Fryday
July 6th, 2012 at 12:05 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
For most of you, Thursday and Friday (and or the southern part of the state maybe Saturday, too) will be the hottest 2 days that you have ever experienced in the State of Michigan. There’s a good chance that these two days will the be the hottest back-to-back days in Gr. Rapids since 1936. The daily record for today is 100 in 7/6/88 and we’ll probably top that. The chance of rain is not zero, but it is small today and tonight, up to 40% Saturday evening/night.
Model data: The 00Z Friday NAM MOS model forecast high temperatures for Fri./Sat./Sun: Grand Rapids 104/100/84, Kalamazoo and Battle Creek 105/106/86, Holland Regional Airport 100/99/84, Sturgis 102/106/84, Jackson 102/102/83, Coldwater 100/104/85, Lansing 101/95/81, Alma 101/89/81, Benton Harbor 96/96/83, Cadillac 95/78/77, Jackson 102/102/83, Muskegon 96/92/82, S. Haven 95/90/81, Marshall 98/87/81, Marshall 102/100/85. Look at the difference on Saturday from 78 at Cadillac to 100 in G. Rapids. The chance of rain is highest north and least along and south of I-94. The chance of rain is mainly from Cadillac and north Friday night and is highest for the rest of us Saturday night…with the chance at about 60% for Lansing to Mt. Pleasant to Cadillac, but only 30% for Kalamazoo.
NAM Caribou numbers: Grand Rapids 102.9/102.7/86.4, Lansing 101.7/104.2/84.0, Muskegon 98.1/95.7/85.8, Kalamazoo 105.6/104.9/89.2, Mt. Pleasant 98.6/88.0/81.7, Big Rapids 99.5/93.6/83.1, Jackson 103.5, 106.0, 86.9, The model rainfall amounts are mostly for Saturday night and are mostly 1/3rd inch or less.
The GFS model has been running about 5-8 degrees too low on high temperatures. It gives Grand Rapids 97 today and 91 on Saturday. It has the best chance of storms north of US 10 during Saturday PM and south of US 10 Saturday night, and gives most areas about a 40% chance of rain (higher in N. Lower Michigan).
The European model 2 PM temps. for Friday/Saturday (highs would be a 2-4 degrees higher than the 2 PM temp.): Grand Rapids 99/97.9, Kalamazoo 99.3/98.6, Sturgis 98.6/99.5/Big Rapids 96.6/91.8, Cadillac 94.6/82.2 (you can see the cooler air starting to come into Cadillac during Saturday. The Euro. gives G.R. a 2 PM temperature of 82.9 on Sunday. Not much rain…only 0.14″ for G.R. later Sat. night into very early Sunday, .11″ for Kalamazoo, Big Rapids gets 0.3″ Saturday night. Scroll down thru the threads below for more on the heat, some links and some historical data on heat waves. Stay cool everybody…thanks for checking the blog.
Ya hooooo. Its too hot! kids loved being in the pool all day.
Spin: Jonathan Edwards ( shanty )….or…The Fryday Song…….
His song Sunshine would be appropriate also!
So from Interstate 96 points south still have chance at 100F on saturday Bill ?
The models are delaying the front a few hours.
From Andy Schut: Wednesday’s and Thursday’s average temperature of 89 in Grand Rapids put our past two days (July 4 and July 5, 2012) in a pretty exclusive club. Since 1894, only 18 days have had an average high temperature of 89 or higher! Given a high low tonight and another degree or two higher forecasted for Friday afternoon, July 6 will be a day that is really remarkable! The warmest mean temperature was 94 on July 13, 1936 (high of 108 and low of 79).
I do not like this heat!!
Yeah, I’ve had enough too. If I didn’t have a dog that’s all the ‘family’ I have, I could prolly just grin through all of this.
She’s done really well with this ‘baking’, but it’s been too many days of worrying about her. Until Bill’s post above, I thought today would be the last….but now I see we have to deal with Saturday as well.
Ugh.
I really feel for those who don’t have air conditioning or have to work outside – I remember the heat wave of 88 – I lost a good check of my popcorn crop that summer. I believe this will (hopefully) be a once in a life time event for the record books. I hope the above normal temps don’t carry over into the fall and winter. I was looking at the CPC long range and it looks like it is going to remain dry for the next couple weeks.
I put a meat thermometer on one of my solar cells outside – it jumped up to 160 degrees!
I was hoping for a cooler summer but that idea was torched….
I feel sorry for people not only can not afford Air but can not also afford heat in the winter time either. As for the long term the long range still look warm and dry into early fall then all bets are off for the upcoming winter. I feel this will be the last of the very warm summers in this time frame and we will now see several cooler summers the next several years and of course that holds true for the winters as well.
SlimJim
I agree – and hope – I am a winter person having lived in the central highlands of Maine for several years in the 70′s and experienced real winters where it can snow a foot an hour in the mountains. This is why I laugh when people panic when it snows an inch an hour here in Michigan. I hope this winter talk will bring cooler air into the Great Lakes… Hey fixxxer and INDY, do you want to chime in on this?
Currently 100 degrees in Otsego…. (down in the bowl)
I would like to add that air conditioning was non existent when I was a kid – if it was hot at night we slept out on the porch or in the yard. I never had air until the 90s – you just toughed it out and drank a lot of water (and Sprites) ha ha – guess I am spoiled now…
RECORD EVENT REPORT …CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS, MI
537 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012
…RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT GRAND RAPIDS MI…
AT 516 PM THIS AFTERNOON…THE TEMPERATURE IN GRAND RAPIDS HIT 101
DEGREES. THIS BREAKS THE JULY 5 RECORD HIGH OF 100 SET IN
1921…AND PREVIOUSLY IN 1911.
We don’t have air at home and it was 90 upstairs (where the bedrooms and bathroom are) this morning–and that’s with leaving the draperies/blinds closed all day! The main floor is a little cooler at 83. If we didn’t have a window unit for the bedroom, we’d never be able to sleep. In the 8 years we’ve been in this house, we’ve never needed more than the window unit for the few days each summer where it gets really hot. This year, that poor little AC has been working major overtime.
Just think if you din not have central heat in the winter time how “cool” your bedrooms/bath would be! Back in 1936 air was very rare and only a few businesses had it so I am sure they suffered back then much more then we are now (not saying some are not uncomfortable now but there are more places to go to cool off now)
SlimJim
I know how cool they would get because our 35-year-old furnace went out one January! We had to wait almost a week for a new one. It was definitely cold in the house.
Record lows are rarely mentioned here, although they’re rising faster than highs.
Last year GR’s average max was a half degree higher than the ’81-10 average, while the minimum was a whole degree hotter. Now consider that the ’81-10 average has been adjusted up by a half degree. That puts the real deviation at 1 1/2 on the low end and 1 degree on the warm end.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=grr&product=cla&issuedby=grr
…And this year’s going to put last year to shame.
In addition, I have little faith in that 108 degree measurement from 1936. I’m picturing some guy wandering around the asphalt airport with a mercury thermometer. Our measurements are far more accurate today.
I found this interesting:
“Location makes a difference in recording temperature. The official Grand Rapids weather data comes from the NWS at the Ford Airport. While that weather station made 101 today, other thermometers did not get that warm. The high temperature at weather stations here at WOOD-TV (Heritage Hill), GVSU Downtown and Calvin College all recorded a maximum temperature of 97 today.”
It looks like the more “urban” weather stations actually had lower high temperature readings than the airport station.
It’s already 90* with an EAST wind.
I bet this will be the first day ever, in my lifetime, that an East wind will not affect my sinus, lol!
It’s 88* in Lansing. We got some rain yesterday. I was soooo glad. Cooled it off for about an hour or so. I do like hot weather, but this is hooooweee… hot, hot, hot!!!!!
Stay cool everybody!!
I hate this heat – and the lack of rain is having some nasty side-effects (I realize this is small potatoes compared to farmer’s losing their crops) – since I keep my yard watered, the GEESE have broken through my defenses in search of green grass; and this morning I filled 2 grocery bags with goose-poo – ughh!! And at work, the moles from the adjacent field seem to be enjoying the cooler (watered) earth at OUR place – so now I have mole tunnels everywhere….
Bill – when I was on the Coed softball team from Madison Square Church in July 1993, I recall a day when it was nearly 100 degrees – but must not have been because there is no mention of a 100-degree day in your records apparently. We were playing softball anyway, they did not postpone the game. It was nearly 100% humidity too – and we were out there playing softball at the Christian Reformed Rec Center on a Tuesday evening! It seemed we were moving from base to base in slow motion, and that was the only time I hit a home run
I recall that night we had fierce storms. Quite a nice memory for me because I haven’t played softball since then – mostly due to an old head injury.
Marti, this would have been in the 70′s but some of my fondest childhood memories are of going to the Rec Center and watching my dad play ball on our church team. My sisters & I always got some change to go to the concession stand and buy a treat to have while watching the game. Thanks for taking me back to a wonderful time:)
Whoops put it in the wrong place…………….
Are you sure it was 1993? the hottest GR got in 1993 was 93 and that was on July 4. I July of 1995 we had a couple of days where it got up to 97 at the Airport and there was a big storm at that time???
SlimJim
Hey Marti B.: I played on that team with you..this may jog your memory who I am……Rock with the flock and Jam with the Lamb.!!!!!!!!!! God Bless.
I have to say I am not suffering too bad even without air, but I would love some rain! The worst part of this heat wave is the lack of any rain during the whole stretch. Hope we get some soon:}}
We are doing ok at our house too but we have an AC window unit in our bedroom. I do feel bad for our dog. She is pretty sad that I won’t keep kicking her ball across the yard over & over for her to chase. As much as I love the heat there are some things you just can’t be doing. Rain would greatly be appreciated in Hastings also.
Are you sure it was 1993? the hottest GR got in 1993 was 93 and that was on July 4. I July of 1995 we had a couple of days where it got up to 97 at the Airport and there was a big storm at that time???
SlimJim
The humidity associated with that 1995 heat wave was disgusting.