Baseball-Sized Hail!!
July 4th, 2012 at 4:06 pm by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, News, Weather
8:40 PM – Shelf/roll cloud coming off Keweenaw Bay near L’Anse in the U.P. this PM. Picture from Suzy Van Auken – click to enlarge. Update from SPC. Severe T-Storm Watch has been cancelled for all but the Detroit area and that will be cancelled shortly. The last rain is exiting Detroit and the Tigers game is starting. Storm Track Live estimates 2 1/2 to 4 1/2″ of rain in SW Isabella Co. Baseball-sized hail was reported in Remus – far eastern Mecosta Co. That storm clipped NE Montcalm Co. – trees down in Mt. Pleasant and very heavy rain from these storms. A couple fires have been started by lightning in Mt. Pleasant, including one at an apartment building. Hail as big as ping-pong balls for over 30 minutes near Blanchard (Isabella Co.) 1″ Diameter hail in Weidman in western Isabella Co. Flood Warning for far eastern Mecosta and Isabella Counties until midnight. Here’s storm reports from the Mt. Pleasant area, SE Michigan (golfball-sized hail, wind damage, flooding and a fire), and Upper Michigan (golfball-sized hail and heavy rain).
Dr. Gregg Horbes TWC was saying a drecheo is going to hit West Michigan tonight starting to look that way!!! Thee Guy knows weather and he’s kn ows whats he’s talking about that was at 430pm today!! INDYY…
I’m just not seeing that, Indy…
The NWS hazardous weather outlook definitely isn’t predicting anything of that extreme nature happening tonight. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=grr&product=hwo&issuedby=grr
Well TWC and the NWS are a little off from each other!! INDYY,,
You’re right about that. TWC seems to be “off” most of the time…LOL.
I think Indy has a point as well as Dr. Forbes. Take a look at NWS radar, MD’S discussion and watches. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/
You never know…
Indy if you watch the entire loop you can obviously tell the storms are headed our way they seem to be following the front:
http://www.fox17online.com/weather/fox17-mi-satrad,0,6652224.htmlstory
with the south/se direction they’re going I could see them reaching cadillac or perhaps big rapids, but not so sure about grand rapids unless they really drop down?
That would require a very sharp angle SE and extreme (almost ludicrous
) speed to get here from where they are right now. Honestly, it’s not very likely; look at a radar loop and estimate what direction and speed they’re moving in at the moment…
Cadillac? Yes, possibly. GR — not so much. They’ll be well past West Michigan by the time they drop to our latitude.
Yes thats what I figured as well.
WXMI copy and paste???
Stephen 2am will be the sweet time for us our own fireworks coming about time I have only been getting ready for 8 days now for a good storm if they hold!! INDYY….
hope you all had a good 4th, i haven’t left the house as ive been sick all darn day. first year ive missed the fireworks with my kids.
Sorry to hear that fix. As much as we disagree its never fun to miss family time with the kids
Get Well Soon…… Fixxxxxer…P.S. It’s still the 4th of July. God Bless You and The U.S.A. ,!!
Sorry to hear that fixxxer. Not good being sick in this heat. I hope you feel better soon!
Hope we get some rain in the next couple of days, so the poor farmers don’t lose all their crops.
Amen to That Barb…The Farmer Feeds Us ALL……
Looks as though we’re going to get some thunder boomers here in Cheboygan tonight. I can hear thunder in the distance when I stand on the shore.
Well, we came down from a 100 degree day, and fireworks have been cancelled for all of the NE counties… so I watched them on PBS.
NE Indiana counties, that is.
why did SPC keep us in slight there’s no way that compelx gets hear before day 2 begins
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WHERE THE
REMNANTS OF THE U.P. CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL MOSTLY HEAD. THE
TREND OF THESE STORMS HAVE ALREADY WEAKENED THIS EVENING…BUT
SOME MAY SURVIVE INTO THE CLARE…MT. PLEASANT AND ALMA AREAS.
Bill How far south so you think that storm north of us will get? I live in STanton area seems it is heading in the right direction real question will be if it holds up?
well it appears that the I’ll call it a non-severe MCS is following the front so will see
Would be happy with just rain we need it. We got good storms last 2 days but rains so hard hardly any gets absorbed
Some cells popping over the lake off that line…hmm.
thats the line of storms from Minnesota…
Ar this rate I’ll take anything
me too!! I am desperate for some rain/storms lol
Hmm look at that katie and lisa you doubt me but i was right about those storms heading right at us
Just need to pay attention once in a while LMAO! just kidding 
I still have a feeling it will go north of us….but thats just because we’ve missed out so many times this summer I’m trying not to get too excited lol! :p
That line is picking up strength too running on 3000 to 4000 MUCAPE which builds builds builds!
well we are in a slight risk still so?
Where the heck is INDY and Jordan I need some enthusiastic weather people to track with
BTW Cabby just hit is second HR
Pssh Im up right now i get enthusiastic!
SHH don’t wake FIX
Cue : Glen Frey……PARTYTOWN..
They are coming this way. The question is, will they weaken and fizzle out..??
hopefully with are pretty unstable airmass they wont
we have decent instability right now
3000 Surface Based Cape 4000 SUCAPE not bad for this time of night
Watching that line as is dips south also watch storms over into Minnesota
. That line is gaining strength maybe it will be severe when it gets here lets hope 
Yep it sure is gaining strength jordan we have ALOT of instability in the airmass right now!
I would totally stay up and be extremely tired tomorrow at work just to be excited about getting a good storm. If it fails, I will give up all hope lol.
I have no obligations TMW, It’s time to TRACK!!!
So IF they were to make it here what time are you all thinking? Maybe I will set a middle of the night alarm! Haven’t see storms for so long I forgot what they look like, lol.
haha same here
I’m staying up until like 2 for the next SPC update but I live near I-94 so It’s going to be until near 4-5 am before there near me
Way to hot and humid today. Storms to the N.W. seem to be producing some outflow boundaries that are firing up, we’ll see what happens in the next two hours.
Those storms are ganging even more strength just waiting for that MD to be issued:)
It will be interesting to see if there severe yet once they hit some land
right now the winds are EST at 40 knots or 46 MPH
Going to bed but I will say my weather prayers first:)
Sure would be nice to get those storms. They look like they are heading our way but you never know lately. Seems like any rain either falls apart our goes around us. But being an optimist I will keep my fingers crossed!!
But like Stephen said earlier the conditions are just right tonight might be all those fireworks giving us luck LOL!
We will take anything we can get at this point!! Maybe this will be Mother Natures fireworks for us!!
MD FOR US!!!
WATCH UNLIKELY!!!
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…20 PERCENT
SUMMARY…STORMS WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
MARGINAL HAIL POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION…AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH SWD ACROSS ERN WI
EWD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN…WITH CELLS FORMING ALONG AND BEHIND.
ALTHOUGH STRONG INSTABILITY EXISTS AS SEEN ON 00Z GRB
SOUNDING…CONTINUED COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIKELY
SHALLOW CONVERGENCE HAS STYMIED GROWTH POTENTIAL OF THESE STORMS.
NONETHELESS…GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 KT APPEAR LIKELY WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THESE STORMS AND OUTFLOW. A FEW CORES MAY BRIEFLY YIELD
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL…BUT WITH WEAK SHEAR PROFILES…THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE LONG LIVED.
MD OUT!!
Watch unlikely though
issuance only 20%
Watch unlikely
Watch unlikely
…oh well…we need rain!
Looks like no Watch but the storms could be margianlly severe
But on the bright side were going to get much needed rain:)
if this was here during the day they’d severe :/ oh well, we need the rain
Who cares if they are severe? we need the rain gang!
I think they might be weakening!
What are you looking at, they seem to be ganging strength.