Saturday AM Rain

June 29th, 2012 at 9:30 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Local 10:45 AM  Full sun north of G.R. and becoming partly cloudy south of Grand Rapids.  With sun on very dry ground, we should see temperatures back to at least the low 90s inland today, with the WSW wind making it 15 degrees cooler at the Lake Michigan beaches.  The NAM model takes us back to 96 on Monday and the European model has Grand Rapids in the low 100s next Friday (it tried to do that before and we only got to 97)…but if we’re solidly in the warm air and the ground is still dry, 100 would be doable.  At this hour, one batch of showers/storms is in Illinois.  That will pass south of Chicago into Indiana this PM.  There are a couple other upper level disturbances in the Dakotas that we’ll be tracking as storms move into Minnesota.   Check out these links: to the current conditions, regional radar, GRR radar, northern Indiana radar, and Chicago radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s closings, the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the WOOD lightning tracker and U.S. lightning and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop and the visible loop (daytime).

ADD:   Interesting video from NASA about the Coronal Mass Ejection that hit the Earth back on March 8-10.  They say it produced enough heat in the atmosphere to power/heat all of New York City for two years (2.6 Billion kw/hours).  Not that I’m implying a connection, but this was right before the big “heat wave” of March 14-22.

Also…we’ve had a lot of record high temperatures (110 at Bowling Green KY and 109 in Nashville TN Friday… the hottest EVER there), but we’ve also had quite a few record low temperatures.  There were 57 weather stations that set records for the coolest high temperature ever on that date, including Waterville, Washington, where the high was only 51.  Their previous daily lowest high temperature was 60.   Keep in mind that weather stations have different periods of records.  A weather station that has been there for over 100 years would be less likely to set an “all-time record high temperature” than one that has only been in existence for 10 years.

35 Responses to “Saturday AM Rain”

  1. Benjamin (Kalamazoo) says:

    Wind and rain here. Going to bed soon.

  2. Dan says:

    Stays hot and dry. Can we get some rain? A nice soaking rain that last all night would be great. Lets see if we do hit 100 degrees next Friday!

  3. Dan says:

    Does this sound as if the month of July will be a hot one? The NWS sure seems to thinking that.
    ONCE THE SYSTEM FROM THE ALEUTIANS DIGS GETS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
    WESTERN TROUGH (THURSDAY) THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS EVEN MORE THAN IT
    CURRENTLY HAS. IT IS AT THAT TIME WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE HOTTEST AIR
    OF THE SUMMER SO FAR. THIS WOULD BE IN THE THU-FRI TIME FRAME. I
    BLEND THE ECMWF NUMBERS WITH THE GFS NUMBERS TO PUSH THE HIGHS UP
    AROUND 5 DEGREES IN THAT TIME FRAME. THE MEAN BIAS OF THE GFS
    FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE 12TH THROUGH THE 29TH FOR THE
    ENTIRE CWA IS OVER 8 DEGREES (USING BOIVERIFY) TO COLD SO WARMING
    THE HIGHS TOTALLY MAKES SENSE.

  4. mike[kalamazoo county] says:

    Half a tenth last night. Looks like In. got some decent rain. It would seem to me with the driest areas of In. getting some rain we should start to see more rain it should be easier to get the atmosphere juiced up.

  5. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    This sounds good for our area next week we might actually get what Illinois and Ohio, and Indiana had:) this is from the grr forecast discussion.

    AS FOR THE RISK OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS THIS COMING WEEK… SEEMS TUE
    INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY IS OUR BEST SHOT. IT IS IN THAT TIME FRAME THE
    EJECTED SYSTEM FROM OFF THE WEST COAST CROSSES THE TOP OF THE UPPER
    RIDGE AND DIVES INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH. THAT STALLS THE FRONT OVER
    LOWER MICHIGAN FOR A TIME AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THAT IS OUR
    WINDOW FOR CONVECTION. THIS MAY BE MCS TYPE STORMS ROLLING ACROSS
    OUR AREA LIKE THEY HAVE BEEN OVER NRN IL/ NRN IN THAT PAST 24 HOURS
    OR SO. THAT BEING SO SOME AREA MAY SEE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAIN.

    1. Deb (Ludington) says:

      Jordan you dont want what Ohio had do you?? I mean over 500,000 people are in the dark and will be for days with heat, do you want that here because it’s expected to be in the 90′s all week long, I sure would not want that here in Michigan!!!!

      1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

        I wouldn’t want that, yes I adore a good heart pounding storm but I always say not to the poin that it affects lives and does extensive damage and loss of lives, now as far as the rain fall they got, you bet! But I can also see flash flood warnings out since the ground is so dry it won’t be able to absorb the water quickly, but maybe it will.

        1. Deb (Ludington) says:

          Oh yes that to loss of lives just horrible!!!!

          NO STORMS! NO STORMS! NO STORMS! NO STORMS! PLEASE STAY AWAY FROM MICHIGAN!!!

        2. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

          Deb I thought you love storms???

        3. Deb (Ludington) says:

          I do but nothing like Ohio saw!!!

        4. fixxxer says:

          from what i understand the one we had here in 98 was far worse.

        5. Deb (Ludington) says:

          Yet their expecting another line today fixxxer so it may be worse down their!

    2. ~Sherry~(Comstock Park) says:

      I would like the rain and some nice storms but what they got south and east of us is not good. Remember back in 98 when we had that derecho. I hope the people there are okay and that the heat does not become too much now that a lot of them do not have power.

      1. Deb (Ludington) says:

        There’s already been 6 deaths from these storms and over 2 dozen injured I am praying!

  6. michael g (SE GR) says:

    Bring on the storms!

    Some relief on the way, I sure do hope so…

    https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/219052043439050752/photo/1

    1. fixxxer says:

      lol that guy is soo full of it. he has been wrong 9 times out of 10

      1. Dan says:

        Oh look, its fixxxer calling Bastardi wrong! I’m shocked! How is your track record for accuracy, fixxxer? Have you left your apartment building one time yet this Spring/Summer?

        1. fixxxer says:

          he was dead wrong. he said we would have a “cool” summer pattern.

        2. Brad says:

          Bastardi is a narcissist.

  7. Joe says:

    What was the official high yesterday for GR?

    1. Dan says:

      Not official but I think GR hit 89 degrees yesterday. Then, some clouds moved in and took the temp down some. I’m sure what the official reported high temp was!

    2. Cort S. says:

      89 at 1:40 pm EDT before the clouds rolled in.

  8. Kimoeagle says:

    We DID get a smattering of rain here in NE Indiana, but much of it went to our south, along with the (apparently) straight-line winds that hit about 20 mi. S of us, e.g., DeKalb and Allen counties, and Ohio counties to their east.
    Here’s what an area NWS meteorologist said regarding the damage to our southern neighbours: “The damage was caused by severe thunderstorms, not tornadoes, Bentley said. While tornado warnings were issued in Ohio, no tornadoes were confirmed for this storm, which storm appears to have been a bowing line of widespread wind damage.”
    I have a question: What, exactly, is a “derecho”? It HAS to be something more than a fast-moving line of thunderstorms, because we’ve had our share of those and nobody used this word to describe them. Was this a meteorological term that was gathering dust? ;-)

    1. Kimoeagle says:

      FWIWD: Barometer is steady at 29.70″, with temp. at a mild 76F — right now, anyway.

    2. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

      A derecho is a long lasting line of straight line winds like 500-1000 miles and they don’t give up they just keep growing like yesterdays storm, it started small around the Chicago area but grew in size and lasted a very long time hitting over 700 miles!

    3. Cort S. says:

      Derecho has been a fairly well-known word in West Michigan after May 1998. The definition can be found on this page. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/derechofacts.htm Some other definitions may include a time duration component to the definition.

      Northern Indiana gets a derecho about once a year. Some are worse than others, though. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/climatologypage.htm

  9. Dan says:

    I’m sure someone can explain Derecho a whole lot better than I can.
    It is strong winds/straight line winds also associated with a wind gust out ahead of the front. Derechos are very powerful! Hope that helps!

    1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

      and are very long lasting and very large in size

      :)

  10. Brad says:

    So you’re comparing record highs for the month at the state level and all-time record highs for cities and even states to record “cold highs” and lows for single dates at single locations? It’s a matter of scale, bro!

    1. Brad says:

      I’d also like to see deaths, power outages, and crop failures associated with these record cold highs and record lows, sir.

    2. Bill Steffen says:

      Yeah…and since you appreciate the concept, check out this graph: http://media2.newsnet5.com//photo/2012/06/08/StateRecordsAllTime_20120608221531_320_240.JPG Look at all those state record high temperatures in the 1930s. Grand Rapids had 12 days of 100+ degree heat in the 1930s and we’ve only hit 100 once in the last 47 years.

      700 fatalities from cold last winter in Eastern Europe: http://articles.cnn.com/2012-02-01/world/world_europe_europe-cold-snap_1_celsius-death-toll-ukraine?_s=PM:EUROPE

      1. Brad says:

        LOL- Bill, that chart is outdated!

        1. Brad says:

          And now you’re comparing record cold winter temps in Europe to record lows in June in the mid-50s. LOL!

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          The graph is fine. There may have been one state record high in the 2000s. I don’t know if that was finally confirmed. I haven’t been looking, but I haven’t seen any state record highs this month. There was a state record low set in Maine in 2007 (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/car/News_Items/2009-02-10_item001.htm) and there should have been one set in Illinois in the same winter. In any case, there were many more heat records set in the 1930s than the present.

          Europe was in a deep chill, heavy snow, a struggle to stay alive, 700 fatalities. Hardly what the warming alarmists thought: http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html Here’s the Northern Hemisphere snowfall map from Rutgers: http://www.real-science.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/namgnld_season1-4.gif

  11. Bill:
    Interesting theory on heat from CMEs. NASA did say 95% of the heat is reflected back into space. A test of your theory would be to look back at October 2003 I think it was when we had that powerful X9 CME that dumped power on the east coast (the last top of the sunspot cycle). Was that associated with a corresponding heat wave? Are solar cycle maximums typically associated with heat waves – do heat waves come in 11 year cycles? There should be a relationship if your theory holds much water. Anyone else in meteorology talking about it?

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