Severe Weather Outlook
August 8th, 2012 at 1:59 pm by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
The Slight Risk Area has been adjusted south down into Indiana. I expected this to happen. We’re pretty deep into the cool air. While it’s not impossible that someone (best chc. Indiana border) could see a flash of lightning, most of what we see will be scattered light rain. ALSO: There was a 4.5 magnitude earthquake in Los Angeles Weds. AM.
Well, let’s hope it goes north another 30 miles to DeWitt
I need rain!
Does this mean the rain will be south of us as well?
NO, ALL areas will get a good rain
Looks like it’ll miss most of us again
hmmm… i wonder how this will play out?
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_1730_any.gif
Probably will end up being a big storm in Northern Indiana for like the fourth time this summer. Ain’t no bubble like a West Michigan bubble cuz a West Michigan bubble don’t stop.
Yup – I suppose we will have rain in the morning like Bill forecasted – this big storm will hit at the end of the day.
Brad would have a field day with this post. If Cort S. wasn’t such valuable poster.
LOL nice one Cort
My fault, I brought the bubble back and look go figure I leave the East side and well, need I say more.
Nice Cort! Maybe you should have taken a different career path!!! lol
What’s it look like for the Tigers game tomorrow, it’s at 1pm?
Not good…we could have used a downpour in the 4th inning.
Looks like another dry free day for West Michigan! and BTW I’m moving to ann arbor on friday
Thursday Will NOT be dry !!!
Remember there never was much talk of any severe weather with this storm for Michigan, but just pointed out in the last blog posting that it was inching north on the SPC forecasts, It will be mainly a rain event that will really help some area nicely. eastern lower should see well over an inch to perhaps 1.75 in some spots.
True! I’m excited for the rain and lower temps- I cannot wait to leave the windows open =) FRESH AIR!
Um it has been cooler for about a week now.
“areas”
Think of this as a winter storm with the low, warm front to our south with the cold front trailing south of the low, were going to be in the over running cool part of the storm with moisture thrown back to the northwest of the low. Severe Storms – Not Likely, mainly a cool rain with a east / northeast wind.
Looks to me for kalamazoo county this is the best chance of rain we have had since the rain on the last day of may. That was the last real cool weather we had as well.
I think some areas could see lake effect rain as well if the air is as cool as some predictions.
Lake effect rain? Did you make that up?
Yes, there is such a thing.
Cue: Crosby, Stills, Nash………. COLD RAIN…..
Not going to be that cold jack.
Well on a second glance it may be crappy and chilly through sat now. I hate these fall type rain/wind storms. Especially when they happen in early august.
I knew you would see it My Way…Fixer … P.S. There is hidden meaning in the C.S.N. Song……
looks like thursday morning will see the heaviest axis of rain
A pretty good setup exists tomorrow for waterspouts out on Lake Michigan, so be aware of any spouts.
A little shot of rain this evening and more tomorrow. Sounds good to me.
Amen!
Great I have band camp from 8-5 and tennis from 3-6 (I know, they over lap!)… I guess I won’t have tennis!!!!! Yes! Bill, please tell me it will rain in the afternoon….
Good thing I got my outdoor yard work done and my flock of duck pens cleaned out.
Yes!Some lovely rain for a change.An all day steady rain is a welcome change of pace after this Summers heat and dryness.I just wish it was on the weekend so I didn’t have to work.I’d enjoy a nice rainy Saturday at home,lounging around listening to it,watching it,smelling it,grilling some fresh local veggies on the deck,and maybe a glass or 2 of bubbly with the wife.I never thought I’d miss a steady rain so much as I have this year.
Yes indeed, some rain and nice 70s for temps…a welcome break from this summers dry and hot regime. Let’s bring it!!!
Get ready for another rain bust. GR will probably see less than 1/4 inch of rain.
This time I have to disagree, my shoulder has been absolutely screaming at me and my flock have been just abnoxious the last couple days and today more so, so I am watching their behavior more then my aches. When we had that moderate risk out they were calm and can be, this time, absolutely not so much so they must be sensing something we aren’t or the models
I see the NOAA is saying July was the hottest month on record. Even beating out 1936
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/08/08/dear-noaa-and-seth-which-1930s-were-you-referring-to-when-you-say-july-is-the-record-warmest/#more-68843
Bill, we know what side you are on in the gw debate, but come on what kind of acurate data were they getting in the 1930′s?? I would even say I dont trust data from the 1970′s when it comes to todays computers. Yes we know you say the data used FOR gw is junk, okay but lets face it, 2012 has been a horrible year and whether gw exist or not we need to face the fact that we need to be better prepared for worst droughts, blizzards, hurricanes, tornados, etc. than we are now. NO matter what the cause, weather is kicking our butts and I am tired of the arguements about it. Lets do something about it and quit arguing about the cause.
Thermometers were accurate in the 1930s. Do you get accurate readings from this weather station: http://gallery.surfacestations.org/main.php?g2_view=core.DownloadItem&g2_itemId=12972&g2_serialNumber=2 (Tucson) or http://www.examiner.com/images/blog/EXID11224/images/Flawed_Climate_Stations_Slides.png Note this graphic done by the State Climatologist of California: http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/01/goodridge_1996_ca-uhi_county.jpg You can see the change in urbanized weather stations.
We are not getting more or stronger hurricanes: http://policlimate.com/tropical/global_running_ace.png (the Accumulated Tropical Cyclone Energy chart clearly shows that we have seen a DECREASE in tropical storms since the mid 1990s.
The number of strong to severe tornadoes has also been decreasing: http://blogs.woodtv.com/2012/04/18/no-change-in-of-strong-tornadoes/
Blizzards are not increasing. The drought of 1934: http://geochange.er.usgs.gov/sw/changes/natural/pdsi/pdsi1934.gif was worse than the drought of 2012: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
You can learn more about weather stations here: http://www.surfacestations.org/ and here: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/29/press-release-2/
While the U.S. was warm…globally, it was the coolest July since 2008: http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2012/08/06/global-temperature-report-july-2012-from-the-university-of-alabama-at-huntsville/
Doing something about it? Do you really think that doing cap and trade, or making energy prices “skyrocket” or taxing a gallon of gas to $9 a gallon is going to budge global temperature? or keep us from getting blizzards? or hurricanes? Really?
LOL Here Bill goes again with a barrage of right-wing links, most of which have nothing to do with the topic, temperature.
July 2012 was the hottest of all time. The previous twelve months were the hottest consecutive year in US history. Your blogger buddy, Watts, suggests that ’36 was hotter if you take out a ‘cold’ state? LOL That’s hilarious. And as far as your contaminated weather station propaganda goes, Berkeley disproved that theory.
http://berkeleyearth.org/results-summary/
The funniest part is that the Koch bothers funded Berkeley Earth because they thought a mathematical analysis of the data by the smartest minds would support the deniers’ claims. Turns out it supported what NASA, NOAA, and the EPA have been saying all along. Global Climate Change has begun as a result of Global Warming and is, indeed, MAN MADE!
Muller hasn’t even convinced his OWN TEAM!! LOL!! Here’s what Dr. Judith Curry of Muller’s own BEST group said:
Prof Curry said, the project’s research data show there has been no increase in world temperatures since the end of the Nineties – a fact confirmed by a new analysis that The Mail on Sunday has obtained.
‘There is no scientific basis for saying that warming hasn’t stopped,’ she said. ‘To say that there is detracts from the credibility of the data, which is very unfortunate.’
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2055191/Scientists-said-climate-change-sceptics-proved-wrong-accused-hiding-truth-colleague.html#ixzz235mBaZFs
Globally, it was the coolest July since 2008: http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2012/08/06/global-temperature-report-july-2012-from-the-university-of-alabama-at-huntsville/
NASA data shows the Earth as a whole right at average temperature over the past two months, with the Tropics and S. Hemisphere cooler than average: http://policlimate.com/weather/climo/ncep_cfsr_t2m_60.png
Now this is interesting! Wonder why they don’t use the better sited weather stations…hmmm: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/08/08/an-incovenient-result-july-2012-not-a-record-breaker-according-to-the-new-noaancdc-national-climate-reference-network/
You need to keep your right wing politics out of your blog and your job. I said we need to be better prepared, not raise the price of gas to $9. You have been reading wayyyy too many political ads and need to take a breather and keep it out of your job. We can be better prepared for drought by figuring out how to adjust our water needs, crops etc. We can be better prepared for larger Hurricanes and Tornadoes with earlier warning systems, better plans on how to get people out of the way etc. Whether the past few years, decade etc. have been a cycle of weather, more people in harms way than before or even climate change we need to realize SOMETHING is going on. Ask the farmers this year if they care if its climate change or what, NO they care if they are going to have any money to feed their livestock or themselves come the end of the year. Hence we need to be better prepared. BUT all we want to do is argue, its your fault, no its your fault, oh give me a break! NOBODY posted anything about $9 gas, so get off your right wing bandwagon, keep up the awesome blog, the weather forecasting and keep your global warming opinions out of your job. Like a sportscaster who cant really pull for Uofm even though they went there.
Read the thread, Mike – it has nothing to do with politics. This happens a lot, the threads have nothing to do with climate. The alarmists are used to being unchallenged, but that won’t happen here. When bigDaddy posts that Romney is a polygamist – an outright lie – he’ll be challenged. More people in harm’s way has nothing to do with temperature. It has to do with population growth (more stuff for tornadoes to hit) and with allowing people to build to the water’s edge in hurricane country. Sanibel Island used to be a mosquito-infested, swampy, virtually uninhabited nothingness. Today every square inch has been occupied. We have made great progress in tornado safety. People are informed and the NWS does a very good job with watches and warnings. Despite many more people in the path of tornadoes, the death toll from these storms has decreased.
LOL Bill, you were the one being called out, not me. Brad posted a comment about July being recognized by NOAA as the warmest one ever and in swoops the denier police with yet another litany of unrelated claims and political links. Everyone on the blog knows that NOAA raised the average by .5 degrees to compensate for global warming, therefore calling it average now just means it’s still .5 degrees above the historic average.
Romney wasn’t mentioned, btw, but I’d love to talk his sliding in the polls.
Maue, your policlimate guy is a regular on Limabaugh, so his credibility as a scientist is in question. He’s a political activist, like you.
Curry’s comments are OLD and taken out of context and do not change the current findings of the team she’s on. Follow the link and see what the Koch funded study revealed. LOL
http://berkeleyearth.org/results-summary/
“Below is a joint statement by Judith Curry and Richard Muller (July 2012):
Berkeley Earth released results today that give a new and improved estimate of the global land temperature going back 250 years. In addition to providing a detailed temperature record, the paper, “A New Estimate of the Average Earth Surface Land Temperature Spanning 1753 to 2011” also analyses volcanoes and changes to the diurnal temperature range. Richard Muller and Judith Curry are broadly in agreement over these two findings, which both feel provide a useful contribution to the field.”
LOL BTW, I heard today that the last time we had so many republicans in office was right before the Great Crash of 1929.
At least brad doesn’t lie like you do, bigD (like when you told everyone here on the blog that Romney was a polygamist – he’s not – you lied). Like I said, the Berkeley group can’t even agree amongst the Berkeley team! That’s rich! Read it again:
Prof Curry said, the project’s research data show there has been no increase in world temperatures since the end of the Nineties – a fact confirmed by a new analysis that The Mail on Sunday has obtained.
‘There is no scientific basis for saying that warming hasn’t stopped,’ she said. ‘To say that there is detracts from the credibility of the data, which is very unfortunate.’
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2055191/Scientists-said-climate-change-sceptics-proved-wrong-accused-hiding-truth-colleague.html#ixzz235mBaZFs
These comments aren’t “taken out of context”. I know you’d love to spin them some other way…just like Obama would love to take back his trashing of every small business in the country: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFPzVp3MvFg
Prove that Maue is “a regular” on Limbaugh’s Show. That’s another lie. If he’s a “regular”, he’s had to been on multiple times…prove it…prove he’s been on even twice!…or QUIT LYING!!
While I’m at it…for anyone out there still reading these comments, watch this short video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aEdXrfIMdiU
Your Curry quote IS taken out of context, no spin. AND it’s 9 months old! LOL Feel free to have a look at Curry’s most current work. I posted a joint release from her and Mann above. Try reading their findings and coming to your own conclusion rather than using FOX NEWS bites to create confusion. You’re an unethical man and should be ashamed of yourself.
I’m trying to figure out why you’re bringing the polygamy thing up again. Did you think it helped your argument before because attempting to discredit me with a lie about a lie makes you a double lier. I mean seriously, you call democrats NAZIs, refer to scientists as alarmists, use falsified data to support a position on climate change (not supported by science or your own church) and you call me a lier?! Hilarious.
As far as small businesses go, your man, Snyder, raised taxes on small businesses, the middle class, the elderly, and the working poor while eliminating taxes for 100,000 major corporations. Your party does not support small business. Why in the world would you expect the middle class to support a multimillionaire like Romney who hides his money offshore, exploited the bailouts, shipped jobs overseas, abuses animals and handicapped teachers, and can’t even do something simple like talk about the olympics without sticking his foot in his mouth?
Obama is the only thing that stands between recovery and a return to the Bush recession. A nobel winning economist predicts that Romney’s plan will push us right back into the GOP created recession. Have a look.
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2012/06/05/nobel-winning-economist-predicts-romney-recession/
Oh, and here’s a quote from Maue’s website, Policlimate.
“There are no disclaimers: Andrew inspired me as a warrior for the conservative right. He will be a tornado in heaven.”
Maue refers to himself as a WARRIOR FOR THE CONSERVATIVE RIGHT! LOL Yeah, I’m sure there’s some solid science going on over there. LOL Where do you dig these bought-and-paid-for scientific prostitutes from?
Can’t address the data/facts, so you have nothing left, but insults. Anyone who disagrees with you, you just automatically dismiss and call them names. That’s not how science works, but it’s all you’ve got.
Here’s what 20 economists think of the President (and it’s CNN): http://money.cnn.com/2012/06/25/news/economy/obama-congress-grades/index.htm
In other news: http://amrc.ssec.wisc.edu/news/index.php?id=41
LOL
I guess that means you can’t support your claims (again). I so enjoy blowing the lid off your rightest claims. Try again. Do you really think that viewers won’t read up the thread? LOL Holy smokes.
In other news, Romney chose Ryan. Awesome. That’s just what we need, someone even FARTHER to the right! Ayn Rand is his idol and Dick Cheney says he worships the ground Ryan walks on. I don’t know about you, but a return to Cheney economics sounds like a BAD idea to me.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7zwO88nRH8
For those of you who don’t know about Paul Ryan, watch this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zPxMZ1WdINs
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fDzRFSPglM4
But please watch mine first. The crazy woman these young republicans are trying to emulate will make your skin crawl.
Here’s more from Paul Ryan – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HuC3n5Wx0R4
My cousin is a nurse – she quit one hospital because there was so much fraud (not in Michigan BTW). She couldn’t sign on to it. We need accountability…and honesty – not cheats and liars (like the lie that you told about Romney being a polygamist – you lied).
I have a cousin that’s a waitress. She once saw a cook eat a bread stick off someone’s plate. We need more accountability for line cooks. This act was illegal and immoral, like the constant misrepresentation of data you perpetrate on this blog. We need the government to post someone in that cooking isle to make sure no more bread sticks are stolen. Wait a minute, that’s another layer of government. Bill, are we both suggesting that government needs to grow?
Here’s the person Paul Ryan and Dick Cheney are trying to emulate.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7zwO88nRH8
Ah, another link to Think Progress, funded by multi-billionaire George Soros and run by Faiz Shakir,who is known for trying to build a mosque at Ground Zero. I’ll correct one thing in the video. Jesus said to “Love your neighbor as yourself”. It’s obvious that people do “love” themselves – that’s not a bad thing…but to love your neighbor as much as yourself? Wow. That’s hard. That’s why you see people of faith running charities, soup kitchens – the Red CROSS, the SALVATION Army. Do you know of any soup kitchens run by anyone at Think Progress? Any soup kitchens run by atheists/communists? How about all those hospitals started by atheists/communists?
I’m not real familiar with Ayn Rand. I’d guess that I’d disagree with her on some issues. That’s the case with the people in the video. Paul Ryan is Catholic and would disagree with the atheism of Ayn Rand. Capitalism works and collectivism doesn’t (Cuba, North Korea, the old USSR). Read a history book or look at the world today.
So your argument is that ‘collectivism’ is communism? Our country is a collective and that collective is stronger when it pulls together and shares resources. A good example is social security. Another is public education. Another is medicare. Another is corporate welfare or a police force or an army. Are you now suggesting that Obama is a communist? LOL
Ayn Rand is Paul Ryan’s idol. Here’s what people think of Ryan:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/paul-ryan-pick-is-less-popular-than-palin-cheney-selections-poll-shows/2012/08/13/6577a26a-e557-11e1-8f62-58260e3940a0_blog.html
According to that article you linked to, Romney should have picked John Edwards! LOL!!! The public doesn’t know much about Paul Ryan and polls the day after his pick are meaningless. Look at the difference in crowds:
http://wtaq.com/news/articles/2012/aug/13/vp-candidate-paul-ryan-returns-home-to-about-10000-supporters-in-waukesha/
http://dailycaller.com/2012/08/12/over-10k-greet-romney-and-ryan-in-high-point-nc/
vs. “half-full” fundraiser: http://www.politico.com/politico44/2012/08/obama-camp-attended-half-full-fundraiser-131883.html
and: http://dailycaller.com/2012/08/13/biden-campaigns-before-a-crowd-of-660-in-north-carolina/
O, look! Just while I’m typing this…Ryan’s approval is up to 50% and climbing: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/august_2012/50_now_view_paul_ryan_favorably_43_say_he_was_right_choice
LOL A Rassmussen pole. That’s funny. That guy used to get paid to discredit President Clinton. He’s a GOP stoolie.
Ryan was a huge mistake because now Romney’s going to have to embrace Ryan’s unpopular economic plan. The public does not want to give more money to the rich, Bill. You rich guys make us sick. Here’s a nice article on Ryan and Ayn Rand. He used to give copies of her book out at Christmas and pulled back away from doing that after the Catholic Church scolded him.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/15/opinion/ayn-rand-wouldnt-approve-of-paul-ryan.html
Gallup Poll – Romney up by 2%: http://www.gallup.com/poll/150743/Obama-Romney.aspx
Rasmussen Poll – Romney up by 4%: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
PurplePoll: “In the immediate aftermath of Mitt Romney’s
selection of Paul Ryan as his running mate, the
GOP ticket has drawn even with the Democratic ticket.
Today, Romney and Ryan lead the Obama-Biden
ticket by a point (47% to 46%), an improvement
from July when President Obama led Romney by
2 points, 47% to 45%.” “At 45% to 39%, Paul Ryan is the only member of
either major party ticket who currently has higher
favorables than unfavorables.” http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/PurplePoll_Aug15_Final.pdf
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o1yTY2MciOk
Gallup has a two percent margin of error.
Normally when a candidate names his VP he gets a significant, albeit temporary jump. Ryan added nothing but an unpopular economic plan and Ayn Rand. LOL
Check out the person he’s emulating. She’s nuts!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7zwO88nRH8
He likes John Kennedy, too: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aEdXrfIMdiU
Romney gaining ground with young voters: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aEdXrfIMdiU
Please. He used to hand out Ayn Rand books to everyone at Christmas. A lot of people claim to like Kennedy. The proofs in the pudding and his pudding give tax dollars to rich people.
Kennedy (or any who followed Keynsian economics) would NEVER raise taxes with a weak economy. Just look at the short video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aEdXrfIMdiU You don’t “fix” a bad economy by sucking money away from it to spend on worthless boondoggles: http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2011-09-18/news/ct-met-kass-0918-20110918_1_solyndra-loan-guarantee-obama-fundraisers-obama-white-house and https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/232999754899005440/photo/1/large
Ayn Rand or Bill Ayers: http://keywiki.org/index.php/Bill_Ayers Bill Ayers quote: “”I don’t regret setting bombs,” Bill Ayers said. ”I feel we didn’t do enough.”
I’m guessing most of central and southern Illinois all of Indiana and some of Ohio will be in a moderate risk tommorow slight risk staying south of 94 that’s just my guess better bet in the area is rain
Dat Holland bubble.
So far, nothing but moisture….” It droppeth as the gentle rain from heaven upon the place beneath….and that is fine with me! No wild weather here in NE Indiana.