FrydayJuly 6th, 2012 at 12:05 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
For most of you, Thursday and Friday (and or the southern part of the state maybe Saturday, too) will be the hottest 2 days that you have ever experienced in the State of Michigan. There’s a good chance that these two days will the be the hottest back-to-back days in Gr. Rapids since 1936. The daily record for today is 100 in 7/6/88 and we’ll probably top that. The chance of rain is not zero, but it is small today and tonight, up to 40% Saturday evening/night.
Model data: The 00Z Friday NAM MOS model forecast high temperatures for Fri./Sat./Sun: Grand Rapids 104/100/84, Kalamazoo and Battle Creek 105/106/86, Holland Regional Airport 100/99/84, Sturgis 102/106/84, Jackson 102/102/83, Coldwater 100/104/85, Lansing 101/95/81, Alma 101/89/81, Benton Harbor 96/96/83, Cadillac 95/78/77, Jackson 102/102/83, Muskegon 96/92/82, S. Haven 95/90/81, Marshall 98/87/81, Marshall 102/100/85. Look at the difference on Saturday from 78 at Cadillac to 100 in G. Rapids. The chance of rain is highest north and least along and south of I-94. The chance of rain is mainly from Cadillac and north Friday night and is highest for the rest of us Saturday night…with the chance at about 60% for Lansing to Mt. Pleasant to Cadillac, but only 30% for Kalamazoo.
NAM Caribou numbers: Grand Rapids 102.9/102.7/86.4, Lansing 101.7/104.2/84.0, Muskegon 98.1/95.7/85.8, Kalamazoo 105.6/104.9/89.2, Mt. Pleasant 98.6/88.0/81.7, Big Rapids 99.5/93.6/83.1, Jackson 103.5, 106.0, 86.9, The model rainfall amounts are mostly for Saturday night and are mostly 1/3rd inch or less.
The GFS model has been running about 5-8 degrees too low on high temperatures. It gives Grand Rapids 97 today and 91 on Saturday. It has the best chance of storms north of US 10 during Saturday PM and south of US 10 Saturday night, and gives most areas about a 40% chance of rain (higher in N. Lower Michigan).
The European model 2 PM temps. for Friday/Saturday (highs would be a 2-4 degrees higher than the 2 PM temp.): Grand Rapids 99/97.9, Kalamazoo 99.3/98.6, Sturgis 98.6/99.5/Big Rapids 96.6/91.8, Cadillac 94.6/82.2 (you can see the cooler air starting to come into Cadillac during Saturday. The Euro. gives G.R. a 2 PM temperature of 82.9 on Sunday. Not much rain…only 0.14″ for G.R. later Sat. night into very early Sunday, .11″ for Kalamazoo, Big Rapids gets 0.3″ Saturday night. Scroll down thru the threads below for more on the heat, some links and some historical data on heat waves. Stay cool everybody…thanks for checking the blog.