Severe Risk

June 30th, 2012 at 11:05 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook 1630 UTC Day 2 Outlook 1630 UTC Day 3 Outlook These are the Severe Weather Outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center for Day 1, Day 2 and Day 3. The Slight Risk area for this Saturday covers the same area that got blasted by the derecho on Friday (read thread below – 4 dead, tens of millions in damage, 4 million without power).   Regional radar shows the storms to our south from Illinois to the East Coast. The best chance for storms in Lower Michigan will be Tues. into maybe early Weds. The overall hot weather pattern will persist.  The Saturday morning run of the NAM model is in (it’s 11:10 AM as I write this) and it gives G.R. a comfortable low of 62 tonight, 92 tomorrow, 90 on Monday, a chance of rain (less than 1/10 inch) Tues. AM and they 97 for a high Tues. PM (Kalamazoo and Lansing get 99.3).  We have to hope for rain – we need it – without the rain, we’ll have a better chance of reaching 100 degrees later next week or the week after.

3 PM – It’s 90 in Mt. Pleasant, Big Rapids and Ionia, 89 in Grand Rapids, 87 in Kalamazoo and Battle Creek (a bit more cloud cover south of G.R.  Beach temperatures much cooler.  Muskegon Lighthouse 72, S. Haven Lighthouse 70, Holland St. Park (at the water’s edge) 70.

65 Responses to “Severe Risk”

  1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    Bill NWS in GR says MCS is possible for us Tues night and WQednesday is that true?? I want some good storms :) but not as bad as Ohio ???

  2. Dan says:

    Lets go for a rain dance! Altogether, now! WE NEED the rain.
    Bring the rain! Do you remember kids doing a snow dance when the weather looked as if a snowstorm was on the way? LETs do the RAIN DANCE!

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      I have a high degree of confidence that it will rain again here in Michigan.
      And when it dose rain lest hope its not like what happened just to our south! It should be noted that here in GR we have had 2.17″ of rain and just as recent as 2006 we only had 1.77″ in that June.
      SlimJim

  3. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Some of the areas that seen the record lows a few days ago (in Kentucky) were also the same areas that seen the record highs just a few days later. One good thing about it being dry out is that it has (for now) cut down on the number of mosquitoes and of course one will not have to cut the grass as much and if not watered not at all. Now if it stays dry (it may or may not) then if we get a hot ridge over head then we will stand a better chance of getting above 100° and to me that 110° down in Bowling Green yesterday was almost unbelievable here are some other temps in central Kentucky and southern Indiana.

    :…KENTUCKY…
    :
    BRRK2 : BARREN RIVER LAKE : DH0800 / 107 / 68 / 0.00
    BNBK2 : BRANDENBURG : DH0630 / 102 / 70 / 0.00
    CNRK2 : CORNERS : DH0700 / 102 / 63 / 0.00
    GRLK2 : GREEN RIVER LAKE : DH0800 / 109 / 74 / 0.00
    JMTK2 : JAMESTOWN : DH0700 / 103 / 61 / 0.00
    LMK : LOUISVILLE NWS : DH0700 / 104 / 72 / 0.00
    LYNK2 : LYNDON : DH0700 / 101 / 77 / 0.00
    MLTK2 : MILLERTOWN 4E : DH0700 / 105 / 64 / 0.00
    NOLK2 : NOLIN RIVER LAKE : DH0800 / 111 / 68 / 0.00
    RRLK2 : ROUGH RIVER LAKE : DH0800 / 110 / 70 / 0.00
    SCTK2 : SCOTTSVILLE : DH0600 / 106 / 72 / 0.00
    STGK2 : STAMPING GROUND 5N : DH0700 / 101 / 62 / 0.00
    TVLK2 : TAYLORSVILLE LAKE : DH0800 / 106 / 63 / 0.00
    :
    :…INDIANA…
    :
    LVWI3 : LEAVENWORTH 2NW : DH0700 / 104 / 71 / 0.00
    LXTI3 : LEXINGTON 3N : DH0700 / 99 / 66 / 0.00
    PRLI3 : PATOKA LAKE : DH0800 / 108 / 72 / 0.00
    TELI3 : TELL CITY : DH0700 / 105 / 75 / 0.00
    .END
    .BR LMK 0630 E DH07/PPDRZZ

    Sunny and 84° here now.

    SlimJim

    1. Brad says:

      And this is despite all that Midwestern corn Bill likes to post about. And imagine what the temperatures would be if the Great Plains were in “dust bowl” conditions right now. It’s simply inconceivable.

      We’re going to smash the # of 90-degree days Bill predicted, and soar above his predicted max temperature of 94F. Summer will be well above average, just like winter.

      1. michael g (SE GR) says:

        * here.

        1. Brad says:

          Bill’s a local meteorologist. His winter and summer forecasts failed to predict the warm anomalies, perhaps indicating a bias or the flaws associated with divining seasonal conditions based on patterns in previous years- which can be a temptation, if there is a suggestion of potential patterns that we have not identified formally. We are warm, warm, warm, and the sprinkling of record daily lows is overwhelmed by the scale and intensity of the warm anomalies- cities states are setting all time monthly highs and all time highs on the heels of Bill’s posts about the lack of such extremes in recent decades.

        2. Brad says:

          And let’s all keep in mind the low solar activity we’re experiencing!

        3. Brad says:

          And Bill’s Arctic icecap he was referring to on a near-daily basis in March and April: http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/arctic-sea-ice-shrinks-lowest-june-extent-ever-observed

        4. bsteffen says:

          The corn/soybeans aren’t much of a factor now first because it’s early in the growing season and second because of the dry conditions, less transpiration.

          We’ve been moving ice from the Arctic to the Antarctic: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.antarctic.png The South Polar icecap can’t even get back to average extent in the summer!!! Amazing. June in G.R. is going to be about 2.4 degrees warmer than average. The Antarctic icecap is not only above average extent, but it’s much bigger than last year! http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_timeseries.png

          Globally, we are 0.01 degree Celsius BELOW the 30-year mean temperature this year: http://policlimate.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_t2m_ytd_anom.png

      2. Mike M. says:

        The sad thing about CAGW believers is that their spirits are uplifted when things get worse.

        1. Brad says:

          I doubt it- that said, drought and pestilence could be good for Mitt Romney!

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          And $7 gasoline like brad favors wouldn’t be good for anyone, much less the economy.

        3. big Daddy BC says:

          $3 or $4 would be fine if it wasn’t all going into the pockets of oil execs and politicians. In more civilized parts of the world, gas taxes are used to pay for all kinds of good works. In the good old US, we allow oil companies to rape the middle class while the GOP politicians stand firm on continuing to subsidize the most lucrative business on Earth. That’s right kids, not only do we take it in the rear at the pump, we give them ten billion a year in tax dollars too!!
          Drill baby drill, right Bill? Oh that’s right, you’re still concerned with the Solyndra loan fiasco. LOL

        4. Bill Steffen says:

          Politicians like Obama: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0510/36783.html

          Go here: http://www.aflcio.org/Corporate-Watch/CEO-Pay-and-You/100-Highest-Paid-CEOs Note it’s from the AFL-CIO Exxon is the biggest company in the U.S. Their CEO is only #14 in highest compensation. There’s a lot of liberals on that list that push a higher % of the profits into their pockets.

  4. fixxxer says:

    still not looking good for any storms here.

    1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

      Tues night into Wednesday morning fixxxer!

      1. fixxxer says:

        sure.

    2. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      It will rain again and yes it will storm again maybe as soon as Tuesday.
      SlimJim

  5. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    While its on the other side of the state here is a list of the top wettest and driest Junes and Julys
    June

    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/display_climate.php?file=wetjun.htm

    July
    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/display_climate.php?file=wetjul.htm

    SlimJim

  6. Steelie says:

    Good Day,

    Somehow I am reminded of a Cole Porter tune… ;-)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xhs3Qklz5a0&feature=related

    Steelie

  7. Here you go friends, some Reverse Lightning I captured on 5/28/12 while chasing in the plains. Rare to capture this sort of thing, so I was excited. Let’s hope for storms!! http://on.fb.me/LMAdY9

  8. fixxxer says:

    Still hoping for some severe weather here soon.

    1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

      Fixxxer look the GRR forecast discussion they say the MCS could go though our area next week sometime

      1. fixxxer says:

        All hype this far out. If anything it looks dry & hot for the next week at least.

    2. Jack says:

      Hope Springs Eternal.!!!

      1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

        Read it fixxxer they say it’s going to happen because of something out west not sure what because I haven’t checked it in a while but all we can do is HOPE:)

        1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

          Here it is again….

          AS FOR THE RISK OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS THIS COMING WEEK… SEEMS TUE
          INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY IS OUR BEST SHOT. IT IS IN THAT TIME FRAME THE
          EJECTED SYSTEM FROM OFF THE WEST COAST CROSSES THE TOP OF THE UPPER
          RIDGE AND DIVES INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH. THAT STALLS THE FRONT OVER
          LOWER MICHIGAN FOR A TIME AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THAT IS OUR
          WINDOW FOR CONVECTION. THIS MAY BE MCS TYPE STORMS ROLLING ACROSS
          OUR AREA LIKE THEY HAVE BEEN OVER NRN IL/ NRN IN THAT PAST 24 HOURS
          OR SO. THAT BEING SO SOME AREA MAY SEE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAIN

        2. fixxxer says:

          Well we can hope but thats about it.

        3. Deb (Ludington) says:

          With the grr’s 3:30pm update there not talking about it anymore Jordan so probably not!

          But you can still hope there’s nothing wrong about that :)

        4. Deb (Ludington) says:

          Here’s the update…..

          .LONG TERM…(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
          ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

          A WARM FRONT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
          THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. BEYOND THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING
          HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING THE
          LOW TO MID 90S DAILY AS H8 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE LOW TO PERHAPS
          MID 20S BY LATE WEEK. IT WILL BE RATHER HUMID AS WELL WITH DEW POINT
          VALUES WELL INTO THE 60S. LOW TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S.

          A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT WEEKEND ALONG
          WITH POTENTIAL FOR THE WEATHER PATTERN TO FINALLY CHANGE FOR EARLY
          IN THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

  9. fixxxer says:

    Seems to me were in a blocking pattern here. Everything is coming well north or south of us. Ill even admit this is odd.

  10. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    I hate this HEAT!!!! REALLY another whole week of it and it’s making the storms go south of us :( :( :(

    1. fixxxer says:

      Its not bad out at all with the breeze and clouds. Not excatly the heat wave they were talking about.

      1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

        But next week is supposed to be hot again :(
        temps 90-95 all week long with heat index’s of 100-105 :(

        1. fixxxer says:

          Nothing is ever set in stone weather wise here. We shall see.

  11. Deb (Ludington) says:

    But this may be hope Jordan so don’t give up….

    CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO INCREASE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
    NIGHT. A LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON WESTERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY
    NIGHT…AND THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL LIKELY
    TRY TO ROLL EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO LOWER MICHIGAN INTO MONDAY. IF
    STORMS DO NOT HOLD TOGETHER…CONVECTIVE VORT ACTIVITY MAY
    PROPAGATE EAST INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AIDING IN
    STORMS ALONG THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. MONDAY NIGHT MAY ALSO BE
    ACTIVE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET REFORMS OVERHEAD AND INTO THE NORTHERN
    GREAT LAKES. THE DAY THREE OUTLOOK HAS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IN A
    SEE TEXT AREA FOR STORMS.

    1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

      See that’s exactly what I’m saying it will redevelop inland Ughhhh!!!!!! Muskegon county hardly ever gets anything :(

      1. Deb (Ludington) says:

        Oh chear up you never know like fixxxer said the weather is not set in stone we could end up getting a nice line of storms be positive don’t give up :)

        1. Jack says:

          I’ll drink to that…..CHEERS…..

  12. Jeff (SE Ionia County) says:

    Bank of clouds been hanging over my area the last hour.

  13. fixxxer says:

    Anybodies elses mail real late latley? I just had to call and file a complaint. I wonder if those storms yesterday will delay mail next week?

    1. Mark (Okemos) says:

      Got ours at 10:30 this morning. The earliest on a Saturday I can remember.

      1. fixxxer says:

        Ours always comes at 5-6pm.

        1. michael g (SE GR) says:

          I didn’t think welfare checks came out until the first of the month fix. You’ll have to wait until Monday.

    2. Jack says:

      Fixer it’s always that way in the summer time, as Subs. Fill in for your normal carrier….Just Saying.

      1. fixxxer says:

        Usps sucks anymore. Thats why their getting a government bailout.

        1. Mailman says:

          USPS is not getting any “bailout” they are another section of the government, and are being downsized accordingly just like many other levels of government. With the rise of new technologies, they must consolidate sorting plants and other post offices down, so that there can even be a postal service for future generations. Mail delivery is a free service, paid only by postage. You taxes DO NOT PAY for the employees or services provided by USPS. With downsizing, comes changes of route schemes. There is no “time limit” on the mail. I may just come at a different time.

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          I’ve had excellent service from the Post Office in Comstock Park in the 35 years I’ve lived here. I could count on my fingers the number of mail pieces that have been misdelivered to my house in these 35 years. I’m an old guy that still sends cards through the mail. I try and send at least 3 cards a week to my mother. I order stamps online or through the catalog. My last order was over $200. I like the forever stamps, so I won’t have to worry about finding penny stamps to add on. I think being a mail carrier would be a pleasant job…you get to see the weather each day, meet mostly friendly people.

    3. Dan says:

      Go easy on the mail carriers. They have a difficult job on many days!
      My mail always arrives around 12 noon, give or take a few minutes either way!

      1. fixxxer says:

        Wish i could but ours decided to call it early today and was sent back out to our building only after i called the post office lol.

  14. Jeff (SE Ionia County) says:

    Dang, the updated 8 day is even more heated than earlier !

  15. Dan says:

    Heat and dry conditions will continue! I love this kind of weather. However, we NEED rain!

    1. fixxxer says:

      Yup people better start watering.

      1. Jeff (SE Ionia County) says:

        Ive been watering the last 4 weeks now .

    2. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

      Next week is probably our best bet for rain only Monday through Wednesday!

  16. Steelie says:

    Good Day,

    Fireworks spark local grss fire:

    http://www.woodtv.com/dpp/news/local/kent_county/Grass-fires-give-residents-a-scare

    If you absolutely must light these things, please use a little common sense. Such as light them on concrete, away from your house, like near the end of your driveway and keep the garden hose closeby. And please, no bottle rockets either, those can cause fires too… It’s just too dry out.

    Steelie

    1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

      I honestly think Rick Snyder will change his mind because already I have seen 5 grass fires because of fireworks lite by teens, Come on really d you not see were in a drought????

      Watch them ruin it all for us!!!

      1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

        Got fireworks shooting off right now over Pine Lake, at least it’s over a lake, but yeah I am not sure shooting off fireworks at this time is the best, besides we don’t need fireworks to remind us all of our freedom and independency, our service men/women constantly fight to give us our independency and freedom, no need for fireworks to remind us, perhaps a thank you to to our service men/women.

        1. Jack says:

          Thanks to All our serviceMen and Women and their Familys, Prayers and Love to All..God Bless…

  17. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    This weather just pisses me off :( it’s so dry!!!

    this weather needs to get better!

    1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

      I think i’ve jumped on the “Debbie Downer” band wagon when it comes to any talk of storms, it’s been so dry and as Fixxxer has said and what we all have seen they are all either North or South, boring pattern.

    2. Brian(Grandville) says:

      Beside 1988 this is the hottest dry pattern I have ever seen.

  18. Brian(Grandville) says:

    I think I’m becoming immune to the heat, witch is a good thing looking at the 8 day. The lack of humidity later in the day is making it more tolerable for me I think. Hoping for some rain soon.

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