Lake Michigan Water Levels lake temps. take a dive!
August 10th, 2012 at 11:09 pm by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, News, Weather
Big Red Lighthouse picture from Jack Martin. Wow did the strong north-northeast winds do a number on water temperatures. Here’s what we got Saturday: 49 Grand Haven and Holland, 50 Saugatuck, 55 Ludington. BRRR!! This lake level report was from before the rains that we had Thurs. and Fri. Lake Michigan/Huron was down 2″ in the last month and down 10″ from one year ago. It’s still 9″ above the level of August 1964. Lake Superior is unchanged both in the last month and year-to-year. Lake Erie is down 4″ in the past month and down 13″ from last August. Lake Ontario is down 5″ in the last month and down 11″ year-to-year. Both Lakes Erie and Ontario are 7″ below the century average. These two lakes fluctuate more than the other 3 Great Lakes. Lake Erie was 17″ above average level last Feb. 3rd. Here’s where you can check Michigan river levels. You’ll see some dramatic rises on rivers in parts of S. Lower Michigan. The volume of water in the Rogue River at Rockford tripled on Friday. The Pine River at Midland is interesting. The volume increased 10-fold in less than 24-hours and the level got to nearly twice the previous highest level for any August 10th. It looks like it’s already the 5th highest level ever (66 years of record there) and still climbing.
Good news people. It does not appear to be raining in Wisconsin. That means that Paul Ryan is not getting wet at this hour. Yessss!…..i still kept it weather related. I work directly on Lake Michigan, so i can see a very visible stain on the walls where the lake Level has spent most of its time. Looks like the lake is down about Sixteen inches or so from that (stain) level. The level of the lake directly impacts operations where i work, so we keep very close daily records of its level all the way back to 1972. So thats why this post caught my attention.
What do you do for work on Lake Michigan?
Consumers Energy.
Beautiful day for a few thousand of us here in Holland… Gunnery Sgt. Price RIP
Sad day, nevertheless
Glad that you can show respect to a HERO! Our Military Service Men and Women, as well as out firefighters, policemen, first responders, etc, etc, etc (I know, I’ll leave somebody out) THEY ALL OUR TRUE HEROES! That is very important and it is one of the reasons that this is a GREAT NATION!
oops, I am clearly not awake. The word should read our, not out. It should also read, THEY ALL ARE OUR TRUE HEROES!
Joe Bastardi@BigJoeBastardi
Doesnt mean it cant get hot again, it will try, but that drop in nino 1.2 temps is huge. Also a sign of a cold winter
how many times you gonna post that mike?
Not sure fix. I’d bet at least one more though.
While still way too early to make any calls on how the upcoming winter will play out, I would say that it could be one to keep any eye on. (for a chance of cold and snow)
But then look at what happened last winter.
SlimJim
michael: Didn’t they forecast that for last Winter, also? I’m thinking we may be mild again. Time will certainly tell. It does look like we are in more of an unsettled pattern. I think, we have a warm fall and then we turn cooler for the Winter (Average temps) I could be wrong. That is just a hunch!
Dan, I’m think a cold fall and normal winter temperatures.
So what’s ‘normal’ mean anymore? NOAA defined the ‘new’ normal as .5 degrees warmer than the ‘old’ normal. A ‘Cold’ fall would actually be ‘normal’ historically. lol
Knocking out the 1970s brings our averages closer to the full historic record, since the 1970s were the coldest decade of the last century. Time to go back and read this thread: http://blogs.woodtv.com/2011/01/25/january-temp-by-decade/ The 3-decade period of the 1930s to 1950s was warmer than what we have now. Also check out this graphic: http://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2011/04/statewide_record_high_temperatures1.png The 1930s were the decade of heat. This is nationwide, all the states, not just Michigan.
Oh, please. July was the hottest month since records were first taken and the last twelve were the hottest year ever. You’re grasping at straws, denier. LOL
Only if you use the adjusted “fudged” data. If you use weather stations without siting issues it isn’t even close.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/08/08/an-incovenient-result-july-2012-not-a-record-breaker-according-to-the-new-noaancdc-national-climate-reference-network/
You’re accusing NOAA of fudging the data now. …To what end? …To support their leftist agenda, raise your energy bills, increase taxes, push green appliances? LOL Get real.
Let’s let everyone decide:
July 1934: http://www.real-science.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/ScreenHunter_335-Mar.-15-19.18.jpg
July 1936: http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/08/conus_july_1936_ncdc.png
July 2012: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/national/Statewidetrank/201207-201207.gif
All time state record maximum temperatures by decade: http://www.globalwarming.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/Christy-Number-State-High-Low-Temperatures-Aug-2012.jpg
No comparison – the real extreme heat was in the 1930s. Grand Rapids reached 108 (Newaygo 111) and Grand Rapids had an entire week with an AVERAGE high temperature of 103. The warmest week we had this year was July 1 – 7 and the average high for that week was 98. That’s FIVE DEGREES cooler than the hot week we had in July 1936.
From Dr. Stanley Changnon of the Illinois St. Water Survey: ” “Heat waves today are different than they were a half century ago because they are more frequently accompanied by extreme spikes in humidity,” Changnon said. “I strongly suspect that changes in agricultural methods — particularly in the area of corn production — are playing a major role in this by adding more water vapor to the lower atmosphere of the Upper Midwest.”
All plants transpire, that is, release water vapor into the atmosphere through their leaves. Corn is unique in that it belongs to a family of plants that transpire, or sweat, both day and night. “Stand in any cornfield and you can feel the increased humidity,” Changnon said. We now have higher dewpoints, which raises the minimum temperatures at night. It’s H20 not CO2.
I agree that the difference in land use between the ’30s and now affects how much moisture is in the air. But consider that during this drought when 80%+ of the corn was effected, little or no tranpiration has been taking place.
Also consider that water absorbs heat and therefore masks the effect of climate change. If farming methods hadn’t improved since the ’30s, logic would dictate that this drought would have been much, much worse.
You make my point. Without the usual transpiration, sensible heating was maximized, so we had temperatures approaching (but not reaching) the levels of the mid 1930s (Grand Rapids hottest day, July 6 was still four degrees shy of the maximum of 1936). So even going back to conditions like we would have had in the 1930s, we still can’t get temperatures as warm as they were in the 1930s.
Remember, transpiration (and any man-caused increase in surface moisture – everything from sprinkling to the local car wash) increases dewpoints and hence increases minimum temperatures.
That only makes sense if the land-use issues we had in the ’30s were present today. Are you saying they are because that’s ridiculous. How much land is irrigated today as opposed to then? How many genetically altered crops are drought resistant today as opposed to then? That extra moisture masked the increase in temps and still produced the hottest month in history and hottest twelve month stretch before it.
Land use is certainly a significant factor is raising dewpoints and hence minimum temperatures. So the irrigation causes some of the “warming” (24 states have all-time record high temperatures from the 1930s…not a single state recently). The Urban Heat Island issue is also a significant factor. Weather stations that were in fields and forests in the mid 1930s are sitting by the tarmac at airports today. Siting is an issue: http://surfacestations.org/
Water absorbs energy thus reducing temperature maximums. Water in the air means that temps will not go as high, not the other way around. Water has a very high specific heat value, 1 kcal/kg C. That means it requires a lot of energy to raise it’s temp. It’s a fine heat sink, but what that means is that when the sun goes down it begins releasing that energy, thus raising daily minimums.
The tarmac issue was debunked by the Berkeley study. They removed all of the so-called contaminated sites and the trend was unchanged.
Water raises the dew point, resulting in warmer minimum temperatures. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~jwartman/portfolio/Thesiscolor.html Study shows dewpoints are increasing…a partly to mostly human change (in climate), but unrelated to CO2.
Other studies challenge the Berkeley study.
I just said that, minus the CO2 part. Berkeley has tied warming directly to the increase in CO2. What ‘credible’ studies?
Even better…Dr. Muller at Berkeley is being challenged by his own fellow members of the BEST team! Here’s Dr. Judith Curry: Prof Curry said, the project’s research data show there has been NO increase in world temperatures since the end of the Nineties – a fact confirmed by a new analysis that The Mail on Sunday has obtained.
‘There is no scientific basis for saying that warming hasn’t stopped,’ she said. ‘To say that there is detracts from the credibility of the data, which is very unfortunate.’
Curry wrote that over a year ago before the study was complete. LOL That was before the hottest twelve months in history and the hottest month the US has ever had…INCLUDING THE ’30s.
Will you ever stop lying?
You’re the liar – you said that Romney was a polygamist. He’s not, you lied. It was hotter in the 1930s than it has been this summer. 24 states still have their all-time hottest temperatures from the 1930s…not a single state set an all-time state record this summer: http://www.globalwarming.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/Christy-Number-State-High-Low-Temperatures-Aug-2012.jpg As you can see in the graph, we’re had more state all-time record low temperatures than high temperatures in EVERY decade since the 1960s.
So how in the heck is July now the hottest month on record for the US and June ’11- July ’12 is officially the hottest twelve month stretch? You’re grasping at straws, Magoo. It must be so hard to try to deny global warming in the middle of a drought during the hottest summer in US history. I actually feel sorry for you.
The lake is lower than it’s been here for awhile. The rocks are sticking out of the water more than usual. Also, got about 1/2″ of rain up here last night.
That is true it will not have to get as cold to be below average for the next 10 years so there is a better (easier) chance of seeing some below average months (temp wise) coming up.
SlimJim
Well, I’m sure the lake levels are significantly higher than two days ago!
You have to define what “cold” means for purposes of the discussion. For example, cold could mean 50 degrees when we have had temps in the 90s.
Cold, to me would mean significantly below average temps for a period of time!
i said last month august would be alot cooler and it appears thats what may happen.
It is the 11th day of the month. How can you say the entire month is going to a lot cooler, fixxxer? Looks like temps in the 70s today and back to 80 tomorrow!
August will be a good bit cooler then July was. And we have several more chances of cool periods ahead. Also note yesterday was one of the coldest days we have ever had in August!
SlimJim
You also said last month that long range forecasts were worthless.
Let me get this straight. You predicted that this month would be colder than last month – which was one of, if not the hottest Julys we’ve ever had?
OMG! How did you know??? Look out Bill, Fixxx may be bucking for your job!
Good Day,
Indeed, an interesting point. It could be said that “cold” is rather a relative concept. What is “cold” for someone who lives in the tropics might be considered “hot” for someone from an upper lattitude (Siberia or Northern Alaska for example). Also, it could be relative to a time period as well. The Summer of 1816 may seem cold to us today, but then again it might not have been such a big deal when compared to the Younger Dryas. I think it is also worth noting that we emerged from the last ice age a mere 10,000 years ago. If the history of the Earth were to translated as a 24 hour clock, those 10,000 years would be less than half a second. Although there are studies that indicate the Earth has “cooled” over the past 2,000 years, I think the Earth in many ways is still rebounding from the last Ice Age not only climatically but also geologically.
Steelie
Technically speaking we’re still in an ice age.
http://iceagenow.info/2012/08/rare-snowfall-stuns-johannesburg/
http://iceagenow.info/2012/08/south-wales-records-coldest-august-nights/
http://iceagenow.info/2012/08/coldest-july-parts-ireland-40-years/
http://iceagenow.info/2012/07/snow-oregon-july/
http://iceagenow.info/2012/07/sweden-newborn-reindeer-calves-frozen-death/
http://iceagenow.info/2012/07/temps-peru-death-toll-rises-31/
http://iceagenow.info/2012/07/amsterdam-coldest-summer-25-years/
http://iceagenow.info/2012/07/record-temps-fiji/
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2171434/Satellite-study-Asian-mountains-glaciers-NOT-melting–actually-gaining-new-ice.html
http://iceagenow.info/2012/07/freezing-temperatures-kill-16-chile-year/
http://iceagenow.info/2012/07/whistler-mountain-bc-canada/
http://iceagenow.info/2012/07/argentina-frosts-lead-declaration-agricultural-emergency-disaster/
http://iceagenow.info/2012/06/freak-summer-snowfall-northen-finland/
http://iceagenow.info/2012/06/incredibly-rare-cold-zealand/
http://iceagenow.info/2012/06/south-pole-station-sets-record-low-100-8%C2%B0f/
Now that’s a big fat political pile. LOL Good job, Bill. We’re all convinced of how cold it is. Global warming is a myth perpetrated by Al Gore and the liberals to raise your taxes. Were just not sure why.
Substantive response. Call JoAnne for some help.
Perhaps she could help us both. A list of anomalous cold spots does not global cooling make, sir. Last month was the hottest month the US has ever experienced!!! The last twelve were the hottest year the US has ever experienced!! The second year of this drought has now expanded to 63% of the continental US. How’s that for substance?
Here’s something from your network.
http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/08/08/13182298-july-is-hottest-month-on-record-drought-expands-to-63-percent-of-united-states?lite
Do you even read what you write? I link to a bazillion places all over the world that are much colder than average – Australia, Africa, Alaska, Europe…and you come back with the fact that it was hot in July in the continental U.S. I’ll paraphrase what you said: ” A list of ONE anomalous warm spot does not global warming make, sir. Especially, since the global temperature has been running right at average. The continental U.S. is 2% of the globe and it’s been cooler than average over part of that 2%.
Good article here: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/08/12/nasas-james-hansen-is-just-wrong-proof-that-there-is-no-increased-drought-in-the-usa-tied-to-temperature/ Thanks to Dr. Michaels, past President of the American Assn. of State Climatologists for his work here.
Maybe you should take your own advice. What I wrote was, “a LIST of anomalous cold spots does not global cooling make, sir.” LOL
Here’s an interesting article. We know that last year’s drought cost more than $5 billion and this year’s drought will cost even more. Perhaps it’s time to figure those price tags into an equation that pits alternative energy production against cheaper fossil fuel energy production. We can’t afford to continue to dump CO2 into the air.
“The United States will suffer a series of severe droughts in the next two decades, according to a new study published in the journal Nature Climate Change. Moreover, global warming will play an increasingly important role in their abundance and severity, claims Aiguo Dai, the study’s author.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/climate-models-that-predict-more-droughts-win-further-scientific-support/2012/08/13/cb4e3108-e16f-11e1-ae7f-d2a13e249eb2_story.html
The journal “Nature Climate Change”? You’re kidding? Talk about advocacy! We’ve had droughts before…we’ve had worse droughts before (1956, 1934, 1936).
NOAA and the Texas State Climatologist blamed the Texas Drought on La Nina, not CO2:
“La Nina has visited us 20 times, 19 of those resulting in below normal precipitation, according to Dr. Robert Hoerling, a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration research meteorologist, who served as the lead author of the U.S. Climate Change Science Plan Synthesis and Assessment Report.” “This is not the new normal in terms of drought. Texas knows drought. Texas has been toughened on the anvil of droughts that have come and gone. This is not a climate change drought.” from this article: http://blogs.dallasobserver.com/unfairpark/2011/09/chatting_with_a_noaa_meteorolo.php
This is a direct quote from Dr. John Nielsen-Gammon, the State Climatologist of Texas: “There is no evidence that climate change contributed to the lack of rainfall, because rainfall has risen over the past century in the state.”
In Texas they publicly pray for rain! LOL The journal is a peer-reviewed, scientific publication. I’m sorry you don’t like the title, but in case you hadn’t heard, 98% of the civilized world acknowledges man-made climate change including your church.
http://catholicclimatecovenant.org/
And speaking of Catholics, there’s a nice op-ed piece on Paul Ryan’s love of Ayn Rand here:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/15/opinion/ayn-rand-wouldnt-approve-of-paul-ryan.html
From this website: http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/PurplePoll_Aug15_Final.pdf “At 45% to 39%, Paul Ryan is the only member of either major party ticket who currently has higher favorables than unfavorables.”
In the meantime, Joe Biden continues to put his foot in his mouth.
Biden doesn’t know he’s in Virginia: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UhdUBDUfZLY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l2VNETZzxp8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DUcs2z1eoYY
Three major bloopers in one week!!!
I listened to Biden speak last night. He might screw up on names and places but he was right about one thing, Ryan’s plan is neither bold nor new. It isn’t bold to give more money to the rich and it isn’t new either. He and Obama are still cleaning up the mess from that last GOP go-round.
You listened to Biden? Probably the most exciting part of your day! Yeah, he does screw up. Neither you nor Biden have a plan to deal with the deficits. Reid won’t even come up with a budget. You’re bereft of ideas. Reid and Biden have had four years…unemployment is going up (up to 8.3% last month), the deficits are going way up. The government is losing 25 BILLION on GM – that’s roughly $83 PER PERSON in the U.S. And how many Volts have we sold? http://money.cnn.com/2012/03/05/autos/volt_sales_analysis/index.htm The average buyer of a Volt has an income over $165,000/year…so the Federal subsidy is just another subsidy for the rich…like the bankrupt crony solar companies: https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/232999754899005440/photo/1/large
It hasn’t been four years yet. Biden is actually entertaining to listen to. If you took the time, rather than listening to slanted FOX NEWS sound bites, you might change your opinion. The democrats are not ‘bereft of ideas,’ but they do not include throwing more money at rich people. As you and the entire country knows, that didn’t work last time. Our GDP is higher than its ever been yet the big companies are not hiring people back. Throwing more money at them won’t change that, Bill.
Here’s a graphic I didn’t attach. Guess what the little hickup at the top is? …Bush
http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=ny_gdp_mktp_cd&idim=country:USA&dl=en&hl=en&q=gdp
Here’s GDP growth: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth An anemic 1.5%. Unemployment is UP to 8.3% and up in 44 out of 50 states: http://www.upi.com/Business_News/2012/08/17/44-states-report-unemployment-up/UPI-70011345238242/ and the debt is skyrocketing: http://theblackberryalarmclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/bush_deficit_vs_obama_deficit_in_pictures_2.jpg It’s not a pretty picture.
So THIS is the answer????
http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20120822/OPINION03/208220310/1008/OPINION01/Paul-Ryan-s-addition-concern-teachers
Throwing more money at billionaires and oil companies will NOT help create jobs, Rich Guy.
You have no idea how to create jobs. Reagan did. Unemployment dropped by half under his leadership. Keynesian economics says you don’t raise taxes in a weak economy. John Kennedy knew that: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_AAEp0J_hzU
The Congressional Budget Office says we’re headed toward a “fiscal cliff”. Confiscating more money from the economy and spending it on boondoggles like this: http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2011-09-18/news/ct-met-kass-0918-20110918_1_solyndra-loan-guarantee-obama-fundraisers-obama-white-house is a recipe for disaster. What we are doing now isn’t working. Unemployment was UP in July. The CBO says we’re headed back toward 9% unemployment. Listen to the clip from John Kennedy.
I guess you haven’t actually read Romney’s plan then. He wants to raise taxes on the middle class to provide tax breaks for millionaires and corporations. You’re absolutely right, that would be pure folly.
Does the lower lake levels mean lower chances of lake affect this winter further inland?
No, the surface area of the lake is unchanged.
Good Day,
I think there are a few ways to look at this. First of all, if there is more water, you have the potential for the lake to absorb and retain more energy/heat depending on how warm of a Summer we have and how warm the lake gets. Think about it this way… which will freeze first at say 25* abient temp – a shot glass full of water or a gallon jug? Then it starts to get more complicated in terms of atmospheric conditions. If we have relatively dry air flowing over the lake, our chances for LES are less than if we have a more supportive system with sufficient humidity and cold enough temps.
Steelie
can we get some mid-80′s back please bill?
I think we have a good chance of seeing more low to mid 80′s for the next month or so. Then after that??? well you know its fall by then and there will be more and more cooler days as we head deeper into fall.
SlimJim
Good Day,
Indeed Jim. We are past our peak in terms of average high temps and are gradually heading toward Fall and cooler temps. Although I do see a high of 85* predicted for next Thursday, those days are becoming numbered at best…
Steelie
Good Day,
fixxxer says:
March 9, 2011 at 5:15 pm
i think spring may be delayed this year. still not seeing any big warm up coming, it sucks!
Just teasing Fix, just teasing…
It sure got hot this Summer!
Steelie
Good Day,
Not to be a downer… but boy these clouds today remind me of an October kind of day…
Steelie
WHAT UP WITH THAT ??????
Good Day,
Hey Jack! You know… those sort of low hanging dark clouds…
Steelie
Good Day,
Near Breton and 52nd… Huh, just had a very light 2 minute-ish rain shower pass overhead.
Steelie