Frost Advisory Entire AreaSeptember 23rd, 2012 at 5:40 pm by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
There is a Frost Advisory in effect for tonight/early Monday for all of Lower Michigan, with the exception of Benzie, Leelanau, Emmet, Charlevoix and Antrim Counties. Check out the National Warning Map and you’ll see there are Frost Advisories for all of Indiana, all of Illinois except for Chicago, Eastern Wisconsin, most of Ohio and all the way south to SE Missouri and the Smoky Mountains. The NAM model gives G.R. a low of 35 tonight, a high of 66 on Monday and 74 on Tuesday. The NAM Caribou gives G.R. a low of 40 tonight with 50 at Lake Michigan and 34 in Lansing and Big Rapids and 32.7 in Mt. Pleasant. The GFS gives G.R. 39 tonight, 62 on Monday and 71 on Tuesday. So the best bet for frost will be in areas east of US 131 and north of I-96. This should be the last rather general frost threat for the rest of the week. Gale Warnings will be in effect Monday afternoon and Monday night for “significant waves of 8-12 feet” and winds up to 34 to 47 knots (gusts up to 54 mph). It’s going to get windy Monday PM. The NAM Caribou takes the wind in G.R. to 22 mph Monday afternoon, the GFS goes to 24 mph and the NAM to 25 mph…so it’s going to be windy Monday midday – Monday night. The European model is dry for all the rest of this week. The GFS would give us a chance of a shower on Friday. It looks like a dry and partly to mostly sunny week with temperatures returning to near normal. Average high temperatures for this coming week are in the upper 60s. Through Sunday G.R. is 0.3 degrees warmer than average for Sept. and the cool air tonight should take us back to average. Much of West Michigan (inc. G.R.) has had a trace of rain on each of the last 7 days. During the past week, Grand Rapids has picked up just 1/2″ of rain. However, Holland has had 1.99″ of rain in the past week (four times what G.R. has had). Kalamazoo has picked up 1.37″ in the past week.
Here’s the average date of the first fall freeze: Sept. 25 Hesperia and Big Rapids…Sept. 28 Newaygo…Sept. 30 Greenville…Oct. 4 Ludington…Oct. 7 Battle Creek and Jackson…Oct. 8 Grand Rapids…Oct. 11 Muskegon…Oct. 18 Grand Haven lakeshore and S. Haven lakeshore.