Typhoon Sanba
September 13th, 2012 at 4:52 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
(click the graphic to enlarge) A major typhoon, called Sanba, looks like it’ll plow into South Korea. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has Sanba ramping up to 140 knots (161 mph!), putting it into the “Super Typhoon” category. Check out the radar from Korea and Japan. Here’s the forecast discussion, the visible satellite the water vapor image, the infrared image (which is black and white and not red), heaviest rainfall, and South Korea weather observations. Typhoons that move north and then northeast in the Western Pacific can change the upper level wind pattern…creating a trough south of Alaska, a ridge over the Western U.S. (where it gets quite warm) and then a trough over the Great Lakes/Northeast. I think Sanba will do that, and that’ll mean a more general cool pattern for Michigan. We’ll be cooler than average for the middle of next week and beyond. Check out the trough the GFS has for the weekend of the 22nd-23rd. Here’s two more signs of a cool down on the way: The Arctic Oscillation goes negative…and the North Atlantic Oscillation goes negative.
With Arctic Oscillatation going negative and North Atlantic going negative, what does this mean for the Fall and Winter. HOPING FOR A WINTER LIKE LAST YEAR!!
The GFS loves to tease us about a chance of snow 8 days out from here on out =)
your not going to get any snow in september. im not seeing any temps below the mid 60′s.
It has already been 40′s…
Your not going to get any snow just yet. I see no mention of it at all.
No type of precipitation ever falls at your home anyway, don’t worry.
Ahh, looks like its time to breakout the light sweatshirt for work next week. Always a lot easier to stay warm then it is to try to get cool when one works outdoors for a living.
Really??? Funny I work outside and for me its hard either way. (to stay warm or cool)
SlimJim
AGREED, Daniel!!
Reference: cool-down. Yup. Ouch.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif
Yeah because we all know how accurate these are.
Right, just like how these 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks showed an 80-90% chance of above-normal temperatures in the middle of March. We all know how that turned out.
I wrote a response detailing why this cool-down to below-normal temperatures next week (which Bill talks about in this blog entry) is a relatively high-confidence expectation. It had links to neat websites and used critical thinking and statistical reasoning, but it was really patronizing, like, even more than this one. And since I know you dismiss “data” and everything it’s used for, it wouldn’t matter to you anyway. Maybe you don’t deserve the long-range seasonal forecasts (“junk science”) that you keep asking Bill for.
Mot saying it would happen but just think if October was as far below average as March was above!
SlimJim
Whoops that should be not, not mot.
SlimJim
Bet you $10 welfare bucks fix. September 20-25 below normal at GRR. Bring it!
Mmmmm…. that looks awesome to me
However – here’s my forecast for this winter: cold, blustery, and 16″ of snow for the season. Why? We just bought a snowmobile. Murphy’s Law. My sincere apologies to my fellow sledders….
Thanks Deb, We will appreciate you for little bit of snow we may receive. I was going to buy a new snow blower for the same reason, now I may not have to (well I still may buy one just in case your purchase dose not work) LOL
SlimJim
My husband bought a new snow plow last fall so he’s to blame for last winter.
It has been nice havin a few overcasted but warm nights the past few days. It has been 24-28 at night. I wonder if the panhandle with get the worst due to places like Kodiak hardly any wind in the 10 day forcast????
Bill just said 1/4 in of rain or less what a joke,another rain system gone to heck.
My sister is in Hikone, Japan…hope she is safe from this!
And my son in Kunsan, South Korea as well. Please keep covering this storm for those of us who have loved ones in the area.
The good thing about Korea (and Japan) is that it’s mountainous – if he needs to get to higher ground due to flooding, it’s close by.
Okay science lovers, the Farmer’s Almanac called for snow on the 23rd and 24th of September. Bill, or someone like him, pointed that out in June or July. Just saying………..
Not impossible, but very unlikely.
For all of you climate hysterics, take four minutes to read this and then explain why you call the rest of us “deniers”, as if that was a four letter word.
http://patriotpost.us/opinion/14736
While I haven’t see the Farmer’s Almanac I loved it as a kid and if they did say snow on the 23rd or 24th it could be a close call as I can see 40s for highs so perhaps a snowfake at night ???? again not likely but what good time as it looks like will be very very chilly then.
oops timing
Bill, the NAO looks like a rough proxy for N. hemisphere temps..
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/87/Winter-NAO-Index.svg/300px-Winter-NAO-Index.svg.png
The 60′s were a prelude to the 70′s cold. The 80′s were a prelude to the 90′s heat. Huh.
Storm Rainfall Amounts From MAC Weather Stations
Brown City 0.68
Marlette 0.63
Lansing 0.63
London Ont. 0.42
Blissfield 0.41
Jasper 0.38
Tupperville Ont 0.32
Breckenridge 0.21
Middleton 0.16
Newaygo 0.09
I have a friend getting married on Oct. 6. Any weather predictions for that day?
Too far away to predict the actual weather, so feel free to check back in two weeks. But here are the averages for October 6:
Average high: 64
Average low: 45