE SVR MODES.
8:25 PM update: Thunderstorms pounding part of the Chicago area where there was surface convergence with the lake breeze that kicked in. They haven’t been able to make it across Lake Michigan. High temperatures today were 100 in Coldwater, Marshall and Flint, 102 in Hillsdale, 103 in Adrian, 105 in Ypsilanti and 106 in Fort Wayne, Muncie and Terre Haute IN. Grand Rapids tied a record high of 97. Lansing set a record with 98. Kalamazoo also made 98. Battle Creek made it to 99 this PM. It was MUCH cooler at the lake, where beach air temperatures were in the low-mid 70s. Check the surface map. Lower dewpoint air will make it slightly more comfortable tomorrow. Here’s current conditions, Lake Michigan water temperatures (inland lakes are mostly low 80s), a satellite loop (daytime). We have a Heat Advisory in for all areas except the lakeshore, where it is cooler. This is also a Clean Air Action Day, so free rides on the RAPID on G.R. and the MAX in Holland. The European model gives us a 2 PM temperature of 98.8 next Tuesday, which would be a high of about 102 in G.R.